Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 17.9 secs from 297 degrees. Water temp 77.2 degs (Barbers Pt), NA (Lani 239), 76.6 (Pearl Harbor 233).
Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 7.6 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 5.9 ft @ 17.0 secs from 307 degrees. Water temp 76.3 degs.
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 5.3 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 4.4 ft @ 6.3 secs from 272 degrees. Wind northwest at 18-21 kts. Water temperature 58.6 degs, 60.1 (Topanga 103), 59.4 degs (Long Beach 215), 59.2 (Del Mar 153), 59.5 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 9.1 ft @ 8.4 secs from 318 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 3.3 ft @ 6.1 secs from 272 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.0 secs from 210 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.3 ft @ 13.2 secs from 199 degrees. Water temp 61.0 degs.
Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 12.7 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 10.8 ft @ 8.6 secs from 315 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was north at 25-35 kts. Water temp 52.2 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.6 (46026), NA (SF Bar 142), and NA (Santa Cruz 254).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (2/15) North and Central CA had set waves at 1-2 ft overhead at top spots and tattered from strong northwest wind and not rideable. Protected breaks were head high plus and warbled and chopped and mushed and a mess. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high or so and clean and lined up but with a little sideshore warbled in it and soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high on the sets and trashed from strong northwest winds and not really rideable. Central Orange County had sets to near head high and lined up but pretty warbled and sectioney from south wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were thigh to waist high and pretty warbled and mixed up and not rideable from onshore wind. North San Diego was thigh high and warbled and mush with small whitecaps from onshore wind. Hawaii's North Shore had sets at 10 ft on the face and lined up and clean with decent form but with a little warble running through it. The South Shore was thigh to waist high and lined up and real clean early. The East Shore was waist high and lightly chopped from moderate east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (2/15) swell from a broad gale that developed over the Dateline Sat-Mon (1/14) producing 41 ft seas aimed east was hitting Hawaii and bound for the US West Coast. Beyond a tiny gale is forecast for the North Dateline Region on Tues-Wed (2/16) producing 34-36 ft seas aimed east. And a broad system is forecast just off the Kuril Islands on Mon-Tues (2/22) producing 35-36 ft seas aimed east. It appears the center of the storm pattern is shifting west and weakening.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (2/15) the jet was consolidated pushing east off Japan on the 33N latitude line to the dateline with winds to 170 kts offering some support for gale development, then splitting with the northern branch pushing northeast over the Eastern Aleutians and then down British Columbia supporting nothing but high pressure east of the split point. Over the next 72 hours no real change is forecast except winds fading more to 130-160 kts by Fri (2/18) with no clearly defined troughs forecast offering nothing more than what is occurring now to support gale development. If anything the split point is to retrograde to 175E. Beyond 72 hours starting Sun (2/20) winds to build over Japan to 210 kts with the split point retrograding near 170E offering nothing to support gale development. But by Tues (2/22) winds energy is to again be pushing to the dateline at 200-210 kts with the split point at 175W offering some support for gale development though no troughs are forecast in the core of the jet. A highly diffuse jetstream flow is forecast east of the split point with the jet generally tracking south down the US West Coast a9a trough starting to dig out just west of the dateline offering good support for gale development. By Sun (2/13) winds to build off Japan to 200 kts feeding the trough with a trough over inland Central CA offering some support for precipitation there.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (2/15) swell from a gale that developed on the dateline was hitting Hawaii and bound for the US West Coast (see Dateline Gale below). No other swell was in the water behind it.

Over the next 72 hours starting Tues PM (2/15) a tiny gale is forecast developing over the North Dateline region generating 50-55 kt west winds and 34 ft seas at 43N 176.75E aimed east. On Wed AM (2/16) the gale is to be lifting northeast fast with 45 kt west winds and seas 36 ft at 48N 177.75W. Secondary fetch at 35 kts is to be producing 27 ft seas at 41N 172E aimed east. In the evening the primary system is to be gone and fetch in the secondary system is to be fading from 30 kts with 23 ft seas at 40N 178E aimed east. Small swell is possible mainly for Hawaii. Something to monitor.

