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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: June 7, 2005 9:11 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 1.7 - California & 4.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 6/6 thru Sun 6/12
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Utility swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of Utility swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Swell #2S Moves Towards Hawaii
Next Best Hope: Weak Storm South of Tahiti

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Tuesday (6/7) Northern CA surf was waist to chest high and relatively clean. South facing breaks were waist high. Central California was chest to near head high and blown in the afternoon. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were waist high with some bigger sets at the best breaks. The LA area southward into Orange County was waist high to chest high with best breaks head high on the sets. Southward to San Diego waves were waist high with occasional chest to head high sets at the best breaks. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was still in shape with waves waist to chest high. The East Shore was waist high.

Hawaii is still the place to be with fun southern hemi swell pushing in originating from the Tasman Sea with warm water and offshore winds. Southern California was also fun with waves in the waist to chest high range but not nearly as inviting. Windswell to fade out along the California coast while Hawaii get's ready for a good push of Southern Hemi energy by Thursday. Eventually this one will reach California too, but much smaller than what the Islands will see. The South Pacific pattern remains fairly weak, so make the most of whatever you have. See details below...

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SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
At the jetstream level on Tuesday (6/7) nothing of interest was occurring (animation here). Over the next 72 hours a zonal pattern (flat) is expected with no troughs or ridges forecast capable of supporting storm development at the surface.

At the surface today weak low pressure at 990 mbs was over the Aleutian Islands near Alaska. High pressure at 1026 mbs dominated the East Pacific centered 800 nmiles west of Pt Conception and trailing west to the dateline and beyond. Typhoon Nesat was positioned 550 nmiles south of Kure Japan drifting north with sustained winds 85 kts and seas to 34 ft aimed north and west. It is expected to turn northeast within 24 hours and rapidly deteriorate through Saturday (6/11) east of Japan (animation here). Over the next 72 hours high pressure at 1028 mbs to dominate the waters off California and north of Hawaii, but remain displaced south by low pressure moving more into the Gulf of Alaska. A weak gradient between the low and the high to produce some 25-30 kt west winds through Friday (6/10) aimed at Oregon north to Vancouver Island, but no swell is to result along the California coast. Otherwise no swell producing fetch forecast.

More model data here

 

California Offshore Forecast
Tuesday mornings local charts (6/7) depicted solid high pressure at 1026 mbs 1000 nmiles west of Pt Conception, CA holding stationary. It was was displaced a bit to the south of normal by weak high pressure moving into the northern Gulf of Alaska. This was displacing the core of the local north wind fetch towards Pt Conception instead of it's usual position off Cape Mendocino. This condition to hold through Friday (6/10) with suppressed local windswell in North and Central CA, then the low up north is to let up and the gradient is to track back north. By Sunday PM (6/12) the core fetch is to move to near Pt Arena, holding there into Wednesday (6/15). Windswell to start regenerating decently by late Saturday (6/11) and continue onwards.

The 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.

 

South Pacific

Overview
On Tuesday (6/7) no jetstream data was available. Government servers were experiencing difficulties and so our data feed and charts were out of date. The problem was being worked on and it looks like we should be up by this evening, but not in time for this forecast (animation here). Over the next 72 hours no upper level data available.

At the surface today strong high pressure at 1032 mbs remained centered in eastern South Pacific, ridging south to the eastern Ross Ice Shelf and closing off the storm corridor there. In the west the affects of an assumed upper trough off New Zealand was apparent with weak low pressure to the southeast. But it had no swell generation capacity. In general a neutral pattern was in place over the western South Pacific. Over the next 72 hours high pressure at 1028 mbs is to build over New Zealand keeping a lid on any storm development there. No swell producing fetch forecast (animation here).

More model data here

 

Fiji Storm
(We're including this mainly for the benefit of Fiji and because there's nothing else to forecast.)
Swell Generation Potential
This started out as a really impressive storm under Australia but quickly faded, and by the time the oceans surface started getting really agitated the core winds had already dropped off. But the models suggested those seas were to track north into the Tasman Sea with additional fetch acting on them to add more energy, though not as strong as the initial fetch. That sort of was happening, but nowhere near as strong as was originally forecast. Based on a mixture of confirmed and forecast data, a good amount of swell is to track northeast up through the Tasman Sea towards Fiji. Hawaii will get some fun size surf from whatever survives the shadow. If anything North California has a better chance of seeing some swell than South CA, but even that is splitting hairs. Impulse class potential at best there.

