Tuesday, January 17, 2017
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.9 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 13.2 secs from 311 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 3.8 ft @ 13.8 secs from 259 degrees. Wind east 4-6 kts. Water temperature 59.0 degs. At Ventura swell was 2.0 ft @ 13.3 secs from 269 degrees. At Santa Monica swell was 2.7 ft @ 14.8 secs from 256 degrees. At Camp Pendleton swell was 2.0 ft @ 15.8 secs from 246 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma swell was 3.0 ft @ 14.8 secs from 276 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.7 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 12.1 secs from 281 degrees. Wind northeast 2-4 kts at the buoy. Water temp 54.9 degs.
46006, 46059, New! Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (at the bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (1/17) in North and Central CA Japan-Dateline swell was fading but still producing waves in the 1 ft overhead range at top spots and clean with light offshore winds. At Santa Cruz surf was head high or maybe a little more and clean and lined up. In Southern California up north surf was chest high with some bigger sets and reasonably clean and lined up but slow. In North Orange Co surf was waist to chest high and textured chopped from southerly breeze. In San Diego surf was head high and lined up and clean but overpowering most beach breaks. Hawaii's North Shore was getting leftovers from the dateline with waves head high and clean and lined up. The South Shore was flat and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh high and heavily textured from modest east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
Swell from a storm that developed off Japan and tracked to over the Dateline Mon-Thurs (1/12) with seas to 39-44 ft was all but gone in Hawaii and fading in California. A weaker gale developed off Japan Sat (1/14) with seas building to 29 ft on Sunday, then redeveloped while tracking to the dateline Mon-Tues (1/17) with seas to 37 ft. From there it is to track towards California Wed-Thurs (1/19) with seas in the 33 ft range. Swell for Hawaii is expected and then pushing into CA. And a new strong system is to develop in the Gulf on Thurs (1/19) peaking just off North CA on Fri AM (1/20) with seas to 44 ft. Large raw swell to possibly result for North and Central CA. And another system is forecast building off Japan starting Sat (1/21) with seas to 38 ft aimed east then lifting northeast Sun (1/22) while moving over the dateline with seas to 33 ft and expanding in coverage eventually tracking into the Gulf of Alaska into Tues (1/24) with seas to 34 ft. And yet another storm is forecast behind that approaching the dateline Tues (1/25) with 39 ft seas aimed east. The North Pacific is starting to move in the right direction.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Tuesday AM (1/17) the jetstream was well consolidated tracking flat east off Japan with winds to 200 kts on the dateline and reaching east to a point 1200 nmiles west of San Francisco while building east more. No .cgiit flow remained anywhere over the North Pacific. No well defined troughs were present in the flow but a dip was developing half way between Japan and the dateline. Regardless, the jet in and of itself was well capable of supporting gale development. Over the next 72 hours this pattern is to get more entrenched with 180-190 kts winds building from the dateline east into the Central Gulf with a trough starting to form later Wed (1/18) just off North California and very supportive of storm development, with the trough pushing inland over Central CA on Thurs-Fri (1/20) making for much weather there. And on Fri (1/20) a weakness in the flow is to develop on the dateline with a .cgiit almost forming there. But west of there 180 kts winds are to be building pushing east off Japan. Beyond 72 hours on Sun (1/22) 180 kt winds are to be pushing consolidated off Japan over the dateline with a trough north of it, attributable to the little .cgiit in the jet, offering good support for gale development. And another trough is to set up in the Eastern Gulf off the leading edge of the .cgiit also supporting gale development. By Tues (1/24) the Dateline trough is to move east and be building fed by 210 kt winds tracking over the dateline. Great support for gale development. A very productive pattern looks to be setting up.
On Tuesday (1/17) swell from a solid gale that tracked from off Japan over the Dateline was fading in California (see Japan-Dateline Gale below). Swell from a weaker system is behind it (see Japan-Dateline Gale #2 below). Also swell from a weak gale in the Gulf was pushing towards CA (see Gulf Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours a strong local storm is forecast just off North California (see Possible Storm #9 below).
