Thursday, July 6, 2017
- Buoy 146 (Lanai): This buoy is down and there is no backup site and no date if or when it will return to service. Buoy 233/51211 (Pearl Harbor) is available but has a new frequency layout. We'll have to code a new program to read it's output (date TBD).
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 12.8 secs from 166 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast 8-10 kts. Water temperature 65.8 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 0.9 ft @ 13.4 secs from 188 degrees. At Santa Monica (Buoy 028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.4 secs from 192 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (Buoy 043) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.4 secs from 214 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (Buoy 191) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.3 secs from 192 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 5.3 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 13.5 secs from 189 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 16-20 kts. Water temp 59.2 degs.
46006, 46059, Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (7/6) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf maybe up to waist high, mushy and nearly chopped from northwest winds. Protected breaks were maybe thigh high and warbled and weak. At Santa Cruz background southern hemi swell was still producing somewhat rideable waves thigh to waist high and clean but slow. In Southern California up north local windswell was producing waves at knee high and clean and barely rideable and slow. In North Orange Co southern hemi swell was fading away with waves at maybe waist high and pretty textured from southerly wind. In South Orange Co southern hemi swell was fading out with set waves chest to maybe head high and clean and lined up but slow. In San Diego southern hemi swell was thigh to maybe waist high and clean but weak. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was effectively flat with rare thigh high sets and clean. The East Shore was flat and chopped from modest east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (7/6) no windswell of interest was in the water for both Hawaii and California with a weak local pressure and wind pattern in control. Local north winds to be building in North and Central CA for the weekend and holding into Tues (7/11) offering potential for improved north windswell. Trades in Hawaii to rebuild Mon-Wed (7/12) offering minimal hope along east facing shores. For the southern hemisphere a gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific Sat (7/1) with 29 ft seas aimed well north with a second one developing late Sun (7/3) with 26 ft seas aimed northeast. That gale intensified producing 36 ft seas Mon (7/3) barely in the SCal swell window but mainly targeting Chile and Peru. Another small gale developed again on the edge of the CA swell window Tues (7/4) with 36 ft seas aimed northeast. After that things went to sleep and nothing is forecast for the coming 7 days on the forecast charts. A series of small very south angled swell are pushing towards California and points south of there, with a southern hemi wave drought expected to follow.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday (7/6) a weak pressure and wind pattern was in play relative to Hawaii and California offering nothing to support windswell generation. Weak high pressure at 1024 mbs was centered near the dateline.
Over the next 72 hours relative to the mainland weak high pressure at 1024 mbs is to start building just 500 nmiles off North CA with north winds starting to build along the North and Central Coasts at 15-20 kts becoming a bit more focused on Sat (7/8) starting to offer minimal north windswell generation potential. These winds to lift north some on Sun (7/9) and become more focused over North CA at up to 25 kts over a small area and 15-20 kt northwest winds down to a point just west of Pt Conception offering slightly improved potential for local windswell generation potential.
For Hawaii east trade winds are to be less than 15 kts through the period offering no potential for windswell generation.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
The GFS model is suggesting a tropical system developing 500 nmiles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Baja Mexico on Sun (7/9) tracking northwest peaking on Tues (7/11) at 20N 120W. Something to monitor relative to swell production for Southern CA (900 nmiles away).
California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (7/6) weak high pressure at 1024 mbs was centered 500 nmiles west of Pt Conception ridging north into Oregon starting to generate a pressure gradient and northwest winds at 15 kts along the North and Central coasts in the afternoon. Friday (7/7) the gradient is to build some generating north winds at 15-20 kts from Cape Mendocino southward to the Channel Islands and expected to build in coverage some Saturday (7/8) at 20 kts over all of North and Central CA then becoming focused more over North CA on Sun (7/9) with north winds there at 25+ kts and 20 kts reaching south to Big Sur and 15 kts to Pt Conception. More of the same is forecast Monday (7/10) with north winds to near 30 kts over Cape Mendocino and the same further south. Tues (7/11) the gradient is to start fading with north winds 25-30 kts early over Cape Mendocino and fading but with an eddy flow (south winds) developing over Central CA. Wednesday (7/12) north winds to barely hang on at 25 kts over Pt Arena with a light eddy flow south of there. On Thurs (7/13) north winds over Pt Arena to fade to 20+ kts over a tiny area with a light northwest flow 10 kts south of there.
