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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, June 2, 2018 2:48 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
1.5 - California & 2.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 6/4 thru Sun 6/10

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small New Zealand Swell Pushing Towards HI
Solid Gale Developing in Deep Central SPac

BUOY ROUNDUP

On Saturday, June 2, 2018 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 5.0 secs with swell 1.0 ft @ 14.6 secs from 169 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 1.0 ft @ 16.3 secs from 211 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 61.9 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 2.2 ft @ 7.4 secs from 268 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.8 ft @ 19.5 secs from 235 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 0.8 ft @ 19.6 secs from 228 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.0 ft @ 19.6 secs from 229 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.9 ft @ 8.3 secs with northwest windswell 5.5 ft @ 8.4 secs from 312 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 12-14 kts. Water temp 52.9 degs.

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (6/2) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf at waist high or so and fairly clean but lumpy and unorganized but still somewhat rideable. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and cleaner but still a little warbled. At Santa Cruz rare sets were knee high and clean. In Southern California up north surf was knee to thigh high and clean and soft. In North Orange Co northwest windswell was producing waves at knee to maybe thigh high on the bigger sets and clean and soft. South Orange Country's best breaks had some waist high peaks and clean and lined up and very slow. In North San Diego surf was knee high or so and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting a few stray waist high sets and clean but with some trade wind warble on the surface. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high and chopped by east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (6/2) no swell of interest was hitting either California or Hawaii. Minimal local windswell was impacting exposed breaks in North and Central CA but unremarkable. A small cutoff gale formed southeast of New Zealand on Mon (5/28) producing a short lived and small area of 30 ft seas aimed north. Small swell is radiating north towards Hawaii. A decent gale has developed in the deep Central South Pacific Fri-Sun (6/3) pushing north and producing seas to 37 ft. And secondary energy is to follow Sun-Mon (6/4) adding more 37 ft sea on top pushing northeast. So a decent run of southern hemi swell looks possible for California with some sideband energy for Hawaii. And another broader but weaker system is forecast to traverse the Southwest Pacific Wed-Fri (6/8) with 33 ft seas aimed east.

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday AM (6/2) local northwest windswell was the only energy in the North Pacific hitting breaks limited to North and Central CA. But a weak gale is actually producing some seas of interest over the North Dateline region (see North Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

North Dateline Gale
A weak gale formed just west of the North Dateline region on Fri PM (6/1) with 40 kt west winds over a small area aimed east and seas building from 20 ft at 49.0N 171E. The gale was impacting the Aleutians on the dateline Sat AM (6/2) with 35-40 kt west winds and seas to 28 ft over a tiny area at 50.5N 177.5E, then is to quickly quickly fading. Small swell is possible radiating mainly east towards the US West Coast.

Hawaii: Sideband swell to arrive on Wed (6/6) pushing 1.3 ft @ 12-13 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs AM (6/7) from 1.4 ft @ 11 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs AM (6/7) with swell building mid-AM to 2.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading Fri AM (6/8) from 2.4 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 306 degrees

 

Windswell Forecast
California: On Sat (6/2) high pressure north of Hawaii is to pulse east a little with north winds again on the increase at 20+ kts mainly over North CA and off the coast of Central CA and expected to build some into Sun (6/3) with 25 kt north winds extending from Cape Mendocino to Pt Reyes and 20 kt north winds down to Morro Bay later. Raw local windswell production is likely. That fetch is to build south by Mon AM (6/4) as high pressure rebuilds north of Hawaii at 1032 mbs ridging east into North CA resulting in north winds at 25 kts over most of North CA and all of Central CA down to Pt Conception. The gradient is to weaken some over a shallower footprint on early Tues (6/5) with north winds 20-25 kts hugging the North and Central coasts with the stronger winds becoming isolated to North CA in the late afternoon. Windswell to result. See QuikCASTs for details.

