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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, June 18, 2020 5:44 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.5 - California & 3.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 6/15 thru Sun 6/21

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

NZ Swell Fading in HI
And Building in CA - More To Follow

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Thursday, June 18, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 14.7 secs from 184 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 7.8 secs from 41 degrees. Water temp 77.9 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 14.0 secs from 158 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 65.3 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.3 ft @ 9.7 secs from 263 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.1 ft @ 15.0 secs from 211 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 15.5 secs from 199 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.5 ft @ 9.0 secs from 269 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 10.8 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 9.3 ft @ 9.6 secs from 309 degrees with no southern hemi swell. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 4-6 kts. Water temp 49.6 degs (013), 55.9 degs (SF Bar) and 56.5 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

 
Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (6/18) in North and Central CA locally generated north windswell was producing waves at shoulder high and warbled but with somewhat decent surface conditions and soft. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and fairly clean and soft. At Santa Cruz no southern hemi swell was hitting with windswell waves occasionally waist high and clean but soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high or so and somewhat lined up but soft with with clean surface conditions and no wind. Central Orange County had waves at waist to maybe chest high and somewhat lined up coming from the south but with a fair amount of southerly lump intermixed from south wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at shoulder to head high on the sets and lined up but with a bit of warble intermixed with near calm wind early. North San Diego had waves at waist high and slightly lined up and slightly warbled and soft with light wind early. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was still getting south swell with waves shoulder high on the sets and clean and lined. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high or so with east tradewinds blowing and chopped conditions.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (6/18) local north windswell was hitting North California and some minimal southern hemi swell was hitting Southern CA. In Hawaii swell was hitting from a gale that passed east under New Zealand Mon-Tues (6/9) producing up to 38 ft seas aimed east. This swell is also tracking towards CA. Another small gale formed southeast of New Zealand Fri-Sun (6/14) lifting north but only produced 30 ft seas early Saturday aimed a little to the northeast, then dissipated. Small swell is tracking north. Beyond the models continue to suggest a gale forming under New Zealand tracking east Fri-Sun (6/21) producing up to 39 ft seas aimed east-northeast with another system right behind it Sun-Mon (6/22) producing 39 ft seas aimed northeast. Possible decent swell to result for the East Pacific. Nothing else is forecast to follow.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday (6/18) no swell of interest was in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (6/18) north winds were 25 kts centered on Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 10 kts south of Bodega Bay with perhaps a light eddy flow (south winds) setting up south of the Golden Gate in the afternoon. Fri (6/19) north winds to be fading from 20 kts limited to Cape Mendocino early fading to 15-20 kts later and a weak eddy flow south of there all day. On Sat (6/20) a light eddy flow (south winds) or light northwest winds are expected for the whole state all day expect Pt Arena area with northwest winds 15-20 kts all day. Sun (6/21) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA early building to 20 kts in the afternoon. Mon (6/22) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA holding all day. Tues (6/23) north winds to be 25-30 kts limited to Cape Mendocino with a light eddy flow from Pt Arena southward. No change on Wed (6/24) or Thurs (6/25).

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches respectively.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (6/18) the jetstream was split with a ridge pushing southeast under New Zealand and east of there over Antarctic Ice but with a trough starting to develop south of the Tasman Sea tracking east offering potential for the future. Over the next 72 hours the ridge is to move east and the new trough is to follow east behind it, being fed by 150 kts winds Fri (6/19) then moderating while pushing east into Sun (6/21) pushing north to 59S offering some support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Sun (6/21) another trough is to move east over the same area into early Tues (6/23) being fed by 140 kts winds offering good support for gale development over the Southwest Pacific. But by Tues (6/23) afternoon winds are to evaporate and support for gale development is to dissipate. Theoretically another trough is forecast building over the South Central Pacific on Wed-Thurs (6/25) being fed by 130 kts winds offering a brief window to support gale development.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (6/18) swell was still hitting Hawaii from a gale that pushed under New Zealand and that swell was tracking towards CA (see Weak New Zealand Gale below). And yet one more weak gale formed under New Zealand tracking east but the models have backed off on previous projections suggesting this might be a good swell producer (see Final New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours the models have been consistently depicting a gale forming while sweeping east under New Zealand on Fri PM (6/19) producing 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas building to 33 ft at 57.5S 169.5E aimed northeast. On Sat AM (6/20) the gale is to track east with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas 34 ft seas at 59S 179.5E aimed east-northeast. In the evening the gale is to track east producing southwest winds at 35-40 kts with seas 38 ft at 56S 168.5W aimed east-northeast. The gale is to dissipate quickly after that.