On Thursday AM (7/6) the southern branch of the jet was flowing zonally east under New Zealand with winds 80 kts moving east across the South Pacific on the 65S latitude line then lifting east-northeast over the Southeast Pacific with a small and weak trough at 110W with winds to 100 kts east of the California swell window offering minimal support for gale development. But west of there no support for gale development was indicated. Over the next 72 hours the southern branch is to generally start falling south over the Southeast Pacific with the the jet depressed well south over the Southwest Pacific flowing between 70S and 65S over the width of the Pacific and winds not exceeding 100 kts and only in 2 small pockets offering no support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere. Beyond 72 hours Mon (7/10) the jet is to start ridging hard south over the Southwest Pacific pushing into Antarctica and sweeping east actively suppressing gale development and that pattern holding through Thurs (7/13) offering no support for gale development.
On Thursday (7/6) no southern hemi swell of interest was hitting our forecast area. Swell from a gale that developed in the far Southeast Pacific was tracking north (See Primer Gale below). Another gale formed directly behind it, but nowhere near as strong as originally forecast (see Second Gale below). And yet another small gale formed behind that (see Third Gale below). After that the pattern faded with no additional swell producing weather systems having occurred. And looking at the 7 day forecast no change is forecast.
On Thurs AM (6/29) a gale started developing in the Southeast Pacific with 35 kt southwest winds building in the deep South Central Pacific moving rapidly east. That fetch started lifting northeast in the evening at 35 kts over a broad area with seas building to 24 ft at 59S 131W. On Fri AM (6/30) winds built to 40 kts over a modest area imbedded in a broader fetch of 35 kt south winds with seas 29 ft at 57S 126W aimed well north. On Fri PM fetch was collapsing from 35 kts aimed north with seas holding at 29 ft at 52S 119W targeting California southward to Peru. This system was gone on Sat AM (7/1) with seas fading from 28 ft at 46S 114W targeting mainly Mexico and Central America and out of the California swell window. This system should produce a nice little pulse of 16 secs energy targeting California and points south of there.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival late on Fri (7/7) with swell building to 1 ft @ 19-20 secs (2 ft) and inconsistent. Swell building on Sat (7/8) pushing 2.6 ft @ 17 secs late (4.5 ft). Swell peaking on Sun (7/9) at 3.2 ft @ 15 secs (4.8 ft with sets to 6.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (7/10) from 3.0 ft @ 14 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 180 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (7/8) pushing 1.6 ft @ 18 secs mid-day (3.0 ft). Swell peaking Sun (7/9) building to 2.6 ft @ 15-16 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell continues Mon (7/10) at 2.6 ft @ 14 secs (3.5-4.0 ft), then fading Tues (7/11) from 2.3 ft @ 13 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 175-180 degrees
Also on Sat AM (7/1) a new fetch of 30-35 kt southwest winds started building over the deep South Central Pacific rushing east with seas building from 20 ft over a small area and inconsequential. In the evening fetch built in coverage to the broad category at 35 kts from the southwest moving to the Southeast Pacific with seas building to 23 ft at 55S 128W. On Sun AM (7/2) that fetch tracked east and faded with a secondary fetch building right behind it at 40-45 kts from the southwest and positioned further north with a new area of seas to 24 ft at 58S 132W. Fetch tracked east in the evening while building to 50-55 kts over a tiny area from the southwest at 61S 119W (mostly east of the CA swell window) with seas building to 27 ft at 53S 125W targeting California and up to 30 ft at 60S 118W. On Mon AM (7/3) 50 kt southwest winds continued tracking east with 34 ft seas at 60S 116W over a tiny area targeting Chile and seas from previous fetch at 28 ft at 59S 120W targeting California. The storm started lifting north in the evening with fetch 45 kts over a tiny area and seas building to 35 ft over a tiny area at 57S 115W barely targeting Southern CA and mainly targeting Chile. The gale dissipated from there with a small area of seas still targeting Chile. Possible small swell for Southern California with most energy towards South America and specifically Chile but nowhere near as large or strong as previously forecast.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (7/10) building to 2.1 ft @ 16 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell continues upward on Tues (7/11) to 2.6 ft @ 16 secs (4.0 ft). Swell building Wed (7/12) at 3.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (7/13) from 2.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees
Northern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/11) at 2.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell building Wed (7/12) at 2.5 ft @ 15 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (7/13) from 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees
On Mon PM (7/3) another tiny gale developed in the deep Southeast Pacific with southwest winds building from 40 kts and seas building. On Tues AM (7/4) fetch built to storm status at 50 kts from the southwest over a small area with 32 ft seas building at 62S 129W. In the evening fetch was fading from 45 kts tracking northeast with seas building to 36 ft at 59S 120W targeting Southern California and points southward. Wed AM (7/5) the gale was racing northeast and fading from 40 kts with 33 ft seas over a small area at 55S 110W targeting mainly Chile.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival late on Wed (7/12) with swell building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding on early Thurs (7/13) at 2.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 184 degrees
Northern CA: Expect swell arrival late on Wed (7/12) with swell building to 1.6 ft @ 18 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding on early Thurs (7/13) at 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 180 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours high pressure is to start building in the Gulf of Alaska on Mon (7/10) at 1028 mbs continuing the weak pressure gradient but more focused over North California generating north winds at 20-25 kts generating small north windswell for exposed breaks down into Central CA. The gradient is to build in coverage some on Tues (7/11) then collapsing on Wed (7/12) with winds down to 15-20 kts mid-day and shrinking in coverage into Thursday. Diminishing north windswell Wednesday onward.
For Hawaii trades to rebuild some from the east as the high builds starting Tues AM (7/11) at 15 kts over a good sized footprint east of the Islands then starting to retreat Wednesday and gone later in the day. Low odds for small easterly windswell along exposed easterly shores.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather system are forecast.
More details to follow...
Cool SSTs Developing Tracking West off Ecuador
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration and is holding.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Wednesday (7/5) east winds were over the entire equatorial Pacific including the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were weak from the east near the Galapagos and also weak easterly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): Modest east anomalies were modeled over the East KWGA and forecast to retrograde west to the far west KWGA by the end of the 7 day model run (7/13). It is expected that since these winds are at the 850 mb level (4,200 ft) a near neutral wind pattern will be in play at the surface. As of a few weeks ago it was looking like the long running Inactive Phase of the MJO/La Nina was dissipating, but it still appears to have not given up completely.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: As of 7/5 a very weak Inactive/Dry Phase of the MJO was in play over the far Western Pacific. The statistical model depicts a neutral pattern taking over quickly and continuing with no MJO signal in play over the next 2 weeks. The dynamic model continues to suggest the Inactive Phase holding in the West Pacific for the next 2 weeks.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/6) The ECMF model indicates the Active Phase of the MJO was exceedingly weak over the Central Indian Ocean and is to track steadily east reaching the Maritime Continent 2 weeks out. The GEFS depicts the Active Phase holding weak in the Indian Ocean through the 2 week period.
40 day Upper Level Model: (7/6) This model depicts a weak Active/Wet Pattern over the West Pacific and it is forecast to slowly track east and dissipate off Central America on 8/5. Perhaps a weak Dry/Inactive Phase to set up in the far West Pacific through 8/15. This model runs about 2 weeks ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (7/6) This model depicts a weak Active MJO signal over the KWGA. Neutral to weak west anomalies were indicated over the KWGA. Over the coming days weak west anomalies are to be building in coverage in the KWGA with the weak Active MJO signal holding over the KWGA to 8/2. Weak west anomalies holding in the KWGA after that until a legitimate Active Phase of the MJO is to fully develop in the West Pacific on 8/20 with building west anomalies moderate in strength holding till 9/15 with a weak Inactive Phase of the MJO trying to develop in the KWGA 9/16-10/2 (end of the model run) but west anomalies still in play in the KWGA, but weaker. Of note: East anomalies are to be in-play from the dateline and points east of there from 7/29 onward. The west wind anomaly scenario is likely overstated as the model has been teasing at west anomalies for months and yet they never develop. The low pass filter indicates La Nina dissipated as of 6/14. A lowpass La Nina signal is to redevelop 8/23 (previously 7/21) but from the dateline eastward. Best guess is a very weak directionless pattern is to set up or even a weak La Nina redeveloping in Fall of 2017. It will take 5 years for the Pacific to recharge from the 2014-16 El Nino.