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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: June 9, 2005 9:25 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 1.7 - California & 4.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 6/6 thru Sun 6/12
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Utility swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of Utility swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Swell #2S Starts Impacting Hawaii
Next Hope: Storm South of Tahiti

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Thursday (6/9) Northern CA surf was waist high, relatively clean and shrouded in fog early. South facing breaks were waist high. Central California was waist high and blown out by the afternoon. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were waist high with some bigger sets at the best breaks. The LA area southward into Orange County was chest high with set at best breaks to near head high. Southward to San Diego waves were chest to shoulder high. The North Shore of Oahu was waist high. The South Shore was building from the waist to shoulder high range. The East Shore was waist high and building.

Hawaii is the place to be with solid energy pushing north from the equator. This is coming from a storm off the eastern coast of New Zealand and is expected to build for the weekend. Windswell is expected to be on the rise for California over the weekend too, but conditions are to not be favorable. There's some indications that the pattern in the South Pacific will improve some, but far from guaranteed. Get what you can. See details below...

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SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
At the jetstream level on Thursday (6/9) a very weak trough was over the dateline (animation here). Over the next 72 hours it is to pinch off while tracking east to the Gulf of Alaska with no additional energy moving into it. No real support for storm development expected at the surface.

At the surface today high pressure was in control. The largest one was filling the Northeast Pacific at 1024 mbs extending from the California coast west to the dateline. A second smaller one was filling the Northwest Pacific at 1020 mbs. Tropical Storm Nesat was positioned 550 nmiles south of Japan tracking northeast and fading fast, with no tropical life expected 24 hours out. Another weak 996 mb low was in the northern Gulf of Alaska producing 25 kt winds aimed at the Pacific Northwest into Vancouver Island. Maybe some windswell to result for those locales from this fetch (animation here). Over the next 72 hours high pressure is to retain control of the North Pacific. The only exception is the weak remnants of Nesat pushing northeast up the Kuril Islands, but all fetch from it is to be aimed due north at the Aleutians. No swell producing fetch forecast.

More model data here

 

California Offshore Forecast
Thursday mornings local charts (6/9) depicted solid high pressure at 1028 mbs centered 700 nmiles northeast of Hawaii and ridging strong into the Islands to the south and into California to the east. Low pressure is forecast to build inland over Nevada late Friday (6/10) setting up the standard pressure gradient between the two opposing systems, generating brisk north winds at their junction, over the California coast. By Saturday (6/11) 30-35 kt north winds forecast along the North and Central coasts becoming more centralized off Point Arena on Sunday but holding strength. Much of this fetch is to be impacting the coast, especially Saturday. The gradient is to hold through Monday (6/13) then start fading late Tuesday (6/14) as a new low (if one can believe the models) starts circulating off the Pacific Northwest. But Saturday through Monday copious windswell with lumpy conditions (at best) expected along the North and Central coasts.

The 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.

 

South Pacific

Overview
On Thursday (6/9) the jetstream was forming a bit of a weak trough in the southern branch just east of the dateline pushing almost into the northern branch. Strong winds in the 170 kt range were depicted at the intersection (animation here). Over the next 72 hours the trough is to get shut down with the southern branch turning straight east crossing over Antarctica the entire length of the Pacific. The northern branch is to continue generally strong with winds up to 190 kts, but all flowing straight east to west. This is not very supportive of storm development.

At the surface today strong high pressure at 1036 mbs remained centered in eastern South Pacific, ridging south to Antarctica and almost into Chile while a second high at 1028 mbs was centered over the New Zealand. Weak nondescript low pressure was centered in between these two highs, but no swell producing fetch was present (animation here). Over the next 72 hours starting Saturday (6/11) a somewhat more organized low is to develop between the highs, but cut off from the energy associated with either branch of the jetstream, limiting it's growth potential. This system has been on the charts for several days. Pressure initially to be 968 mbs but all fetch is to be aimed south towards Antarctica with nothing of interest in the storms west quadrant aimed north. By Sunday (6/12) a broad 35-45 kt fetch with imbedded winds to 50 kts developing in the storms west quadrant aimed north in close proximity to Tahiti and the US west coast. Hawaii is to be positioned to receive sideband energy but will be well off the main path. Seas building to 30 ft holding in to early Monday (6/13), but the core of the fetch is to weaken and move into the storms north quadrant aimed at Central and South America. Additional moderate fetch to redevelop aimed north Tuesday (6/24) but generally be unimpressive and never get enough of a foothold to regenerate any seas of interest.

More model data here

 

Swell #2S - Tiny New Zealand Storm (Hawaii)
Some fetch from a storm that pushed from the Tasman Sea across New Zealand started to redevelop just along the eastern New Zealand coast late Thursday (6/2) with pressure 980 mbs. By Friday AM (6/3) pressure dropped to 976 mbs with winds on the west side of the low confirmed up to 45-50 kts over a tiny area centered just south of Chatham Island (46S 178W) aimed up the 195 degree path to Hawaii and the 215-218 degree path to California. Seas were building. In the evening pressure held with winds continuing solid at 45-50 kts in roughly the same location just positioned a few degree north. Seas were modeled at 29 ft over a tiny area centered at 42S 177W.

