Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 1.9 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 8.9 secs from 182 degrees. Water temp 80.2 degs (Barbers Pt), 80.1 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.1 (Lani 239).
Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 8.1 secs from 30 degrees. Water temp 79.2 degs.
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 6.1 secs from 248 degrees. Wind northwest at 14-16 kts. Water temperature 68.9 degs, 68.5 (Topanga 103), 61.3 degs (Long Beach 215), 67.3 (Del Mar 153), 73.6 (Torrey Pines Outer 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.7 ft @ 13.1 secs from 210 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.2 secs from 204 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.0 secs from 198 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.7 ft @ 13.5 secs from 199 degrees. Water temp 70.9 degs.
Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.7 ft @ 10.0 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 9.9 secs from 299 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was south at 6 kts. Water temp 57.2 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 56.5 (Pt Reyes 46013), 57.9 (46026), 60.1 (SF Bar 142), 61.7 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 61.2 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (8/6) North and Central CA had set waves at waist to maybe chest high and a bit warbled but fairly lined up with light winds early and crumbled. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and and weak but lined up and clean early. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to waist high on the sets and lined up but weak and soft and clean when it came. In Southern California/Ventura waves were knee high and warbled and soft and not really rideable though local wind was calm. Central Orange County had sets at waist high and somewhat lined up but broken up by cross bump and reasonably clean but with a light northwest flow setting up early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist to maybe shoulder high and weak and soft but fairly clean early. North San Diego had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and lined up but soft and fairly clean early. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had some thigh to nearly waist high sets and clean and somewhat lined up when they came but soft. The East Shore had windswell with waves thigh to waist high and somewhat warbled from light southeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (8/6) no swell was hitting California or Hawaii. A small gale developed over the Central South Pacific tracking east Wed-Thurs (8/4) producing 34 ft seas over a small area aimed northeast and continued over the Southeast Pacific Fri (8/5) with 26 ft seas aimed north. Small weak swell is propagating northeast. Otherwise no swell producing weather system are forecast.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (8/6) no swell of interest was in the water and no swell producing weather systems have occurred.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are occurring or forecast.

Sun (8/7) northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA early and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay for Central CA. No change in the afternoon but winds building to near 20 kts south of Monterey Bay. No windswell production is forecast.
Mon (8/8) northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North and Central CA early but northwest 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. No change in the afternoon but winds building to near 20 kts south of Monterey Bay. No windswell production forecast.
Tues (8/9) weak low pressure sets up off North CA with northwest winds forecast at 5 kts for North and Central CA early but northwest 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. No change in the afternoon. No windswell production forecast.
Wed (8/10) low pressure dissolves with northwest winds 5 kts for North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA but up to 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. More of the same in the afternoon but with northwest winds building to near 15 kts for Bodega Bay.
Thurs (8/11) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to build to 15 kts solid for all of North and Central CA. No real windswell forecast.
Fri (8/12) northwest winds are forecast holding at 15 kts for all of North and Central CA early. More of the same in the afternoon. No real windswell forecast.
Sat (8/13) no change is forecast with northwest winds 15 kts for North and Central CA early. No windswell development forecast.

Freezing level for the Tioga Pass Road is 14,000+ ft today and unchanged for the foreseeable future. A summertime pattern is in effect.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (8/6) the influential southern branch of the jetstream was ridging south over the Central South Pacific pushing well over Antarctic Ice and continuing that way over the Southeast Pacific offering no support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the ridge is to slowly moderate but be replaced with a zonal flow with the jet running west to east on the 60S latitude line and just north of the Antarctic Ice line but with no troughs forecast offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours more of the same is forecast until Sat (8/13) when a trough is forecast starting to develop south of New Zealand with 130 kts winds lifting northeast to 53S perhaps offering support for gale development. But that is still a long ways out so confidence is low in that outcome at this early date.

Surface Analysis
No swell is in the water or forecast to arrive in the next 72 hours.

