On Thursday (9/28) Northern CA surf was waist to chest high and quite foggy but clean. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were up to chest high with head high sets. Central California surf was waist to chest high. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were waist to chest high. The LA Area southward to Orange County was waist to chest high with a few bigger sets at the best breaks. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were chest high with occasional head high sets. The North Shore of Oahu was chest high. The South Shore was waist high. The East Shore was thigh high.
Southwest swell is actually doing pretty good today in California, better than forecast at some spots at some times. But this is the peak, and a slow downward trend is expected from Friday onward. Hawaii was getting a bit of energy on the North Shore from the first of 2 gales, with more expected directly behind. The South Pacific is dormant though the models suggest some activity a week out, but that seems optimistic. The North Pacific produced a moderate but small gale over the dateline which has produced small swell pushing towards the Islands and California. Further out more of the same is forecast, but nothing of any particular interest from a Winter time perspective yet. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Thursdays jetstream charts (9/28) indicated a trough just east of the dateline with 130 kt winds flowing under it, but pinched and getting ready to collapse. A big ridge was pushing into North America with another trough getting ready to push off Siberia. Nothing interesting yet. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough is to fade out with a zonal/flat flow setting up pushing off the Kuril Islands tracking unri.cgied up to the Pacific Northwest. No clear sings of support for surface level gale development. Beyond that the jet is to develop another trough near the dateline next Wednesday, but not pronounced. And there's some hints of a .cgiit in the jet over Siberia at the same time, which could be problematic further out. Regardless, no signs of strong gale development at the surface.
At the surface today high pressure at 1028 mbs was over the dateline and south of the Aleutians, clocking the Aleutian Storm Corridor. Weak residuals of the Nagi low were in the Gulf and fading fast while a new low was trying to organize over the Kuril Islands. Otherwise no windswell producing fetch was present (including windswell) aimed at Hawaii or California. Over the next 72 hours through Sunday (10/1) the Kuril low to track fast to the northeast with 30-35 kts northwest winds getting little traction on the oceans surface before moving into the Bering Sea and fetch becoming obscured. 19 ft seas forecast. Still some fetch to hang just south of the Aleutians near the dateline, but not much. No notable trade wind or gradient winds over Hawaii or California either, resulting in locally calm conditions.
On Sunday (9/24) a broad but weak low pressure system tried to organize just east of the dateline and well south of the Aleutians at 996 mbs. A small fetch of 30 kts northwest winds were in it's southwestern sector aimed a bit east of Hawaii and too far away from California to be of use. By Sunday evening this low dropped to 992 mbs with a better fetch of 30-35 kt north winds and up to 19 ft seas targeting Hawaii. Monday the low held with up to 40 kt winds over a tiny area still targeting Hawaii from the Gulf of Alaska. A brief fetch of 35-40 kt winds also targeted California into early Tuesday with 19 ft seas developing right before the low dissipated in the Gulf.
Limited swell to also push into North California late Friday (9/29) peaking early Saturday with swell 2.9 ft @ 11 secs (3 ft faces) from 295 degrees.
Extratropical Typhoon Nagi
The extratropical remnants of Typhoon Nagi tracked east off Japan late Sunday (9/24) with a tiny area of 40-45 kts west winds developing in the lows south quadrant targeting Hawaii as it merged with a small cold core low tracking east off the Kuril Islands. On Monday (9/25) AM the tiny fetch at 40-45 kts continued while lifting northeast, still well west of the dateline but was tracking northeast too fast to get any real traction on the oceans surface. In the evening that tiny fetch built to 50 kts pushing up to the dateline at 47N 177E aimed well north of any path to Hawaii and targeting California up the 303 great circle. By Tuesday AM pressure dropped to 980 mbs as the low moved over the dateline with wrap around fetch from the storm north quadrant moving into the west quadrant and targeting Hawaii from 50N 175E up the 331 great circle path and 40 kts winds in the south quadrant targeting California like before. Seas were finally building from 23 ft. In the evening a broader area of 40 kts winds to continue to be aimed at both Hawaii and California, but broader is a relative term with the total fetch still being small. Seas building to 23 ft aimed at Hawaii and 28 ft aimed at California from 46N 180W. The fetch to push east into Wednesday AM (9/27) with winds fading from 35-40 kts and over a shrinking area just east of the dateline. Seas building to 30 ft at 45N 175W focused mainly on California. By evening this system to be gone with 25 ft seas from previous days fetch starting to decay while pushing southeast. In total this to be a small storm with most fetch aimed east, but since it is closer to Hawaii, swell decay will have less effect and decent rideable surf should hit the Islands. Conversely California will be 2600 nmiles away from this storm, so swell decay will take it's toll resulting in smaller but longer period swell.