Possible Storm #9 (Property Alert)
A strong local storm remains forecast to develop in the Western Gulf starting Wed PM (1/18) with 40 kt west winds developing and getting traction on an already agitated ocean surface building to 27 ft at 37N 168W. It is to move into the Central Gulf on Thurs AM (1/19) with 45-50 kt northwest winds building while falling southeast with seas 35 ft over a small area at 42N 157W. In the evening 45-50 kt northwest winds are to be over a building area and getting good traction on the oceans surface with seas on the increase to 37 ft at 41N 146W. On Fri AM (1/19) 45-50 kt northwest winds to be building in coverage just off North CA with 42 ft seas in the Eastern Gulf off Cape Mendocino at 41N 139W building to 44 ft at 10 AM at 42N 136W (660 nmiles from San Francisco). The storm is to hold off the North CA-Oregon border in the evening while fading with winds down to 45 kts and seas fading from 42 ft over a solid area at 41N 133W aimed directly at North and Central CA. The gale is to move onshore Sat AM (1/21) with 30 ft seas impacting from South Oregon down to Monterey Bay. Large raw swell is possible. Ocean front land owners should take action to secure property now.
North CA: Rough data for.cgianning purposes: Expect swell arrival Sat AM (1/21) at 22 ft @ 17-18 secs (38 ft) from 292 degrees
A more powerful gale started to develop just off Japan on Sun PM (1/9) producing a small area of 50-55 kt west winds and seas 30 ft at 33N 145E aimed east. On Mon AM (1/9) 50 kt northwest fetch persisted with seas building to 35 ft over a tiny area at 35N 150E. The storm continued east in the evening and built with 55-60 kt northwest winds and seas to 40 ft at 37N 155E (301 degs HI, 299 degs NCal). The storm faded slightly while tracking east on Tues AM (1/10) with 55 kt northwest winds and 44 ft seas at 38N 159E (305 degs HI, 297 degs NCal). In the evening the fetch tracked east and fades some down to 45 kts from the northwest with seas from previous fetch fading at 37 ft at 38N 165E (307 degs HI, 295 degs NCal). The gale fell southeast on Wed AM (1/11) with winds building to 45 kts and seas rebuilding to 39 ft at 38N 172E (310 degs HI, 293 degs NCal). In the evening 45 kt west fetch continued tracking east with 40 ft seas at 35.5N 180W (311 degs HI, 285 degs NCal). Thurs AM (1/12) the gale started fading north-northwest of Hawaii with 40 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 35N 172W (319 degs HI, 281 degs NCal). The gale lifted northeast into the Western Gulf in the evening with winds fading from 40 kts and seas fading from 27 ft at 40N 166W (287 degs NCal). On Fri AM (1/13) fetch was fading from 35 kt from the west in the Gulf with seas fading from 25 ft at 44N 160W (295 degs NCal).
Southern CA: Residuals fading Wed AM (1/18) from 2.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell maddeningly inconsistent. Swell Direction: 290-300 degrees
Japan-Dateline Gale #2
Another gale started developing just off Japan Sat AM (1/14) with winds 35 kt from the west and seas building from 20 ft at 32N 153E. Fetch expanded in coverage in the evening from the west at 35-40 kts with seas building to 27 ft at 31N 153E aimed east but of no real interest yet. On Sun AM (1/15) 35-40 kt west winds were covering a moderate area west of the dateline with seas 28 ft at 32N 161E tracking east. More of the same occurred in the evening with 35-40 kt winds and 30 ft seas over a small area at 32N 165E. On Monday AM (1/16) the gale started fading with west winds in the original fetch but a new fetch of 40 kt west winds building just north of it approaching the dateline with seas in the original fetch at 28 ft at 32N 173E and 35 ft seas in the new fetch up at 38N 173E. The new fetch took over in the evening while crossing the dateline with winds 45 kts from the west and seas to 36 ft at 37N 180W. On Tues AM (1/17) west fetch was still at 40 kts tracking east with 34 ft seas at 36N 172W targeting Hawaii well but also taking aim on the US West Coast. The gale is to lift northeast in the evening and rebuilding with winds 45 kt from the northwest in the Central Gulf with seas 33 ft at 39N 163W targeting mainly the US West Coast. The gale is track east in the Eastern Gulf on Wed AM (1/18) with 40-45 kt northwest over a solid area and 32 ft seas at 41N 152W. In the evening residual 40 kt northwest fetch is to be just 600 nmiles off Central CA with seas 29-30 ft at 40N 140W. The gale is to move inland over Central CA Thurs AM (1/19) with nearly 20 ft seas impacting the coast there. Some swell for Hawaii likely with raw swell possible for California. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival at Wed afternoon (1/18) pushing 7.3 ft @ 17-18 secs late (12.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs AM (1/19) from 7.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (10.5 ft). Swell Direction: 312 degrees
North CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Thurs (1/19) building to 9 ft @ 17-18 secs (15 ft) and buried in locally generated lesser period energy. Swell Direction: 285 degrees
A small storm developed in the Gulf on Sun AM (1/15) producing 50 kt west winds over a small area aimed east and seas building to 27 ft at 43N 155W. This storm lifted rapidly northeast in the evening while fading to 45 kts with seas building to 34 ft over a small area at 46N 148W. This system moved into North Canada on Monday. Swell expected for Central Ca northward.
