Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 4.1 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 13.2 secs from 185 degrees. Water temp 79.7 degs (Barbers Pt), 79.2 (Pearl Harbor 233), 78.6 (Lani 239).
Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 6.1 secs from 45 degrees. Water temp 79.2 degs.
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.3 ft @ 17.2 secs with swell 1.1 ft @ 17.3 secs from 208 degrees. Wind west at 4 kts. Water temperature 66.7 degs, 69.6 (Topanga 103), 68.2 degs (Long Beach 215), 72.5 (Del Mar 153), 70.3 (Torrey Pines Outer 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.2 ft @ 9.7 secs from 302 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 17.8 secs from 200 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.3 ft @ 17.2 secs from 197 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.4 ft @ 17.4 secs from 196 degrees. Water temp 70.2 degs.
Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 10.0 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 9.2 secs from 298 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was southeast at 2-4 kts. Water temp 52.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 51.6 (Pt Reyes 46013), 54.9 (46026), 58.1 (SF Bar 142), 60.1 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 58.1 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (7/26) North and Central CA had set waves at waist high and somewhat warbled from southerly wind. Protected breaks were thigh to maybe waist high and mostly clean with south texture on top. At Santa Cruz surf was rarely thigh to waist high and clean and lined up but weak. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and somewhat lined up and clean but weak. Central Orange County had sets to waist high and lined and fairly clean with some texture from light northerly wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets waist to maybe chest high or so and lined up and real clean but inconsistent. North San Diego had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and lined up and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had waves at chest to shoulder high with clean conditions and good form. The East Shore had east windswell at up to waist high and chopped from from steady east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (7/26) small swell was hitting Hawaii of California associated with the first of 3 gales that developed in the Central South Pacific. the first formed on Sun-Mon (7/18) producing up to 27 ft seas aimed northeast. On Thurs (7/21) a second gale produced up to 29 ft seas aimed northeast for 12 hours offering some limited hope. And a third gale developed just off the Ross Rice Shelf on Sat-Sun (7/24) producing up to 32 ft seas aimed northeast. Beyond a stronger gale is forecast over the far Southeast Pacific on Thurs (7/28) producing 35 ft seas aimed northeast. Beyond no clearly defined swell producing weather systems are forecast. So there is some modest hope.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (7/26) no swell of interest was in the water and no swell producing weather systems have occurred.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Wed (7/28) northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early and holding in the afternoon. No windswell production forecast.
Thurs (7/29) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North Ca and 101-5 kts for Central CA early and building to 15 kts all location in the afternoon. No windswell forecast.
Fri (7/30) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for most of North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are to be 15 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. No windswell is forecast.
Sat (7/31) northwest winds to be 10-15 ks for North Ca and mostly 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts south of there. No windswell forecast.
Sun (8/1) northwest winds to build over Cape Mendocino at 15-20 kts early and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds building to 20+ kts for Cape Mendocino but holding at 10 kts south of Bodega bay. No real windswell forecast.
Mon (8/2) a weak summertime pressure gradient is forecast over North CA with northwest winds 20-25 kts down to Pt Arena with northwest winds 10 kts south of there early. In the afternoon the gradient is to fade with north winds 20 kts over North CA and 10 kts south of Bodega Bay. Limited windswell at best.
Tues (8/3) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts limited to Cape Mendocino early with northwest winds 10 kts from Bodega Bay southward.

Freezing level for the Tioga Pass Road is 14,000+ ft today and unchanged for the foreseeable future. A summertime pattern is in effect.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (7/26) the influential southern branch of the jetstream was pushing over the Ross Ice Shelf under New Zealand then drifting north becoming barely exposed north of Antarctic Ice over the Central South Pacific forming a trough being fed by only 100 kt winds offering no real support for gale development then falling south over the Southeast Pacific. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to rapidly collapse with a zonal flow taking over offering no troughs and no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours a shallow trough is to form over the Southeast Pacific on Thurs (7/28) being fed by 130 kt winds lifting just a bit north of Antarctic Ice before pushing east of the Southern CA swell window on Fri (7/29) offering some limited support for gale development. After that a zonal flow is forecast but with a trough forecast developing under New Zealand on Sat (7/30) being fed by 120 kts winds pushing north persisting in some form into Tues (8/2) perhaps offering some support for gale development.

