On Saturday (6/30) Northern CA surf was maybe waist high and junky with luck. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were thigh high. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was waist high. Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was flat. The LA Area southward to Orange County was up to thigh high with luck at the best breaks. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were thigh to waist high and very weak. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was getting new southern hemi swell pushing shoulder high early and still coming up with best breaks maybe head high.cgius on the biggest sets. The East Shore report was not available.
North/Central California was essentially flat other than a bit of thigh to waist high windswell in select spots. Southern California was flat other than tiny northwest windswell at select locations, and even at that it was barely rideable. Hawaii was flat on the North Shore with very weak windswell on the East Shore. But the big deal was that there was actually southern hemi swell on the South Shore and still coming up. No surf of interest is forecast in California for the next few days. But the prime story remains is the southern hemi swell pushing north from a storm that was under Tasmania over the southern tip of New Zealand then progressing on into the Pacific, regenerating some and pushing to a point south of the Tahiti, though greatly weakened by then. Most of the bulk of this storm was just barely in the California swell window coming under New Zealand and also in the Hawaiian swell window but coming from up the Tasman Sea. Then equal energy was directed towards both California and Hawaii as it progressed through the South Pacific. A rather long lasting but only moderate dose of swell is forecast for everyone. Nothing else is on the charts so make the most of what you get. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Saturdays jetstream charts (6/30) for the North Pacific indicated a very weak flow tracking east over the Aleutians then dipping southeast into the Gulf of Alaska forming a trough off Canada. Winds were only 90 kts maybe pushing 110 kts down it's western side offering only the weakest of hope to fuel surface level low pressure. Over the next 72 hours energy levels to hold then come up a bit more in the trough to the 120-130 kt range Monday (7/2) into Tuesday providing limited support for surface level low pressure development in the Gulf. Beyond 72 hours the trough is to pinch off and push inland over Canada by Thursday (7/5) with a nondescript and non-productive flow dripping across the North Pacific just south of the Aleutians with no support for surface level low pressure development.
At the surface today near neutral pressure was over the Eastern Pacific with no swell producing fetch indicated. High pressure at 1028 mbs was over the dateline providing a minor pressure gradient over Hawaii and enhancing trades to the 15-20 kt range, but only over a very shallow area not allowing then to get much tractions on the oceans surface. Only very short period windswell to result along eastern shores. Over the next 72 hrs the high pressure system is to weaken if not fade with trades over Hawaii fading and windswell potential going with it. The models suggest low pressure developing in the Gulf of Alaska Sunday (7/1) producing 30 kt northwest fetch pushing southeast and aimed towards California into Monday possibly generating 17 ft seas, possible good for 10 sec period windswell for California late in the week. Also a limited area of north winds at 20-25 is forecast hanging over Pt Conception providing only minimal hope for windswell mainly into far Southern California into Tuesday (7/3).
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked at this time.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Saturday (6/30) high pressure at 1022 mbs was hanging 400 nmiles off the coast and di.cgiaced a bit south by weak low pressure in the gulf of Alaska. Northerly winds at 15 kts were in control of our waters, but not enough to generate andy windswell of interest, just serving to chop things up some. The focus of the pressure gradient and therefore winds formed by this high pressure system was Pt Conception, where winds were 20-25 kts. Southern CA itself was protected/shadowed from these winds. Much the same to continue through Tuesday (7/3). Then Wednesday the high to start creeping north and winds coming up from 25 kts centered near Cape Mendocino, but pushing south of even Sam Diego (shadowed nearshore) into Friday. Nearshore conditions to be a mess north of Pt Conception, though Southern Ca to remain protected. Some form of junky windswell with size might result north of there though, then fading incrementally by the weekend.
Saturdays jetstream charts (6/30) for the South Pacific indicated an large steep trough extending from the Ross Ice Shelf due north to a point 300 nmiles south of Tahiti, then diving almost as steep back to the south right into Antarctica. Winds were at 180 kts towards the apex of the trough on the west side and the same speed diving almost the whole length of the trough into Antarctica. This configuration unfortunately favored surface circulation directed mostly towards the south. Otherwise all flow was tracking over the end of the Antarctic landmass and not favorable for surface level low pressure development. Over the next 72 hours through Tuesday (7/3) the big trough in the Central Pacific is to fall apart, pinching off quickly and dissipating. The southern branch to become dominant flowing over the Ross Ice shelf the entire width of the South Pacific and not supportive of surface level low pressure development. Beyond 72 hours the southern branch of the jet to significantly weaken to almost a trickle by next weekend through well separated from the northern branch, flowing flat west to east on the 30S latitude. In short, no support for surface level low pressure development indicated.
At the surface today the remnants of the New Zealand Storm (above) was fading fast south of New Zealand with no swell producing fetch indicated. 45 kts winds were aimed due south just off Antarctic Ice in the Southeast Pacific associated with this low. But otherwise there was no winds of interest. Over the next 72 hours high pressure is to set up east of New Zealand at 1024 mbs and also off Chile at 1028 mbs driving the flow south towards Antarctica with no swell producing fetch indicated.
