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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, March 8, 2018 4:14 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.0 - California & 2.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 3/5 thru Sun 3/11

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Stronger Gale Still Forecast for Gulf
Lingering Low Pressure To Hang Off CA

BUOY ROUNDUP

On Thursday, March 8, 2018 :

  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): This buoy is down and not updating.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 13.4 secs from 253 degrees. Wind at the buoy was west at 6 kts. Water temperature 58.6 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 1.3 ft @ 12.2 secs from 259 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 15.7 secs from 203 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.5 ft @ 15.4 secs from 219 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.9 ft @ 13.1 secs from 238 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 17.3 secs from 318 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 12-14 kts. Water temp 53.2 degs.

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (3/8) in North and Central CA local windswell was producing waves in the head high range and clean but soft and a little lumpy with some haze on top. Protected breaks were waist high and clean but soft and gutless. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high with some bigger peaks on sets and clean but ill formed. In Southern California up north surf was maybe thigh high on the sets and clean. In North Orange Co surf was waist to maybe chest high and weak but clean coming from the south. South Orange Country's best breaks were chest to shoulder high and clean and lined up when they come. In North San Diego surf was waist to maybe chest high at best breaks and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was flat to waist high and warbled from northeast trades. The South Shore was flat and clean. East Shore was getting northeast windswell at shoulder high and chopped from moderate east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (3/8) in California small west windswell from a low pressure system off the CA coast was hitting mixed with small energy coming from the Southern Hemi. Hawaii was receiving minimal northeast windswell from the same gale off California and previously north-northeast of the Islands. A gale is still charted developing Fri-Wed (3/14) when a progressive pair of gales are to develop in the Gulf of Alaska initially producing 26 ft seas falling southeast then redeveloping off California possibly producing another pulse of 28-30 ft seas just off the coast there. At least there's something to monitor. Otherwise a quiet pattern is in control driven by La Nina in combination with the Inactive Phase of the MJO.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday AM (3/8) the jetstream was splitting over Southern Japan with the northern branch tracking northeast over the Kuril Islands then tracking east over the Aleutians before falling south in the Eastern Gulf forming a pinched backdoor trough with it's apex just northeast of Hawaii before pushing northeast again and pushing over North and Central CA. The southern branch was tracking east over the dateline and over Hawaii before merging with the northern branch northeast of Hawaii and pushing inland over California. There was very limited support for gale development in the backdoor trough off the US West Coast. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to dissolve later Friday (3/9) while a new trough starts building in the Northern Gulf being fed by 150 kt winds and falling south into Sun (3/11) offering far greater support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours the trough in the Eastern Gulf is to continue slowly pushing east and holding form through Thurs (3/15) and still not onshore just off the North CA coast but with winds slowly weakening to the 100-110 kts range offering less support for gale development. Over the same time period the split point over Japan is to start pushing east reaching the dateline by Tues (3/13) with winds building to 130 kts in the consolidated portion of the jet pushing off Japan perhaps offering some support for gale development there. But by Thurs (3/15) that portion of the jet is to again split with a fragmented and weak flow over the entire Pacific offering little support for gale development mainly attributable to the lack of velocity in jetstream level winds.

Surface Analysis
Small swell from a gale previously off Japan was poised to hit California (see Japan Gale below). Windswell from a local gale off the CA coast was also hitting (see Local CA Gale below). Also small windswell from a gale currently off the California Coast was hitting Hawaii (see Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a broad gale is to start building in the Northern Gulf of Alaska Thurs PM (3/8) producing a fetch of 30-35 kt northwest winds getting traction and seas building from 22 ft at 50N 170W. Fri AM (3/9) northwest winds to be 35+ kt over a broad area pushing southeast from the Eastern Aleutians generating 26-28 ft at 50N 168W. In the evening northwest winds to be 30-35 kts over the same area while falling southeast with 27 ft at 47N 167W. On Sat AM (3/10) 30+ kt northwest winds to continue with seas 25 ft at 44N 163W. Fetch is to be fading in the evening while falling southeast at 30 kts more from the north with 23 ft seas at 39N 161W targeting both Hawaii and California. Seas from previous fetch fading Sun AM (3/11) at 34N 159W aimed a bit east of Hawaii. Possible swell for Hawaii and the US West Coast to result.

 

Local CA Gale
A local gale developed off the North CA coast on Wed PM (3/7) producing a short lived fetch of 35 kt west winds just 450 nmiles off the coast producing 20 ft seas aimed east at 40N 131W (off Pt Arena). The gale is to move onshore over South Oregon border Thurs AM (3/8) with 22 ft seas impacting the Oregon coast at 42N 124W. Sideband windswell to result for the Central CA coast on Thurs afternoon (3/8).