Dateline Gale
A gale started building west of the dateline on Sat AM (2/12) with 40-45 kt northwest and west winds and seas building from 28 ft at 29.5N 167.5E aimed east. In the evening fetch built to 50-55 kts over a solid area on the dateline from the northwest and west with seas building from 33 ft at 34.5N 176.75E aimed east and southeast. On Sun AM (2/13) the gale was lifting slowly north on the dateline with 45-50 kt northwest and west winds and seas 41 ft over a decent sized area at 39.5N 179.5E aimed east and northeast. In the evening the gale was fading on the dateline with west winds 40-45 kts with seas 39-40 ft aimed east at 42.5N 178W aimed east. On Mon (2/14) fetch was fading from 35-40 kts over the North Dateline region with seas 33 ft at 47.75N 175.5W aimed east. This system was gone in the evening.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Tues (2/15) building to 7.5 ft @ 17 secs midday (12 ft). Swell fading Wed (2/16) from 5.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (7.5 ft). Residuals fading Thurs (2/17) from 4.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (6.0 ft). Dribbles on Fri (2/18) fading from 3.4 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 305-310 degrees

North California: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (2/17) building to 4.5 ft @ 17 secs midday (7.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (2/18) from 3.8 ft @ 15 secs (5.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (2/19) fading from 3.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 291-295 degrees

Wed (2/16) north winds are forecast at 30-35 kts for Cape Mendocino early and northwest 15-20 kts for the reminder of North CA continuing down into Central CA. Northwest winds 15 kts early for Southern CA. In the afternoon north winds are forecast at 30-35 kts for all of North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. Light winds for Central CA.
Thurs (2/17) north winds are forecast at 15-20 kts early for North CA and light from Bodega Bay southward. In the afternoon north winds are forecast at 25-30 kts limited to Cape Mendocino but light north 5 kts or less south of there.
Fri (2/18) north winds are forecast at 15 kts early for Cape Mendocino and north 5 kts for North and Central CA early. No real change in the afternoon.
Sat (2/19) early north winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts south of there to the Golden Gate. Northwest are forecast at 5-10 kts to Pt Conception. In the afternoon northwest winds to be building at 15-20 kts for all of North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA.
Sun (2/20) high pressure builds over the Gulf with northwest winds 15-20 kts early for all of North and Central CA early building from the northwest at 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA in the afternoon.
Mon (2/21) high pressure builds more with northwest winds 20-25 kts early for all of North and Central CA and holding unchanged in the afternoon and building to 25-30 kts for Southern CA later.
Tues (2/22) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts solid for North, Central and South CA early building to 20-25 kts in the afternoon for all locations.

Freezing level 4.000 ft today building to 11,000 ft on 2/16 then slowly falling to 7,000 ft on 2/18 and generally holding there beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch has occurred of is forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours perhaps another gale is to be building over and just west of the Kuril Islands on Mon AM (2/21) producing westerly winds at 50-55 kts with 43 ft seas at 45.75N 155.75E aimed east. In the evening west winds to be 45 kts over a solid area just west of the Kuril Islands with 39 ft seas at 45N 159.5E aimed east. On Tues AM (2/22) west winds are to be 40 kts with seas 35 ft at 44.5N 163E aimed east. Fetch is to be fading out in the evening with seas fading from 29-30 ft at 45N 168E aimed east. Something to monitor.

