Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 12.3 secs from 181 degrees. Water temp 80.4 degs (Barbers Pt), 80.2 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.8 (Lani 239).
Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 6.5 secs from 38 degrees. Water temp 79.9 degs.
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 14.3 secs from 201 degrees. Wind north at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 69.6 degs, 68.9 (Topanga 103), 62.8 degs (Long Beach 215), 72.9 (Del Mar 153), 74.1 (Torrey Pines Outer 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.3 ft @ 7.5 secs from 313 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 15.3 secs from 202 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.9 ft @ 15.0 secs from 191 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.1 ft @ 15.0 secs from 187 degrees. Water temp 73.4 degs.
Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.1 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 5.7 ft @ 6.7 secs from 315 degrees and 1.6 ft @ 15.0 secs from 197 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 18-21 kts. Water temp 54.5 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 52.7 (Pt Reyes 46013), 55.9 (46026), 61.9 (SF Bar 142), 63.5 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 55.4 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (8/14 North and Central CA had set waves at waist to maybe chest high at top breaks and warbled and lumpy from winds just off the coast. Protected breaks had waist high sets and mushed and soft and somewhat warbled. At Santa Cruz surf was maybe waist high with luck and clean and soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were knee to thigh high and nearly chopped from northwest wind. Central Orange County had sets at waist to maybe chest high and fairly clean early but weak. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set at chest to almost head high on the peak and clean and lined up soft. North San Diego had sets at waist high and soft but clean. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets a waist high with some chest high sets and somewhat lined up and clean but soft. The East Shore had windswell with waves nearly waist high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (8/14) California was getting getting tiny swell originating from a small gale that developed over the Central South Pacific tracking east Wed-Thurs (8/4) producing 34 ft seas over a small area aimed northeast and continued over the Southeast Pacific Fri (8/5) with 26 ft seas aimed north. That swell was barely continuing in Hawaii. A broad but weak gale is developing southeast of New Zealand Sat-Sun (8/14) forecast to produce up to 33 ft seas aimed northeast. And another moderate system is to develop in the deep Central South Pacific Wed-Fri (8/19) producing up to 36 ft seas aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (8/14) no swell of interest was in the water and no swell producing weather systems have occurred.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Mon (8/15) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA and 20 kts just off the coast for Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. Windswell continues. Looks like a typical late May/early June pattern but it's August. La Nina typically delays the seasons.
Tues (8/16) northwest winds are forecast at 25 kts for North CA and 20 kts off the coast of Central CA early but 10 kts nearshore. More of the same in the afternoon up north but with nearshore winds fading to 10 kts or less for Central CA. Cleaner windswell developing for Central CA later.
Wed (8/17) the typical summertime pressure gradient is to continue with northwest winds 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and a weak eddy flow (south winds) from Bodega Bay southward early. In the afternoon the gradient is to start fading from 20 kts limited to Cape Mendocino. A light northwest if not weak eddy flow is forecast south of there. Windswell starting to fade some later.
Thurs (8/18) northwest winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino early and northwest 15 kts south of there to the Golden gate early and 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds build to 20 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. Weak junky windswell for exposed breaks.
Fri (8/19) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA. A weaker version of the same is forecast in the afternoon. Short period junk windswell at best.
Sat (8/20) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA. Winds fading in the afternoon at 15kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. No windswell forecast.
Sun (8/21) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North and Central CA early maybe pushing 15 kts mainly for Central CA later. No windswell production forecast.

Freezing level for the Tioga Pass Road is 14,000+ ft today and unchanged for the foreseeable future. A summertime pattern is in effect.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (8/14) the influential southern branch of the jetstream was tracking northeast forming a trough under New Zealand being fed by 140 kts winds offering some support for gale development. East of there the northern branch of the jet was pushing hard southeast forming a bulletproof ridge over the Southeast Pacific prevent support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the trough under New Zealand is to push eat and slowly weaken into Tues (8/16) while pinching off some offering no support for gale development with a zonal flow setting up. Beyond 72 hours starting late Wed (8/17) a new trough is forecast developing over the deep Central South Pacific being fed by a broad area of 130 kt winds lifting northeast offering good support for gale development while pushing east into late Fri (8/19) But west of there a strong ridge is forecast setting up pushing south under New Zealand on Fri (8/19) and into Antarctica then sweeping east into Sun (8/21) locking down the South Pacific and offering no support for gale development if not actively hindering it.

Surface Analysis
Small swell was hitting the US West Coast while fading in Hawaii from a gale previously southeast of New Zealand (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours small swell is to be radiating north towards Southern CA from a gale previously in the far Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Also a gale started developing south of New Zealand on Sat PM (8/13) with 35-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 33 ft at 57S 167E aimed northeast. On Sun AM (7/14) southwest winds were 40 kts over a decent sized area with seas 31 ft at 53S 179E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35-40 kts from the southwest lifting northeast with seas 29-30 ft at 47S 170W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (8/15) the gale is to be fading with 30-35 kt southwest winds and seas from previous fetch fading from 26 ft at 47S 154W aimed northeast. Something to monitor. Small swell is possible for Hawaii and the US West Coast.