Early Saturday (6/4) the low drifted east with pressure up to 980 mbs while the fetch started fading at 40-45 kts over a tiny area a little further north located at 40S 177W. Winds were aimed well at Hawaii up the 195 degree path and California up the 220 degree paths. Seas built to 30 ft centered at 40S 177W. In the evening the low was fading with pressure at 984 mbs while a tiny fetch of barely 40 kt winds continued over Chatham Island. Seas were modeled at 29 ft centered at 37S 174W and were fading fast.

On Tuesday (6/7) buoy 51028 started to detect some early signs of this swell as it crossed the equator heading towards Hawaii. This buoy was positioned a bit too far east to accurately gauge the energy moving towards Hawaii and a bit too far west to gauge what was tracking towards the US mainland. Regardless pure swell was about 2.6 ft @ 17 secs and heading up.

By Wednesday AM (6/8) pure swell at the Christmas Island buoy was up to 5-6 ft @ 15 secs with one reading topping 7 ft @ 15 secs by afternoon, then falling to the 5-6 ft range at 14 secs tracking towards Hawaii and California.

The fetch in this system tracked northeast as it moved from the west quadrant into the storms north quadrant, allowing it's winds to act on already agitated seas and providing a little bit more push to the resulting swell. Still, this was a very small fetch area limiting it's swell generation potential. At this time there's some hope for a decent swell for Hawaii due to their relative proximity to this tiny fetch (3636-3964) but less for California due to decay as the swell makes the long journey northeast towards the coast (5267-5577).

Hawaii: Expect a solid dose of swell from this system starting early on Thursday (6/9) with period at 17-18 secs and size tiny but building through the day reaching 3 ft @ 17 secs by sunset (4-5 ft faces). Size to be building more through the morning Friday (6/10) and be maxing by mid-afternoon with swell 4.6 ft @ 16 secs (6.5-7.5 ft faces - up to 8-9 ft a breaks with good bathymetry) and size continuing up even a little more. Swell to peak overnight into first light Saturday (6/11) with pure swell 4.7 ft @ 15 secs (7 ft faces - 9 ft at best breaks). Size to continue solid through mid-afternoon, the start heading down as period drops off. Rideable energy to continue into Sunday (6/12) with swell 3.6 ft @ 13 secs but heading down (4.0-4.5 ft faces). 11-12 sec residuals to continue on Monday (6/13) but dropping steadily. Swell Direction: 195-197 degrees

South California: Expect swell arrival starting Sunday (6/12) near sunrise with period at 17-18 secs and size tiny if even noticeable. Size building to rideable by sunset as period moves to 17 secs solid. Swell to continue up on Monday (6/13) with period at 16 secs, starting to peak late afternoon with pure swell 2.8 ft @ 15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces). Solid residuals to continue on Tuesday (6/14) with period at 14 secs, and size slowly drifting down through the day. Swell fading out on Wednesday (6/15) with period at 13 secs. Swell Direction: 217-220 degrees

North California: Expect swell arrival starting Sunday (6/12) just after sunrise with period at 17-18 secs and size tiny if even noticeable. Size building to rideable by 11 PM as period moves to 17 secs solid. Swell to continue up on Monday (6/13) with period at 16 secs, starting to peak late afternoon with pure swell 2.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces). Solid residuals to continue on Tuesday (6/14) with period at 14 secs near noon, and size slowly drifting down through the afternoon. Swell fading out on Wednesday (6/15) with period at 13-14 secs early and heading down. Swell Direction: 218-221 degrees

 

QuikCAST

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Thursdays models (6/9) indicated that beyond 72 hours in the upper levels a big ridge is forecast in the West Pacific driving any energy from Siberia into the Bering Sea. At the surface high pressure is to give up a little ground 7 days out and miraculously low pressure is supposed to develop off the Pacific northwest near Wednesday (6/15). Winds forecast up 35-40 kts over a decent sized area aimed at North CA and the Pacific Northwest 24 hours later with seas building. This is most likely just a mirage, but interesting just the same. Otherwise no swell producing fetch forecast.

 

MJO Update
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was near normal. The negative readings that denominated for the past 21 days (5/14 through 6/4) associated with the active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation are over. Forecast models suggest that the inactive phase is well entrenched with slightly above normal trades expected over the equator in the far Western Pacific through 6/14, then fading to near normal with no obvious signs of the MJO depicted.

 

South Pacific

On Thursday (6/9) beyond 72 hours out the jetstream continues to look unfavorable with a strong zonal (flat) flow expected in the northern branch and the southern branch pushing over Antarctica.

At the surface a quirky storm is forecast to develop just north of New Zealand at 992 mbs on Tuesday (6/14). Winds building to the 40-50 kts range, but all aimed mostly due west to northwest aimed towards the northeast Australian coast generating 29-30 ft seas through early Thursday (6/16). Otherwise no swell producing fetch forecast.

Details to follow...


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Local Interest

El Nino Forecast Updated: Check out all the latest indicators to get a handle on how the Summer and Fall seasons could unfold. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/current.shtml

Big Florida Swell: A strong gale pushed off Cape Hatteras on 4/15 generating solid seas and a 70 ft rogue wave that hit a cruise ship before proceeded south to make solid waves for the Southeast US coast. Matt Kechele was there to catch it. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/kechele.html

Stormsurf Weather Models Updated Again: Yes, we've been at it again this weekend getting another batch of weather models running. Global coverage is now provided for jetstream forecasts and surface pressure and winds. Zoomed in data is also available for such locations as the Mentawai Islands to Western Australia corridor, Tahiti, South America, Europe and Norwegian Sea. So now you can get local wind forecasts for these and more locations with one click. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu.html

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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