Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
Saturday, July 9, 2016
- Buoy 146 (Lanai): Seas were 3.4 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 14.2 secs from 197 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 11.4 secs from 187 degrees. Wind southwest 4-6 kts. Water temperature 67.6 degs. At Santa Barbara swell was 1.5 ft @ 5.8 secs from 255 degrees. At Santa Monica swell was 1.5 ft @ 11.3 secs from 200 degrees. Southward from Orange County to San Diego swell was 1.8 ft @ 10.3 secs from 190 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 10.3 secs with windswell 2.8 ft @ 10.3 secs. Wind west 4 kts. Water temp 55.0 degs.
Buoy 46059, Hi-res Buoys
On Saturday (7/9) in North and Central CA local northwest windswell was producing waves at up to waist high and clean but fogged in. At Santa Cruz bare minimal southern hemi swell was producing waves at knee to thigh high and clean and weak. In Southern California up north windswell was producing waves at maybe knee high and clean early. Down south hurricane swell was producing set waves at waist high and clean but weak. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting New Zealand swell with waves still head high with a few bigger sets and clean and lined up. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high and chopped from easterly trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
A small gale developed just east of New Zealand on Fri (7/1) with seas to 37 ft over a small area aimed northeast with swell in the water pushing northeast and has peaked in Hawaii and moving towards California. Another gale formed in the Southeast Pacific late Sat (7/2) producing 36 ft seas aimed briefly north. Not too much is expected from it relative to California and nothing for Hawaii. Neither system had much coverage or duration. Another gale formed south of New Zealand on Wed-Thurs (7/7) with 32 ft seas aimed mainly east. Small swell is possible. Nothing else is forecast to follow dues to the presence of the Inactive Phase of the MJO. Supposedly a weak version of the Active Phase is setting up now, so there's some hope that the storm pattern might trend more favorable in the Southern Hemi, but that is far from guaranteed. The tropics have produced Hurricane Blas with small swell hitting the Big Island of Hawaii but buried in local windswell. Supposedly another is forecast to follow early next week moving much closer to the Islands.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Saturday AM (7/9) no swell producing fetch is occurring and none is forecast for the next 72 hours.
There was no California coastal pressure gradient in effect on Saturday (7/7) resulting in no support for local windswell production. Low pressure was just off Oregon blocking high pressure at 1032 mbs centered 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii from ridging into the coast. Instead a calm flow was over all of California. But the low was generating a small fetch of 25 kt northwest winds on the 310 degree path into North CA resulting in some hope for windswell by Sunday (7/10). Over the next 72 hours the low is to move inland over Oregon on Sun (7/10) with high pressure building in directly behind in the afternoon allowing the standard coastal pressure gradient to set up generating north winds at 20-25 kts focused near Pt Conception and lifting northward Mon-Tues (7/12) while weakening, down to barely 20 kts Tues AM. No real windswell to result.
For Hawaii on Sat (7/9) east trades were limited to the area just over and north of the Islands at 15 kts from the east-northeast resulting in some limited east windswell on exposed shores. Northeast trades to start fading Sunday and continue weak (less than 15 kts) through Tues (7/12) with the remnants of what was Hurricane Blas dissipating and not moving any closer than 600 nmiles east-northeast of the Islands. The result is to be fading northeast windswell and some swell from Blas limited to east facing shores of the Big Island and Maui.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Hurricane Blas peaked Wed AM (7/6) with peak winds 110 kts positioned 1320 nmiles south-southwest of Santa Cruz Ca and 1110 nmiles south-southwest of Dana Point CA. Assuming 14 sec period sideband swell resulting, peak swell should arrive on Fri 4 PM (7/8) in NCal and 8 AM on Fri in SCal. Blas was also 1799 nmiles from the Big Islands of Hawaii on the 94.5 degree track. Peak swell arrival expected Sat (7/9) at 8 AM with period 15 secs. On Thurs AM (7/7) Blas still had winds of 105 kts tracking west-northwest at 8 kts and was beyond the CA swell window but was still spraying wave energy towards Hawaii from 1610 nmiles out of the 93 degree track. By Friday AM (7/8) Blas was fading steadily with winds dropping from 80 kts and no longer being an effective swell producer relative to even HI. On Sat AM (7/9) winds were down to 50 kts and Blas to be a minimal tropical storm on Sun AM (7/10) with winds 35 kts (1072 nmiles from Hawaii on the 80 degree track) and down to Depression status after that. The best odds of swell production are for Hawaii (Big Island).
