On Tuesday (6/19) Northern CA surf was chest high, onshore and junky. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were inconsistently up to waist high. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was waist to maybe chest high. Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was near flat with best breaks to waist high. The LA Area southward to Orange County was waist high and occasionally a little more at the best breaks. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were waist to maybe chest high on the rare set. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was waist high, maybe 6 inches more on the rare sets. The East Shore report was not available.
North/Central California was getting some unremarkable north windswell with the faintest hint of southern hemi swell underneath. Southern California was getting some small inconsistent southern hemi swell. Hawaii was getting the last dribbles of southern hemi swell from under New Zealand and fast fading tradewind swell on the East Shore. Southern hemi swell expected for last weekend in California materialized smaller than hoped for. That swell is all but gone in Hawaii and fading fast in California with nothing expected to replace it. Windswell in both California and Hawaii is fading out too and not expected to return until the weekend, and then only marginally. The southern hemi remains barren with only a hint of something developing on the charts over the coming weekend which means only faint hope for something with significant period nearly 2 weeks out. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Tuesdays jetstream charts (6/19) for the North Pacific indicated a very weak ridging over the dateline pushing up into the Bering Sea with a trough on either side, one off kamchatka and the other in the Gulf of Alaska. Wind was up to 120 kts in the Gulf trough providing a modicum of support for low pressure development there. Otherwise nothing of interest was occurring. Over the next 72 hours the Kamchatka trough is to wash out with no energy of interest forecast there or over the dateline. The weak trough to persist in the Gulf pushing east into Canada. No real support for low pressure development. Beyond 72 hours a new little trough is again forecast to develop in the Gulf Sunday (6/24) with winds building to 120 kts for a da, fading late Tuesday (6/26). Limited support for low pressure development in the Gulf if this occurs. Nothing else of interest forecast.
At the surface today high pressure at 1028 mbs was in the far Western Gulf of Alaska ridging southeast but not reaching either Hawaii or the mainland. weak low pressure was in the Gulf at 996 mbs generating a 20 kt breeze pushing towards the mainland, but ineffective at swell production. In short, nothing was happening. Over the next 72 hrs the high pressure system is to drift southeast providing a little more fuel for development of a pressure gradient over Point Conception with winds building to 25 kts there by Friday (6/22) and less off to the north. The result to be weak short period local windswell From san Francisco southward, with little wrapping into Southern CA. No significant change forecast for the Hawaiian Islands with trades a bit below normal.
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked at this time.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Tuesday (6/19) no wind of interest was occurring off the California coast, providing the first semi-calm local sea state in quite a while. No change forecast through Wednesday. Then on Thursday northerly winds to start building again as high pressure pushes closer to the coast, but centered off Pt Conception. Northerly winds forecast to 25 kts there with chop becoming the norm over the North and Central CA coast through the weekend and pushing right up to the shore there (no eddy in-effect). Things to remain unchanged in Southern CA with eddy winds in effect. This fetch to finally start moving north early next week with an eddy flow taking over locally both north and south as the fetch itself fades out by late Tuesday (6/26) and windswell generation potential fades.
Tuesdays jetstream charts (6/19) for the South Pacific indicating a big ridge pushing south to Antarctica over the central portion totally shutting the storm corridor down. Minor troughs were under New Zealand and off Chile but were either too weak (west) or outside the swell window for our forecast area (east) to be of interest. In short, no support for surface level gale development suggested. Over the next 72 hours through Friday (6/22) more of the same forecast with a new ridge building in the southern branch again driving the jet far to the south in the Central and Southeast Pacific shutting down any potential for surface level low pressure development. A trough is to build some under New Zealand with 140 kt winds aimed well northeast pushing right into and over New Zealand (Friday) likely directing any surface level gale energy right into land there, and obscuring it's potential for swell development, then slipping east of there into the weekend. Beyond 72 hours as the trough under New Zealand pushes east there's limited support for surface level gale development just east of new Zealand. But just beyond the jet is to be pushing hard south towards Antarctica feeding into the big ridge in the east. Very limited support for some gale energy possibly aimed north towards Hawaii but that's likely to be short-lived if it forms at all. This trough to totally loose all energy by Monday (6/25) with any potential it had fading out. On a more positive note the big ridge in the Southeast Pacific to fade to as it's energy source get's cut off, resulting in a broad and weak trough southeast of New Zealand mid-week. That's a bit of a reach, but provides a glimmer of hope.