North CA: Expect swell arrival at sunset on Tues (1/17) building to 3.6 ft @ 16 secs (5.5 ft). Swell building overnight and 7.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (9.5 ft) Wed AM (1/18t) with more local energy starting to arrive later. Swell Direction: 300 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday AM (1/17) the last of the nice weather was over California with light winds along the coast and filtered sunshine in effect. A front was building off the coast and is to start impacting Cape Mendocino late afternoon with up to 35 kt south winds. Rain starts building later Tuesday for extreme North CA down to Pt Arena in the evening. Wednesday (1/18) the front starts pushing southeast with south winds reaching Pismo Beach late afternoon and up to 30 kts with light rain down to San Francisco mid-day, and heavy precip for the North Coast reaching Monterey bay and Big Sur late. Mixed light precip for Tahoe early turning to snow by 1 PM and dumping solid through the evening with 20- 24 inches of accumulation possible for resorts on the crest and 16 inches for Mammoth. Thursday a light westerly flow is forecast at 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA with south winds 20 kts for Southern CA early turning northwest later in the day. Rain fading along the coast through the day except continuing for Southern CA fading only after sunset. Snow for all the Sierra at lower elevations fading by sunset with 2 inches of accumulation. A stronger front impacts the coast Fri AM with 25-30 kt south winds and reaching San Diego late morning. Rain through the day down to San Diego. Solid snow for all the Sierra starting at Tahoe at 1 AM continuing through day tapering off overnight with 10-12 inches of accumulation through 4 PM Fri with overnight. Saturday AM (1/21) brisk northwest winds are forecast at 25 kts early fading for North and Central CA late afternoon and starting to turn south and up to 30 kts early for Southern CA and fading only incrementally. Light rain fading early for North and Central CA. A dusting of snow early for all the Sierra. Another low is forecast impacting North California Sat PM reaching San Francisco Sun AM (1/22) with south winds 35+ kts reaching to Pt Conception at sunset (south winds 20 kts) and pushing south but dissipating from there. Rain pushing south from San Francisco 10 PM Sat to sunrise Sunday at Pt Conception and San Diego after sunset. Snow building in Tahoe before sunrise Sunday getting very heavy midday holding into early evening pushing into Mammoth. Monday (1/24) high pressure is to try and build in with northwest winds 15 kts early for North and Central CA building to 25 kts from Big Sur southward and pushing into Southern CA later. Rain fading from Monterey Bay southward but not gone in San Diego till after sunset. On Tues (1/24) high pressure is to ridge inland over Oregon with north winds fading to the 10-15 kt range and maybe somewhat offshore for some locations. Light rain limited to area north of Pt Arena. Total accumulations for resorts on the crest at Tahoe to 64 inches and 70-74 inches for Mammoth.
No swell producing fetch of interest is occurring or forecast.
