On Sunday (8/5) Northern CA surf was maybe waist high and junky. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were flat. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was up to waist high and clean. Surf in Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was maybe thigh high at the best breaks. The LA Area southward to Orange County was rarely up to waist high. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were maybe waist high but that's being generous. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore had some occasional waist high waves. The East Shore report was not available.
North/Central California was getting minimal short period northwest windswell. Southern California was getting next to nothing other than a little windswell trying to wrap in from around Pt Conception. Hawaii was flat on the North Shore with tradewind generated windswell ont he East Shore. The South Shore was getting a new minimal pulse of southern hemi background swell swell. The North Pacific was quiet with no swell producing systems occurring and even the meager windswell in-play for CA and HI expected to die out. The models suggest some increased windswell for CA by late week into the weekend as high pressure moves to the east some, but surf to still be junky and pretty small. Little of this to reach in to Southern CA. No activity is forecast in the Southern Hemi either until maybe next weekend when a gale is forecast to maybe slide under New Zealand possibly setting up more small to moderate swell pushing towards Hawaii, but too small to have any real impact for California except the best spots in Southern CA. And at that, it's just a forecast a week off, with a week of travel time on top of that. So we won't be seeing anything for 2 weeks under the best possible scenario. So make the most of whatever windswell you can scrounge up. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Sundays jetstream charts (8/5) for the North Pacific indicated nothing of interest with a weak flow pushing from off the Kuril Islands up over the Aleutians and then into Alaska. No support for low pressure development indicated. Over the next 72 hours things to relax a bit in the Gulf of Alaska with a trough trying to organize but not making it. Beyond 72 hours the Gulf trough to dig much further south, but be very steep limiting it's potential by next weekend. Also a similar trough to try and organize near the dateline early next weekend, but it to be too steep and pinch off, dissipating by Saturday (8/11). So there's no indication the jetstream will be providing support for surface level low pressure development for the next week.
At the surface today strong high pressure at 1032 mbs was centered in the Gulf of Alaska filling the East Pacific basin. It was generating 20 kts winds off Cape Mendocino CA and also northeast of the Hawaiian Islands producing some rideable short period windswell for both locales. The remnants of typhoon Usagi had turned extratropical and were pushing over the Kuril Islands heading for the Bering Sea, with all fetch aimed north and not at our forecast area. Over the next 72 hrs through Wednesday (8/8) the high to retrograde to the west and north pulling away from both Hawaii and California by Monday, resulting in calmer winds in both places and no more windswell. Theoretically a tropical system is to form mid-way between the Mexican mainland and Hawaii tracking west, but that's big leap for the models. Otherwise a calm pattern to be in play with no swell producing fetch of any kind forecast.
On Sunday AM (8/5) the extratropical remnants of Typhoon Usagi were located off the Kuril Islands heading north (see details above).
Tropical Storm Pabuk was located about 900 nmiles south of Kyoto Japan tracking west with sustained winds 45 kts. Gradual strengthening is expected to near 105 kts on Tuesday (8/7) then making landfall on Taiwan and pushing into the Chinese mainland. No swell generation potential for our forecast area suggested.
The models continue to suggest development of another tropical system off mainland Mexico Tuesday (8/6) tracking west while building. Maybe something for Hawaii to watch but that is just a projection by the models, so odds are low of it occurring.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Sunday (8/5) high pressure at 1034 mbs was in the central Gulf of Alaska ridging into Northern CA generating a fading fetch of 20-25 kt north winds off Cape Mendocino producing small windswell. Locally light winds were indicated through nearshore from Pt Arena southward. The high is to pull off to the west and fade, leaving nearshore California waters in a rather quiet state with only bit's of 15 kts northerly winds modeled off Cape Mendocino and Pt Conception through Wednesday. Then northerly winds to start building by early Thursday over the length of the state pushing 25 kts off Cape Mendocino by Friday into early Saturday. Windswell on the increase some with bumpy conditions near shore likely. Low pressure to build offshore Sunday (8/12) though possibly killing the high and bringing calmer winds to the picture.
Sundays jetstream charts (8/5) for the South Pacific indicated a split flow over the southwest with most energy in the northern branch (to 170 kts) tracking over Northern New Zealand pushing steadily southeast and merging with the southern branch of the jet just over extreme southern Chile. The southern branch was flowing over the Ross Ice Shelf and was totally ice/land locked. This is bad because the southern branch is what drives storm production. So the trend is for candidate system to remain landlocked, getting no open ocean exposure. Over the next 72 hours through Wednesday (8/8) no change is forecast and if anything even the northern branch is to be making a steady southward push, providing yet less hope for a trough to form pushing north. Beyond 72 hours more of the same is forecast until maybe Sunday (8/12) when the faintest hint of a trough is to start developing under New Zealand pushing north, but still not enough to even clear the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf.
At the surface today high pressure at 1032 mbs was sitting right smack in the middle of the South Pacific storm corridor in the Central Pacific, driving the main flow well to the south over Antarctic Ice and aimed southerly at that. No swell producing fetch was indicated for our forecast area. Over the next 72 hours no real change is forecast. High pressure to dissipate but no gales of interest are forecast and the steady southward push of whatever is there is to still be evident. No swell production expected.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours the high pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska to start moving east again by Thursday (8/9) starting to build some wind pushing down the California coast late and building to near 25 kt over Cape Mendocino into Friday into Saturday, possibly generating some windswell then. Also the supposed tropical system is to be interacting with this high and bearing down on the Big Islands of Hawaii, with windswell and copious winds impacting there late Sunday (8/12). At the same time the high to quickly fade and low pressure to possibly form in the eastern Gulf of Alaska generating 25 kt north winds aimed well at Central CA. Seems like a bit of a reach though. No major weather systems indicated though.
Beyond 72 hours the models indicate that high pressure is to continue in control the bulk of the South Pacific, but low pressure is to try and start getting established under New Zealand by Thursday (8/9) with near 40 kts winds actually pushing into the South PAcific by Friday. It to fade quickly but another low with 40-45 kt winds is to push over the Tasman Sea and into the greater PAcific by Sunday with fetch aimed well to the north at that time. Possible swell generation potential for Hawaii if this occurs, but that's a long shot at this early date.
Details to follow...
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table