Hawaii: On Sat (6/2) east fetch associated with high pressure north of the Islands is to be be spotty in coverage at 15 kts east of the Islands offering no real potential to generate easterly windswell. But on Sun (6/3) there suggestions the fetch could rebuild to 15 kts continuous over a shallow area limited to within 600 nmiles east of the Islands perhaps enabling a little more easterly windswell to result. That fetch is to hold if not build to near 20 kts in pockets on Mon (6/4) then fade to 15 kts on Tues (6/5). Windswell to result. See QuikCASTs for details.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday AM (6/2) modest high pressure at 1026 mbs was ridging into Central CA generating a pressure gradient and north winds at 20+ kts mainly along the North CA coast generating windswell there and radiating southward with 15-20 kt north winds off the Central CA coast. The gradient builds some Sun (6/3) with high pressure up to 1034 mbs northeast of Hawaii ridging east towards Oregon with north winds 25 kts over a small area over the North CA coast and 20 kts just off the Central Coast. The gradient and north winds to build Mon (6/4) at 25 kts over all of Central CA and up to Pt Arena in North CA then fading some on Tues (6/5) at 20-25 kts early fading to 20 kts over Central CA later and 25 kts over North CA. On Wed (6/6) north winds to be 20 kts along the coast of all of North and Central CA fading to 15 kts later. On Thurs (6/7) 15-20 kt north winds to be covering nearshore waters of all of North and Central CA continuing Fri (6/8) and up to 25 kts over Pt Conception. Sat (6/9) the gradient is to hold with 20 kts north winds from Cape Mendocino south to Pt Conception and up to 25 kts over the south end of Central CA. Basically a wind blown mess with upwelling and colder water.

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday AM (6/2) the southern branch of the jetstream was ridging south under New Zealand down at 62S pushing east to about 155W then starting to track north forming a trough being fed by relatively weak winds at 110 kts offering some support for gale development. East of there at 110W and east of the California swell window another ridge was in control continuing under South America. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to hold form and ease east into early Mon (6/4) but with winds falling below 100 kts early on Sunday (6/3) with support for gale development fading. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (6/5) the southern branch of the jet is to start building in strength on Tues (6/5) south of New Zealand at 170 kts pushing east at 60S forming a bit of a trough just southeast of New Zealand with that trough tracking east while weakening into Fri (6/8) moving east to 150W offering some support for gale development but tracking due east with no northward motion indicated. That trough is to weaken into Sat (6/9) but still filling the deep South Pacific.

Surface Analysis  
On Saturday (6/2) the last of the Tasman Sea background swell was fading out in Hawaii and starting to arrive in California, but weak. Also swell from a gale previously southeast of New Zealand is supposedly radiating north (See New Zealand Gale below). And swell from a new gale system was evolving in the deep South Central Pacific (see South Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no additional swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

3rd Tasman Sea Gale
A stronger storm started developing on Wed AM (5/23) under Tasmania with a broad area of 45 kt southwest winds aimed northeast and seas 39 ft at 51S 149E aimed northeast. In the evening 40-45 kt southwest winds continued lifting northeast with 41 ft seas at 49S 152.5E. On Thurs AM (5/24) fetch regenerated some while lifting north into the core of the Tasman Sea at 45 kts and 41 ft seas at 44.5S 159E. The gale is to lift north on the evening with 35-40 kt south winds and seas 37 ft at 39S 163E aimed north. South fetch is to be fading in the evening from 30 kts and seas fading from 31 ft at 33S 168E just off the northwest most point of New Zealand. The gale to be gone after that. Large swell is expected for Fiji on Sun (5/27) (local time) with filtered swell radiating northeast towards Hawaii.

Hawaii: Swell fading Sat (6/2) from 1.2 ft @ 14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 215 degrees

Southern CA: Small swell possible starting on Sat (6/2) pushing 1 ft @ 19 secs late (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell building on Sun (6/3) to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Peaking on Mon (6/4) at 1.5 ft @ 16 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Tues (6/5) from 1.2 ft @ 15 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 231 degrees

Northern CA: Small swell possible starting on Sun (6/3) to 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Peaking on Mon (6/4) at 1.2 ft @ 16 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (6/5) from 1.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 229 degrees

 

New Zealand Gale
A gale developed southeast of New Zealand Sun PM (5/27) generating south winds at 40-45 kts over a small area aimed north with seas building from 28 ft over a small area at 47S 172W. By Mon AM (5/28) south winds continued at 40-45 kts with seas building to 29 ft at 47.5S 168W. South fetch faded some in the evening at 40 kts with seas holding at 29-30 ft at 46.5S 164W. On Tues AM (5/29) south fetch faded from 30 kts with seas fading from 25 ft over a small area at 44.5S 165W. Some limited south swell could reach Tahiti and Hawaii. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/3) building to 1.6 ft @ 17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell to build more on Mon (6/4) pushing 2.3 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft) later. Swell fading some on Tues (6/5) dropping from 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