Central South Pacific Gale
On Wed AM (8/3) a tiny gale developed just southwest of New Zealand with 50 kt southwest winds and seas building to 28 ft over a tiny area at 53.5S 179E aimed northeast. Fetch tracked east-northeast in the evening at 45-50 kts over a tiny area aimed more northeast with seas 34 ft seas at 50.75S 169W aimed northeast but only over a tiny area. On Thurs AM (8/4) south winds were at 45 kts over the Central South Pacific with seas 29 ft at 49S 157W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading in size but from 40-45 kts over the northern reaches of the Southeast Pacific aimed well north with seas 29 ft at 47.25S 147W. On Fri AM (8/5) fetch was holding at 35-40 kts over a decent sized area aimed due north with seas 27 ft at 44S 140.75W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds were fading from 35 kts aimed north over the Southeast Pacific with 28 ft seas at 47S 133.25W aimed north. On Sat (8/6) fetch was dissipating from 30 kts aimed north with seas 25 ft at 44.25S 126W aimed north-northeast. The gale is to be gone after that.

Some odds of swell is to result mainly focused on California and points south of there. .

Southern CA: Swell fading some on Sun (8/14) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (8/15) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees

North CA: Swell fading some on Sun (8/14) from 1.9 ft @ 15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (8/15) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 194 degrees

Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale developed on the very eastern edge of the the Southern CA swell window Thurs AM (8/11) producing 40 kt west winds and seas 28 ft at 49.5S 132W aimed east. In the evening a new fetch of 45-50 kt southwest winds developed in the same area tracking east with seas 30 ft at 47S 119W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (8/12) fetch was well east of the Southern CA swell window with seas from previous fetch 28-30 ft on the eastern edge of the Southern CA swell window at 48S 118W aimed northeast. Low odds of small swell radiating north into Southern CA.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (8/18) building to 1.0 ft @ 16-17 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building more on Fri (8/19) to 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (8/20) from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 180-185 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast. But a weak early season low pressure system is modeled developing the the Gulf of Alaska Mon-Tues (8/16) with west winds to 25 kts targeting the Pacific Northwest. Maybe some windswell to result with a lot of luck.

And reinforcing low pressure is to build over the North Dateline area Thurs-Fri (8/19) with 35 kt west winds with 20 ft seas aimed east. Will believe it when it happens. Something to monitor.

Beyond 72 hours a gale is to be building off the northern edge of Antarctic Ice over the Central South Pacific on Wed PM (8/17) with a broad area of 45 kt southwest winds pushing off the ice shelf and seas building from 31 ft at 58.25S 158.75W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (8/18) a broad fetch of 40-45 kt southwest winds are forecast north of the ice line with seas building from 35 ft at 56.5S 148.5W aimed northeast. In the evening a broad area of 40+ kt southwest winds are to be moving over the Southeast Pacific aimed well northeast with seas 36 ft at 52.75S 138.25W aimed northeast. Fetch is to be fading Fri AM (8/19) over the Southeast Pacific at 35-40 kts aimed well north with seas 33 ft at 52.25S 126.5W. In the evening fetch is to be fading in coverage from the south at 35-40 kts with seas 33 ft at 51.25S 125.25W. On Sat AM (8/20) fetch is to be fading from 35-40 kts on the edge of the CA swell window aimed north with seas 29-30 ft at 51.5S 125.75W aimed northeast. The gale is to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