New Zealand Storm
Late Wednesday (6/20) a new storm organized well south of Tasmania with pressure 956 mbs and winds building to 50 kts over a small area at 57S 140E aimed northeast and barely in the Hawaiian-Fiji swell window (208 degrees) that goes through the Tasman Sea. Energy was also aimed right up the 220 degree path from California but an unbelievable 7815 nmiles away.
By Thursday AM (6/21) winds continued at 45-50 kts at 50S 150E again on the eastern edge of the Hawaiian swell window, but pushing energy up into it. These winds were also aimed about 15 degrees north of the 220 degree path to California and still 7400 nmiles away. Seas were modeled at 32 ft at 57S 140E. The low held in the evening with winds still 45-50 kts at 44S 162E again right on the very edge of the swell window relative to Hawaii. Also winds were aimed just north of the very edge of the California swell window up the 221 degree path. Seas were modeled at 35 ft at 52S 150E. The Jason-1 satellite made a pass over the western edge of the fetch and reported seas at 31 ft at 49S 150E, completely consistent with the WW3 wave model.
By Friday AM (6/22) the fetch was impacting New Zealand at 40-45 kts but was totally obscured by land relative to Hawaii. But new fetch at 45 kts was just under New Zealand at 47S 173E aimed towards Ca up the 219 degree path. The Jason-1 satellite reported seas of near 30 ft on the very edge of the Hawaiian swell window at 43S 165E, consistent with the wave model output. In the evening the low was reorganizing well southeast of New Zealand just off Antarctica with pressure 944 mbs with a broad area of 40 kts winds pushing northeast up the eastern coast of New Zealand at 50S 171E pushing right up the 201 degree great circle path to Hawaii and equally well up the 221 degree path to California. The ocean was not yet fully responding to this new wind source. though 33 ft seas continued at 49S 165E pushing towards California.
On Saturday (6/23) 50 kts winds were developing almost under the low over Antarctic Ice with only 30-35 kts winds persisting east of New Zealand. The models suggested a small area of 30 ft seas at 47S 178E pushing towards Hawaii up the 201 degree path and the 220 degree path to California, but likely too small to have much impact on the later. In the evening 50 kts winds were confirmed at 55S 168E blowing right up the 201 degree path to Hawaii and 30 degrees north of the 215 degree path to California. 29 ft seas were holding just east of New Zealand at 45S 180W.
On Sunday AM (6/24) finally a good fetch of 40-45 kts south winds started pushing north from the low at 55S 170E generating a new area of 32 ft sea at the same location aimed right at Hawaii up the 201 degree path and 20 degrees north of the 213 degree path to California. In the evening the fetch started fading down to 35 kts at 50S 175E with 32 ft seas at 50S 173E aimed the same way as all previous readings.
By Monday AM (6/25) a broad fetch was still in.cgiace aimed north but only at 30 kts with stronger winds pushing off Antarctic Ice. Sea were fading from 28 ft at 50S 178E. Nothing by nightfall of interest expected with seas fading from 27 ft at 53S 180W.
Some form of decent 17-18 sec period swell seems likely for Hawaii pushing from the Tasman Sea northward from not too far a distance (4886-6105 nmiles), but likely experienced some grating and commensurate size reduction thanks to Fiji and surrounding Islands. The Wavewatch III wam does not recognize these islands as existing, so any output from it regarding swell heights will be overstated. Energy was also tracking under New Zealand with the fetch aimed reasonably well up the great circle paths to California too, but an incredible long distance away (6067-7815 nmiles). But a second burst of larger size is expected from when the storm moved clear of New Zealand thanks to it's close proximity to Hawaii (4623-4937 nmiles) and good aim. Less size expected for California due to the long travel distance (6110-6528 nmiles) and the rather off-angle heading.
Hawaii: Expect swell hitting the Hawaiian Islands by Thursday (6/28) near 3 PM through the Tasman Sea route with period 20 secs but size tiny if even noticeable. Friday (6/29) size to be coming up through the day with swell maybe 2 ft @ 17 secs (3-4 ft faces) right at sunset. Swell building overnight reaching 3.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.5 ft faces) on Saturday AM (6/30). Swell fading from 3 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces) Sunday AM (7/1). New swell to start arriving from when the storm started getting east of New Zealand Monday AM (7/2) at 3.1-3.4 ft @ 16-17 secs (5-6 ft faces) filling in through the day and maxing late with intermixed smaller swell from the Fiji corridor. Primary swell fading from 3.3 ft @ 15 secs (5 ft faces) Tuesday AM (7/3) though additional energy might be building from yet another incarnation of the storm (see below). Swell Direction 208 & 199-201 degrees.