Current forecast data suggest some decent rideable swell pushing into Hawaii late Friday (9/29) peaking early Saturday with swell 4.7 ft @ 13 secs (5-6 ft faces). Dribbles into exposed breaks in North California late Sunday (10/1) with swell 3.7 ft @ 14 secs (4-5 ft faces). Will post more accurate data once confirmed seas heights are obtained.
Typhoon Xangsane was positioned just west of the Philippines and expected to track west into Vietnam over the weekend. No swell generation potential for Hawaii or the US mainland.
No other tropical systems of interest were being monitored.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Thursday (9/28) a weak pressure pattern was preset off the coast with light winds in control (less than 15 kts). No change forecast through Thursday (10/5). Generally clean conditions to prevail in North, Central and South CA.
On Thursday (9/28) a ridge in the southern branch of the jetstream was pushing to the south under New Zealand tracking just barely over the the Ross Ice Shelf with a second ridge over the Southeast Pacific tracking over Antarctica proper. No significant change is forecast over the next 72 hours. Beyond 72 hours the models suggest a modest drift northwards for the southern branch perhaps providing an environment more favorable for surface level gale development late Tuesday (10/3) with even 140 kts winds pushing north into the trough. But that to be short lived with energy levels dropping fast thereafter, though the trough to persist in some form. Better chance for surface level gale development but far from guaranteed.
At the surface nothing of interest was occurring and nothing of interest was forecast over the next 72 hours.
Assorted Activity Under New Zealand
On Thursday (9/14) a gale was under New Zealand with winds confirmed at 40-45 kts but only covering a small area and aimed all due east, well beyond any path heading north to Hawaii and way too far away to have any impact on California. It was gone on Friday but not before producing 6 hours of 37 ft seas under New Zealand, then rapidly fading. A second gale followed right behind on Saturday but it moved over the southern tip of New Zealand breaking the fetch up. 38 ft seas pushed under the southern Tasman Sea, but were gone before ever pushing into exposed waters of the South Pacific. This system to produce some energy into California starting late Sunday (9/24) peaking Tues/Wed with swell 3 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.5 ft faces - up to 5.5 ft faces at top breaks) decaying through Friday.
One Last Fetch
On Sunday a gale was passing under New Zealand with winds to 40 kts by the evening push steadily to the northeast through Monday (9/18), then eventually reorganized east of New Zealand on Tuesday into a closed isobar low, but faded before any winds of interest develop. Seas were modeled at 30 ft Monday AM at 50S 175E pushing east reaching 31 ft Monday night at 48S 170W then fading from 30 ft Tuesday AM at 50S 160W. Swell to be mixed with the results from the gale documented above.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours the models suggest low pressure to remain isolated to the Bering Sea through Tuesday (10/3). A second batch of fetch is to drop out of the Bering and over the dateline with 35-40 kts winds blowing out of the northwest on Mon (10/2) holding for 24 hours then fading. 20 ft seas to result targeting Hawaii and California, but well decayed upon arrival. By late in the week a preponderance of small lows are to start materializing. None is to be a swell producer in it's own right, but this definitely signals the demise of high pressure in the North Pacific and possible suggests a more active period begining, though that's quite a reach at this point.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing storms or gales forecast.
Details to follow...
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table