 

Weak New Zealand Gale
A weak primer gale started developing under New Zealand on Mon PM (6/8) producing 45 kt southwest winds over a small area and 30 ft seas at 58S 179E aimed northeast. On Tues AM (6/9) fetch was fading from 40 kts from the southwest with 29-30 ft seas over a small area at 57S 168W aimed northeast. Behind it a stronger gale was building south-southwest of New Zealand with 45-50 kt west winds and seas building to 39 ft over a modest sized area at 57S 156E aimed east. In the evening fetch was fading from 40 kts from the west-southwest and seas at 36 ft at 56S 172E aimed east. The gale was pushing east-northeast on Wed AM (6/10) producing 30 kt southwest winds and seas fading from 29-30 ft at 55S 173W aimed east-northeast. This system was gone after that. Some minimal swell is radiating northeast towards Hawaii and a little more energy towards the US West Coast with luck. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Swell fading on Thurs (6/18) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/18) building to 1.3 ft @ 19-20 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/19) pushing 2.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell holding on Sat (6/20) at 2.2 ft @ 16-17 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (6/21) from 2.1 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals fading on Mon (6/22) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 208-210 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/18) building to 1.2 ft @ 20 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/19) pushing 1.8 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell holding on Sat (6/20) at 2.1 ft @ 16-17 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (6/21) from 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals fading on Mon (6/22) from 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 206-209 degrees

 

Final New Zealand Gale
One more gale formed southeast of New Zealand on Fri AM (6/12) with lifting northeast with a broad area of 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas 27 ft at 54S 176E aimed northeast. In the evening 35-40 kt southwest winds lifted northeast with 30 ft seas at 57S 174W aimed northeast. The gale faded from there while lifting due north Sat AM (6/13) with 30-35 kt south winds and seas 30 ft over a tiny area at 55S 165W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to fade out. Low odds of any meaningful swell resulting.

Oahu: Sideband swell arriving on Fri (6/19) building to 1.8 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell holding on Sat (6/20) at 2.6 ft @ 16 secs (4.0 ft) early. Swell fading on Sun (6/21) from 2.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (6/22) from 2.3 ft @ 13 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Tues (6/23) fading from 2.0 ft @ 12 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/21) building to 1.3 ft @ 18 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building on Mon (6/22) to 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs through the day (3.5 ft). Swell continues Tues (6/23) at 2.1 ft @ 15 secs )3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals on Wed (6/24) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 204-209 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/21) building to 1.1 ft @ 18 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building on Mon (6/22) to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs through the day (2.5 ft). Swell continues Tues (6/23) at 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs. Residuals on Wed (6/24) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 204-208 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours another gale is to develop south of New Zealand on Sat PM (6/20) producing 35-40 kt southwest winds with seas building. On Sun AM (6/21) a solid fetch of 45 kt west-southwest winds are to be building tracking east with seas building from 35 ft at 59S 175E aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch is to track northeast at 45 kts with seas building to 39 ft at 57S 174.5W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/22) the gale is to be lifting northeast with fetch fading from 35-40 kts and seas 35 ft at 53.5S 162.5W aimed northeast. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 35 kts with seas fading from 30 ft at 53S 150.5W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Development Continues