Big Island: Swell arrival on Sat (7/9) building to near 4 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (6.0 ft faces). Swell holding on Sun (7/10) at 4.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (5.5 ft faces). Swell fading slowly from there. Swell Direction: 90-94 degrees
Southern CA: Swell continues Sat (7/9) at 3.1 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (7/10) from 2.2 ft @ 11 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 180-190 degrees
NCal: Swell continues Sat (7/9) at 3.1 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (7/10) from 2.4 ft @ 11-12 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 180-190 degrees
Tropical Storm Celia on Sat AM (7/9) was positioned 2209 nmiles east-southeast of the Big Islands of Hawaii with winds 50 kts tracking west at 13 kts. Steady strengthening is forecast while tracking west-northwest with winds winds to 80 kts on Tues (7/12) positioned at 16N 128W and making a bit of a turn to the west-northwest. The GFS model suggests this system hold together longer than Blas and moving in closer proximity to Hawaii a week out therefore providing increased odds for swell production there. Winds forecast at 45-50 kts 450 nmiles east of Maui on Sat AM (7/16). Will believe it when it happens.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (7/9) high pressure was trying to nose into California but was being held at bay by low pressure just off Oregon, resulting in calm local winds and fog early. By Sunday the low is to be well inland and the usual summertime pressure gradient is to start rebuilding with north winds to 25 kts but southward di.cgiaced near Pt Conception (and only 15 kts for San Francisco), then fading to 20 kts while lifting northward near Pt Reyes in on Mon-Tues (7/12). Wed-Thurs (7/14) a more normal pressure gradient situation is to develop with north winds near 25 kts over North CA and 20 kt north winds reaching south but well west of Pt Conception with an eddy flow (south winds) entrenched nearshore for Central CA. Friday the gradient to bloom with north winds 30 kts over North CA and near 35 kts Sat (7/16) but the eddy flow entrenched from Bodega Bay southward.
On Saturday AM (7/9) the jet was .cgiit over the Tasman Sea and New Zealand but consolidated over the Central South Pacific tracking east that way into Chile and centered roughly on the 40S latitude line. A bit of a trough was suggested southeast of New Zealand but with winds only 100 kts feed into it originating in the channel between New Zealand and Antarctica. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to build as up to 140 kt winds develop under New Zealand Mon (7/11) lifting well northeast getting good exposure north of Antarctic Ice. That trough is to push into Tues (7/12) with winds pushing well north, but fading in velocity to barely 120 kts. In all some support is to be present to feed gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere. Beyond 72 hours the trough is to quickly fade later Wednesday (7/13) in the far Southeast Pacific with support for gale development evaporating. At the same time to the west a big ridge is to be taking over pushing south to Antarctica taking over the bulk of the South Pacific by Fri AM (7/15). There's some suggestion the trough might redevelop on Fri (7/15) with 140 kt south winds developing lifting well north but mostly east of even the SCal swell window. By Sat (7/16) there indication the big ridge might start fading.
On Saturday (7/9) a small swell was in the water tracking north (see New Zealand Gale below). A second gale produced swell so small as to be negligible (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).
And a gale developed under New Zealand Wed-Thurs (7/7) offering another pulse of small swell (see New Zealand gale below).
New Zealand Gale
A cutoff low developed southeast of New Zealand on Fri AM (7/1) generating 40 kt south-southwest winds at 45S 174W aimed north and seas starting to build. By evening winds build from the south-southwest at 50 kts and seas building to 31 ft over a small area at 45S 172W and up to 37 ft at 42S 169.5W at 06Z (unshadowed in NCal, barely unshadowed in SCal). Fetch was fading from 40 kts Sat AM (7/2) aimed northeast with seas fading from 35 ft at 40.5S 168W. This system was very short lived and small in coverage but was still capable of producing decent swell for Tahiti with small swell for Hawaii.
Hawaii: Residuals on Sun (7/10) at 2.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees
South CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (7/10) building to 1.6 ft @ 17 secs (2.7 ft with sets to 3.4 ft). Swell continuing on Mon (7/11) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft) . Swell fading Tues (7/12) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 216 degrees
A secondary pulse to arrive late on Thurs (7/14) building from 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.5 ft with sets to 3.0 ft). On Fri (7/15) swell building to 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft) in the afternoon. Swell to fade on Sat (7/16) from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (7/10) building to 1.8 ft @ 17 secs (3.1 ft with sets to 3.8 ft). On Mon (7/11) swell holding at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). On Tues (7/12) swell fading from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 213-214 degrees
A secondary pulse to arrive on Fri (7/15) building to 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft) in the afternoon. Swell to fade on Sat (7/16) from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees
Southeast Pacific Gale
On Sat AM (7/2) a small cutoff gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific generating 40 kt southeast winds and seas on the increase. By the evening fetch built to 55 kts from the south -southeast aimed well at California with seas to 32 ft at 51.5S 124 (182 degs NCal, 184 degs SCal), peaking at 06Z at 35 ft over a tiny area at 51.5S 125W. Fetch was fading from 45-50 kts from the south Sun AM (7/3) with seas fading from 29 ft at 51.5S 127W (182 degs NCal, 185 degs SCal). This system was gone after that.
South CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun PM after sunset (7/10) with period 17 secs and size tiny. Swell 1 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5 ft) on Mon (7/11). Swell Direction: 184 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon AM (7/11) with swell 1 ft @ 17-18 secs and size tiny (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell continuing on Tues (7/12) at 1 ft @ 16 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 182 degrees
New Zealand Gale
A gale started tracking under New Zealand on Wed AM (7/6) producing an elongated fetch of 40-45 kts winds aimed east starting to get traction on the oceans surface. By evening 40 kts west winds were pushing east getting traction on the oceans surface with seas building to 32 ft at 57.5S 165E (199 degs HI, 214 degs NCal and unshadowed, 214 degs SCal and shadowed). 40 kt southwest winds continued moving east on Thurs AM (7/7) with 32 ft seas at 58S 174E (210 degs NCal and almost shadowed, 211 degs SCal and shadowed, 193 degs HI). Fetch faded from 35+ kts in the evening while tracking east from there with seas fading from 29 ft at 58S 177W (207 degs NCal and shadowed, 208 degs SCal and just becoming unshadowed, 190 degs HI). The gale dissipated thereafter.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (7/14) building to 1.3 ft @ 18 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continuing up slightly on Fri AM (7/15) pushing 1.6 ft @ 16 secs (2.5 ft with sets to 3.0 ft). Swell fading some on Sat (7/16) from 1.7 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft with sets to 3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (9/16) at sunset with period 18 secs and size near 1.3 ft @ 18 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 211 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (9/16) at sunset with period 18 secs and size near 1.3 ft @ 18 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 210 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours the local California pressure gradient is to move over the north end of the state on Wed (7/13) with winds barely 25 kts building to 25 kts on Thurs (7/14) with 20 kt north winds pushing south but well off Pt Conception suggesting an eddy flow for all of Central CA. Then winds to build to 30 kts on Friday (7/15) over Cape mendocino with an eddy flow well established up into Bodega Bay with north winds building to 35 kts on Sat AM (7/16). Windswell size to be commensurate to the strength and coverage of these winds focused best on Central CA.
For Hawaii trades are to remain below the 15 kt threshold Tues-Fri (7/15) then building from the northeast on Sat (7/16) but attributable solely to Hurricane Celia. No real windswell expected.
Beyond 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing in the Central South Pacific on Mon PM (7/11) with winds from the southwest at 35 kts over a small area. By Tues AM (7/9) winds to reach 40 kts pushing well north but fleeting with seas never exceeding 25 ft. More fetch in the 35 kts range from the south is expected Wed AM (7/13) with seas 26 ft at 55S 133W. Fetch to fade in the evening at 35 kts but over a huge area aimed north-northeast with seas 27 ft at 53S 133W. More fetch possible beyond too. Something to monitor.
More details to follow...
La Nina Pulsing
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equatorial Pacific it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slack if not an outright reversal of trade winds and enhanced precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the.cgianet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to .cgiit resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: The 2014-2016 El Nino is fading out. La Nina is emerging.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Fri (7/8) east winds were over the equatorial Pacific east of 160W but fading west of there and even turning light west in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA). Anomalies were neutral over the most of the equatorial Pacific but light to moderate westerly in the KWGA reaching east to 155W.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): Neutral to very light west anomalies were over the KWGA on 7/9. A neutral to weak easterly anomaly pattern is to develop over the KWGA through 7/16 with west anomalies moving east to 120W suggestive of a fading weak Active MJO pattern tracking east.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: As of 7/8 a neutral MJO signal was over the Pacific. The Statistic model projects no change with neutral anomalies in.cgiay the next 2 weeks. The dynamic model depicts much the same pattern.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/9) The ECMF model indicates a dead MJO signal. The forecast projects no change for the coming 2 week window. The GEFS model depicts a variation on the same theme.
40 day Upper Level Model: (7/9) A weak Active Phase was over the far East Pacific moving east and expected to fade there 7/19. A new weak Inactive Phase of the MJO was developing in the West Pacific and expected to move east from there through 8/3. Another Inactive Phase to follow on it's heels in the West Pacific.