Upwelling Phase Underway
Models Suggesting this to be the Final La Nina Surge
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but is stating to rebuild in late July. A Kelvin Wave traversed the equatorial Pacific May-June, but was discharged by late July. The SOI appears to be past its peak. La Nina conditions are projected reinforcing in Nino3.4 in Fall then fading by Winter turning neutral. Overall cool water volume over the entire equatorial Pacific is to be fading steadily from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/13) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (8/14) Modest east anomalies were over the KWGA today. The 7 day forecast calls for modest east anomalies continuing filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 8/21 with the strongest east anomalies migrating from the focused over the dateline to the far West KWGA.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (8/13) A very weak Inactive MJO signal was indicated today over the West KWGA. The statistical model indicates no change for the next 15 days. The dynamic model suggests the weak Inactive signal building to moderate strength on days 10-15 of the model run. The 2 models are a slightly out of sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/14) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was very weak over Indian Ocean and is to move east to the Maritime Continent 15 days out and weaker still. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase backtracking then racing east and over the East Indian Ocean and modest in strength on day 15 of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (8/14) A modest Active MJO signal (wet air) was trying to push east into the West Pacific/KWGA. The forecast depicts a moderate Active Phase of the MJO (wet air) is to be pushing east centered a bit north of the KWGA tracking over the Central Pacific and into Central America on 9/18. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building over the KWGA starting 9/13 tracking to the Central Equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run on 9/23.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/13) A weak Active MJO was over the KWGA today and starting to interact with a Equatorial Rossby Wave producing stray pockets of west anomalies over the West KWGA with east anomalies holding over the dateline (West KWGA). Looking forward the Active Phase is forecast traversing the KWGA through 8/21 as the Rossby Wave does the same producing a few pockets of westerly anomalies in the KWGA, then fading. East anomalies are to start building in earnest on 8/23 with the Inactive Phase of the MJO building over the KWGA on 8/30. East anomalies are to build to strong status by 9/3 and holding through the end of the model run on 9/10 as the Inactive Phase peaks in the core of the KWGA.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/14) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak pulse of the Active Phase of the MJO was near peaking over the west KWGA with intermixed pockets of west and east anomalies over the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active Phase is to traverse the KWGA through 8/23 with weak west anomalies continuing in pockets over the KWGA. A stronger pulse of the Inactive Phase is to set up in the KWGA 8/21-9/22 with east anomalies retaking control of the KWGA and strong just east of the dateline the last 7 days of that window. On 9/10 a coherent Active Phase of the MJO is to start pushing through the KWGA exiting at the end of the model run on 11/11 with west anomalies strong over the Maritime Continent bleeding east to about 150E starting 9/23 holding, then then pushing east while weakening with west and neutral anomalies filling the KWGA from 10/17 and beyond. East anomalies are to slowly give way and dissolve over the vast majority of the equatorial Pacific by 10/25. This is an interesting development. It seems east anomalies are to become less locked and strong even over the dateline as we get deeper into October. A weak Inactive MJO is to follow moving over the KWGA on 11/2 but insignificant and not making any real eastward progress. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 165E today. A second contour is to redevelop on 8/12 with the western edge of the high pressure bias retrograding west to 145E at 9/20 then possibly starting to east east from there. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 115E with it's leading edge at 135E today filling 10% of the KWGA but is forecast retrograding to 125E on 9/20 then starting to east east slightly at the end of the model run. A second contour line is to appear on 8/12. Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31. But east anomalies have now recentered themselves at 170W (previously on the dateline) and are to continue to have some solid influence over the KWGA into early Oct, then fading.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/14) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 180E. The 26 degree isotherm was retrograding to 146W from 142W. The 24 deg isotherm was backtracking from 105W now reaching the surface at 125W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +1 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east to 155W, A pocket of cool anomalies at -3 degs C were centered at 125W and filling the area from 150W and points east of there. The remnants of a previous Kevin Wave were at +1 degs in the East Pacific off Ecuador starting at 120W and slowly losing coverage while pushing east and erupting to the surface. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/6 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 160W and far warmer. A cool pocket was filling the area east of 160W and reaching the surface. The faint fading remnants of a previous Kelvin Wave were all but gone in the east at the surface only. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/6) Sea heights were falling over the Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator west of the dateline reaching east to only 165E. A pocket of negative anomalies were building in coverage between ecuador and 160W with 2 cores at barely -15 cms at 140W and 120W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram the Kelvin Wave was gone. Cool anomalies were positioned between 110W to 166W but no longer expanding coverage and if anything moving east. A cool cycle is underway. Hopefully it is only a single pulse similar to the last on in March and not a triple pulse like last year at this time. If a second pulse develops, La Nina will last through the Winter and the models will all be wrong.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/13) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. The coolest water was on the equator between 130W-140W but winds just slightly weaker cooling from there and points west to 160E. An area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 120W and in pockets west of there. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 145W. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/13): Pockets of cooling and warming water were on the equator between Ecuador to 120W with 2 solid cooling pockets at 125W and 140W. Cooling has the edge today.
Hi-res Overview: (8/13) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S with the coolest waters between 120W to 180W on the equator. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 110W reaching 3 degrees north and south of the equator. Previous equatorial warming between 110W to 140W was all but gone. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific and the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be rebuilding with warm water from a previous Kelvin Wave breaking up over the East equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/14) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were rebounding slightly at -1.173 degs and have been in the -1.0 range the past 2 weeks. Temp were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/14) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps are falling hard at -0.799. Temps fell into La Nina territory on 7/27. Temps have been falling since 7/15 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.0 degs in Aug.
Forecast (8/14) - Temps are to holding at -1.0 degs before falling in Nov to -1.2 degs then starting a quick rise and reaching above the La Nina threshold in Jan 2023 and up to +0.40 degs in May. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps rising some through Oct to -0.80 degs, falling back to -1.0 degs in Nov, then starting a steady upward climb rising above La Nina threshold in Jan and rising from there forward to +0.35 degs in April/May. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec. That said - the surface temp coverage model suggests a temps holding steady through Oct. then a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) to begin. By Dec a clear discharge of La Nina is to be nearly complete with near neutral temps prevailing over the entire equatorial Pacific and turning fully neutral in Jan and beyond into Feb. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to be weakening starting from Nov and beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.665 degs today. Temps to fall more to -0.821 in Nov then are to warm to +0.024 in March. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through Nov. then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (8/14) the Daily Index was rising at +13.23. Previous peaks were at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive but starting in July weakness is starting to take hold. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was rising from 10.01 after falling to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising slightly at +13.00 after falling to +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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