South CA: Possible small swell arriving on Wed (6/6) building to 1.2 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell continues on Thurs (6/7) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) early. Swell gone after that. Swell Direction 216 degrees

North CA: Small swell arriving on Wed (6/6) building to 1.5 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Thurs (6/7) at 1.6 ft @ 15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) early. Swell fading Fri (6/8) from 1.4 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction 215 degrees

 

South Pacific Gale
A new gale developed in the deep Central South Pacific on Fri AM (6/1) generating a decent sized area of 45 kt south winds with seas building from 30 ft at 62S 163.5W. In the evening the fetch is to lift north with a broader core of 45 kt south winds with 36 ft seas over a building area at 58S 157.5W. On Sat AM (6/2) 40 kt south winds continued lifting north with seas 37 ft at 53.5S 151W. In the evening southwest fetch is to rapidly fade to 30 kts and seas fading from 32 ft at 49S 150W as a new fetch starts developing southwest of the original fetch producing south winds at 50 kts and seas building from 36 ft at 58S 166W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (6/3) 45 kt south winds are to be lifting northeast with seas 38 ft at 53.5S 155W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to fade from 40-45 kts from the southwest with seas 38 ft at 49.5S 144W. On Mon AM (6/40 fetch is to fade from 30-35 kts with seas 32 ft at 48.5S 139.5W aimed northeast. This system is to fade from there. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Fri (6/8) building to 2.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell peaking on Sat (6/9) building to 2.3 ft @ 16 secs mid-AM (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 181 degrees

Southern CA: Swell arrival on Sat (6/9) building to 1.9 ft @ 20 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees

North CA: Swell arrival on Sat (6/9) building to 1.0 ft @ 10 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

Windswell Forecast
California:
By Wednesday (6/6) the gradient is to weaken as low pressure start moving through the Northeastern Gulf of Alaska with north winds dropping to 20 kts early over the entire North and Central coasts fading to 15 kts in the afternoon and continuing on Thurs (6/7). Only weak short period windswell is to result. There's some indication the high is to rejuvenate some on Fri (6/8) with north winds 20 kts building over all of North and Central CA holding on Sat (6/9) with up to 25 kts over Pt Conception. Junky short period windswell possible. .

Hawaii: Starting on Wed (6/6) 15 kt east winds to become more broken up and still only over a shallow area east of the Islands offering minimal to no support for windswell production. Thurs (6/7) 15 kt east trades to become more continuous and over a larger area with windswell production increasing somewhat and that fetch area building Fri (6/8) filling the area from California to Hawaii with 15+ kt east winds and continuing Sat (6/9). Improving odds for east windswell production.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a new gale is to start building south-southeast of New Zealand on Wed AM (6/6) with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 34 ft at 60S 174E. In the evening 35-40 kt southwest winds are to be pushing due east with seas 34 ft at 58S 167W aimed east-northeast. On Thurs AM (6/70 a large area of 35-40 kts southwest winds are to be covering the Southwest Pacific with seas 33 ft at 58S 169W aimed east-northeast. In the evening a broad fetch of southwest winds at 35-40 kts is to be plodding eastward with 33 ft seas at 55S 160W. Fri AM (6/8) 35 kt southwest winds to be fading but still over a broad area with 32 ft seas at 59S 153W aimed east-northeast. In the evening west fetch is to be fading from 30 kts still over a broad area but all aimed east now with 30 ft seas fading at 59S 142W. The gale to fade from there.

More details to follow...

