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BUOY ROUNDUP
On Thursday, June 24, 2021 :

• Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 14.8 secs from 179 degrees. Water temp 79.0 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.7 (Lani 239).
• Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 10.9 secs from 336 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs.
• Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 14.0 secs from 192 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southwest at 8-12 kts. Water temperature 64.6 degs, 66.0 (Topanga 103), 58.5 degs (Long Beach 215), 64.9 (Del Mar 153), 67.3 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.4 ft @ 14.8 secs from 195 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.1 ft @ 14.9 secs from 202 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.7 ft @ 14.9 secs from 193 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.2 ft @ 15.8 secs from 183 degrees.
• Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 14.7 secs from 185. Wind at the buoy (012) was north at 6-8 kts. Water temp 57.6 (029), 59.2 degs (SF Bar 142) and 60.6 degs (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (6/24) North and Central CA had waves maybe thigh high and warbled and mush with no wind but not clean conditions. Protected breaks were thigh high on rare sets and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high and clean and lined up but weakening and inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and warbled and soft with some northwest wind bump on it. Central Orange County had set waves at shoulder high on the sets and lined up but pretty textured from northwesterly wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets to near head high and lined up and peeling but with some northwest warbled intemixed. North San Diego had sets waves at chest high or so and lined and reasonably clean but with some warble intermixed. Hawaii's North Shore had some stray waves to waist high and clean with light wind early. The South Shore continued getting some swell with set waves waist to chest high and lined up and peeling and clean but inconsistent and fairly weak. The East Shore was getting no real swell with waves thigh high and soft and textured from light east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (6/24) California was seeing fading remnants of swell that originated from a solid system that formed southeast of New Zealand tracking east fast Sun-Tues (6/15) producing up to 40 ft seas aimed east-northeast. Another smaller gale developed in the Southeast Pacific on Wed (6/16) producing 36 ft seas aimed east if not southeast. That swell is radiating north and small in size expected to result in small surf for California for Friday (6/25) into the weekend. Beyond a small system developed under New Zealand Mon-Wed (6/23) producing up to 32 ft seas tracking northeast but mostly in the 26-28 ft range. Maybe a somewhat better one is to form in the Central South Pacific Fri-Sat (6/26) with 37 ft seas aimed east. And yet another is forecast forming under New Zealand lifting northeast Sun-Mon (6/28) with up to 41 ft seas aimed northeast. Some more surf is possible, but the models have been overhyping everything more than 2 days out.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday (6/24) no swell producing fetch was occurring and no swell from previous fetch was in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
On Thurs (6/24) Tropical Storm Champi was 900 nmiles south of Tokyo Japan tracking north with winds 45 kts. Chanpi is to continue on this heading while building with winds to 75 kts on Fri PM (6/25) heading north and holding velocity at 75 kts into Sat AM positioned 450 nmiles south of Tokyo, then starting to weaken and making a slowly but steady turn to the northeast. By Mon AM (6/28) Champi is to be down to weak tropical storm status accelerating off to the northeast 300 nmiles east of Misawa Japan (the north island). The GFS model has remnants of this system trying to develop in the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska on Wed (6/30) but not producing seas even to 18 ft. No swell to result.