A solid storm tracked through the South Tasman Sea on Sat AM (1/14) from just south of Tasmania over Southern New Zealand Sun AM (1/15) with 45 kt southwest winds producing 36 ft seas traversing the 50S latitude line in the Fiji swell window. Possible small filtered background swell for Hawaii.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Another storm is forecast developing off Japan on Fri PM (1/20) with 55 kt northwest winds and seas building from 26 ft. On Sat AM (1/21) 50 kt west winds to be easing east with 36 ft seas at 33N 153E. In the evening fetch is to be building in coverage at 45-50 kts while moving east with seas building to 38 ft at 34N 162E. The gale is to track east to the dateline on Sun AM (1/22) with 45 kt northwest winds on the dateline over a smallish area and 33 ft seas at 35N 174E. The gale is to lift northeast some in the evening with winds down to 40-45 kts from the west and 35 ft seas over a solid area at roughly 38N 175W. 40 kt west winds to continue east on Mon AM (1/23) into the Western Gulf with 34 ft seas at 40N 170W. More of the same is forecast in the evening with 34 ft seas over a broad area at 44N 162W. Fetch is to be fading Tues AM (1/24) from 40 kts in the Northern Gulf with seas dropping from 32 ft at 43N 154W. Something to monitor.
And yet another gale is forecast developing off Japan on Mon PM with 45 kt west winds and starting to get traction on the oceans surface. By Tues AM (1/24) 45 kt west winds to be building approaching the dateline with 36 ft seas building at 41N 161E targeting Hawaii and the US West Coast. This fetch is to track east at 45 kts with seas building to 39 ft at 40N 170E. Yet more swell is likely.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
More details to follow...
La Nina is Gone in the Ocean - Atmosphere Still Holding the Pattern
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equatorial Pacific it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slack if not an outright reversal of trade winds and enhanced precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the.cgianet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to .cgiit resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward di.cgiaced and generally weak. And by early 2017, it appears to be fading.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Monday (1/16) east winds were over the entire equatorial Pacific including the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. The KWGA is on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south. Anomalies were weak over the equatorial East Pacific and moderate easterly on the dateline to 160E, then fading to calm into the western KWGA. East anomalies over the KWGA when they exist are attributable to La Nina being modulated by the MJO (a.cgiified during the Inactive Phase, weakened during the Active Phase).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): Moderate west anomalies were modeled over the western KWGA (West Pacific east to 160E) with weak east anomalies east of there in the Eastern KWGA (dateline). The forecast suggests east anomalies weakening some but migrating into the West Pacific starting tomorrow (1/18) holding through the end of the forecast (1/24) suggesting the development of the Inactive Phase of the MJO or migrations of a Rossby Wave. The first real easterly wind burst from this La Nina started on 9/23 and continued into 12/13, then started oscillating beyond. Easterly anomalies have been consistent, pulsing stronger at times, then weaker, attributable to La Nina and modulated by the MJO.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: As of 1/16 a weak Active Phase was present over the dateline. The statistic model projects it fading for 5 days then dissipating with a weak Inactive Phase moving over the West Pacific 15 days out. The dynamic model depicts the same thing with the Active Phase over the dateline but out to 10 days, but with the Inactive Phase developing fairly strong in the West Pacific 5 days out moving east and dissipating 15 days out with a neutral pattern taking hold.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (1/17) The ECMF model indicates the Active Phase of the MJO is weak and barely discernible over North Africa and forecast to start moving east and building strongly in the Eastern Indian Ocean 1 week out then fading some 1 week beyond. The GEFS model depicts about the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model: (1/17) This model depicts a moderate Inactive signal is developing over the dateline. The Inactive Phase is to build while tracking east reaching Central America 2/11. A weak Active Phase is to be building over the West Pacific 2/11 tracking east to the dateline on 2/26. All the above data suggests the Inactive Phase is getting ready to take control. This model runs about 2 weeks ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (1/15) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was in control over the dateline today with modest east anomalies from La Nina and a Rossby Wave fading some on the dateline and points east of there. The Inactive Phase is to take control for a short window 1/25-2/10, then the Active Phase returning 2/11-3/6 with weak west anomalies in the for West Pacific. A neutral pattern is to follow with west anomalies slowly getting more traction over the dateline region from late March on. The MJO is very weak and having little influence on winds in the KWGA, which are dictated more by La Nina. But with it fading, a more normal MJO/wind pattern should take hold in Spring. La Nina is having the effect of dampening the MJO, and producing weak east anomalies over the dateline but not producing an outright bias towards the Inactive Phase of the MJO. Likewise the MJO is serving to dampen the effects of La Nina when in the Active Phase.