New Swell Classification Guidelines (Winter)
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead). Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft) Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs. Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Thursday (3/11) North and Central California was getting leftover swell from the Gulf of Alaska with waves pushing double overhead but kinda warbled and unorganized even though wind was light. Southern California was getting waist to chest high wrap around swell with a bit of northwest wind up north but pretty clean down south. Hawaii's North Shore was small with waist to maybe chest high sets coming from the Gulf and pretty clean with trades in effect. The East Shore was getting east windswell at head high or a little more and chopped. The South Shore was getting no southern hemi swell.
The forecast for North and Central CA is for new Gulf swell to arrive for Friday to 12 ft and pretty much from the north fading from 9-10 ft on Saturday with a more westerly component. Swell to be fading Sunday at 8 ft and 7 ft Monday. Southern California is to fading waist to chest high surf early Friday but new Gulf swell to arrive late up north at head high holding at shoulder to head high Saturday, then fading on Sunday from chest to shoulder high and Waist high.cgius on Monday. The North Shore of Hawaii is to see sideband Gulf swell at chest to shoulder high Friday with a new pulse forecast for Saturday at 1-2 ft overhead dropping from head high Sunday. Possible larger swell for Monday with luck. The East Shore is to see easterly windswell at head high Friday and slowly settling down into the weekend to chest high Sunday into Monday. The South Shore is to be quiet through the weekend into early next week.
Longterm the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in the Inactive Phase reducing odds for storm formation. But that seems to have no bearing since El Nino is still in effect. Longerterm a solid gale is forecast for the Central Gulf over the weekend setting up possible swell for both Hawaii and California early next week and hanging around for a while. Another weaker one is to possibly form a later next week north of Hawaii and offering opportunity for the US coast too. nothing over the top, but surely not flat either.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
North Pacific
Overview
On Thursday (3/11) the North Pacific jetstream was .cgiit in the east but consolidated in the west and starting to pick up some momentum with winds 180 kts pushing northeast off Japan reaching just south of the Aleutians at the dateline, then falling into a building trough in the Western Gulf of Alaska with winds still 180 kts there. Pretty interesting. The trough bottomed out in the Gulf with a small flow of 130 kts winds pushing into Washington state. The only area capable of supporting gale development is the Gulf trough. Over the next 72 hrs that trough is to push rapidly east into the Pacific Northwest late Friday with a new trough building behind in the Western over the weekend, digging deeper but with less wind energy supporting it (150 kts). Still it should support gale development in that region. By the end of the weekend a consolidated jetstream flow is to be coving the entire North Pacific. Beyond 72 hours a bit of a .cgiit flow is to redevelop in the West Pacific with most energy in the northern branch ridging to the dateline then diving into the pre-existing trough in the Gulf by Tues (3/16), with more 150 kt winds forecast likely supporting development of another gale there through Thursday. At that time the jet is to re-consolidate in the west with 160 kts winds present and pushing east, while the jet disintegrates in the east.
At the surface on Thursday (3/11) remnants of a gale in the Gulf on Wednesday (see Gulf Gale below) were fading and pushing into Canada. 35 ft seas were up at 50N 135W with limited swell energy pushing down the 319 degree path to North CA, but shadowed south of there. A secondary fetch from that gale was still present producing 35 kt northwest winds out near 45N 152W resulting in 25 ft seas at 45N 155W heading east. Over the next 72 hours residual fetch from the secondary gale in the Gulf is to push east with 30 kts winds 900 nmiles off the north CA coast producing 25 ft seas back at 41N 147W (1100 nmiles out from Central CA) and fading. Some form of swell is likely to reach Central CA on Saturday (3/14) at 7 ft @ 14 secs (9-10 ft faces) from 292 degrees mixed with the leftovers of Fridays swell (see Gulf Gale below).