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale previously southeast of New Zealand is propagating northeast (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

Central South Pacific Gale
On Wed AM (8/3) a tiny gale developed just southwest of New Zealand with 50 kt southwest winds and seas building to 28 ft over a tiny area at 53.5S 179E aimed northeast. Fetch tracked east-northeast in the evening at 45-50 kts over a tiny area aimed more northeast with seas 34 ft seas at 50.75S 169W aimed northeast but only over a tiny area. On Thurs AM (8/4) south winds were at 45 kts over the Central South Pacific with seas 29 ft at 49S 157W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading in size but from 40-45 kts over the northern reaches of the Southeast Pacific aimed well north with seas 29 ft at 47.25S 147W. On Fri AM (8/5) fetch was holding at 35-40 kts over a decent sized area aimed due north with seas 27 ft at 44S 140.75W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds were fading from 35 kts aimed north over the Southeast Pacific with 28 ft seas at 47S 133.25W aimed north. On Sat (8/6) fetch was dissipating from 30 kts aimed north with seas 25 ft at 44.25S 126W aimed north-northeast. The gale is to be gone after that.

Some odds of swell resulting if all occurs as forecast mainly focused on California and points south of there. .

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Wed (8/10) building to 0.8 ft @ 17 secs later (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (8/11) from 0.8 ft @ 15-16 secs early (1.0-1.5 ft). Nothing left after that. Swell Direction 175-180 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (8/12) building to 1.5 ft @ 17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Sat (8/13) to 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell fading some on Sun (8/14) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (8/15) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (8/12) building to 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell building on Sat (8/13) to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft) and 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell fading some on Sun (8/14) from 1.9 ft @ 15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (8/15) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 194 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours no clearly defined swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Upwelling Phase Beginning
Models Suggesting this to be the Final La Nina Surge
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but is stating to rebuild in late July. A Kelvin Wave traversed the equatorial Pacific May-June, but was discharged by late July. The SOI appears to be past its peak. La Nina conditions are projected weakly returning in Nino3.4 in Fall then fading in Winter. Overall cool water volume over the entire equatorial Pacific is to be fading steadily from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/5) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and modest to moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (8/6) Modest east anomalies were over the KWGA today. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies continuing at modest strength over the KWGA holding through the end of the model run on 8/13. This is an upgrade.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (8/5) A weak Active MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates the Active MJO signal is to build to moderate strength on day 5 of the model run then holding steady through days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the Active signal dissipating on day 5 of the model run then turning weakly Inactive on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The 2 models are on opposite ends of the spectrum.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/6) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over maritime Continent and is to move to the West Pacific on day 15 of the model run and still weak. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase racing east and over Africa on day 15 of the model run and very weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (8/6) A modest Active MJO signal (wet air) was over the West Pacific/KWGA tracking east. The forecast depicts the Active Phase of the MJO (wet air) is to be pushing east over the KWGA through 8/21 then tracking east over the Central Pacific and dissolving over the East Pacific by 8/31. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building over the KWGA starting 8/31 and filling the KWGA while building over the Central Equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run on 8/15.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/5) A weak Active MJO was building over the KWGA today but with modest east anomalies over the KWGA. Looking forward the Active Phase is forecast traversing the KWGA through 8/15 but with weak east anomalies trying to hold over the KWGA. East anomalies are to start building on 8/17 with the Inactive Phase of the MJO traversing the KWGA 8/20 through the end of the model run on 9/2. East anomalies are to build to near strong status during that window.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/6) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak Inactive Phase was over the KWGA with light east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase is to hold over the KWGA through 8/10. On 8/7 a weak pulse of the Active Phase of the MJO is to start building over the KWGA traversing it through 8/23 with weak west anomalies building and filling the KWGA. A stronger pulse of the Inactive Phase is to set up in the KWGA 8/23-9/12 with east anomalies retaking control of the KWGA and pretty strong just east of the dateline the last 7 days of that window. On 9/3 a coherent Active Phase of the MJO is to start building pushing through the KWGA through the end of the model run 11/3 with west anomalies strong over the Maritime Continent reaching east to about 150E on 9/25 then pushing almost fully east through the KWGA after that and holding through the end of the model run. East anomalies are to slowly giving way and less coherent over the KWGA by 10/16. This is an interesting development. It seems east anomalies are to become less locked and strong even over the dateline as we get deeper into October. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered at 150W with its western perimeter at 165E today. A second contour is to redevelop on 8/22 with the western edge of the high pressure bias retrograding west to 145E at 10/17 then possibly starting to east east some. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 115E with it's leading edge at 135E today filling 10% of the KWGA but is forecast retrograding to 125E on 10/1 then starting to east east slightly at the end of the model run. A second contour line is to appear on 8/8. Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31. But east anomalies have now recentered themselves at 170W (previously on the dateline) but are to continue to have some solid influence over the KWGA for the foreseeable future.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/6) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 179E. The 26 degree isotherm was building east to 142W after backtracking to 159W from 148W and previously from 142W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific but pretty shallow in the far East. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east to 161W, A pocket of cool anomalies were developing down to -2 degs C at 125W and filling the area from 155W to 105W at depth. The remnants of a previous Kevin Wave were at +1 degs in the East Pacific off Ecuador starting at 126W and slowly losing coverage while pushing east and erupting to the surface. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/1 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 170W and far warmer. A cool pocket was between 110W to 170W and reaching the surface. The faint fading remnants of a previous Kelvin Wave were fading fast between 100-90W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/1) Sea heights were falling over the Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator west of the dateline reaching east to only 165E. A building pocket of negative anomalies were developing at -15 cms between 115W to 175W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram the Kelvin Wave was gone. Cool anomalies were positioned between 115W to 170W but no longer expanding coverage. A tiny area of cool anomalies were just along Ecuador but almost warming at 110W. A cool cycle is underway.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/5) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. The coolest waters were on the equator west of 135W but were now starting to build east reaching to 105 in pockets. An area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 110W and in pockets west of there. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 145W. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/5): Pockets of mostly cooling water were on the equator between Ecuador 150W, the building upwelling phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle.
Hi-res Overview: (8/5) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S with the coolest waters between 140W to 170E on the equator. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 110W reaching 3 degrees north and south of the equator. Previous equatorial warming between 110W to 140W was breaking up if not almost gone. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific and the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be rebuilding with warm water from a previous Kelvin Wave breaking up over the East equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/6) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were rising slightly at -0.954 after dipping on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/6) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps continued trending down and were at -0.602 and back in La Nina territory (falling into it starting 7/27). Temps have been falling since 7/15 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs.
Forecast (8/6) - Temps are to fade steadily in Aug to -1.00 degs then holding there before falling in Nov to -1.05 degs, then starting a quick rise and reaching above the La Nina threshold in Jan 2023 and up to +0.25 degs in April. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -0.80 in Aug and holding there to Oct, falling mid-Nov to -0.85 degs, then starting an upward progression rising above La Nina threshold in Jan and rising from there forward to +0.20 degs in April. According to this version of the model we will be try to move out of La Nina in July, only to fall back into it in Fall before finally rising out of it in late Dec. That said - the surface temp coverage model suggests a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) from here forward and the cool-down limited to the equator and only weakly. By Dec near neutral temps are to prevail over the entire equatorial Pacific and cool waters totally gone in Jan. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to be weakening starting from October and points beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.665 degs today. Temps to fall more to -0.821 in Nov then are to warm to +0.024 in March. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through Nov. then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (8/6) the daily index was falling some at +19.00 with previous peaks at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was rising some at +9.79 today after falling to +6.89 on 7/29 then peaking at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling rising some at +14.68 after falling to +13.49 (7/27) and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.