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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, June 1, 2017 2:51 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.0 - California & 1.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 5/29 thru Sun 6/4

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small SE Pacific Swell Targeting CA
Maybe One Weak Pulse to Follow

BUOY ROUNDUP

On Thursday, June 1, 2017 :

  • Buoy 146 (Lanai): This buoy is down and there is no backup site.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 13.5 secs from 230 degrees. Wind southwest 6 kts. Water temperature 63.9 degs. At Ventura swell was 1.7 ft @ 6.4 secs from 269 degrees. At Santa Monica swell was 1.3 ft @ 13.7 secs from 220 degrees. At Camp Pendleton swell was 1.3 ft @ 13.5 secs from 220 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma swell was 2.7 ft @ 8.4 secs from 271 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.0 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 11.2 secs from 272 degrees. Wind northwest 4-6 kts at the buoy. Water temp 56.3 degs.
    Notes

    46006, 46059, Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (6/1) in North and Central CA Gulf windswell was producing surf at chest high at exposed breaks and clean but enshrouded in fog early. Protected breaks were thigh to waist to near chest high and soft but clean and lined up. At Santa Cruz the last of the New Zealand swell was producing sets waves at waist high and clean but pretty weak. In Southern California up north local windswell was producing surf that was thigh high on the sets and clean early. In North Orange Co the last of the New Zealand swell was producing surf to chest high and clean early. In South Orange Co New Zealand/southern hemi swell was still producing sets at shoulder to head high and clean. In San Diego surf was waist high clean and unremarkable. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was still getting background southern hemi swell with waves waist high and clean and lined up. The East Shore was getting small east windswell with waves thigh high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (6/1) swell from a modest sized gale that developed in the Central South Pacific on Thurs (5/25) producing 31 ft seas for 15 hrs aimed somewhat to the northeast was tracking north towards California and points south of there for the weekend. A far weaker gale developed in the same place on Tues (5/30) with barely 28 ft seas resulting. Nothing else is on the charts for the next 7 days down south. In the Northern Hemisphere weak low pressure generated 15 ft seas in the Gulf of Alaska Sun-Mon (5/29) with swell from that hitting California now. Another similar gale is forecast for the Gulf on Sat-Mon (6/6). Otherwise minimal local east windswell is forecast holding in Hawaii through Sun (6/4) and unremarkable local north windswell developing for California Sat-Tues (6/6).

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday (6/1) windswell from a low pressure system previously in the Gulf of Alaska was hitting California (see Gulf Low Pressure below). Today weak low pressure was still circulating in the Gulf of Alaska producing no fetch of interest. High pressure was northwest of Hawaii ridging east under the above low and producing 15 kt east trades from 1000 nmiles east of Hawaii over the Islands resulting in minimal east windswell on east facing shores there. No fetch of interest was occurring along the California coast.

Over the next 72 hours low pressure is to rebuild in the Gulf possibly setting up windswell (see Another Gulf Low below). Relative to Hawaii, high pressure is to start moving east positioned north of Hawaii on Sat (6/3) continuing to generate east trades at 15+ kts pushing over the Islands resulting in more minimal east windswell along east facing shores of all Islands. But by Sun (6/4) low pressure in the Gulf is to again surge some cutting into the high and reducing the fetch with windswell starting to fade.

Relative to California, with the high pressure system tracking east on Sat (6/3) north winds to start rebuilding to 20 kts later along the North and Central coasts producing local windswell. That fetch is to build on Sun (6/4) to 25 kts covering the entire coast then lifting north on Mon (6/5) with 25-30 kt north winds over all of North CA and south to Monterey Bay, before lifting further north on Tues (6/6) covering only Cape Mendocino and fading from 25 kts. North windswell to vary in size commensurate with the strength and size of the fetch.

 

Gulf Low Pressure
On Sunday (5/28) a weak low pressure system developed 900 nmiles north of Hawaii Sat PM (5/27) starting to get traction on the oceans surface with seas to 15 ft at 40N 166W. By Sun AM (5/28) that fetch was falling southeast still producing 25-30 kt west winds and seas building to near 16 ft at 39N 1161 somewhat targeting Hawaii. In the evening more of the same is forecast with the fetch moves east of Hawaii with seas to 15 ft at 38N 154W. By Mon AM (5/29) the gale is to be gone. Maybe some windswell to result for exposed northwest facing shores of Hawaii.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/1) pushing 4 ft @ 10-11 secs late morning (4.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (6/2) from 3.7 ft @ 10-11 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 287 degrees

 

