New Swell Classification Guidelines (Winter)
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead). Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft) Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs. Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
On Sunday (10/11) North and Central California had no surf and no wind. Really quite flat for the time of year. Southern California was flat and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was getting better northwest windswell from a gale in the Western Gulf at head high to maybe 1 ft overhead and trades a bit more northerly than normal. The East Shore had wrap around northwest swell from the Western Gulf too at head high on the sets at top spots with onshore winds. The South Shore was flat and offshore.
The forecast for North and Central CA is for actual semi real swell arriving overnight Sunday with 2 ft overhead northwest swell on Monday with some period, but south winds in effect and getting worse. Maybe a little better windwise down towards Pt Conception. Then the full-on wind and rain machine starts early Tuesday peaking for the evening commute, fading on Wednesday as new swell starts to move in. Southern California is to maybe see a small portion of that northwest Gulf swell later in the day Monday, but that is far from guaranteed. Better odds for Tuesday with waves thigh to maybe waist high at top exposed breaks, but south winds to be in effect and possibly rain too. Better odds for swell from a local gale on late Wednesday into Thursday at shoulder high with south wind gone by early Thursday. More swell possible for the weekend. The North Shore of Hawaii is to see more swell from the Western Gulf on Monday at 1 ft overhead slowly settling down Tuesday and Wednesday. But a little energy from Melor when it was off Japan is forecast arriving Tuesday at head high and with more period and up a little more on Wednesday holding into Thursday, then fading slowly down form there . The East Shore is out of the picture. The South Shore is to go back into hibernation for the workweek. But by the weekend... well let's just say there will be rideable surf.
Longterm the Active Phase of the MJO is taking control, with the Inactive Phase all but gone. A gale that was on the leading edge of a weather pattern associated with the leading edge of the Active Phase of the MJO developed in the Western Gulf on Thurs/Fri (10/9) generating some limited swell expected in for Central CA up into the Pacific Northwest for Monday. And swell for the extratropical remnants of Melor are expected for Hawaii by Tues/Wed (10/14). And remnants of Melor are to weakly reorganize off the US West Coast Mon/Tues setting up swell for Wed/Thurs there. And follow-on energy is expected for the same area Wed/Thurs providing possible swell for late week into the weekend. First up is a gale scheduled for in the Western Gulf Thurs/Fri generating 16 ft seas off it's back-end providing more windswell for Hawaii into early next week. And maybe another weak system is forecast for the Western Gulf next weekend, providing hope for both HAwaii and CA. But overall, nothing with seas greater than 20 ft is forecast, so it's all kinda just looking like rideable surf, but nothing more. Interestingly, the southern hemi has not given up the ghost, producing a solid system with 38 ft seas on Saturday aimed well towards Hawaii and the US West Coast (unshadowed). Quite rideable southern hemi swell is expected for Hawaii by the weekend and California early the week beyond.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Sunday (10/11) the North Pacific jetstream was reasonably energetic with 170 kt winds over a broad swath pushing off Japan and tracking across the Pacific intact into Baja, but ridging somewhat north over the dateline before dropping into an almost trough in the Central Gulf. No real support for gale development yet. Over the next 72 hrs that trough is to get a little better organized, but nothing much with a decent pocket of 160 kts winds pushing through the Eastern Gulf Monday then tracking into Central CA on late Tuesday (10/13). Reasonable support for weak gale development then. A healthy flow of 130 kts winds is to be extending from Japan the whole way into the US aligned on the 40N latitude then. Pretty nice. Beyond 72 hours a new trough is to form north of Hawaii on Wed (10/14) offering some support for gale development and slowly easing east through Thursday before moving just off the Central CA coast, fading and lifting northeast into the early weekend. Another moderate trough is forecast for the dateline late in the weekend with 130 kts winds pushing east. Certainly the machine is consistent now that the Inactive Phase of the MJO is out of the picture.
At the surface on Sunday (10/11) weak high pressure at 1020 mbs was just northwest of HAwaii holding the gale track clear of the Islands and turning trades a but to the northeast. A weak gale was trying to get organized in the Western Gulf, the remnants of Extratropical Storm Melor, but only a tiny patch of 30 kt winds were modeled aimed towards the US West Coast. No other weather systems of interest were occurring. 11 sec period swell from a previous gale over the Western Gulf that generated northwest winds at 25-30 kts and 17 ft seas targeting Hawaii almost directly was hitting the Islands, expected to slowly settle down over the next few days. A gale formed on the leading edge of trough of low pressure in the Western Gulf on Thurs/Fri (10/9) generating confirmed west winds at 45-50 kts Thurs near 40N 159-165W resulting in 24 ft seas there. Small swell from this system is pushing towards the US West Coast, hitting buoy 46006 on Sat PM with pure swell 9.0-9.5 ft @ 13 secs for 7 hours till 5 AM Sun (10/11). Swell is expected into Central CA for Monday AM (10/12) at 5.5 ft @ 13 secs (7 ft faces) from 288 degrees holding into the late afternoon. No difference, south winds to be in effect from an approaching front. Over the next 72 hours the remnants of extratropical gale Melor are to try and reorganize in the Eastern Gulf, with 30 kt northwest winds and 18 ft seas forecast Sun PM (10/11) at 44N 155W fading to the 25-30 kts range Monday while sinking southeast though still producing 18-19 ft seas, then theoretically reorganizing directly off Central CA Tuesday AM with pressure 980 mbs and 30 kt west winds at 35N 138W pushing into the coast through the evening with a secondary gale forming behind it (see longterm forecast for more details on it). 19-20 ft seas are forecast moving from 38N 145W to 34N 138W on Tuesday. Central CA to see possible swell of 7 ft @ 11-12 secs (8 ft faces) on late Wed into Thurs (10/15) from 280 degrees. Local weather to be an issue though.