La Nina Evaporating - Kelvin Wave Still Pushing East
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, beating last years volume, but is quickly fading at the surface in the East Equatorial Pacific. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec has produced a Kelvin Wave that is plodding east through the Central Pacific. Water temps appear to be warming over the entire East Pacific, though still in La nina territory for the moment. A return to a more normal cadence of Active and Inactive MJO phases is starting now. It seems the the peak of La Nina is behind us. But the atmosphere will take much time to respond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/14) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light to modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (2/15) modest to moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies building to strong status on 2/17 in the core of the KWGA and holding unchanged in coverage and strength through the end of the model run on 2/22.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (2/14) A moderate to strong Inactive MJO was indicated over the KWGA. The statistical model suggests it is to hold while slowly tracking east still in the KWGA through day 10 of the model run then fading and pushing east of the KWGA on day 15 of the model run while the Active Phase tries to build over the far west KWGA. The dynamic model projects effectively the same but with the Inactive Phase still centered over the dateline at day 15 of the model run and a bit stronger than what the statistic model indicates.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (2/15) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was modest over the Central Indian Ocean and is forecast slowly moving to the Maritime Continent while fading in strength to weak status over the next 15 days. The dynamic model suggests Active Phase holding over the Central Indian Ocean for the next week at modest to moderate strength then pushing east to the Maritime Continent at day 15 of the model run at weak strength.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (2/14) A weak Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was depicted over the Central Pacific today. The forecast indicates the Active Phase (wet air) moving east into the KWGA on 2/24. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to track east filling the equatorial Pacific weakly on 3/1 then moving east and over Central America on 3/16. A new coherent Inactive Phase (dry air) is to build over the KWGA on 3/16 filling the equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run on 3/26.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/14) The Inactive Phase of the MJO was depicted filling the KWGA today with modest easterly anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has east anomalies building in coverage and strength filling the KWGA at near strong status 2/16-2/29 as the Inactive Phase makes it's push east across the KWGA and then east of it on 3/2. The Active Phase is to start pushing in the the West KWGA on 2/23 filling the KWGA at the end of the model run on 3/14 with west anomalies filling the western KWGA to 160E.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/15 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day): Today the Inactive Phase was over the Eastern KWGA with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has east anomalies slowly tracking east over the KWGA peaking in strength 2/16-3/2 on the dateline as the Inactive Phase pushes east and then fully moves east of the KWGA on 3/3 with east anomalies fading fast. The Active Phase of the MJO was today over the western KWGA but stalled, but is forecast to push east filling it on 3/3 with west anomalies moving east from the Maritime Continent into the West KWGA on 2/23 then filling it on 3/8. The Active Phase is to hold over the KWGA through 3/27 with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA holding into 4/5. The Inactive Phase is to develop 3/19 in the West KWGA tracking east through 4/28 but with neutral to weak west anomalies in control the whole time. A neutral MJO signal is forecast after that through the end of the model run on 5/15 but with weak west anomalies in control of the KWGA from 4/18 onward. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered east of the dateline at 150W with its western perimeter at 175E today and forecast holding then pushing to and east of the dateline 4/4 and slowly easing east from there. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 140E and barely in the KWGA but is forecast starting to move decidedly east into the KWGA starting 3/11 quickly filling 75% of the KWGA and building further east to the dateline on 4/10 as a second contour builds starting 4/12. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that had been in control of KWGA since early July is gone. A return to a normal MJO alternating pattern is in play. And the low pressure bias is to start building over the dateline region in early March signaling the full demise of La Nina. That said, there is only one more Active MJO forecast for this winter, in the late Feb/early March timeframe meaning only one more shot at support for some sort of gale/swell production.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/15) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was retrograding to 169E. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding to 178E. The 24 deg isotherm was easing east to 100W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +3 deg C were steady with their leading edge moving east to about 105W. Cool anomalies were gone under the East Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/7 indicates a Kelvin Wave pushing east with 4-5 degs warm anomalies with its eastern edge at 105W with only a tiny pocket of cool anomalies at -3 degs C 25 meters down and pushing to the surface at 100W while rapidly fading in coverage. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (2/7) Sea heights were neutral over the Equatorial Pacific except one small area of -5 cms anomalies between 105W to 85W and losing coverage quickly. Otherwise positive anomalies were steady, locked at the dateline but with a finger of 0 to -5 cms on the equator from the dateline to 110W. A weak Kelvin Wave is pushing east. La Nina is trying to hold on but appears to be getting significantly challenged by warmer water encroaching from the west. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina subsurface cold temperatures are rapidly collapsing while being pushed east by the Kelvin Wave. Warm water was fast moving east with it's leading edge today at 110W. All this signals the demise of La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (2/14) The latest images depict a broad stream of cool water on the equator extending west from just off Ecuador peaking from the Galapagos to 110W then weaker west of there before dissipating on the dateline. The core of this pool is rapidly fading in intensity and coverage day by day. Its pretty amazing how quick the demise is occurring. The classic La Nina pattern is in quick retreat. There are signs of warming along the coasts of Chile and Peru. An area of warm water was holding just north of the equator across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the demise of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/14): Warming was occurring from Ecuador west on the equator to 120W. Warming was occurring off all of Chile and Peru too out to 120W. No cooling was indicated
Hi-res Overview: (2/14) The magnitude of the core of the La Nina cool pool is fading quickly if not collapsing. But weaker residual cool waters were still covering a large area from Peru up to the equator and west to the dateline. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S though losing coverage and intensity. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 3N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina is solid but appears to be fading focused over the equatorial East Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/15) Today's temps were steady at -1.395 after rising to -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/15) Today's temps were falling some at -0.724 after rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (2/15) - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022. The forecast indicates temps falling to -1.1 degs in May only to rise some to -0.95 degs in the July and holding beyond. This is not believable. This model suggests we are at or almost past the peak of La Nina temperatures this Winter. But there is no indication that El Nino will develop and if anything we'll fall into a weak steady state La Nina beyond. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.0 degs in June then rising to -0.75 degs in July and holding beyond. Still, neither of these forecasts seems realistic (see IRI Consensus forecast below).
IRI Consensus Plume: The Jan 13, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.960 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.586 degrees in March, then rising to -0.011 degs in July and neutral after that. A return to ENSO neutral is expected this summer.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (2/15) the daily index was negative at -16.33 after peaking at +27.33 on 1/31/22 and +46.71 on 12/26. The trend of late has been towards positive readings. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 on 11/26, +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15.
The 30 day average was rising at +10.21 after falling to +0.83 on 1/27 then peaking at +13.07 on 12/31 (the highest in a year) after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14.
The 90 day average was falling at +8.56 today after previously peaking at +10.90 on 12/26, falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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