Of more interest is another gale forecast to be building on the dateline Friday AM (3/12) with pressure 968 mbs resulting in 40-45 kt northwest winds at 43N 180W aimed towards Hawaii down the 328 degree path and North CA down the 298 degree path. Seas building from 26 ft at 40N 173E. In the evening 50 kt west-northwest fetch is forecast at 46N 170W aimed 40 degrees east of the 240 degree path to Hawaii and 30 degrees south of the 298 degree path into North CA. Seas building from 28 ft at 45N 170W. On Saturday AM (3/13) 50 kt northwest fetch is to hold at 45N 165W aimed pretty well down the 347 degree path to Hawaii and 35 degrees south of the 297 degree path to NCal. Seas building 36 ft at 44N 164W. In the evening 45-50 kt more west angled fetch is forecast at 45N 156W aimed exclusively at North CA and down to Central CA 20 degrees south of the 296 degree path. 37 ft seas forecast at 43N 155W. The gale is to start fading Sunday AM (3/14) with 40 kt west and northwest winds at 45n 150W resulting in a broad area of 32 ft seas at 42N 150W pushing down the 294 degree path to NCal. Residual 30-35 kts northwest fetch is to hold there in the evening resulting in near 30 ft seas at 41N 152W then decaying away. If all goes as forecast some form of legitimate swell could result for the mainland focused on Central and North CA with sizable sideband energy for the Islands early in the week. High pressure off California might actually hold off south winds there too, though it could result in northwest winds.
Gulf Gale
On Wednesday AM (3/10) a storm started wrapping up in the Eastern Gulf producing a small area of 50 kt west winds at 48N 151W tracking pretty fast to the east with winds 45 kts in the evening at 48N 141W then pushing into Canada. 30 ft seas were modeled 10 AM Wed at 46N 145W pushing down the 303 degree path to NCal, which should result in swell of 8.7 ft @ 16-17 secs (13-14 ft faces) pushing into the SF Bay area starting 2 AM Friday (3/12) from 303 degrees. A front to be impacting the area at the same time.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Nearshore Forecast
On Friday (3/11) a front from the a gale in the Gulf is to push down the coast to maybe Morro Bay with south winds and rain in tow, then dissolving. Brisk northwest winds to follow by Friday evening, breaking up a little Saturday morning up north then returning early afternoon as high pressure builds in, continuing into Sunday. Southern CA to be in a calmer wind pattern by Sunday AM. A generally light wind pattern is forecast Monday into early Tuesday as low pressure moves closer from the Gulf, but doesn't directly impact the coast. High pressure returns by Tuesday after noon with a full Springtime northwest wind event in control north of Pt Conception through Friday (3/19). Welcome to the beginning of the big transition.
South Pacific
Overview
On Thursday (3/11) a small gale was circulating well southeast of Tahiti with 45 kt south winds at 45S 132W aimed due north. Those winds to be fading from 40 kts in the evening at the same location. A infinitesimal area of 30 ft seas are forecast Thurs PM at 43N 131W aimed mostly north towards California. Perhaps small swell is expected in there 8 days later (Fri PM 3/19) from 190 degrees.
The models also suggest a broad gale (almost a storm) developing just south of New Zealand Saturday PM (3/13) with 40 kt southwest winds at 53S 172E aimed up the 215 degree path to CA (mostly unshadowed by Tahiti) and up the 195 degree path to HI. Seas building from 30 ft back at 55S 170E. By Sunday AM (3/14) 55 kt southwest winds are forecast at 52S 175W aimed at CA (209 degree and partially shadowed) and up the 192 degree path to HI. Seas building to 36 ft at 53S 176W. 50 kts winds to hold at 49S 168W generating 44 ft seas at 50S 170W pushing up the 208 degree path to NCal (partially shadowed) and a bit east of the 188 degree path to Hawaii. 45 kt west-southwest fetch is to hold into Monday AM (3/15) with 46 ft seas forecast at 49S 160W pushing up the 204 degree path to CA and in the heart of the Tahitian swell shadow. Most of that energy is to be pushing east of Hawaii. A quick fade is forecast thereafter with no additional seas of interest being produced. If all this comes to pass a legitimate southern hemi swell could result for Tahiti, Hawaii, and the US West coast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
North Pacific
Beyond 72 hrs a weak diffuse gale is forecast developing north of
Hawaii on Wed/Thurs (3/18) with 35 kt northwest winds pushing close to
the Islands. 20-23 ft seas are possible, but it's way too early to know
with any certainty.