California Nearshore Forecast

• Fri (6/25) north winds to start building at 10-15 kts mainly near Cape Mendocino and south near Pt Conception early north of Pt Arena early getting more contiguous but no stronger through the day. No real windswell expected to result.
• Sat (6/26) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts over all of North and Central CA but up to 20 kts near Pt Conception early building to 15 kts over all of North and Central CA through the day. Low odds of short period windchop in the late afternoon.
• Sun (6/27) northwest winds to be 15 kts for all of North and Central CA and 20 kts over Cape Mendocino and Pt Conception early holding all day but getting lighter near the coast of Cape Mendocino to Bodega Bay in the afternoon. Very limited short period windchop likely.
• Mon (6/28) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts well off the North CA coast but light nearshore and 15-20 kts for all of Central CA building some for Central CA later in the day. Some windswell production is possible.
• Tues (6/29) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA early building in the afternoon to 25-30 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Windswell building.
• Wed (6/30) northwest winds are forecast at 25-30 kts for North Ca early and 10-15 kts for Central CA fading some in the afternoon. Windswell holding.
• Thurs (7/1) northwest winds re forecast at 20-25 kts off the North CA coast early but otherwise 10 kts nearshore down into Central CA. Windswell fading.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Freezing level 12,500 ft through 6/25, then building to 14,000+ ft with no change beyond.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (6/24) the influential southern branch of the jet was in a zonal flow tracking west to east on the 58S latitude line with wind between 100-120 kts but with no troughs present offering no support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere. Over the next 72 hours a pocket of wind energy is to build at 110 kts over the Central South Pacific on Fri PM (6/25) lifting marginally northeast and could be considered a weak trough pushing to the Southeast Pacific and fading late Sat (6/26) perhaps offering some weak support for gale development. And that trough is to develop more over the Southeast Pacific Sun PM into Mon (6/28) with winds to 120 kts perhaps offering better support for gale development before fading and pushing east of the Southern CA swell window. Beyond 72 hours starting Sun PM (6/27) another trough is to start building south of New Zealand lifting well north to the southern tip of NZ being fed by 130 kts winds and tracking east into Tues (6/29) offering decent support for gale development. But east of there a ridge is to be pushing south to 70S over the Ross Ice Shelf offering nothing. The ridge is to hold but possibly lifting northeast on Thurs (7/1) over the Southeast Pacific starting to form a trough being fed by 120 kts winds offering some hope.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (6/24) swell was fading in California originating from a broader gale that traversed the South Pacific (see South Central Pacific Storm below). And a secondary fetch developed over the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below) aimed somewhat towards the US West Coast with swell from it tracking northeast towards the US mainland. Modest sized swell is expected for the US West Coast. A weak gael formed south of New Zealand possibly setting up small swell for Hawaii (see Weak New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours another system is to develop in the deep Central South Pacific on Thurs PM (6/24) producing 55 kt south winds over a tiny area with the gale itself pushing east generating 29 ft seas at 58S 174W aimed east. On Fri AM (6/25) the gale is to lift northeast producing 50-55 kt south winds aimed north with seas building to 36 ft at 58S 160.25W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to push east fast with southwest winds 50 kts over a building area with seas 38 ft at 58.75S 146.25W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (6/26) fetch is to collapse with 40 kt west winds and seas fading from 31 ft at 57.25S 136.25W aimed east. The gale is to fade from there. Something to monitor.

Secondary fetch is to develop Sun AM (6/27) in the far Southeast Pacific with 35-40 kt southwest winds and a core to 50 kts over a tiny area with seas 28-32 ft near 59.5S 128.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be 40-45 kts from the southwest with seas 38 ft at 56.5S 125W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/26) fetch is to lift northeast at 40-45 kts with seas 36 ft at 55S 120W aimed east. The gale is to fade and move east of the CA swell window after that. maybe some small swell to result.

 

South Central Pacific Storm
On Sat PM (6/12) a new gale was developing just southeast of New Zealand with 40-45 kt south and southwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 55S 175.8W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (6/13) southwest winds were 35-40 kts over a large area with a core at 50 kts aimed north with seas building from 32 ft at 51.5S 162W aimed northeast. In the evening broad area of 30-40 kt southwest winds were filling the South Central Pacific with a core at 50-55 kts aimed northeast producing 37 ft seas at 51.5S 147.75W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/14) fetch was tracking east at 50 kts over a solid area with a huge area of 30-35 kt southwest winds outside the core and seas 41 ft at 51S 137.75 aimed east to northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 40 kts from the southwest with 30-35 kt southwest winds over a large area in the Southeast Pacific with 35 ft seas at 52S 128.75W with 26-28 ft seas over a large area aimed northeast at 43S 147W pushing northeast. The fetch quickly dissipate from there. Swell is pushing northeast.

Southern California: Swell fading on on Thurs (6/24) at 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200-204 degrees

North CA: Swell fading on Thurs (6/24) at 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (6/25) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 193-198 degrees