South California: Small energy sneaking in from under New Zealand Sunday (7/1) by sunrise with period 20-21 secs but tiny if event noticeable and trickling up. On Monday (7/2) swell to start becoming noticeable as period drops to 17 secs near noon with swell 2 ft @ 17 secs (3 ft faces) from 220 degrees. This swell to continue Tuesday at 2.6 ft @ 16 secs (3.5-4.0 ft faces). Expect real swell arrival starting Wednesday AM (7/4) with period 17 secs and size building to 2.6 ft @ 16 secs late (4 ft faces) and continued 14-15 sec energy intermixed from under New Zealand at 2.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell holding at 2.4-2.6 ft @ 15 secs (3.5-4.0 ft faces early) Thursday (7/5) . Swell fading from 2.5 ft @ 14 secs Friday mid-day (3.5 ft faces). Swell Direction: 211-221 degrees
North California: Small energy to start sneaking in from under New Zealand Sunday (7/1) mid-morning with period 20-21 secs but tiny, very inconsistent and likely unnoticeable. Size coming up. Swell to start becoming rideable Monday (7/2) near 2 PM with swell 2 ft @ 17 secs (3 ft faces) from 220 degrees. This swell to continue Tuesday (7/3) building to 2.6-3.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.5-4.5 ft faces). Expect real swell arrival starting Wednesday AM (7/4) with period 17 secs and size building to 2.6 ft @ 16 secs late (4 ft faces) and continued 14-15 sec energy intermixed from under New Zealand at 2.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell holding at 2.4-2.6 ft @ 15 secs (3.5-4.0 ft faces early) Thursday (7/5). Swell fading from 2.5 ft @ 14 secs Friday mid-day (3.5 ft faces). Swell Direction: 213-219 degrees
New Zealand Storm Rejuvenation
Some very limited rejuvenation of the above system started Thursday AM (7/28) with a fragmented fetch of south to southwest winds at 30-35 kts at 33S 160W aimed well towards Tahiti and Hawaii up the 180 degree paths. 23 ft seas were modeled at 30S 165W. In the evening winds to build to 40 kts over a tiny area at 35S 150W embedded in a broader area of 30-35 kts winds again aimed north. 23 ft seas forecast at 33S 160W, with larger seas already aimed south towards Antarctica.
Friday AM (7/29) 40 kt winds to hold, but taking aim more to the northeast and east and changing direction fast, limiting it's foothold on any one square inch of the oceans surface. 25 ft seas forecast at 30S 155W aimed north towards Hawaii, Tahiti and California. In the evening only lingering 25-30 kt fetch to be aimed north, with most winds taking aimed towards Antarctica. 25 ft seas still modeled at 30S 152W aimed like before. This system to be effectively dead.
Assuming this occurs as modeled, some form of 13-14 sec period swell is likely for Hawaii and California, though well decayed size wise upon arrival. And given all the stronger swell source above, this energy will most likely just look like a continuation of the swell, serving only to extend it's life mainly in regards to Hawaii. It should do much for Tahiti though, pushing more size their way, though again limited by it's comparatively short period.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours the slowly fading remnants of low pressure schedule for the Gulf of Alaska to hold high pressure at bay till Tuesday (7/3), reducing the potential for local windswell generation along the California and Hawaiian coasts. High pressure to get a little better footing after that with 20-25 kts winds over a moderate area starting to set up over Cape Mendocino by Wednesday (7/4) covering a better area into Friday and pushing the whole was to Hawaii, though weaker (in the 20 kts range). Windswell on the way up in both locales a very solid a long fetch of 20-25 kts northeast winds to start building over Hawaii by Saturday, with windswell definitely coming up on East Shores if this occurs.
Beyond 72 hours a calm pattern is forecast until maybe Friday (7/6) when a small low is to set up off New Zealand with perhaps a small area of 45-50 kts south winds forecast late continuing into Saturday building 32 ft seas aimed well on a due north track towards Hawaii and a little bit at Tahiti, but mostly off the great circle tracks to the mainland. Limited hope for swell generation assuming the models are right, which is a big 'if'.
Details to follow...
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6th Annual Jay Moriarity Memorial Paddleboard Race: Saturday June 23rd 2007. Surftech is presenting the 6th Annual Jay Moriarity Memorial Paddleboard Race. The “Jay Race” is considered one of the premiere paddleboard races on the West Coast attracting the states best paddlers to compete in the challenging waters of the Monterey Bay. is the 12-mile race course that start's and finishes at beautiful New Brighton State Beach in Aptos and loops through the kelp beds of the Monterey Bay. In addition to the 12 mile race, there will be a 2 mile Short Course and Youth Races for paddlers of all levels. The 2 mile race is an opportunity for paddlers of all levels to compete.” It's about sharing the spirit and stoke that Jay shared with everyone” With this spirit in mind, many competitors partaking in the 12 mile race offer their boards to newer competitors to use in the shorter race. With the 12 mile race starting at 8:30 am, the other races begin mid day with the awards being presented at around 2:00 pm. For more information:
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table