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/17) Actual temperatures remain stratified with warm water in the West Pacific at 30+ degs C (reaching east to 165E) and the 28 deg isotherm line reaching to 177W and steep, suggesting a hard break between warm water in the west and cool water in the east at depth. This is expected with La Nina in.cgiay. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +1-2 degs rule from the West Pacific to 180W. Neutral anomalies are east of there to Ecuador with a pocket of less than -1.0 deg anomalies over a shallow area at 140W to the dateline. This indicates that La nina is gone from the ocean at depth. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/13 depicts 2 pocket of of cooler water to -1.0 degs in the East Pacific with neutral water around them. La Nina has lost control of the ocean at depth with remaining negative anomalies weakening and getting shallower.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/13) Negative anomalies at -5.0 cm with 3 small pockets to -10 cm control portions of the equatorial Pacific mainly from 110W to 140W and 5 degs north and south. Slowly sea levels are rising with La Nina loosing it's grip at depth.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (1/16) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a very thin cool pool of water along the immediate coast of Peru but locked from migrating anywhere. Warmer water is dominating the region extending from Southern Chile north to Panama extending west over the Galapagos reaching to 120W. A pocket of cool water extends southeast off Costa Rica and Southern Mexico but dissipates 2 degs north of the equator. La Nina is gone in the East Pacific and fading in the Central Pacific. It appears that La Nina is all but gone.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/16): A significant warming trend is occurring along Chile, Peru Ecuador out to the Galapagos extending west to 145W. In any other year one would wonder if El nino was developing. The trend is neutral west of there on the equator.
Hi-res Overview: (1/16) There is no signs of La Nina cool waters from Ecuador to 125W. The only remnants are from 140W-170E and even those appear to be in collapse. La Nina is loosing coverage quickly.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/17) Today's temps were steady at +0.595.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (1/17) temps were rising at -0.056 or effectively neutral. Temps are oscillating warm to cool and back in 2-3 week cycles within a range from -0.0 to -0.5 degs.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (1/17) This model suggests La Nina developed from June thru Oct in the -0.55 deg range then started rising to -0.5 on Nov 1 up to -0.2 degs on Dec 1 and neutral on Jan 5. The forecast has temps gently rising to to +0.35 degs in March holding in the range into July, then building to +0.5 degs and holding into Sept bordering on minimal El Nino. This indicates that La Nina is effectively over and a return to normal temps is expected in Spring. The change in the atmosphere will be slower.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Dec Plume depicts temps are warming and are now at -0.3 degs. A slow increase in temps is forecast thereafter to neutral 0.0 in March 2017 warming to +0.2 degs in May and holding into the Fall. This is warmer than last months forecast and suggests La Nina is over. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Deco.cgiing (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (1/17): The daily index was steady at -6.78 and has been negative for 6 readings now. The 30 day average was falling at +6.05 and has been falling for 2 days. The 90 day average was at 0.74 falling for 4 days. All this suggests the Active Phase of the MJO was trying to get a foot in the door, and that La Nina was weak.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (1/17) Today's value was falling at -0.92. A peak low was reached on 11/2 at -1.94 the deepest it had been so far in this event suggesting La Nina was getting better established. But that has backed off, with it trending generally upwards (a better direction) and suggesting La Nina is fading.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO continues positive, though much weaker lately (as expected with La Nina setting in).
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec) are: +0.79, +1.23, +1.55, +1.59, +1.42, +0.76, +0.12 then falling to -0.87, -1.06 and -0.70 in Oct. But in Nov, it was up to +0.80 and +0.45 in Dec. This looks much like the warm phase of the PDO.
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec) are: +1.53, +1.75, +2.40, +2.62, +2.35, +2.03, +1.25 +0.52, +0.45, +0.56, +1.88 and +1.17 in Dec.
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive since other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina. Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table