Another Gulf Low
On Sat AM (6/3) low pressure is to be tracking through the Western Gulf producing a small fetch of 30 kts southwest winds with seas building from 14 ft at 44n 166W. Fetch to build to 35 kts in the evening tracking east with seas building to 17 ft at 44N 161W. Southwest fetch is to track east Sun AM (6/4) at 30 kts with seas fading from 15 ft at 44N 154W. The gale is to fade from there. Low odds of swell result for Hawaii or California given the southwesterly direction of the fetch.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (6/1) weak high pressure at 1024 mbs was well west of the California coast generating only a small gradient over Pt Conception with north winds there to 20 kts, but calm to light north elsewhere. On Friday (6/2) the high pressure system is to start building into the coast with northwest winds building to 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA by afternoon. The gradient is to build some on Sat (6/3) while lifting north with north winds 20 kts for all of North and Central CA starting to build over the Channel Islands later. The high is to move east on Sun AM (6/4) at 1026 mbs just 600 nmiles off San Francisco with the gradient building and north winds 25 kts for all of North and Central CA. More of the same on Mon (6/5) but with the gradient edging northward with 30 kts north winds over North CA but 20-25 kts for the Central CA and starting to retract there after dark. Finally Tuesday (6/6) the gradient is to lift north with north winds 25-30 kts isolated to Cape Mendocino with an eddy flow (south winds) developing for Central CA northward to Bodega Bay and then the gradient fading late in the day. Wed (6/7) north winds to be fading from 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino with light winds south of there. Thurs (6/8) light winds are forecast everywhere over CA waters with light south winds for Cape Mendocino.

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday AM (6/1) a split zonal flow was in effect with the northern branch tracking east on the 26N latitude line and the southern branch running east on the 60S latitude line. No troughs were in play and winds were generally less than 100 kts in the Hawaii and California swell windows offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast with no troughs of interest forecast developing.
Beyond 72 hours starting Sun (6/4) more of the same is forecast. A trough previously forecast building south of New Zealand on Tues (6/6) has vanished from the charts. There's no hope for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere based on the upper level flow.

Surface Analysis  
On Thursday (6/1) swell from a gale previously in the South Central Pacific was tracking north towards California (see South Central Pacific Gale below). And another gale developed behind that in the Southeast Pacific possibly sending tiny background swell towards CA (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

South Central Pacific Gale
A gale started developing in the Central South Pacific on Wed PM (5/24) with 40 kt southwest winds over a small area building and seas building. On Thurs AM (5/25) the fetch built in coverage with southwest winds 40 kts and seas to barely 28 ft at 52S 151W. In the evening fetch was starting to fade from 40 kts over a broad area with 31 ft seas at 56S 155W aimed decently to the northeast. Fri AM (5/26) the fetch faded from 35 kts but pushing well to the north-northeast with seas fading from 27 ft at at 54S 147W. In the evening this system was gone. Possible small swell to result mainly for the US West Coast down into Central and South America.

Southern California: Expect swell arrival on Fri (6/2) building to 2.3 ft @ 18 secs late (4.0 ft). Swell is to build on Sat (6/3) to 2.6 ft @ 17 secs early (4.5 ft) holding through the day. Swell continues on Sun (6/4) at 2.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (6/5) from 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Tues (6/6) from 1.9 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (6/2) building to 1.8 ft @ 18-19 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell is to build on Sat (6/3) to 2.1 ft @ 17 secs late (3.5 ft). Swell continues on Sun (6/4) at 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (6/5) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell DIrection: 195 degrees

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
A small gale developed in the South Central Pacific Mon PM (5/29) producing a broad area of 35 kt southwest winds and 26 ft seas at 54S 142W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (5/30) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts with seas 28 ft at 51S 135W aimed well to the northeast. The gale to fade from there while quickly moving east out of the California swell window. Tiny background swell is possible for California down into Central and South America.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (6/6) at 1.8 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Wed (6/7) at 2.1 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) with secondary swell 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (6/8) from 1.7 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) with secondary swell 1.7 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (6/6) building to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.5 ft). Swell building Wed (6/7) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft) early. Swell gone on Thurs (6/8). Swell Direction: 191 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no local windswell producing fetch is forecast. And a placid pattern is to set up over the bulk of the North Pacific.

 
South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell of interest is forecast.

More details to follow...

 