CFS Model beyond 1 week (850 mb wind): This model depicts a weak Active MJO signal was midway over the KWGA moving east with weak west anomalies in.cgiay and offering minimal support for enhancing the jetstream. It projects this Active Phase moving east and fading through 7/20. An Inactive MJO pattern to follow with weak east anomalies taking root 7/26-8/22. An Active MJO signal to follow 8/25 to 10/5 with west anomalies over the far West Pacific (in the KWGA) to 170E and stationary with east anomalies from 170W and point east to Central America. The low pass filter suggests the remnants of El Nino are shifting east and are now south of Hawaii (rather than in the KWGA) and offering nothing to enhance the jetstream and are to dissipate (gone) south of California by 9/6. At the same time low pass anomalies are over the Indian Ocean and forecast to build into Oct, typical of La Nina.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/9) Actual temperatures are building in the west near the surface and fading in the east daily. A pocket of 30 deg temps were building in the far West Pacific with the 28 deg isotherm line stable now at 165W. No El Nino subsurface anomalies remain. Warm anomalies at +1 degs rule from the West Pacific to 160W with weak negative anomalies between there and 125W. Neutral anomalies are east of there over a shallow pool near the surface. Cool subsurface waters are at depth erupting between 130W-160W with -3 degs anomalies reaching east down 100 meters to 140W (steady). The Kelvin Wave pipeline has been r.cgiaced with a cold river rushing east. But it appears to be not reaching Ecuador, but rather is westward di.cgiaced. Per the hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/2 a weak pocket of +0.5-1.0 deg anomalies is building from 130E to 160E. Cool waters 3-4 degs below normal were under the entire width of the equator, undercutting any residual warm water above it and forming a bubble near 150W and upwelling from 120-150W but also reaching east to Ecuador. La Nina is in control of the ocean.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (7/8) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicates cooler than normal water continues over the entire equatorial Pacific with negative anomalies along the coast of Peru pushing north building while extending west from Ecuador over the Galapagos, tracking solidly west out to at least 160W with with peak temps down to -1.75 degs (near the Galapagos and south of Hawaii). The cool pattern over the Central equatorial Pacific seems to have stabilized. La Nina is firmly in control of surface waters, with remnant El Nino warm water 3 degs north and south of the equator but cool water now reaching up to 10N in pockets quickly edging out the warmer water. No warm water remains anywhere in the Nino regions on the equator.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/7): A neutral trend has developed weakly along Chile and Peru. But a strong cooling trend has redeveloped from the Galapagos out to 145W suggesting La Nina is pulsing. A mirror image cooler trend has developed in the Atlantic though weaker extending from the coast out to almost Brazil. The PDO warm pool is holding solidly if not building from Oregon out to a point north of Hawaii and west from there to Japan.
Hi-res Overview: (7/7) The El Nino signal is dissipating. A clear La Nina cool water pool is tracking from Ecuador and building some recently south of Hawaii. A generalized pattern of +1-2 deg above normal temps remains 3 degs north and south of the equator and west of 180W. Cooler water is over the north dateline region in the North Pacific with warm water off the Pacific Northwest streaming over Hawaii looking very much like the classic Active PDO pattern.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/9) Today's temps were steady at +0.078 degs.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (7/9) temps were steady at -0.011 degs.
Comparing Stongest El Ninos in the last 50 year - ERSSTv4 'centered' data
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (7/9) indicates temps on a steady downward trajectory falling to -0.65 degs in mid-Sept and holding through Dec, then slowly rising in Jan 2017 and neutral by March. This is moderate La Nina territory but it's up from the -1.5 and -1.25 degs indicated even a few weeks ago.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-June Plume depicts temps falling steadily from here forward, down to -0.7 by Sept then holding there to March. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Deco.cgiing (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (7/8): The daily index was weakly negative at -2.20. The 30 day average was rising at +4.61. It transitioned from negative to positive (first time in 2 years) on 5/27. The 90 day average was rising from -3.09. El Nino was evident only in the 90 day average, and even that will soon be a distant memory.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation): (7/9) Today's value was steady at -0.97. It peaked on 3/12 at +1.57 then fell until 4/14, when it started rising again peaking 4/23 at +1.12. But it has been falling steadily ever since.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO continues positive, though a little weaker in June (as expected with La NIna setting in). Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-June) have been +0.79, +1.23, +1.55, +1.60, +1.45 and +0.78. The Washington EDU index for the Jan-May period indicates +1.54, +1.75, +2.40, +2.62 and +2.35. The PDO turned from a 6 year negative run (2008-2013) in early 2014 and has been positive since then. Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data suggests that could be a real possibility. We've been in the negative phase since 1998 through at least 2013 (15 years). By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table