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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: June 10, 2007 9:38 AM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 1.0 - California & 3 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 6/11 thru Sun 6/17
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Utility swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of Utility swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small S. Hemi Swell for Hawaii
Windswell For West Coast and the Islands

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Saturday (6/9) Northern CA surf was waist to chest high and messy. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were maybe waist high. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was waist high. Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was thigh to waist high at the best breaks. The LA Area southward to Orange County was waist high at the best breaks. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were waist high. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was waist high. The East Shore report was not available.

North/Central California continued getting local windswell but size was fading out. Southern California was getting some minimal wrap around windswell from the north but nothing more. Hawaii was getting the fading last little bits of southern hemi swell on the South Shore but the North Shore was flat. Another small pulse of southern hemi swell is pushing north towards Hawaii originating off eastern New Zealand, setting up something fun for the week ahead. Minimal easterly windswell expected too. But nothing is scheduled for the North Shore. Weak Low pressure is in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska barely in the North CA swell window with more forecast behind it. This to be providing limited reinforcements combined with local windswell providing the only real hope for California. Longterm the South Pacific to remain dominated by high pressure, with maybe a tiny window east of New Zealand hold some hope for Hawaii, but odds low. But from a southern hemi perspective relative to California, a flat spell has already started and expected to continue for quite some time. See details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Saturdays jetstream charts (6/9) for the North Pacific indicated a flat flow pushing from off Japan gradually rising into the central Gulf of Alaska with winds across the width of the North Pacific not exceeding 110 kts, strongest in the Gulf. No real support for gale development indicated. Over the next 72 hours no significant change forecast and if anything the flow is to get weaker. Beyond 72 hours thing to decay even more with winds down to 90 kts by Thursday (6/14) with a ridge starting to build over the dateline pushing well into the Bering Sea only serving to shut things down more. One last little trough is forecast in the Gulf next weekend with 120 kts winds briefly building under it providing a glimmer of hope there for both HAwaii and California, but not much.

At the surface today moderate high pressure at 1024 mbs was 9800 nmiles west of Pt Conception CA generating a 20 kt northerly flow along the Central California coast and producing limited short period windswell. This high was also generating moderate easterly trades over the Hawaiian Islands and even more limited windswell along eastern shores. Weak low pressure was in the Gulf of Alaska producing 30 kt northwest winds and perhaps 18 ft seas aimed towards Oregon. Limited potential for windswell pushing south in the the northern most reaches of California, but nothing more. Over the next 72 hrs the low to push inland over British Columbia while high pressure takes control, setting up a solid fetch of 25-30 kt north winds over Cape Mendocino starting Monday (6/11) and continuing through the week, with good potential for windswell north of Pt Conception. Fetch from that high to also wrap towards the Hawaiian Islands by late Tuesday into Friday providing decent potential for short period windswell along northeast shores then. Another low to develop well off the Pacific Northwest Monday/Tuesday (6/12) generating 35 kt northwest fetch and 20 ft seas again aimed towards the northern reaches of California, providing hope for reinforcements to windswell hitting during the week.

Tropics
No tropical systems are being monitored at this time.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Offshore Forecast
On Saturday (6/9) high pressure at 1024 mbs was 900 nmiles west of San Diego ridging into California generating a moderate northerly flow in the 20 kt range centered between San Francisco and Pt Conception. Minimal windswell was occurring at exposed breaks. This pattern to fade Sunday as low pressure pushes into the Pacific northwest with 30 kt northwest winds possibly providing backup to windswell expected to be rebuilding early in the week. High pressure to again take firm control early Monday (6/11) with winds building to 30 kts off Bodega Bay and holding into Thursday while starting to sink south with sizeable local windswell possible but a fair amount of bump and lump expected too given the local nature of the fetch. The high pressure pattern to fade late Thursday (6/14) with windswell fading along with it.

 

South Pacific

Overview
Saturday jetstream charts (6/9) for the South Pacific indicating a bit of a trough was still holding under New Zealand with it's peak east of the southern tip of New Zealand. A small patch of 180 kt winds were near that peak cause by the convergence of the southern branch colliding with the northern branch of the jet. But most of the energy in this trough was flowing south towards Antarctica feeding into a large and strong ridge over the Southeast Pacific pushing right up to Antarctica and totally suppressing any potential for storm development there. Over the next 72 hours through Tuesday (6/12) the trough under New Zealand to totally wash out while the ridge in the east holds then starts to fade. Virtually no support for gale development with energy aimed north expected. Beyond 72 hours another ridge to set up over the Central South Pacific with 110 kt winds pushing over Antarctica by Wednesday (6/13) and reinforcement coming from under New Zealand in the days ahead. The net result is the jet is to be sweeping over the Ross Ice Shelf in the west and continue on east totally eliminating any chance for gale development in non-ice covered waters into next weekend.