North CA: Expect swell arrival building to noon Thurs (3/8) pushing 5.1 ft @ 11 secs (5 ft). Swell fading Fri AM (3/9) from 3.4 ft @ 8-9 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 250 degrees

 

Japan Gale
On Thurs PM (3/1) a gale developed off North Japan producing a building fetch of 45 kt west winds starting to get traction on the oceans surface producing 30 ft seas at 41N 146E aimed east. By Fri AM (3/2) the gale was tracking northeast off the Southern Kuril Islands with 40-45 kt west winds and seas building to 34 ft at 42N 152E aimed east. The gale was lifting northeast in the evening with winds 40 kts from the west and seas 35 ft at 46N 157E. On Sat (3/3) the gale was approaching the West Aleutians with winds 35 kts from the west and seas 31 ft at 49N 163E. In the evening the gale was fading while pushing into the West Bering Sea with all seas impacting the Western Aleutians at 31 ft at 51N 166E. Low odds of some sideband swell reaching Hawaii and swell decayed swell resulting for the US West Coast.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (3/8) building to 2.5 ft @ 16 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell continues on Fri (3/9) at 2.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (3/10) fading from 2.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 302 degrees

 

Gulf Gale
A gale developed in the Northern Gulf on Fri PM (3/2) with 45 kt northwest winds aimed well at Hawaii with seas building from 24 ft over a tiny area at 49N 161W. On Sat AM (3/3) fetch was building in coverage at 40 kts from the northwest over a small area with 31 ft seas aimed southeast at 48N 156W. The gale faded in the evening while falling southeast with northwest fetch 40 kts targeting locations just barely at Hawaii and mostly east of there with seas fading from 29 ft at 47N 153W. Sun AM (3/4) fetch fell south at 35 kts over a small area with 27 ft seas at 43N 152W targeting areas just east of Hawaii. The gale fell south in the evening with winds 30 kts from the north and seas 25 ft at 39N 150W. The gale was dissipating Mon AM (3/5) with north winds fading from 30 kts and seas fading from 20 ft at 35N 149W aimed southeast. The low is to hold position Mon PM through Tues PM (3/6) with north winds still 30 kts and seas 19 ft at 35N 148W aimed south.

Hawaii: Residual swell expected to continue on Thurs (3/8) fading from 4.6 ft @ 10 secs (4.5 ft). North windswell continues Fri (3/9) at 6.5 ft @ 11-12 secs (7.0-7.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (3/10) from 6.2 ft @ 10-11 secs (6.5 ft). Swell Direction: 005-015 degrees

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday AM (3/8) low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska was tracking northeast and pushing into Oregon with a front impacting north Cape Mendocino producing 30 kt south winds there but calm winds from Pt Arena southward into Southern CA. The front is to dissipate through the day and make no southward progress. Rain limited to points north of Pt Arena. Friday (3/9) a weak pressure pattern is to take root with generally light winds 10 kts or less along the coast. Light rain forecast for Cape Mendocino and the Big Sur area. Saturday a light wind flow is forecast turning south at 10-15 kts later as low pressure builds off the coast. Rain building from the west into South and Central CA by 3 PM. Snow for high elevations of the Sierra starting after sunset from Tahoe southward. Sunday AM (3/11) the core of a weak low is to be pushing north off Monterey Bay with south winds forecast at 20 kts from Pt Conception northward to Pt Reyes early with rain from Pt Conception to Pt Arena early fading steadily through the day. Snow for Tahoe early turning to rain as temps rise through the day. Monday (3/12) a far stronger gale is forecast building off the CA coast with south winds building to 25 kts from Pt Arena northward and south at 15 kts to to Big Sur in the evening. Light winds south of there. Light rain building over the entire North and Central coast later and into the Sierra later. Tues (3/13) the core of the low is to lift north and out of the picture with light winds early turning south 5 kts later as a new low winds up off the coast. Light rain along the North and Central coasts mainly early. Light snow for high elevations of the Sierra through the day. Wednesday (3/14) a new gale is to be off the North Coast with south winds 25+ kts from Monterey Bay northward early pushing south to Pt Conception at 20 kts late morning with a front pushing through and light west winds in the afternoon. Solid rain possible from Pt Conception northward through the day and light rain for Southern CA. Snow building over the Sierra in the afternoon with falling snow levels overnight. Thursday (3/15) another pulse/front from low pressure falling south off the coast is to hit the coast with south winds 20 kts from Pt Conception northward. Rain building along the Central Coast early pushing into Southern CA later. Light snow for Tahoe and the Southern Sierra.