Surface Analysis
Swell from 3 weak gales previously over the South Central Pacific are tracking north (see 1st, 2nd and 3rd Weak South Central Pacific Gales below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is to develop in the Southeast Pacific Wed PM (7/27) with 35-40 kts west winds and seas building. On Thurs AM (7/28) fetch to build to 45 kts more solid from the southwest right on the edge of the CA swell window with seas 30 ft at 61.75S 124.75W aimed mostly east. In the evening fetch holding at 45 kts but positioned well east of the SCal swell window with seas up to 35 ft exiting the SCal swell window at 60.75S 118W at 18Z Thurs. Something to monitor but odds of meaningful swell resulting are low.

1st Weak South Central Pacific Gale
On Sun PM (7/17) a small gale developed over the Central South Pacific producing 40 kts winds aimed north with seas building from 24 ft at 53S 153W aimed north. On Mon AM (7/18) winds were 35 kts solid from the south with seas building to 27 ft at 49S 146W aimed north. In the evening the gale faded out with seas from previous fetch fading from 25 ft at 45S 142.5W aimed north. Small swell is radiating north towards HI and CA.

Oahu: Swell fading Tues (7/26) from 1.6 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.0 ft). Nothing after that. Swell Direction: 182 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/26) building to 1.4 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Wed (7/27) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (7/28) from 1.9 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri (7/29) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/26) building to 1.2 ft @ 17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaking on Wed (7/27) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (7/28) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft) early. Dribbles on Fri (7/29) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

2nd Weak Central South Pacific Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand on Thurs AM (7/21) producing southwest winds at 40 kts just clear of the Ross Ice Shelf with seas building from 27 ft at 59.5S 179.25E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was tracking northeast barely at 40 kts with seas 29 ft over a small area at 58.25S 172.5W aimed northeast. The gale and associated fetch and seas faded fast from there. Limited swell is possible.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (7/28) building to 1.5 ft @ 15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) later. Swell holding early Fri (7/29) at 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft) early, then fading from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs later (2.5 ft) while being overrun by possibly a new swell. Swell Direction: 188-189 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (7/29) building to 1.0 ft @ 16-17 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell building some on Sat (7/30) at 1.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (7/31) from 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5-2.0 ft) and starting to get overrun by new swell. Swell Direction: 205 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (7/30) building to 1.0 ft @ 16 secs (1.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (7/31) from 1.2 ft @ 15 secs (1.5-2.0 ft) and starting to get overrun by new swell. Swell Direction: 203 degrees

3rd Weak Central South Pacific Gale
On Sat PM (7/23) another small gale developed southeast of New Zealand with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 30 ft at 62S 177W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (7/24) the gale was fading with 35-40 kt southwest winds over a decent sized area and seas 32 ft at 60S 165.75W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was lifting north while fading and getting absorbed by a cutoff low to the north with south winds 30-35 kts and seas fading from 27 ft at 55.25S 162.5W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Fri (7/29) building to 1.6 ft @ 16 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell continues up some on Sat (7/30) at 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (7/31) from 2.1 ft @ 13 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on late on Sun (7/31) building to 1.5 ft @ 16 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking mid-day Mon (8/1) at 1.8 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (8/2) from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (8/3) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (7/31) building to 1.3 ft @ 17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking later Mon (8/1) at 1.9 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (8/2) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (8/3) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (8/2) some degree of fetch and seas are forecast developing southwest of New Zealand and also southeast of New Zealand in the 28 ft range. But any details and specifics are premature to discuss as the models are changing with almost each new run. Any specific outcome has low odds of occurring.