At the surface today high pressure at 1036 mbs remained in firm control of the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific pushing south to Antarctica and driving the storm track the same way. Low pressure at 960 mbs was positioned over the Ross Ice Shelf forming a gradient with the high and generating a healthy fetch of south winds aimed right at Antarctica. Virtually no energy was aimed to the northeast, totally shutting down swell production potential for California and Hawaii. Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast with high pressure in the east building to 1040 mbs continuing the steady flow of air southward over Antarctica through Tuesday (6/12). After that a more west to east flow forecast while new high pressure brews south of Tahiti at 1040 mbs. Nothing of interest suggested from a storm or gale production perspective.

 

Hawaiian Pulse
Late Wednesday into early Thursday (6/7) a 960 mb low was pushing under New Zealand with much of it's fetch impacting the southern tip of the peninsula. An 18 hour fetch of 40-45 kt winds slid just east of there generating a short-lived area of 30 ft seas aimed well at Hawaii up the 200 degree great circle path. This was just enough to send limited swell northeast towards the Islands. A secondary fetch of 40 kts winds built in the same area early Friday (6/8) pushing a bit north and producing 29 ft seas.

Swell from these two systems expected to arrive in Hawaii starting Wednesday (6/13) with swell building to 2 ft @ 17 secs (3 ft faces) late. By Thursday AM (6/14) swell top start peaking near 3 ft @ 15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces) with secondary energy arriving Friday (6/15) at the same size, or 3 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.5 ft faces). Swell starting to head down Saturday (6/16) from 3 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours high pressure to hold over the Northeast Pacific through Thursday providing windswell for the California coast and into Hawaii through Friday (6/15) providing northeast windswell potential there. Then a pause in the action with winds dying out Saturday. Low pressure is possible in the Gulf by the weekend, but that's just a guess by the models at this point.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours high pressure at 1040 mbs to regenerate over the Central Pacific starting anew south flow pushing right into Antarctica through Friday (6/15). That to fade while tracking east with again a west to east flow building behind it over next weekend. But no organized swell producing low pressure systems are modeled and non likely given the poor upper level flow forecast for the area.

Details to follow...

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Local Interest

Jason-1 Satellite Data On-line and Improved!: Our Jason-1 satellite data was upgraded yet again Wednesday PM (6/6) and is now operating better than ever. We've added a feature that averages the data every 15 measurements on the local views and every 50 measurements on the global view (1 measurement every 3 nautical miles) and overlays the results onto the wave model chart. Both the single highest measurement on the chart and the highest 15 measurement average are posted at the bottom of each chart. This seems to work real well and compensates for the very spiky nature of the raw data coming off the satellite. So we now have an effective way to verify the accuracy (or lack of) the wave model output. See the data here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_alt.html

Comprehensive guides to surfing Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Baja and Mainland Mexico: They ain't pretty. They ain't glossy. They ain't coffee table picture books. These are guides for surfers who want real, useful information. Since 1996 The Surfer's Guides have always provided more info, more detail, more tips, and have been updated more often than any other surf travel guides. Take a look here: http://www.surfingtravel.com/

Surfing's Greatest Misadventures: We've been reading a great book of short stories all based around surfing adventures, but not in classical sense. These are stories of surf trips gone bad, personal growth and realizations while on surf trips, silly things that happen while surfing right on up to horrifying shark attacks, and some great nostalgic tails of surfers versus the Marines at Trestles back in the early days. A truly enjoyable, easy to read and entertaining look at the culture and people that make up the surf community. Check it out here: http://www.thesurfbook.com

STORMSURF on the News: NBC-11 came to visit Stormsurf last week to talk about the Mavericks Surf Contest and surf forecasting. See the piece here: http://www.nbc11.com/mavericks Click on 'Mavericks Forecaster'

Surf Video Clips at Yousurftubes.com - Check out this new website dedicated soley to high quality - high action surf clips from around the world. Great action form Morocco, Hawaii, Mexico, California and many more spots all streaming right to your desktop. Piles of fun and hours on enjoyment. Check it out now at: http://www.Yousurftubes.com

High Noon and Low Tide: Eric Nelson has remastered this epic Mavericks documentary covering a week of giant surf leading up to that fateful day of 12/23/94 when we lost Mark Foo. See all the footage with archived and recent interviews of all the best riders including Grant Washburn, Doc Renneker, Evan Slater, Peter Mel and more. This is a must-have piece for any serious Maverick collection. Available at local surfshops. Will be coming to an on-line store shortly.

New Book: Inside Mavericks - Portrait of a Monster Wave: Ace photographer Doug Acton, cinematographer Grant Washburn and San Francisco Chronicle writer Bruce Jenkins have teamed up to present an insiders view of Mavericks. Read all the first hand accounts from Peter Mel, Ken 'Skin Dog' Collins, Grant Washburn, Mark Renniker and the rest of the gang as they describe the game of surfing one of the largest waves in the world, fully illustrated with the hauntingly artistic images from Doug Acton, long-time Mavericks lensman. There's even a section featuring Stormsurf! Get your autographed copy here: http://www.insidemavericks.com/

Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml

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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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