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/6) Actual temperatures remain stratified with warm water in the far West Pacific at 30 degs over a shallow area at 160E. The 28 deg isotherm line is steady at 144W. The 24 deg isotherm has retrograded west ending at 102W. It is 100 meters deep at 140W. Anomaly wise a generic pattern of +1 deg anomalies stretches from the East to West Pacific from 110 meters upward. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/27 depicts a continuous stream of warm water tracking from the west to the east suggesting a homogenous pattern biased warm was in effect of the upper reaches of the entire equatorial Pacific. There is no real warm water in the far West Pacific to feed any sort of a progressive Kelvin Wave pattern. The GODAS image appears to be about 1 week behind the TAO data.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/27) In all no positive or negative anomalies are present over the length of the equatorial Pacific other than a pocket of 0-5 cm anomalies at 140W that was shrinking in coverage. Effectively a dead neutral pattern is in control of the entire equatorial Pacific.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (7/5) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a lightly warm pattern is just west of the coast of South American tracking northwest up to a point just south of the equator and then west from there. Nearshore a weak upwelling pattern is depicted lifting north off Chile, Peru and Ecuador then turning west over the Galapagos and west along the equator to 110W. Also cooling was present over a broad area off Central America and Mexico out to 120W. In short, a cool pattern is setting up over the Nino1.2 region advecting west. Also a broad pocket of cooling was building centered at 25S 100W (well off Chile). The La Nina that developed last Spring faded and was replaced by an El Nino like pattern that tried to build after it during March-May, but that too has dissipated and is being replaced by a neutral to cool pattern.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/5): A neutral trend was along the coasts of Chile and Peru. A markedly cooler trend is holding from Ecuador over the Galapagos and out to 120W. This almost looks like the early start of a legit La Nina pattern. A strong warming trend continues in the Northern Hemi from California pushing north of Hawaii and reaching west to the Philippines. But overall nothing remarkable is indicated.
Hi-res Overview: (7/5) A weak warm regime holds from Chile north to Ecuador and west along the equator to 140W then stronger to 140E. But a stream of cooler water is developing embedded in it extending from Peru, Ecuador then west over the Galapagos out to 120W. Overall waters of all oceans of the planet are warmer than normal. Suspect climatology needs to be updated to reflect this new reality, or the recent Super El Nino has significantly redistributed heat across the oceans.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/6) Today's temps were falling solidly to -0.600, down from the peak of +3.0 degs on 3/18 and +1.0 degs on 5/2..
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (7/6) temps were rising slightly at +0.574 degs.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (7/6) The forecast has temps starting to fall weakly from +0.50 degs today, forecast dropping to +0.4 in early Aug holding into Oct, then dropping steadily to 0.0 in Jan 2018, perhaps warming to +0.2.5 degs in March. This suggests a neutral pattern setting up for the Winter of 2017-2018. CFS data (6/26) still suggests a Modoki style warming pattern over the dateline this Fall and Winter but other models are no suggesting a return of a weak La Nina pattern. There is no source for El Nino like warming with the warm pool in the far West Pacific weak and fading. Much recharging and heat buildup is required for a real El Nino to develop. We're at least 5 years out from that.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-June Plume updated (6/15) depicts temps have warmed to +0.3 degs. Temps are forecast to hold at this level for the coming 8 months suggesting a neutral pattern in control. See chart here - link. The NMME consensus depicts the same thing with temp +0.3 degrees above normal through Feb.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (7/6): The daily index was rising at 9.97 and has been positive for 3 days now, after a negative 33 day run. The 30 day average was rising some at -7.23. The 90 day average was steady at -4.64 or just south of neutral. This suggests a return to ENSO neutral conditions has taken hold.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (7/6) Today's value was rebounding slightly at -1.86 (up from -2.20 on 6/28) but still strongly suggesting a turn towards La Nina. A peak low was reached on 11/2/16 at -1.94, the deepest of the past La Nina event. So the index is currently more negative than at the peak of last years La Nina. At this time it looks like La Nina is returning. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO continues positive, though much weaker lately (as expected with La Nina setting in).
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.10, Feb = +0.03, March = +0.09, April=+0.52, May=+0.36. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table