MJO/ENSO Update (reference): As of Thursday (3/11) the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) appeared to be in a near neutral state. The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index was negative with the Daily SOI at -16.80. The 30 day average was up to -9.31 (It bottomed out for the winter on 2/16 at -24.82) with the 90 day average down slightly at -13.14 (bottomed out at -13.61 on 2/15). El Nino maxed out on 2/15.
Wind anomalies at the 850 mb level (approx 5000 ft up) as defined by models indicated light easterly anomalies across the Central Indian Ocean to Northern Australia and New Guinea, a sign of the Inactive Phase. Remnants of the Active Phase still lingered from the dateline into Central America but were fading fast. Models project the Inactive Phase holding over Northern Australia reaching the dateline 3/20 then dying there by 3/30 or so. A weak version of a new Active Phase is to be building in the Indian Ocean at the same time. The Inactive Phase of the MJO should gently suppress storm development. But with the effects of El Nino on the atmosphere already well entrenched, the momentum to support storm development will be very slow to dissipate over the coming next 6 months. We will continue monitoring the MJO for signs of Active Phase dominance in the critical March-May timeframe to see if this Midoki El Nino can hang on for another year, or whether we fall back into a La Nina Pattern (where the Inactive Phase takes control).
Sea Surface Temp anomaly data (3/11) indicated no change from previous weeks, with warmer than normal waters consolidated on the equator more towards the dateline and less in the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands, but still present none-the-less. Actually, there has been some erosion of warmer waters over the Galapagos, symptomatic of the fading of El Nino. In all this continues looking more like a Midoki El Nino than one of the classic variety. But regardless, we are past the peak of this ENSO event.
Below the surface on the equator a Kevin Wave attributable to the previous Active Phase of the MJO was fading. On 3/11 tongue of warmer than normal water was in.cgiace extending east from 150W into Central America averaging 3 deg C above normal with a core to 5 C. This is expected to fuel or at least extend El Nino symptoms into summer, but is likely the last Kelvin Wave we are going to see.
Over the Equatorial Pacific solid trades were blowing in the East and continuing north of the equator all the way to almost the Philippines, but only in the normal range. Still, this looks like the Springtime transition typical for this time of the year. Still an area of fully blowing westerly winds which started to appear pushing from the far west to almost the dateline on 1/20 covered a larger area on 1/23, and in full bloom on 1/25-1/29, looking very much like a real Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) event. And even on 1/30- 2/15 solid Westerly Winds were occurring just south of the equator to 155W with solid anomalies to 140W. On 2/18-2/23 limited fully blowing west winds were still in.cgiay with anomalies to 150W, but starting to fade. Those winds were almost gone by 2/25 but not quite and still hanging on by 2/26-3/3 if not strengthening slightly. On 3/11 still a solid area of westerly winds was They were still in.cgiace on 3/8. This WWB is what generated the Kelvin Wave currently pushing east. Regardless, at some point in the next few days we expect the pattern of anomalously west winds to break down completely and a normal trade pattern to take over or even enhanced trades (which could result in La Nina). Previously Westerly Wind Bursts produced Kelvin Waves that resulted in the subsurface warm pool currently present in the tropical East Pacific that have formed El Nino.
El Nino is affecting the global atmospheric weather pattern at this point in time and is expected to continue having an impact into the Summer of 2010. This suggest that the spring storm pattern be enhanced in the North Pacific, but also the early summer storm track in the South Pacific too. This has not been a strong El Nino, more of a solid moderate one. A respectable accumulation of warm surface water in the equatorial East Pacific and a solid pool of warm subsurface water remains in.cgiace, but seems to be eroding some suggesting El Nino has maxed out. But the atmosphere is already being strongly influenced by the warm water buildup over the past 6 months, and it will not return to a normal state for quite some time.
Strong El Nino's bring lot's of bad weather to the US West Coast along with the benefit of increased potential for storm and swell enhancement. A moderate El Nino provides that storm and swell enhancement, but more of a gentle but steady push/momentum in-favor of storm development rather than the manic frenzy of a strong El Nino, without all the weather associated with a strong event. So in many ways a moderate El Nino is more favorable from a surf perspective. This was a moderate event. Better yet, if it's not too strong (as this event appears to be) perhaps it will not degrade into La Nina the year after (which typically happens after stronger El Nino's), but hold in some mild El Nino-like state for several years in a row. This would be an even better outcome and something we are monitoring for. The months of Mar-June normally are when the transition takes.cgiace.