Surf Forecast
California is well down the road and will suffer a variety of setbacks including a small window to shoot the swell through (Tasman Sea), then getting shadowed by the Fiji Island chain, and then what survives that has a very long journey to cover before reaching the coast (6035-7509 nmiles). Forerunners expected to hit starting early Sunday (6/5) with period at 20 secs building slowly and peaking late Monday (6/6) through Tuesday evening (6/7) with swell 1.0-1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs. Residuals through Thursday (6/9) at 1.3-1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2 ft faces), then fading on Friday (6/10) with period down to 13-14 secs. Lucky if it's rideable. Swell Direction 228-235 degrees

 

Chilean Pulse (South CA)
On Saturday AM (5/28) a new 944 mb storm developed in the far Southeastern Pacific off Chile sitting in the upper trough there. It had confirmed winds of 40-45 kts aimed north but poorly organized by the evening and was looking even less organized Sunday AM (5/29). By Monday AM (5/30) pressure was 952 mbs with confirmed winds surprisingly up to 50 kts at 58S 103W aimed north-northwest up the 175 degree great circle path to Southern CA. But by the evening it faded to 35-40 kts. Seas built briefly to 27 ft at 55S 107W.

This should be good for a small pulse of south-southeast swell at the right breaks in Southern California. A second pulse is to arrive Monday (6/6) with swell building to 3 ft @ 15-16 secs late in the day (4.0-4.5 ft). Residuals expected on Tuesday (6/7) at 2.6 ft @ 14 secs (3.0-3.5 ft) and hanging on in the 2.6 ft @ 13-14 secs range (3 ft faces) through Thursday (6/9). Swell Direction 175-180 degrees.

Northern California is less clear cut, mainly because of the very steep southerly angle which will likely cut down the size at whatever breaks it does make it to. Rough data suggests swell to rebound to 2.2 ft @ 16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft faces) starting late Monday (6/6) fading through Wednesday (6/8). Only the most south fading breaks to see anything from this swell though and even that is not guaranteed. Swell Direction: 175-180 degrees

 

Swell #2S - Tiny New Zealand Storm (Hawaii)
Some fetch from a storm that pushed from the Tasman Sea across New Zealand started to redevelop just along the eastern New Zealand coast late Thursday (6/2) with pressure 980 mbs. By Friday AM (6/3) pressure dropped to 976 mbs with winds on the west side of the low confirmed up to 45-50 kts over a tiny area centered just south of Chatham Island (46S 178W) aimed up the 195 degree path to Hawaii and the 215-218 degree path to California. Seas were building. In the evening pressure held with winds continuing solid at 45-50 kts in roughly the same location just positioned a few degree north. Seas were modeled at 29 ft over a tiny area centered at 42S 177W.

Early Saturday (6/4) the low drifted east with pressure up to 980 mbs while the fetch started fading at 40-45 kts over a tiny area a little further north located at 40S 177W. Winds were aimed well at Hawaii up the 195 degree path and California up the 220 degree paths. Seas built to 30 ft centered at 40S 177W. In the evening the low was fading with pressure at 984 mbs while a tiny fetch of barely 40 kt winds continued over Chatham Island. Seas were modeled at 29 ft centered at 37S 174W and were fading fast.

On Tuesday (6/7) buoy 51028 started to detect some early signs of this swell as it crossed the equator heading towards Hawaii. This buoy was positioned a bit too far east to accurately gauge the energy moving towards Hawaii and a bit too far west to gauge what was tracking towards the US mainland. Regardless pure swell was about 2.6 ft @ 17 secs and heading up.

The fetch in this system tracked northeast as it moved from the west quadrant into the storms north quadrant, allowing it's winds to act on already agitated seas and providing a little bit more push to the resulting swell. Still, this was a very small fetch area limiting it's swell generation potential. At this time there's some hope for a decent swell for Hawaii due to their relative proximity to this tiny fetch (3636-3964) but less for California due to decay as the swell makes the long journey northeast towards the coast (5267-5577).