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
Secondary fetch associated with the South Central Pacific Gale (above) developed Tues PM (6/15) in the Central South Pacific with 50 kt west winds and seas building. Fetch built Wed AM (6/16) from 50-55 kts from the west but with fetch falling southeast with seas 38 ft at 53.25S 135.75W aimed east. In the evening 50 kt southwest winds were aimed northeast while falling south with seas 36 ft at 56.5S 122.5W aimed east moving to the eastern edge of the North CA swell window. On Thurs AM (6/17) 50 kt southwest fetch was in the deep Southeast Pacific producing 31 ft seas at 57.5S 119W aimed east. The gale is to fall south from there and of no interest. Some more hope.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (6/25) building to 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell holds on Sat (6/26) at 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell pulsing some on Sun (6/27) at 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell finally fading on Mon (6/28) at 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals fading on Tues (6/29) from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195-197 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/26) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (6/27) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell finally fading on Mon (6/28) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals fading on Tues (6/29) from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195-197 degrees

 

Weak New Zealand Gale
On Mon PM (6/21) a gale is to start building southwest of New Zealand producing 40 kt southwest winds with seas building from 26 ft at 59.25S 158.5E aimed northeast. On Tues AM (6/22) southwest winds were tracking northeast at 35-40 kts over a broader area with seas building to 28 ft at 57.25S 171E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 35 kts southeast of New Zealand with seas fading from 26 ft at 55.75S 176.5E aimed northeast. Residual fetch persisted into Wed AM (6/23) with 30-35 kt southwest winds over a modest area aimed northeast with 26 ft seas fading at 59.5S 171W aimed east-northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Small swell for HI is possible.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Mon (6/28) building to 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell continues on Tues (6/29) at 1.5 ft @ 15 secs (2.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (6/30) fading from 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Sun PM (6/27) a gale is forecast developing under New Zealand with 40-45 kt south wind and seas 32 ft at 52S 164E aimed north. On Mon AM (6/28) south winds are to build to 50 kts just south of New Zealand with 36 ft seas at 54S 172E aimed north. In the evening south winds are to be 45 kts just east of Southern New Zealand with 42 ft seas at 49.5S 177E aimed north. On Tues AM (6/28) south winds to be 35-40 kts east of Northern New Zealand with 35 ft seas at 44.75S 177.5W aimed north. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Kelvin Wave Eruption Occurring Weakly near Ecuador - SOI Neutral and Stable
Summary - A combination of 2 Kevin Waves is weakly erupting near the Galapagos with a 3rd possibly developing in the west. The forecast suggests weak west anomalies holding west of the dateline for the next 3 months, but solid east anomalies east of there hinting at strong high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska this Fall.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina occurred through the Winter of 2017-2018. Warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In 2019, those warm waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, with it fully developing into La Nina in July 2020. We continue in the place in March 2021, but with a Kelvin Wave sweeping east late in March possibly signaling the demise of La Nina.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST

Spring/Summer 2021 = 4.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii) Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 is on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state will set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But lingering effects of La Nina are forecast to continue over the Pacific for some time as the upper atmospheric circulation slowly transitions to an ENSO neutral state. This scenario tend to favor the Southeast Pacific, therefore favoring California over Hawaii. To counter that is the forecasted movement of the low pressure bias currently in-flight from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next 3 months. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a slightly less than normal swell production forecast. A somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected as compared to normal over the South Pacific during the early summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by the Fall and early Winter of 2021/22, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/23) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then moderate plus east over the Central Pacific and calm over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and light west over the Central Pacific and modest west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/24) weak east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for more of the same with weak east anomalies holding and filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 6/30.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/23) A modest Inactive MJO pattern was indicated nearly filling the KWGA today. The statistic model projects the Inactive Phase building to moderate status on day 5 then fading some on day 10 and dissolving to almost nothing on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/24) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was modest over North Africa today and is to track east to the Central Indian Ocean on day 15 at weak status. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase moving to the Central Indian Ocean and fading to weak status on day 15 of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/23) A solid Inactive Phase (dry air) was indicated over the KWGA today. It is to push east moving over the East Pacific and into Central America on 7/13 with a second weaker pulse of the Inactive Phase developing over the KWGA on 7/3 pushing east and fading over the East Pacific on 7/28. The Active Phase is to be building over the KWGA on 7/23 moving to the dateline at the end of the model run on 8/2.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/23) This model depicts no MJO signal present in the Pacific today with weak west and east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates no discernible MJO signal present for the next month with a mix of weak east and west anomalies in the KWGA through 7/21. Maybe a pulse of west anomalies it to build over the KWGA 6/28-7/3. After that perhaps a more defined area of east anomalies is to build in the KWGA starting 7/15 holding through the end of the model run on 7/21.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/24 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): Today no coherent MJO was present with weak west anomalies over the KWGA. The forecast indicates a weak Inactive MJO signal is to set up 7/4-7/19 with a mix of weak east and west anomalies in the KWGA. Starting 7/18 a semi solid Active Phase of the MJO is to set up filling the KWGA through 9/19 with moderate west anomalies filling the western 75% of the KWGA but with solid east anomalies setting up starting 7/23 from the dateline eastward and building into 8/11 at solid status holding into 9/4, then weakening but still present thereafter. After that a modest Inactive MJO pattern is forecast with west anomalies persisting through the end of the model run on 9/21. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is in control over the Central Pacific (with one contour line) filling the eastern KWGA but a low pressure bias was over the West KWGA filling the western 2/3rds of it to 165E. The high pressure bias was reaching east into the Southwest US. The high pressure contour line is to shift dramatically east to 130W on 7/2 holding through 8/1 then possibly back-building west to the dateline and holding. The single contour low pressure bias is to hold it's current position to 7/10, then slowly retrograding to 140E at the end of the model run and effectively out of the Pacific and the KWGA. This suggest a return to a weak La Nina pressure pattern by the Fall. And this forecast has been stable for over a month now.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/24) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was easing east to 179W and the 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 157W. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing the whole way across the equatorial Pacific and was 100 meters deep at 140W and 30 meters deep in the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in the West Pacific reaching east across the Pacific suggesting a weak Kelvin Wave tracking east. Also +2 deg anomalies were filling the East Pacific from 150W and points east of there pushing to the surface at 125W and points east of there indicative of a previous Kelvin Wave (actually 2) pushing into Ecuador. No cool anomalies were indicated. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/17 indicates much the same. Negative anomalies in the East Pacific were gone. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/17) A slight increase in sea heights developed the past 5 days over the equator with readings 0 to +5 cms over the dateline and points west and pockets from the dateline to 120W with neutral anomalies east of there to Ecuador. The demise of La Nina is occurring now but no clear large scale warming is occurring either. A neutral pattern was getting established.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/23) The latest images depict steadily warming water temps building on the equator across the width of the Pacific and effectively contiguous with marked warming building along Ecuador and over the Galapagos and a little west of there. 2 Kelvin Waves were finally erupting. A area of weak warming was along Chile and Peru but very broken up. A more cohesive pocket of warm water was off Ecuador and Central America up to Southern Baja. Overall this seems to indicate the late stages of La Nina transitioning to ENSO neutral.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/23): A mix of weak warming and cooling pockets between Ecuador out to 120W on the equator. Otherwise nothing outside the ordinary was occurring.
Hi-res Overview: (6/23) A distinct flow of warmer than normal waters were on the equator tracking west from Ecuador to the dateline with secondary warming west of Central America. A mix of generic warm and cool water was west of Peru and Chile but moving more towards the warm end of the spectrum. A clear cool outflow was pushing from California southwest to the a point south of Hawaii. La Nina appears to be in retreat but not quite gone.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/24) Today's temps were falling to +0.000 after peaking at +0.213 on 6/17, the highest since 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. But in between they've been in the -0.75 range. The longterm trend has been stable.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/24) Today temps were falling slightly at +0.199 after peaking at +0.224 on 6/15 (the highest is a year). Previously they peaked at +0.085 on (6/1), beating the previous peak high of +0.040 on 5/3. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3. Temps have been on a steadily increasing trend.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/22) - Actuals per the model indicate temps have been steadily rising from early Nov at -1.25 degs up to to -0.25 degs in mid-May and then -0.05 in early June. The forecast indicates temps holding at -0.05 degs into mid-July, then starting a slow decline falling to -0.75 degs in mid-Oct and holding to mid-Jan before rising to -0.25 degs in early Feb 2022. This model suggests a return of near La Nina conditions this fall, with an ENSO neutral trend returning in the deep Winter. There is no sense that El Nino will develop.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.14 degs today, and are to rise to 0.00 in Sept and stabilizing there through Jan 2022. Most models are suggesting were are nearly normal now and are to hold there into the early months of 2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (6/24): The daily index was rising to 14.83. The 30 day average was rising to -1.96 after falling to -3.17, the lowest in a year and beating the previous low on 6/14 of -2.08. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising slightly to +1.46 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/10 at +1.14. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

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Powerlines

Jeff Clark

Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table