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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: March 7, 2006 7:55 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 2.9 - California & 1.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 3/6 thru Sun 3/12
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Utility swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of Utility swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Another Gale Forecast off CA
Weaker Pattern to Follow

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Tuesday (3/7) Northern CA surf was head high to 2 ft overhead and junked out. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were chest to head high. Central California surf was head high to 2 ft overhead. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were up to chest high at the better breaks but most were waist high. The LA Area southward to Orange County was waist high. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were waist to chest high. The North Shore of Oahu was near flat. The South Shore was up to waist high. The East Shore was up to head high.

The charts are dangling one more larger but raw swell out there for California with maybe some north windswell for Hawaii over the next week. And both these cases are only 'possibilities', with no swell producing fetch actually interacting with the oceans surface at this time. Beyond that nothing of interest is suggested, so make the most of whatever swell energy comes your way, even if the conditions are less than ideal. Just remember, it could be summer, and will be soon enough. See details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Tuesdays jetstream (3/7) continued in split mode with the split point edging a bit more to the east to 170E, but is expected to retrograde back to the west shortly. The southern branch was withering slowly and tracking south of Hawaii while the northern branch itself was split tracking roughly east of the Kuril Islands, then over the Aleutians at the dateline continuing into the northern Gulf of Alaska with a pocket of 130 kt winds there fading and pushing into North Canada. No trough's or dips of interest were indicated. Over the next 72 hours starting Wednesday (3/8) the split in the jetstream is to remain pronounced and basically unchanged with most energy in the northern branch pushing over the Aleutians. A new small trough is to start setting up in the northmost Gulf of Alaska pushing southeast down the Canadian coast through Friday with 140-150 kt winds supporting some form of surface low tracking directly over the coast if not inland some. Beyond 72 hours the trough is to continue sagging south through Saturday taking up home over San Francisco, finally pushing inland on Monday (3/13). In parallel another trough is to start setting up over the dateline Friday (3/10) tracking east and building in size but not intensity until Tuesday (3/14) when some 120 kt winds are to start building around it as it moves into the Gulf of Alaska, maybe providing some hope for moderate surface low development.

At the surface today high pressure at 1028 mbs was mid-way between California and Hawaii and filling the Northeastern Pacific. A second high at 1032 mbs while a 992 mb low was edging off Kamchatka bound directly for the Bering Sea. No swell generation source was apparent.

Over the next 72 hours through Friday (3/10) the existing two high pressure systems are to merge north of the Islands late Wednesday while another low tries to organized in the eastern most Gulf of Alaska. Pressure to drop to 972 mbs just off the north Canadian coast forming a gradient between the low and high pressure back to the west over the greater East Pacific. this gradient to produce 45-50 kt winds projected there but outside the CA swell window, imbedded in a broader fetch of 35-45 kt northwest winds blowing down the very edge of the North CA swell window. All this fetch to be blowing into Vancouver Islands and locations north of there providing swell generation potential for the Pacific Northwest. The low itself to push inland over North Canada late Wednesday tracking southeast while fetch from the low pushes down the coast at 35-40 kts through Thursday producing 32 ft seas taking aim on southern Oregon. 28-30 ft seas forecast to be right on the northmost edge of the North CA swell window likely pushing some swell energy south. Some form of northwest fetch to persist through Saturday (3/11) at 30-35 kts as this system slowly sinks southeast and fades. 22-27 ft seas to follow the fetch south arriving just off Pt Conception late Saturday night at 20 ft. Moderately large raw swell expected for exposed breaks in California starting late Friday continuing into Saturday with lesser energy likely wrapping into exposed breaks in Southern CA. No energy to reach Hawaii though.

A series of 2 weak and quick moving lows are to track off the Kurils headed northeast, moving quickly in to the Bering Sea none with any swell generation potential.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Offshore Forecast
On Tuesday (3/7) the models continue to indicate lot's of wind for the California coast (North and South) through Friday (3/10) as low pressure moves down the coast interacting with high pressure further out at sea, generating gradient northwest winds. The low to reach San Francisco by Saturday, setting up calm winds for North CA through Sunday though still blowing in the South. some form of brisk northwest winds to continue through early next week as high pressure offshore continues control of the far outer waters.

The detailed 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.

 

South Pacific

Overview
No swell producing fetch forecast over the next 72 hours.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours on Friday (3/10) a 996 mb low is to develop northwest of Hawaii lifting north and starting to tap solid energy in the the jetstream. Current data suggests part of it is to continue north moving into the Bering Sea with no swell generation potential. But a second fetch is to develop in the same locale generating 30-35 kt northwest winds and less than 20 ft seas initially, possibly building to 35-40 kts and dropping southeast with 23 ft seas pushing a bit east of the Islands through Tuesday.

No other swell sources suggested with high pressure in control of the dateline blocking the Aleutian Storm Corridor.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

Details to follow...


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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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