Inactive MJO In Control - SSTs Continue Cooling

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Wednesday (5/31) east winds were over the entire equatorial Pacific including the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were neutral in most locations but modest easterly in the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): Moderate east anomalies were over the KWGA but forecast to quickly fade by 6/3 and neutral at the end of the forecast period (6/8) with west anomalies starting to develop in the west KWGA. This suggests the Inactive Phase of the MJO is fading over the KWGA with the Active Phase perhaps moving in.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: As of 5/31 a modest Inactive/Dry Phase of the MJO was over the West Pacific drifting east. The statistic model projects the Inactive Phase is to die 7 days out with a weak Active/Wet pattern taking control and holding for the second week of the forecast run. The dynamic model depicts the Inactive Phase dissipating 4 days out then redeveloping weakly in the West Pacific in week 2.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/1) The ECMF model indicates the Active Phase of the MJO was modest over the East Indian Ocean and is hold while moving to the Maritime Continent 1 week out, then collapsing there 2 weeks out. The GEFS depicts much the same thing. These models run about a week ahead of what occurs down at the surface.
40 day Upper Level Model: (6/1) This model depicts a moderate Active pattern was over the West Pacific and is to track east into Central America 6/26. The Inactive Phase to follow modestly in the West Pacific 6/21 moving into Central America 7/11. This model runs about 2 weeks ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (6/1) This model depicts a weak version of the Inactive Phase of the MJO was fading on the dateline with light east anomalies in play in the KWGA but almost gone. Beyond the Active Phase is to develop on 6/9 with weak west anomalies developing and holding even though the Inactive Phase is to redevelop slightly around 7/3. The Active Phase of the MJO is to fully develop in the West Pacific on 7/13 with building west anomalies, getting solid 7/27 and holding decently through 8/20, fading some into 8/29 (the end of the run). This is likely overstated as the model has been teasing at west anomalies for months and yet they never develop. The low pass filter indicates La Nina is to hold on in the KWGA till 6/16 (previously 5/6-5/8). La Nina might weakly redevelop 7/19 with the core just east of California rather than over the KWGA. Best guess is a very weak directionless pattern is to set up post La Nina and it will take 3-5 years for the Pacific to recharge from the 2014-16 El Nino.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/1) Actual temperatures remain stratified with warm water in the West Pacific at 30 degs no longer on the chart. The 28 deg isotherm line is steady at 145W. The 24 isotherm reaches Ecuador down at 40 meters and is building to 90 meters at 140W. Warm anomalies are building to +3 degs in the East Pacific and +1 deg anomalies are in the West Pacific down at 100m. Continuous 0 to +1 degs anomalies stretch from the west to the east. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/28 depicts that warm water is in the East Pac at +2 degs. And the warm pocket at 180W down 150m is fading from +1-2 degs. A warm stream is tracking from the west to the east suggesting a Kelvin Wave is in flight. The concern is there is not much warm water in the far West Pacific to feed any sort of a progressive Kelvin Wave pattern and that pattern is only getting more pronounced. The GODAS image appears to be about 1 week behind the TAO data.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/28) +5 cm anomalies are along the coast of Peru and Ecuador but small in coverage and shrinking. In the west 0-5 cm anomalies are retreating from the KWGA moving west. A tongue of warm water previously reaching to 120W has vanished with only one pocket of weakly positive heights remain at 125W. A neutral to weak warm trend was suggested per this imagery.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (5/31) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a generalized warm pattern is still present along outer waters along the coasts of Northern Chile and Peru north to Ecuador then extending west over the Galapagos and out to sea out to 160W. But the warmth in this entire area is fading significantly compared to a few weeks ago. And upwelling along the immediate coasts of Peru and North Chile continues to build with weak cool anomalies extending from Ecuador out to the Galapagos. Looking at the large picture, warming in the southern hemi that extends east thousands of miles off the coast of South America as far south as 20S or more has backed off over the entire area. It is not well defined with most warming now from 120W and points west of there. La Nina is gone and the El Nino like pattern that was trying to build is now backing off compared to 2 weeks ago.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (5/30): A cooling trend continues off Ecuador over the Galapagos out to 100W with very weak cooling along immediate Chile and Peru. This replaces a warming trend over the same area 2 weeks or more ago. A warming trend is present in the Northern Hemi from a point off California pushing over Hawaii and reaching west to the Philippines. But overall nothing remarkable is indicated.
Hi-res Overview:
(5/30) A solid warm regime holds from Chile north to Ecuador and west to 160W and less energetic out to the dateline. It looks like El Nino is trying to develop and making headway into the Nino3.4 region. Overall waters of all oceans of the planet are warmer than normal. Suspect climatology needs to be updated to reflect this new reality, or the recent Super El Nino has significantly redistributed heat across the oceans.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/1) Today's temps have stabilized but much cooler than weeks before at -0.515, down from the peak of +3.0 degs on 3/18.  
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (6/1) temps were stable at +0.491 degs.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/1) The forecast has temps steady at +0.5 degs today into mid-June then falling to +0.2 in early Aug rebuilding to +0.3 degs in Oct, then falling to neutral in Dec-Jan 2018. This suggests normal to weakly warm pattern developing for the Winter of 2017-2018. CFS data suggests a Modoki style warming pattern over the dateline this Fall and Winter. La Nina is over and a return to normal temps appears to have occurred in the ocean. There is no source for greater warming with the warm pool in the far West Pacific pretty weak. Much recharging and heat buildup is required for a real El Nino to develop. We're at least 5 years out from that.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-May Plume updated (5/19) depicts temps are warming and are now at +0.5 degs. A slow increase in temps is forecast thereafter to +0.7 degs in Aug and holding through Dec, then falling to 0.6 degs in Jan. This is +0.1 degs warmer than the April forecast and +0.7 degs warmer than the January forecast suggesting La Nina is over and a warmer regime is setting up. See chart here - link.  The NMME consensus depicts peak temp to +1.0 degs Nov through Jan.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (6/1): The daily index was falling to -3.80. It had been positive for 7 days prior. The 30 day average was rising at +1.11. The 90 day average was steady at -0.53 or just south of neutral. This suggests a return to ENSO neutral conditions has taken hold.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (6/1) Today's value was falling at -0.92 or trending back to La Nina. A peak low was reached on 11/2 at -1.94, the deepest of the past La Nina event. This measures atmospheric response, not oceanic.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO continues positive, though much weaker lately (as expected with La Nina setting in).
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.10, Feb = +0.03, March = +0.09, April=+0.52 . This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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