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

Large Kelvin Wave Appears To Be Erupting East of the Galapagos

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, suggesting the demise of La Nina.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2018 - Swell Generation Potential (for California & Hawaii) = 4.0
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large long period swells)

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Fri (6/1) 5 day average winds were from the east over the bulk of the equatorial Pacific and also over the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were light east over the equatorial East Pacific and also over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/2) Modest east anomalies were over the eastern half of the KWGA with light west anomalies over the far west KWGA. The forecast suggests east anomalies are to hold east of 150E thru 6/5 then retrograding west and effectively filling the KWGA at the end of the model run on 6/9. This Inactive Phase of the MJO is stronger than expected and now unfortunately is to not move east as previously expected. A westerly wind burst is currently occurring in the Indian Ocean associated with the Active Phase of the MJO there and is forecast to dissipate by 6/5 but not move east any.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/1) The Inactive/Dry Phase of the MJO was very weak and fading at 170W with the Active Phase is building over the Western KWGA. The statistical model depicts the Inactive/Dry Phase is to track east while weakening and out of the KWGA by day 3 while the Active Phase builds in from the west and filling the KWGA at day 8 and holding while easing east into day 15. The dynamic model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO pulsing/rebuilding in the West Pacific at day 3 and holding while fading over the West KWGA through day 15. So the 2 models remain very divergent in their forecasts but the dynamic model seems likely to be in error.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/2) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was modest over the Maritime Continent. It is to track east steadily while holding strength moving over the far West Pacific at day 5, stalling there and weakening to almost nothing at day 15. The GEFS model depicts the same thing but with the stall occurring over the Eastern Maritime Continent then retrograding thereafter to the Western Maritime Continent the last 5 days of the run.
40 day Upper Level Model: (6/2) This model depicts a weak Inactive Phase is fading over Central America and moving into the Atlantic while a new modest Active Phase is moving into the West Pacific. It is to track east and moving through the Pacific into Central America on 6/26. A weak Inactive Phase is to be developing over the West Pacific on 6/22 pushing to the East Pacific and Central America at 7/7 and into the Atlantic a t the end of the model run on 7/12. This model runs about 1-2 weeks ahead of what happens at the surface.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/1) East anomalies to hold from 150E and points east of there through 6/17.
West anomalies to be held to a point not reaching east of 150E through that same time period. But then east anomalies are to dissipate with west anomalies building in the west and east KWGA from 6/22 onward.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/2) This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO was past it's peak over the KWGA with modest east anomalies in control of the KWGA from 160E and points east of there. The Inactive Phase is to hold through 6/8 with east anomalies moving east to the dateline and west anomalies starting to build in from the west on 6/2. The Active Phase is to be in control on 6/9 in the West Pacific pushing east with weak west anomalies building in the KWGA and holding into 7/8 with west anomalies in control of the KWGA. A neutral MJO signal is to develop after that starting 7/12 holding through the end of the model run but with west anomalies holding in the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias is fully in control of the KWGA reaching east to 145W and forecast to hold if not ease east some for the foreseeable future if not building from 2 contour lines to 3 starting 7/2. This is good news for the coming Fall-Winter season. The high pressure bias is limited to an area south of California and shrinking at the end of the model run and inland over California. The La Nina bias is gone. The expectation is that the atmosphere and ocean will begin to be coupled 3 months after the start of the transition or on 8/8 (low pressure bias officially filled the KWGA starting on 5/8) in a more favorable configuration to support storm production in the Pacific.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/2) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs reaching east to 165E. The 28 deg isotherm line is stabilizing after moving eastward from the dateline last winter to 165W on 5/15 to 160W 5/22 and 159W on 5/29 and then back to 160W today from the surface to 75 meters deep. The 24 deg isotherm was thickening at 115 meters deep at 140W and 75 meters deep at 120W deepening to 40 meters into Ecuador. Anomaly wise in the East Pacific negative temperatures are gone as warm waters from a Kelvin Wave are building in from the west at depth. Warm anomalies at depth were easing east +3.0 degs at 145W down 150 meters pushing east now with +4 degs anomalies building in the east at 110W and reaching east to the Galapagos. These waters are starting to breach the surface from 125W and points east of there. It appears the Kelvin Wave is gaining eastward momentum. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/28 depicts warm water in the west at +4.0 degs at 160W with a river of warm water at +3 degs pushing continuously east to 100W with pockets reaching east from there to the Ecuadorian coast. The warm pool was breaching the surface between 100W-135W. No residual cool water from La Nina are indicated. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/28) This image has upgraded significantly again with the 528 update. Positive anomalies were solid from the West Equatorial Pacific to the east at +5-10 cms reaching from New Guinea to 120W with continuous 0-5 cm anomalies reaching east over the Galapagos to Ecuador (not just pockets as previously indicated). No negative anomalies were indicated including along the coast of Peru. The La Nina cool pool is gone.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/1) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate very weak localized cool anomalies along the immediate coast of Peru and very shallow. But of more significance was a building area of warm water erupting on the oceans surface on the equator from the Galapagos west to 125W and also over a broad but weaker pocket well south of the equator from 90W to 110W. A broad area of warming was also filling the area south of Mexico and out to the dateline. The remnants of the La Nina cool pool were south of the equator between 115W-170W and south of 4S.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/1): A neutral trend was indicated other than a pocket of weak warming over the equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos west to 140W and weaker out to the dateline. No pockets of cooling are indicated anywhere near the equator.
Hi-res Overview: (6/1) A few pixels of cool water was indicated along the immediate coast of Peru. Otherwise warm water was building from Ecuador west on the equator over the Galapagos and west from there to the dateline from 3S up to 20N and building in coherence. Weak warming was also further off the coast of Peru to 115W and reaching north to the equator. The only cool water was in the fading remnant pocket from La Nina limited to an area south of the equator between 150W-160W and south of 4S. Overall the cooling pattern is steadily loosing density and drifting west.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/2) Today's temps were fading some at -0.749, up from -0.819 on 5/22, and that down from a recent peak rising to +0.459 on 5/13. This is part of a larger rising trend stat started 4/10 indicative of the collapse of La Nina. Overall temps had been steadily marching upwards since late December. Peak low temps in this area occurred on 12/23/17 at -2.1 degs, -2.248 degs on 11/5/17, and -1.9 degs on 10/11/17.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/2) Today temps were falling slightly to -0.266, up from -0.427 on 5/12 after having reached up to -0.254 degs on 5/1. Temps have been steadily rising since 3/27 when they were down at -1.2 degs. Previous peak lows were observed on 1/10-1/12 to -1.577, -1.219 on 12/7, -1.156 on 11/22/17, and -1.1 on 11/23. The long arc suggests a rising pattern.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/2) The forecast depicts temps bottomed out at -0.75 in Nov 2017 and have been slowly rising since, up to -0.5 in mid-March and -0.30 in early April. The forecast calls for a steady increase from here forward with neutral temps now, pushing up to +0.60 degs in early July and rising in early Oct to +0.95 degs and +1.00 degs in Nov pushing +1.1 degs in Jan 2019. This suggests La Nina is gone and that perhaps El Nino is to build through the Summer and Fall of 2018. Most other models are also suggesting a possible turn to minimal weak El Nino conditions by late Fall.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-May Plume depicts temps at 0.0 degs as of 5/18 and are to slowly rise from here forward, to +0.4 in August and +0.7 in November and +0.8 in December hold there. See chart here - link. It looks like La Nina is fading out and a weak El Nino might develop. The CFSv2 is in the low end of that pack.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (negative is good, positive bad) (6/2): The daily index was falling today at -4.57. The 30 day average was falling some at +2.74 suggesting the Inactive Phase of the MJO was steady. The 90 day average was falling some at 4.74 suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was holding in the atmosphere biased towards La Nina. This is expected for a month or two more.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (6/21) Today the index was falling more at -0.89, down from -0.70 on 5/20 and -0.60 on 5/17, and the high of -0.36 on Fri (5/11) and -0.38 on Thurs (5/10), down from -0.35 on 4/26, but up from -1.02 on 4/5 and up from -1.13 on 3/27. The trend is upward but still less than the -0.33 reading in late Feb. That was was up from -1.11 on 1/29. The trend suggests La Nina is not gone, but fading steadily. Last years La Nina reached -1.94 on 11/2/16 and then fell to -2.20 on 6/28/17. It held pretty negative through Jan 2018. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events. The goal is to have it rise to at least -0.5 before a significant change could be suggested.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: April 2017=+0.53, May=+0.29, June=+0.21, July= -0.50, Aug= -0.62, Sept = -0.25, Oct= -0.61, Nov = -0.45, Dec= -0.13, Jan 2018=+0.29, Feb= -0.10, Mar= -0.51. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10, Aug=+0.09, Sept = +0.32, Oct=+0.05, Nov = +0.15, Dec = +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar = -0.05. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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