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis  
No swell producing weather systems of interest are occurring. Swell from a gale that previously traversed the South Pacific is hitting mainly Southern CA (see South Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

South Pacific Gale
A gale started developing in the Southwestern Pacific on Sun PM (2/25) producing 50 kt south winds and seas building from 30 ft over a small area at 53S 170W. Mon AM (2/26) 45 kt southwest winds were lifting northeast some with seas to 35 ft at 52S 159W. In the evening fetch rebuilt to 50 kts from the southwest over a consolidated area with seas to 33 ft at 54S 144W. On Tues AM (2/27) 45 kt southwest winds continued pushing east with seas building to 40 ft at 54S 133W aimed mainly east. In the evening fetch continued at 45 kts from the west-southwest with the gale falling slightly southeast with seas 42 ft at 55S 125W aimed east. On Wed AM the gale was fading with 40 kt west winds while racing east and beyond the eastern edge of the California swell window with seas 40 ft at 56S 115W. Some small sideband swell is possible for California, but nothing for Hawaii.

Southern CA: Swell dissipating Thurs (3/8) from 1.4 ft @ 15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours additional energy is to be building off the Pacific Northwest and California coasts Tues PM (3/13) generating two building fetches of 35-40 kt northwest winds with seas to 25 ft at 47N 138W (off Washington) and a secondary area of 20 ft seas building at 37N 136W off Central CA. Wednesday AM (3/14) fetch is to start pushing east and consolidating at 30-35 kts from the northwest off mainly California now with seas 24 ft at 43N 138W and additional 20 ft seas at 40N 131W. Things to possibly get interesting in the evening with a building fetch of 35 kt north winds off the North CA coast with a defined low pressure center just off Cape Mendocino with seas building to 23 ft at 38N 1136W aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/15) 40 kt north winds to hold off San Francisco with 27 ft seas at 37N 133W aimed south of the California coast. In the evening fetch is to be falling south at 30+ kts with seas 24 ft at 33N 130W or 400 nmiles off Pt Conception. Something to monitor.


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

More details to follow...

 