Hawaii: Expect a solid dose of swell from this system starting early on Thursday (6/9) with period at 17-18 secs and size tiny but building through the day reaching 3 ft @ 17 secs by sunset (4-5 ft faces). Size to be building more through the morning Friday (6/10) and be maxing by mid-afternoon with swell 4.6 ft @ 16 secs (6.5-7.5 ft faces - up to 8-9 ft a breaks with good bathymetry) and size continuing up even a little more. Swell to peak overnight into first light Saturday (6/11) with pure swell 4.7 ft @ 15 secs (7 ft faces - 9 ft at best breaks). Size to continue solid through mid-afternoon, the start heading down as period drops off. Rideable energy to continue into Sunday (6/12) with swell 3.6 ft @ 13 secs but heading down (4.0-4.5 ft faces). 11-12 sec residuals to continue on Monday (6/13) but dropping steadily. Swell Direction: 195-197 degrees

South California: Expect swell arrival starting Sunday (6/12) near sunrise with period at 17-18 secs and size tiny if even noticeable. Size building to rideable by sunset as period moves to 17 secs solid. Swell to continue up on Monday (6/13) with period at 16 secs, starting to peak late afternoon with pure swell 2.8 ft @ 15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces). Solid residuals to continue on Tuesday (6/14) with period at 14 secs, and size slowly drifting down through the day. Swell fading out on Wednesday (6/15) with period at 13 secs. Swell Direction: 217-220 degrees

North California: Expect swell arrival starting Sunday (6/12) just after sunrise with period at 17-18 secs and size tiny if even noticeable. Size building to rideable by 11 PM as period moves to 17 secs solid. Swell to continue up on Monday (6/13) with period at 16 secs, starting to peak late afternoon with pure swell 2.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces). Solid residuals to continue on Tuesday (6/14) with period at 14 secs near noon, and size slowly drifting down through the afternoon. Swell fading out on Wednesday (6/15) with period at 13-14 secs early and heading down. Swell Direction: 218-221 degrees

 

QuikCAST

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Tuesdays models (6/7) indicated that beyond 72 hours in the upper levels no troughs are forecast capable of supporting surface level swell generation. At the surface weak low pressure is to continue in the northern Gulf of Alaska, but the overriding weather system is to be high pressure at 1028 mbs hanging 1000 nmiles west of Central California. This is to continue the local coastal gradient there with north winds and north windswell continuing. Otherwise no swell producing fetch forecast.

 

MJO Update
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has returned to a near neutral condition. The negative readings that have denominated for the past 21 days (through 6/4) associated with the active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation are over. Forecast models suggest that a neutral pattern to continue through the end of the month with no obvious signs of the MJO (active or otherwise) depicted.

 

South Pacific

On Tuesday (6/7) beyond 72 hours out no upper data was available.

At the surface this weekend two high pressure systems are to dominate, one in the east and another in the west. A weak 980 mb low is forecast to develop south of Tahiti located mid-way between these two highs. Fleeting pockets of 40-45 kt fetch are forecast in this lows west and northwest quadrants aimed generally towards the US mainland and tiny in areal coverage, but are to be too short lived to get good traction on the oceans surface. A brief 12 hour spurt of 28 ft seas forecast late Friday (6/10) and another one on Sunday (6/12) to produce near 30 ft seas over a tiny area. Some swell should result if this comes to pass, but it's way to early to expect this outcome with any certainty. Will monitor. Otherwise no swell producing fetch forecast.

Details to follow...


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Local Interest

El Nino Forecast Updated: Check out all the latest indicators to get a handle on how the Summer and Fall seasons could unfold. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/current.shtml

Big Florida Swell: A strong gale pushed off Cape Hatteras on 4/15 generating solid seas and a 70 ft rogue wave that hit a cruise ship before proceeded south to make solid waves for the Southeast US coast. Matt Kechele was there to catch it. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/kechele.html

Stormsurf Weather Models Updated Again: Yes, we've been at it again this weekend getting another batch of weather models running. Global coverage is now provided for jetstream forecasts and surface pressure and winds. Zoomed in data is also available for such locations as the Mentawai Islands to Western Australia corridor, Tahiti, South America, Europe and Norwegian Sea. So now you can get local wind forecasts for these and more locations with one click. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu.html

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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