Kelvin Wave Breaking Up
Cool Water Redeveloping - Models Suggesting Another La Nina Surge in Fall
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but is stating to rebuild in late July. A Kelvin Wave traversed the equatorial Pacific May-June, but is discharging now. The SOI appears to be past its peak. La Nina conditions are projected weakly returning in Nino3.4 in Fall then fading in Winter. But overall cool water volume over the entire equatorial Pacific is to be fading steadily from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/25) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/26) Moderate east anomalies were building over the KWGA today. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies building to strong status over the KWGA on 7/27 filling the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 8/2.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (7/25) A moderate Inactive MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a moderate Inactive Pattern holding on day 5 then fading to neutral on day 10 with a moderate Active MJO setting up over the KWGA on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/26) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over Africa and is to move to the Maritime Continent on day 15 of the model run and weak. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase moving to the East Maritime Continent on day 15 of the model run and very weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/26) A moderate Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was over the East equatorial Pacific. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) tracking east while dissolving over the Central America on 8/5. The Active Phase of the MJO (wet air) is to be develop over the KWGA on 8/5 tracking east to the Central Pacific and filling the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 9/4. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building over the KWGA starting 8/30 holding through the end of the model run.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/25) The Active Phase of the MJO was all but gone over the KWGA today with east anomalies taking over the KWGA. The Active Phase and west anomalies are to push east and dissipate on 7/26. East anomalies are to build over the dateline and holding solid through the end of the model run on 8/22 though no clear MJO signal indicated.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/26 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak Active Phase was fading over the KWGA with west anomalies collapsing over the dateline. The forecast depicts the Active Phase pushing east and dissipating on 7/28 over the dateline with weak east anomalies taking control of the KWGA. A weak Inactive Phase is to set up over the KWGA starting 7/26 through 9/4 with east anomalies again filling the KWGA. But on 8/12 the Active Phase of the MJO is to start building east slowly filling the KWGA by 9/12 and building it's footprint to the east through the end of the model run on 10/24. and almost east of the KWGA at that time. West anomalies to reach east to about 150E mid-Sept and stalled there through the end of the model run. East anomalies are to fill the area east of there but slowly giving way and less coherent over the KWGA by 10/12 as the Active MJO builds east. This is an interesting development. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered at 150W with its western perimeter at 165E today. A second contour is to redevelop on 8/5 with the western edge of the high pressure bias retrograding west to 145E at the end of the model run. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 115E with it's leading edge at 140E today filling 40% of the KWGA but is forecast retrograding to 130E at the end of the model run. A second contour line is to appear on 8/6. Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31. But east anomalies have now recentered themselves at 170W (previously on the dateline) but are to continue to have some solid influence over the KWGA for the foreseeable future.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/26) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 167E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 178E. The 26 degree isotherm was at 142W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific and a little deeper in the far East. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge at 170W, A pocket of cool anomalies were developing down to -3 degs C at 140W and filling the area from 170W to 120W at depth. The remnants of a previous Kevin Wave were at +2 deg in the East Pacific off Ecuador starting at 135W and slowly losing coverage while erupting to the surface. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/22 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 170W but far warmer. A cool pocket was between 120W to 170W and reaching the surface. The fading remnants of a previous Kelvin Wave were fading fast between 100-130W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/22) Sea heights were falling over the Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator west of the dateline pushing to east 165E. A building pocket of negative anomalies were developing at -15 cms between 125W to 180W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram a Kelvin Wave was fading limited to a tiny area at 105W. And cool anomalies were building between 125W and 175W and again just off Ecuador. The Kelvin Wave looks like its fading fast while weakly erupting and a cool cycle is developing.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/25) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. the coolest waters were on the equator in the west from 135W and points west of there. An area of warm water was present nearly continuous on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W, the eruption of the current Kelvin Wave. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 145W. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/25): Pockets of cooling water were on the equator between 90W to 140W with an equal number of warming pockets.
Hi-res Overview: (7/25) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S with the coolest waters between 150W to 170E on the equator. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 135W reaching 3 degrees north and south of the equator. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be waning with warm water from a Kelvin Wave erupting over the East equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/26) Today's temps were rising slightly at -1.362 after dipping a week before to -1.6 degs. But in general they've been stable the past 2 weeks. Previous peaks were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5) and had been more or less steady at -1.5 degs since 6/12. Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after previously being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/26) Today's temps were trending down at -0.482 and have been falling since 7/15 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs.
Forecast (7/26) - Temps are to fade steadily in Aug to -0.80 degs then holding into Oct before falling to -0.95 degs in Nov, before starting a quick rise above the La Nina threshold in Jan and up to +0.40 degs in April. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps holding more or less steady at -0.6 degs through Oct receding to -0.75 degrees in mid-Nov, then starting an upward progression rising above La Nina threshold in Jan and rising from there forward to +0.25 degs in March and holding through April. According to this version of the model we will be try to move out of La Nina in July, only to fall back into it in the Fall before finally rising out of it in Dec. That said - the surface temp coverage model suggests a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) from here forward and the cool-down limited to the equator and only weakly. By Dec near neutral temps are to prevail over the entire equatorial Pacific and cool waters totally gone in Jan. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to be weakening starting from October and points beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.665 degs today. Temps to fall more to -0.821 in Nov then are to warm to +0.024 in March. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through Nov. then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (7/26) the daily index was rising some at +7.02 with previous peaks at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was falling at +8.13 today after peaking at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling some at +13.75 today after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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