BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, June 26, 2022 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (6/26) North and Central CA had set waves at thigh to maybe waist high and a little warbled and sloppy but with mostly clean conditions with fog just off the deck. Protected breaks were flat and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to shoulder high on the peaks and clean and lined up but slow and soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat to knee high and clean but with some intermixed warble and no local wind. Central Orange County had sets at shoulder high and lined up with decent form and clean but with some intermixed warble. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at chest to shoulder high of not a little more on the peak and clean and lined up with decent form but with some warble intermixed. North San Diego had sets at chest high and lined up if not closed out and clean with fog on it. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting new swell with waves chest to shoulder high on the sets and lined up and clean with good form but inconsistent. The East Shore had east windswell at thigh high and warbled from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (6/26) California was getting fading swell from a gale that formed from the remnants of a gale previously in the Tasman Sea Gale then redeveloped over the far Southwest Pacific Tues-Wed (6/15) with up to 38 ft seas aimed east-northeast. Hawaii was getting the leading edge of swell that originated from a gale was developed in the Central South Pacific Mon-Thurs (6/23) producing mostly 26-30 ft seas with one portion up to 36 ft aimed northeast. No other swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast for the next 7 days.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (6/26) no swell of interest was in the water and no swell producing weather systems have occurred.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
On Sun AM (6/26) Tropical Storm Celia was 300 nmiles southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico with winds fading from 45 kts tracking west northwest. A slow fade is forecast as Celia continues on a west-northwest track. Celia previously peaked south of Cabo with winds to 50 kts on Sat AM (6/26) tracking west-northwest. No meaningful swell is expected to result for Southern CA.

California Nearshore Forecast

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Freezing level for the Tioga Pass Road is 14,000 ft today and forecast holding till it dips to 12,500 ft 7/2-7/3, then back up to 14,000 ft or higher beyond.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (6/26) the influential southern branch of the jet was falling southeast under New Zealand reaching down to 62S over the Central South PAcific and tracking east from there forming a ridge and not conducive to gale development. Over the next 72 hours that ridge is to continue to build east and strengthen some with winds in it to 110 kts late Wed (6/29)) continuing to suppress support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours the ridge is to continue in the east but a trough is forecast developing just east of New Zealand on Thurs (6/30) with 140 kt winds feeding up into it offering some hope but then quickly pinching off early Sat (7/2) likely offering only a tiny window to support gale development. But on Sun (7/3) a new trough is forecast developing under New Zealand being fed by 110 kts winds perhaps offering additional support for gale development while the ridge dissipates over the far Southeast Pacific.

Surface Analysis
Swell was fading in California from a gale that developed southeast of New Zealand (see New Zealand Gale below). And swell was starting to hit Hawaii from a gale that formed over the Central South Pacific (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

New Zealand Gale
On Monday PM (6/13) the Tasman Sea gale pushed into the far Southwest Pacific with a broad area of southwest winds at 35-40 kts generating seas of 31 ft at 51.5S 164.25E aimed up into the California swell window but partially shadowed by Auckland Island and not yet quite at Hawaii. On Tues AM (6/14) the gale was free and clear with 45 kt southwest winds aimed well to the northeast and seas building to 35 ft at 50.75S 173E. In the evening 40 kt southwest winds continued plodding east with 39 ft seas at 50.5S 177.75W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (6/15) southwest winds were fading from 35+ kts with seas 35 ft at 49.5S 168.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading out from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 29 ft over a large area at 49.25S 159.25W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Residuals on Sun (6/26) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft) early. Dribbles on Mon (6/27) fading from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Leftovers on Tues (6/28) fading from 1.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees

North CA: Residuals on Sun (6/26) fading from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft) early. Dribbles on Mon (6/27) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Leftovers on Tues (6/28) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 212 degrees

