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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: February 21, 2006 6:26 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 1.5 - California & 1.9 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 2/20 thru Sun 2/24
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Utility swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of Utility swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

N. Pacific Locked-Down
No Change Foreseen

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Tuesday (2/21) Northern CA surf was chest to head high. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were waist to chest high. Central California surf was waist to chest high. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were flat with best break to waist high. The LA Area southward to Orange County was up to waist high at the best breaks. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were waist high. The North Shore of Oahu was waist high. The South Shore was flat. The East Shore was thigh high.

Really nothing on the charts or in the water for the next few days and most spots are near flat. The best hope is Hawaii, and then limited to the Northeast Shore with windswell expected there later this week and then bigger early next week. High pressure conditions to lock down the North Pacific with no real change forecast for the foreseeable future. See details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Tuesdays (2/21) jetstream continued in split mode with no change expected. Solid energy continued tracking off Japan but then splits east of the dateline at 160E with the southern branch tracking over Hawaii then heading east into Central Baja while the northern branch pushed northeast over the Aleutians and into Alaska. There was no indication of any support for surface level storm development. Over the next 72 hours through Friday (2/24) the split in the jetstream is to become even more pronounced pushing even further west to about 150E (a few hundred miles east of Japan). Energy is to be evenly split between the north and south branches of the jet with pockets to 120 kts, but fleeting and not well organized. No support for surface level storm development suggested. Beyond 72 hours the northern branch is to continue over the Aleutians but start dipping south over the Northern Gulf of Alaska on Sunday (2/26) but very steep and pinched pushing to a point off Pt Conception California by late Tuesday (2/28). Winds to be generally light, but there's suggestion that some surface gale activity might result from this dip in the jet. Otherwise placid conditions to prevail.

At the surface today high pressure at 1036 mbs was in control of the Central Gulf of Alaska, positioned 1400 nmiles north of Hawaii ridging into Canada and west to the dateline. A weak low at 1014 mbs was west of Hawaii generating some 25 kt east winds aimed at Japan. Over the next 72 hours another similar low at 1016 mbs is to set up northeast of Hawaii starting Wednesday and continuing in some form through the workweek (peaking Thursday) producing up to 30 kt east-northeast winds and 18 ft seas aimed reasonably well towards the Hawaii and Islands and likely producing windswell headed in their direction (See QuikCAST's for details). Otherwise high pressure in the Gulf is to drift east towards the Pacific Northwest ridging into the coast there, but not moving inland. No swell producing fetch indicated for the mainland.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Offshore Forecast
On Tuesday (2/21) the models continue to indicate high pressure in control for the coming week and beyond. A strong local cell was located north of Hawaii at 1040 mbs ridging into the Pacific Northwest, but too far away to have any affect on California winds other than to keep a light offshore flow in place. This high to track east and get close enough by Thursday to build a momentary moderate north flow along the coast for that day. But then the high is to fade and retreat west with a light wind regime back in effect through the weekend (some north winds north of Pt Reyes likely over the weekend though). But by late Monday (2/27) low pressure to start winding up off Pt Conception tracking east perhaps driving some winter like weather into the coast by Tuesday into early Wednesday generating southerly windswell, but that's pure guesswork this far out.

The detailed 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.

 

South Pacific

Overview
No swell producing fetch forecast over the next 72 hours.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a new high pressure centered at 1044 mbs is to develop over the Aleutian Islands just east of the dateline tracking southeast towards the Gulf on Sunday (2/26). Marginally lower pressure in the Gulf at 1016 mbs is to be sinking south generating gradient north winds at 30 kts as the two systems interact. These winds to be aimed midway between Hawaii and California. By Monday (2/27) a real low is to develop off Central Canada dipping to 988 mbs Monday with 40-45 kt north winds and 28-30 ft seas building in the gradient aimed south imbedded in a 1500 nmile long fetch of 20-30 kts north winds targeting Hawaii through Tuesday. Possible solid windswell heading for Hawaii's northeast shores early next week. This swell likely to bypass all of the mainland. No other swell producing source suggested.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

Details to follow...


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