See more details in the new El Nino update.
South Pacific
Beyond 72 hours the models suggest no swell producing fetch is to develop.
Details to follow...
****
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Local Interest
Stormsurf Precip Models Upgraded! On 2/20 we upgraded some of the broader precipitation models driven by the hi-def GFS model to include snow fall. The algorithm used is similar to the recently released snow models for the Southwest US in that the areas where snow is expected are identified and the exact amount of snow forecast over a 3 hr window is e.cgiicitly color coded. For East and West Coast US interests the following links provide good exa.cgies:
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East Coast: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=watla_precip
Stormsurf Weather Models have all been upgraded! Over the New Years break we installed all new and upgraded weather models. Also new are experimental snow models for the Southwest US. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_wx.html
Read about Eric Nelson and Curt Myers, the makers of Ride-On and other Big Wave Surf Movies here: http://coastviewsmag.com/powerlines-productions-filming-the-art-of-big-wave-surfing
Ride On! Powerlines new big wave epic is now available on DVD. Get the entire big wave story of the 2008-2009 season here: http://www.mavz.com/
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Casa Noble Tequila If you are looking for an exquisite experience in fine tequila tasting, one we highly recommend, try Case Noble. Consistently rated the best tequila when compared to any other. Available at BevMo (in California). Read more here: http://www.casanoble.com/ |
Interview With Stormsurf: The crew at SurfScience.com worked with Stormsurf on a feature about why surfers should be able to read wave charts themselves. They are firm believers that a little learning can go a long way to help your surfing. This is a great article to help convince your friends that they can benefit from being able to read the data themsleves rather than just relying on the forecasts of others. See the full thing here: Create Your Own Surf Forecast with Stormsurf
North California Surf Report Works Again: After an extended downtime we finally got the North California Surf Report working again. Thanks for your patience. See it here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/report/ncal.html
Shark Video: Our friend Curt Myers of Powerlines productions shot this footage of 2 great whites munching on a whale carcass off Devils Slide (south of San Francisco) on Thursday. Kind of interesting to watch. Check it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I4rZYEZMWQ (Fixed link)
Wave Model Upgrade Status Report: At this point we believe the installation of the new wave models is complete, with no problems being reported, the server stabilizing and the much requested return of the old style hemispheric Surf Height models now operational (again) and running side-by-side along the new ones. We thank you for your patience and input as we went though this process. Your feedback helps guide our efforts and ultimately results in a better product for everyone. Now we're off to start providing better menus to some wave model products most of you probably haven't uncovered yet (site specific graph and text forecasts), updateing the wave model FAQs and then upgrading the Weather Models.
New Wave Model Facts: Click HERE to read more about the new wave models. Important info.
Stormsurf Wave Models Updated: On Friday (2/6) we installed the latest upgrade to our wavemodels. A year in the works, this upgrade essentially is a total re-write of every wave model product we produce. They now take advantage of the new Version 3 of the Wavewatch wavemodel. This version runs at a much higher resolution, specifically 0.0 X 0.5 degrees for the global grib with local products at 0.1667 X 0.1667 degrees, and it uses the hi-res GFS model for wind speeds. And of even more interest, the model now identifies primary swell and windwave variables. As such we now have new model images which displays this data. Also we've included out special 3D topographic land masks into all models. In all it makes for a radical step forward in wave model technology. We'll be upgrading minor components (FAQ, new menu pages etc) for a few weeks to come, but all the basics are available for your use now. Check it out here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_wam.html
Story About Stormsurf: The folks at SurfPulse (and specifically author Mike Wallace) have written up a really nice article about Stormsurf, complete with some good pics. Learn about how we came to be and a little of where we are going. Check it out here: http://www.surfpulse.com/2009/01/visceral-surf-forecasting-with-mark-sponsler/
Stormsurf Video: Just for fun - here's a clip about Stormsurf that ran on Bay Area TV a while back. Thought you might enjoy it: http://vimeo.com/2319455
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Need Chiropractic Help? Visit our friends at Darrow Chiropractic. Not only will Dr. Darrow fix you up, he might give you some big wave surfing tips too! See more here: http://www.darrowchiropractic.com/
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table
