On Thursday (8/2) Northern CA surf was waist high with a few rare chest high sets and reasonably clean. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were waist high with bigger sets. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was waist high and bumpy. Surf in Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was thigh high at the best breaks. The LA Area southward to Orange County was waist to rarely chest high. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were waist to near chest high. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore had surf fading from waist high. The East Shore report was not available.
North/Central California was getting tiny northwest windswell mixed with tiny southern hemi swell. Southern California was getting occasional bits of southern hemi swell providing something rideable at the better breaks. Hawaii was flat on the North Shore. The South Shore was getting the final day of southern hemi swell, and small at that. The North Pacific was quiet other than a tropical depression tracking towards Hawaii and high pressure northeast of the Islands starting to build possibly setting up easterly windswell for the weekend ahead. Windswell generated from this high pressure system is also forecast to surge some along the California coast over the weekend providing something rideable there too. But into next week the outlook becomes generally even less enthusiastic with high pressure retreating from the US coast and things going flat with no southern hemi swell in the picture. Only easterly windswell is expected to hold along Hawaiian easterly shores. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Thursdays jetstream charts (8/2) for the North Pacific indicated nothing of interest with a weak flow pushing generally flat west to east just south of the Aleutians pushing into British Columbia. Maximum winds were 110 kts in tiny pockets. No support for low pressure development indicated. Over the next 72 hours a big ridge is forecast to build into the Gulf with up to 130 kt winds pushing into Alaska. Beyond 72 hours the ridge to quickly push into Canada (by Monday 8/6) with a weak flat flow following. There's hints of another ridge building in the Gulf by next weekend (8/11), but that's all. In all there's no indication the jetstream will be providing support for surface level low pressure development for the next week.
At the surface today moderate high pressure at 1028 mbs was centered in the Gulf of Alaska with a thin tail ridge west all the way to Japan. Weak low pressure at 1000 mbs was over the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutians. No macro level fetch of interest was occurring in the North Pacific other than a small area of 25 kt north winds situated over Cape Mendocino CA generating tiny northerly windswell down the Central CA coast. Over the next 72 hrs through Sunday (8/5) the high to build to 1032 mbs off California producing a steady flow if 20-25 kts winds over Cape Mendocino by early Saturday and producing moderate windswell aimed towards Central CA. This to hold into Sunday. At the same time this high to start interacting with tropical depression Erick or it's remnants (see Tropical Update below) producing a solid fetch of northeasterly winds late Friday at 20-25 kts holding through the weekend, producing moderate windswell for east facing shores.
On Thursday AM (8/2) Typhoon Usagi was located inland over Southern Japan with sustained winds down to 75 kts tracking north. A steady turn to the northeast is expected over the weekend as the storm tracks through the Sea of Japan with winds fading from 50 kts. By Saturday AM (8/4) it is forecast to be ready to re-enter the the North Pacific just off the Southern Kuril Islands, then taking a track northeast up the Kuril's and remaining landlocked. No support for swell generation is suggested.
Tropical Depression Erick was located about 2/3rds of the way to Hawaii from mainland Mexico with sustained winds 30 kts and tracking due west. This motion is to continue for the next 5 days bringing it southeast of the Big Island by Tuesday into Wednesday of next week (8/8). But winds are to be down to 25 kts or less, making it not much of a swell generator, if it even last that long. Maybe some short period easterly windswell for east facing shores of the Big Islands then with luck.
The models suggest development of another tropical system off mainland Mexico Fri/Sat (8/4) following in Erick's footsteps to the west and building. Maybe something for Hawaii to watch but that is just a projection by the models, so odds are low of it occurring.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Thursday (8/2) high pressure at 1028 mbs was in the southeastern Gulf of Alaska ridging into Oregon generating the standard fetch of 25 kt north winds off Cape Mendocino producing small to moderate windswell, but the fetch itself was not impacting the coast making for decent local wind conditions. The high to build to 1032 mbs by Saturday producing a broader area of 25 kt north winds aimed better at Central CA pushing near 30 kts late, with windswell on the increase some. That fetch to start dying late Sunday (8/5), and be totally gone by Monday. A calm pattern with no windswell of winds grater than 10 kts forecast through the following workweek (8/10).
Thursdays jetstream charts (8/2) for the South Pacific indicated a split flow over the southwest then merging in the southeast Pacific courtesy of a trough pushing north there. But this trough was not pushing far up into the greater Pacific, residing south of 60S and east of 140W. Winds were only 100 kts flowing up into it too, providing limited support for surface level low pressure development. The split flow in the west provided no support there. Over the next 72 hours through Sunday (8/5) even that trough is to slip off to the east with the southern branch of the jet positioned very far to the south and land/ice-locked. No support for surface level low pressure development in the California or Hawaii swell windows. Beyond 72 hours more of the same is forecast with a very split flow in control and the southern branch displaced well to the south and weak, with the northern branch exhibiting a steady southward push. Again, no support for storm development indicated.
At the surface today low pressure at 964 mbs was in the far Southeast Pacific 40-45 kt west winds and 30 ft seas aimed at extreme southern Chile, but none of that was expected to push north towards California and totally out of the Hawaiian swell window. High pressure to the north to interact with this low through the weekend generating 50 kt winds and up to 40 ft seas just of the extreme tip of South America, but well outside our forecast area. Otherwise high pressure at 1020 mbs to be developing southeast of New Zealand choking off the normal storm corridor there and eliminating chances for storm development.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours the high pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska to retrograde west pulling away from California by Monday (8/6) and eliminating any windswell generation potential there. It's to also be losing it's fuel in the form of tropical Depression Erick relative to Hawaii, with trades fading and windswell along with it. Still high pressure at 1032 mbs to remain positioned in the Gulf, just out of range of either California or Hawaii through the end of next week. A calm pattern expected for each.
Beyond 72 hours the models indicate that high pressure is to continue in control of the Southwestern Pacific off New Zealand supported by a well displaced (to the south) jetstream flow aloft. Some degree of low pressure to try and develop off southern Chile mid-next week, but well outside our forecast area. No swell producing potential expected relative to either Hawaii or California.
Details to follow...
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table