Central South Pacific Gale
On Sun AM (12/19) a small gale started to build southeast of New Zealand with 35-45 kt south winds with seas building. In the evening a broader fetch of south winds developed at 45-50 kts with seas building from 29 ft over a tiny area at 48S 161.75W aimed north. Southwest fetch to continue Mon AM (6/20) at 45 kts with seas 36 ft over a semi decent sized area at 45.75S 157W aimed northeast. Fetch continued in the evening at 35-40 kts from the southwest with seas 32 ft at 43.25S 149.25W aimed northeast. A broad fetch of secondary winds developed Tues AM (6/21) at 35-40 kts from the south and southwest with seas 25 ft at 50S 170W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds built in coverage at 35+ kts aimed north with seas 27 ft at 51.5S 158.5W aimed north. On Wed AM (6/22) south fetch was holding at 35 kts with seas 27 ft at 49.25S 155.5W aimed north. South fetch was fading from 30-35 kts in the evening with seas fading from 24 ft at 53S 152W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/26) building to 1.6 ft @ 17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Mon (6/27) at 2/1 ft @ 14-15 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (6/28) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Perhaps a second pulse to arrive on Wed (6/29) building to 2.2 ft @ 14-15 secs mid-day (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (6/30) from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri (7/1) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (6/28) building to 1.0 ft @ 17 secs late (1.5-2.0 ft). On Wed (6/29) building to 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding on Thurs (6/30) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building some on Fri (7/1) building to 1.7 ft @ 16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (7/2) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (7/3) from 1.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 196-206 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (6/29) building to 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding on Thurs (6/30) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building some on Fri (7/1) building to 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Sat (7/2) at 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (7/3) from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192-202 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

Massive Pool of Warm Water Building Subsurface
Cool Water Losing Coverage - Models Suggesting a La Nina Surge in Fall
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21 and is now fading fast. A massive pool of warm water is building subsurface pushing well east. The SOI is just past its peak, higher than last years peak. This is a lagging indicator. La Nina conditions are projected slowly fading out into Fall. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/25) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/26) Strong east anomalies were over the KWGA centered just west of the dateline. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies building in coverage at strong status focused on the dateline 6/27 and increasing in coverage through the end of the model run on 7/3.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/26) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was at 169E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 177W. The 26 degree isotherm is holding at 132W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with +1 deg anomalies pushing in a stream east connecting to a pocket of +3 deg anomalies in the East Pacific off Ecuador starting at 140W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/22 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 110W and poised to reaching the surface there if not breaching it already at 135W and 119W. A residual pocket of cool anomalies were at 90W at -3.5 degs C and steadily getting compressed east while weakening and discharging to the surface at 90W. A possible massive Kelvin Wave is slowly easing east with it's large leading edge at 110W. It appears warm water is building over the vast majority of the equatorial West Pacific but being repelled from surging east by a last stubborn cool pocket over the far East equatorial Pacific and east wind anomalies at the surface. One could guess that La Nina is one Active Phase away from being inundated. Only the previously existing La Nina momentum in the atmosphere is holding it at bay. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/22) Sea heights were steady over the Equatorial Pacific. A near contiguous string of positive anomaly pockets were north of the equator pushing from the dateline to 110W along the 3N latitude line. A broad but shrinking area of negative anomalies at -5 cms were limited to the area directly over the Galapagos and fading. Otherwise positive anomalies were surging east to 135W on the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram a pocket of cool anomalies was fading from -0.5 degs limited between Ecuador and 105W. And the Kelvin Wave was easing east to 109W. It looks like a slow motion bulldozer of warm water is building in the the west pushing east and squeezing cool water in the east to the surface. The proverbial dam will eventually break.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/23) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile, Peru and Ecuador to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. A building string of pockets of warm water were on the equator from Ecuador west to 150W. A pocket of previously stronger cold water was all but fully discharged along the coast of Peru reaching west to the Galapagos and losing density and coverage fast. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 120W. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/25): 2 pockets of cooling temps were indicated at 90W and 105W. Neutral temps were west of there.
Hi-res Overview: (6/25) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on the equator and from South America down at 20S. Warmer than normal waters were aligned in a thin but broadening string on the equator from 100W to 150W. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be waning.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/26) Today's temps were falling at -1.693 after having been more or less steady at -1.5 or greater since 6/12. Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after previously being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/26) Today's temps were rising to -0.345 and have been on an upward trend since 5/15 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May.
Forecast (6/26) - Temps are to steadily rise moving forward to about -0.60 degs mid-July falling to -1.00 in Oct-Nov, then rising above the La Nina threshold in Jan and up to +0.15 degs in March. This model suggests we are at going to slowly transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps rising to -0.5 degs in July then slowly falling to -0.75 degs Oct-Nov, before rising back above La Nina threshold in Jan and rising from there forward to +0.05 degs in March. According to this version of the model we will be try to move out of La Nina in July, only to fall back into it in the Fall before finally rising out of it in Jan 2023.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 20, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.642 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.582 in July (previously -0.287 and -0.449 degs the 2 previous updates) then falling slightly to -0.692 in November before rising to -0.574 in Dec and -0.362 degs in Jan and -0.162 in Feb. This model now suggest a continuation of borderline minimal La Nina temps through Nov. then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is now in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (6/26) the daily index was positive at +27.55 with previous peaks at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was rising some at +15.14 today after rising to +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising some at +17.24 today beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table