Nino1.2 Region Cooling Some - Upwelling Kelvin Wave In Effect

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018, suggesting La Nina was fading.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Wednesday (3/7) 5 day average winds were from the east over the bulk of the equatorial Pacific but far weaker over the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were neutral over the equatorial Pacific but weak easterly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/8) Moderate east anomalies were from 170E and points east of there but moderate westerly winds were over the bulk of the Central and West KWGA. This pattern is to hold through 3/14 with solid east anomalies from 170E and points east of there but with west anomalies fading to the modest category starting 3/12 west of there and holding through the end of the model run. This continues to look like a signal of the eastward shift of the low pressure bias.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (3/7) The Inactive/Dry Phase of the MJO was moderate in strength and covering the KWGA. The statistical model depicts the Inactive Phase slowly easing east and weakening and gone 8 days out with a weak Active Phase of the MJO building into the and filling the West Pacific at the end of the model run 15 days out. The dynamic model depicts the Inactive Phase holding over the West Pacific fading in coverage some.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (3/8) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO modest in strength over the East Indian Ocean. It is to fade while tracking east to the West Pacific over the next 2 weeks. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase is to hold in the Indian Ocean for the next 2 weeks and weak.
40 day Upper Level Model: (3/8) This model depicts a solid pulse of the Inactive/Dry Phase over the East Pacific with a neutral pattern over the Central and West Pacific. The Inactive Phase is to push east and beyond Central America through 3/10. A modest Active Phase is to set up in the West Pacific 3/10 moving east east into the East Pacific and Central America 4/2. A new Inactive Phase is to be developing moderately in the far West Pacific on 4/2 migrating to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 4/17. This model runs about 1-2 weeks ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (3/8) This model depicts the Inactive Phase fading over the KWGA with east anomalies mainly from the dateline and points east of there with weak west anomalies west of there with this west wind pattern slow building in coverage. Beyond a weak Active Phase is to follow in the West Pacific starting 3/26 with a more solid west anomaly pattern developing and filling the Kelvin Wave Generation Area and building to the strong category 4/15. The Active Phase is to dissipate 5/3 with no coherent MJO signal beyond through the end of the model run (6/5) but with weak west anomalies holding and no sign of east anomalies. The low pass filter indicates a modest low pressure bias over the western half of the KWGA at 165E and is to push east steadily from here forward reaching the dateline 4/16 with a high pressure bias over the East KWGA at 175E and is to steadily move east and out of the KWGA on 4/9. Basically the La Nina bias is to be gone in 4 weeks. But no significant oceanic change is expected until 3 months after the change has taken place in the atmosphere.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/8) The overview pattern depicts that warm water is sequestered to the west but building east with cooler water steadily loosing control of the East Pacific. Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 29-30 degs at 160E. The 28 deg isotherm line is easing east today at 178E and steep (meaning there is a headwind of cooler water pushing into it from the east). The 24 deg isotherm was shallow but has made significant eastward progress migrating across the entire Pacific to Ecuador and 25 meters deep or more the whole way east and 75 meters deep at 140W. Anomaly wise in the East Pacific negative temperatures are at -1 deg at 150W and 25 meters deep with a smaller pocket also at -1.0 degs at 105W 75 metes deep. Overall cooler water are steadily loosing coverage and density. Warm anomalies were building in the West at +3.5 degs at 180W down 150 meters and appear to be building east with the dividing line between that and cool waters moving east to 130W indicative of a large Kelvin Wave pushing east. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/4 depicts warm water in the west at +4.5 degs reaching east to 140W. Cool water at -1.5 degs was only holding in one pocket in the East Pacific near 140W and has significantly lost density, intensity and depth. Those cool anomalies continue erupting to the surface limited now from 105W to 170W. The cool pool appears to be slowly discharging to the surface. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/4) Neutral anomalies were over the balance of the equatorial East Pacific with negative anomalies at -5 cms south of the equator south of 3S in the East Pacific out to 150W and getting progressively diffuse.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (3/7) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a generic and diffuse cool pocket was in the deep Southeast Pacific centered at 100W 15S. Warm anomalies are fading and nearly gone off the coast of Chile and Peru up to Ecuador while an Inactive Phase/Upwelling Phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle pulse of cool upwelling pattern was indicated along the immediate coast of Peru and another off Columbia. Warm anomalies are holding along the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos out to 125W. Weak cool pockets were generally weak and diffuse west of there to 160W and with a continuing smaller footprint.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/7): A weak warming trend was off South Chile pushing west to the Central Pacific. Also a weak warming trend continues off all of Chile and Peru up to Central America with that warming advecting west along the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos and out to 140W but weaker than days and weeks past. There was a building pocket of cooling water along coast of Peru and also over the Galapagos.
Hi-res Overview: (3/7) A significant erosion of La Nina is underway with warming building in the entire Nino1.2 region. A broad weak cool pocket is still present well off Chile (10S 110W) and Peru with the La Nina core on the equator from 110W to the dateline, starting to look like a Modoki La Nina than anything solid (meaning the core of La Nina is advecting west). Cool water at depth is still erupting to the surface with the breach point south of Hawaii. Overall the cooling pattern is steadily loosing density and drifting west. It appears La Nina is in steady decline.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/8) Today's temps were falling at -1.336 degs after having risen to +0.898 degrees on 2/28. Overall it looks like the trend is heading downward compared to an upward trend since late December. Temps in this area bottomed out on 12/23 at -2.1 degs, a third near peak negative reading. The lowest point so far in this La Nina was -2.248 degs reached on 11/5. And that low point was lower than the previous coldest point reached on 10/11 at -1.9 degs.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/8) Today temps were steady at -0.774. A dramatic rise occurred 1/12-1/28 reaching up to -0.600 deg range. Since then temps have eased off some. Previously a peak low was observed on 1/10-1/12 to -1.577. On (12/7) temps hit a previous record low at -1.219, just below the previous coldest peak so far this La Nina on 11/22 at -1.156. And the third previous low peak was reached at -1.1 on 11/23. The long arc suggests perhaps a rising pattern. La Nina is in control, but it's taking a hit.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (3/8) The forecast depicts temps bottomed out at -0.75 in Nov and have been slowly rebounding since, up to -0.55 in early Feb and holding at that level today. The model indicates temps holding into early May, then falling slowly to -0.85 in early Aug, then starting to rise into the Fall to -0.5 degs in Oct. This suggests the peak of this years La Nina has occurred but a hangover from it is to possibly hold weakly through Summer before fading more in the Fall. This model is the outlier with others suggesting La Nina is to die this Spring.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Feb Plume depicts temps at -0.5 degs and are to slowly rise, to +0.0 in May and +0.3 in August and +0.5 in October. See chart here - link. It looks like La Nina is fading out. The CFSv2 is in the low end of that pack.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (3/8): The daily index was positive today at 13.55. The 30 day average was rising at -0.69 suggesting the Inactive Phase of the MJO was still affecting the index. The 90 day average was falling at -0.33 suggesting La Nina is dead.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (3/8) This index is falling today at -0.74, down from -0.33 in late Feb, up from -1.11 on 1/29. The trend suggests La Nina is fading but not gone. Last years La Nina reached -1.94 on 11/2/16 and then fell to -2.20 on 6/28/17. It held pretty negative through Jan 2018. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events. The goal is to have it rise to at least -0.5 before a significant change could be suggested.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.12, Feb = +0.05, March = +0.14, April=+0.53, May=+0.29, June=+0.21, July= -0.50, Aug= -0.62, Sept = -0.25, Oct= -0.61, Nov = -0.45, Dec= -0.13, Jan=+0.29, Feb=-0.10. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10, Aug=+0.09, Sept = +0.32, Oct=+0.05, Nov = +0.15, Dec = +0.50, Jan +0.70. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

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