At the surface today high pressure at 1036 mbs remained in firm control of the Southeast Pacific driving most wind in the Central Pacific due south towards Antarctica. No low pressure systems of any interest were on the charts. Over the next 72 hours a complex conglomeration of 3 low pressure systems is to take root near southern New Zealand by Thursday (7/21). But all fetch in these systems is to either be aimed due south towards Antarctica or directly into New Zealand, no support for swell development aimed towards our forecast area.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours high pressure to move further east taking up a position 900 nmiles north of Hawaii on Saturday (6/23). Trades to build to 20 kts blowing into East Shores there with increased potential for limited short period windswell through the weekend into early next week. Also 25 kt north winds to be building over the North and Central CA coast, holding through the weekend and providing increased potential for short period windswell. This fetch to slowly be migrating north from Pt Conception reaching Cape Mendocino by Monday (6/25) then fading as the high pressure system generating the winds dissipates out at sea.
Beyond 72 hours high pressure is to be in-control of the Southeast Pacific at 1028 mbs and positioned well to the south, shutting everything down there. But the complex low pressure pattern under New Zealand is to slip east and become unshadowed relative to our forecast area. The net result is to be a small fetch of northeast winds in the 45 kt range pushing towards Hawaii and California Friday (6/22) possibly generating a fragmented area of 30 ft seas. If one is to believe the models the low to get much better organized over that weekend with winds building to 55 kts late Saturday and seas building to 38 ft into Sunday aimed well north. We are pessimistic though considering the total lack of support up in the jetstream, so we'll believe it when it happens, but at least it's a tease in the right direction.
Details to follow...
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New CDIP Buoys Online: We've updated our buoy system to pick up new CDIP buoys put in service recently. One is the Monterey Canyon (inside Monterey Bay). Check it out here: Buoy 156. Also there are more new CDIP buoys activated in NCal, SCal, Pacific Northwest, and Florida.
6th Annual Jay Moriarity Memorial Paddleboard Race: Saturday June 23rd 2007. Surftech is presenting the 6th Annual Jay Moriarity Memorial Paddleboard Race. The “Jay Race” is considered one of the premiere paddleboard races on the West Coast attracting the states best paddlers to compete in the challenging waters of the Monterey Bay. is the 12-mile race course that start's and finishes at beautiful New Brighton State Beach in Aptos and loops through the kelp beds of the Monterey Bay. In addition to the 12 mile race, there will be a 2 mile Short Course and Youth Races for paddlers of all levels. The 2 mile race is an opportunity for paddlers of all levels to compete.” It's about sharing the spirit and stoke that Jay shared with everyone” With this spirit in mind, many competitors partaking in the 12 mile race offer their boards to newer competitors to use in the shorter race. With the 12 mile race starting at 8:30 am, the other races begin mid day with the awards being presented at around 2:00 pm. For more information:
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Jason-1 Satellite Data On-line and Improved!: Our Jason-1 satellite data was upgraded yet again Wednesday PM (6/6) and is now operating better than ever. We've added a feature that averages the data every 15 measurements on the local views and every 50 measurements on the global view (1 measurement every 3 nautical miles) and overlays the results onto the wave model chart. Both the single highest measurement on the chart and the highest 15 measurement average are posted at the bottom of each chart. This seems to work real well and compensates for the very spiky nature of the raw data coming off the satellite. So we now have an effective way to verify the accuracy (or lack of) the wave model output. See the data here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_alt.html
Comprehensive guides to surfing Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Baja and Mainland Mexico: They ain't pretty. They ain't glossy. They ain't coffee table picture books. These are guides for surfers who want real, useful information. Since 1996 The Surfer's Guides have always provided more info, more detail, more tips, and have been updated more often than any other surf travel guides. Take a look here: http://www.surfingtravel.com/
Surfing's Greatest Misadventures: We've been reading a great book of short stories all based around surfing adventures, but not in classical sense. These are stories of surf trips gone bad, personal growth and realizations while on surf trips, silly things that happen while surfing right on up to horrifying shark attacks, and some great nostalgic tails of surfers versus the Marines at Trestles back in the early days. A truly enjoyable, easy to read and entertaining look at the culture and people that make up the surf community. Check it out here: http://www.thesurfbook.com
New Book: Inside Mavericks - Portrait of a Monster Wave: Ace photographer Doug Acton, cinematographer Grant Washburn and San Francisco Chronicle writer Bruce Jenkins have teamed up to present an insiders view of Mavericks. Read all the first hand accounts from Peter Mel, Ken 'Skin Dog' Collins, Grant Washburn, Mark Renniker and the rest of the gang as they describe the game of surfing one of the largest waves in the world, fully illustrated with the hauntingly artistic images from Doug Acton, long-time Mavericks lensman. There's even a section featuring Stormsurf! Get your autographed copy here: http://www.insidemavericks.com/
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table