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool had collapsed with warm water starting to build on the equator.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. Given all that, for 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the end of 2020 if not longer.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/17) 5 day average winds were solid from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and holding over the Dateline and KWGA. Anomalies were light easterly over the East equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific then turning weak westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/18) moderate east anomalies were in the far west KWGA with light west anomalies over the dateline. The forecast calls for west anomalies holding for 3 days, then fading out with east anomalies taking over and filling the KWGA on 6/22 holding through the end of the model run on 6/25 and with east anomalies building in strength the last 2 days of the model run filling the KWGA and also over the Central Pacific and most of the East Pacific.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/17) A weak Inactive MJO pattern was filling the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates this pattern is to fade some on day 5, fading out on day 10 with the Active Phase building in the Maritime Continent and starting to ease east into the KWGA on day 15. The dynamic model indicates the weak Inactive Phase is to hold on days 5 and 10, then building moderately strong over the equatorial Pacific on day 15 and filling the KWGA.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/18) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Central Indian Ocean today and is to slowly ease east and weaken and all but gone over the West Pacific at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase stalling and retrograding west to North Africa and very weak at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/18) This model depicts a very weak Active Phase over the Central and East Pacific today and is to push east moving over Central America on 7/3. A secondary weak Active MJO is forecast developing over the far West Pacific 6/26 pushing slowly east and moving into Central America starting 7/18 continuing through the end of the model run on 7/28. A moderate Inactive Phase is to start building in the far West Pacific on 7/13 moving to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/17) This model depicts no coherent MJO signal over the KWGA today with a split of east anomalies over the West KWGA and west anomalies over the East KWGA. The forecast indicates a continuation of no MJO signal with west anomalies fading on 6/20 and modest to moderate east anomalies taking hold over the entirety of the Pacific filling it by 7/1 and if anything building in strength continuing through the end of the model run on 7/15.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/18 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Inactive MJO building over the KWGA today with mostly weak east anomalies indicated filling the KWGA. The forecast depicts the Inactive MJO is to hold while very slowly easing east through 8/29 with east anomalies building solidly in strength and coverage starting 8/5-8/29. An Active MJO is forecast developing in the far Indian Ocean starting tomorrow and pushing slowly west into the KWGA 7/28 then filling it by 8/29 and holding through the end of the model run on 9/15 but producing no westerly anomalies in the KWGA. In short, only weak west anomalies in pockets around the 8/18 timeframe. Otherwise east anomalies are the rule. By 9/3 east anomalies anomalies are to be in control in the KWGA and over the entirety of Pacific holding through the end of the model run on 9/12. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is developing over the dateline today and is to build steadily in coverage through the end of the model run with a second contour setting up on 7/28 and a third on 8/21. A single contour low pressure bias is to appear over the Indian Ocean starting 7/26 building in coverage with a second starting on 8/28 holding through the end of the model run. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean are migrating east today into the Pacific are to set up on the dateline and points east of there by 6/26 and continuing if not building there for the foreseeable future fueled by the building high pressure bias contour. Based on this model it appears a clear transition to La Nina is starting today and is to become entrenched by mid-July.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/18) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was retreating west to 158E. The 29 deg isotherm was stable at 175W. The 28 deg isotherm line was stable at 158W today. The 24 deg isotherm was no longer pushing into Ecuador but was reaching the surface at 125W, retrograding west slightly. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies 0-1 deg C were isolated to the West Pacific reaching east to 150W. There were no warm anomalies east of there. Instead cool anomalies were upwelling to the surface from a large subsurface pocket of cool water -2 to -3 degs 150 meters deep from 180W to Ecuador. It is likely poised to continue upwelling to the surface over the coming weeks though continues to lose some of it's intensity today. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/12 indicates the same thing with cool water at depth erupting in the east to the surface between 85W-170W at -5 degs C. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/12) Negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms were over the equatorial Pacific between Ecuador and 160W and holding coverage, with neutral anomalies pushing west to 165E (losing some ground there too) suggestive of a cool subsurface pool below the equator and mostly holding in coverage. Negative anomalies were also now building along and down the coast of Peru and up the coast of Central America to Mexico. Positive anomalies at +5 cms were effectively gone over the entirety of the equatorial Pacific and along Peru and Central America.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/17) The latest images indicate cold water was building solidly over the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos and to the dateline, looking like the start of a La Nina pattern. Warm anomalies were gone off the coast of Chile up into Peru turning decidedly cooler and appearing to be feeding the cool stream. Warm water was off Central America reaching west to the dateline but only north of the equator, remnants of a fading El Nino like pattern. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and building in coverage and intensity.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/17): A well defined cooling trend is in place starting from North Peru and pushing north and west on the equator along Ecuador and out over the Galapagos out to 145W. Pockets of warming were on the equator west of 120W to 160W but in the minority. The short term trend is looking like a push firmly towards the development of La Nina with cool water over the Eastern Equatorial Pacific scraping any remaining warm equatorial water and pushing it quickly west to the far West equatorial Pacific. A mirror image of that cool trend is developing off Africa too.
Hi-res Overview: (6/17) A stream of cool water was entrenched along the coast of Peru lifting northwest to the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and if anything building. Warmer than normal temps were stable north of the equator with cooler than normal water building on and south of the equator. Overall the data suggests a building La Nina.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/18) Today's temps were stable down at -1.511 and have been fading steadily since March 26. Overall the trend is fading from a warmer range near +0.6 degs between 2/25-3/26.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(6/18) Temps were stable at -0.355 after bottoming out at -0.595 on 5/27. Overall the trend is on a firm downward trajectory after previously being in the +0.3 degree range in Feb., and up to the +0.5-+0.6 degree range 3/12-4/8.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/18) Actual temperatures were in the +0.65 deg range 1/1/2020 through 4/1/2020 then started falling hard down to -0.25 in late-May. The forecast depicts temps continuing to fall, down to -0.45 July 1, then continuing on a steady downward trajectory reaching down to -1.00 in early Sept and holding there through Nov, then starting to rebound in early 2021. According to this model sea surface temps should be falling strongly moving towards La Nina as Summer develops. All objective evidence indicates this is in-fact occurring.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 20, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at +0.20 degs, and are to slow fade to neutral +0.00 in July 2020, then holding there through December 2020. The outliers are the dynamic models (NCEP CFS, NASA GMAO and the COLA CCSM4) all suggesting solid La Nina. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (6/18): The daily index was negative today at -30.79. The 30 day average was falling to -5.81. The 90 day average was falling at -2.73, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was in control.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): April 2020 -0.62, March -0.11, Feb +0.69, Jan +0.42, Dec 2019 +0.46, Nov +1.03, Oct +0.27 Sept +1.11, August +0.60, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (6/14):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14HCFJ9JUc0&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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