Extratropical Storm Melor
The remnants of Typhoon Melor started tracking east off northern Japan on Friday AM (10/9) with 55 kt winds at 42N 150E aimed generally east up the 304 degree path to NCal and 305 degree path to Hawaii. 30 ft seas were modeled at 42N 153E. In the evening winds were down to the 40-45 kts range at 42N 158W generating 35 ft seas at 43N 159E. These are to be on the 302 degree path to NCal and 2900 nmiles away and the 310 degree path to Hawaii and 2500 nmiles away. By Sat AM (10/10) winds to be down to 35 kts at 43N 165E with seas fading from 30 ft at 43N 165E, not even reaching the dateline. This one was gone after that with only 25 ft seas left Sat PM at 43N 170E. Some degree of fun sized 15-16 sec period swell is likely for the Hawaiian Islands on Tues (10/13) with less for the US Mainland on Thurs (10/15).
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival starting Tuesday (10/13) pushing 3 ft @ 17 secs late (5 ft faces) building to 5 ft @ 14-15 secs mid Wednesday (7 ft faces). Swell fading from 4.5 ft @ 12 secs (5.5 ft faces) on Thurs (10/15). Swell Direction: 305-312 degrees.
Central CA: Expect swell arrival Thurs (10/15) reaching 2 ft @ 16-17 secs late (3.0-3.5 ft faces). Very inconsistent if even noticeable. Swell to push to 3 ft @ 15 secs (4.5 ft faces) on Fri (10/16) then fading from there. Swell Direction 302-305 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Nearshore Forecast
On Sunday (10/11) high pressure was effectively out of the picture with a neutral pattern near shore and low pressure building in the southern Gulf of Alaska and pushing east. A calm wind pattern was in play nearshore. But a broad local gale is forecast building off the coast, with the front hitting Monday evening (10/12) and south winds 10 kts building through the day from near Pismo Beach northward, with rain hitting late afternoon and south winds in control at 20 kts or more late evening down to Pt Conception. Rain moves in Tuesday AM with 25 kt south winds in effect from LA northward pushing 30 kts at Pt Conception at sunset. A real mess through Tuesday evening, finally relenting through the day Wednesday (10/14) but south winds still in effect over the entire state. Weak high pressure to try and get a foothold from Central CA southward on Thursday but light south winds still in effect. Finally on Friday things to calm down with north winds even over the Channel Islands at 15 kts. More of the same expected into next weekend. .
The Inactive Phase of the MJO is fading fast over the Eastern Pacific with the favorable Active Phase pattern building over the West Pacific.
Tropical Storm Parma which had been inland over the Northern Philippines for a week finally moved into the South China Sea and is heading west with winds 40 kts and expected to push over North Vietnam Tuesday (10/13). No swell producing fetch is forecast in the North Pacific.
Tropical Storm Nepartak (formally TD #21) was just south of the Islands off Central Japan with winds 55 kts. It is expected to turn northeast and accelerate later in the day racing northeast with winds slowly fading, approaching the dateline on Wednesday (10/14) with winds 20 kts. This system will likely help fuel development of a swell producing system on the dateline then. Will monitor.
With the building Active Phase, we believe the odds for yet more tropical development in the West Pacific is good over then next 2+ weeks, with some perhaps having the potential to curve north and northeast while turning extratropical.
At the surface on Sunday Storm #5S continued pushing through the Southwest Pacific (see details below). Otherwise no swell producing fetch was occurring or forecast over the next 72 hours.
New Zealand Gale- Storm 5S
A gale low quickly build under New Zealand Friday AM with 45-50 kts southwest winds at 58S 165E. By late Friday (10/9) with 45-50 kt southwest winds at 59S 163E producing 30-31 ft seas at 60S 160E, barely off the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf.
By Saturday AM (10/10) 35-40 kt southwest winds were fading at 55S 178E pushing east-northeast resulting in a solid sized area of 37 ft seas at 55S 172E (from previous day fetch), then fading from 32 ft in the evening at 53S 178W. The highest seas were on the 214 degree path to SCal and partially shadowed by Tahiti and on the 213 degree path to NCal and totally unshadowed. They were on the 196 degree path to Hawaii.
A fade was occurring Sunday AM (10/11) as the fetch was fading from 40 kts at 45S 172W. 35 ft seas were modeled at 48S 175W unshadowed for NCal but shadowed for SCal on the 213 degree path. In the evening residual 40 kt winds are forecast with 35 ft seas at 45S 165W from the 209 degree path to CA and shadowed for all regions, and the 187 degree path to HI, then fading out.
No Jason-1 satellite passes occurred to verify seas heights other than one early in the systems life (Fri AM) and it was exactly in-line with the models. A good shot of moderate significant class southern hemi swell (17 secs) seems likely for Tahiti and Hawaii with decent but non-significant class size for US West Coast in the days ahead.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival early on Sat (10/17) with swell building to 3.6 ft @ 17 secs late (6.0 ft faces with top spots to 7.5-8.0 ft or more). Swell to continue on Sun (10/18) with swell 3.6 ft @ 16 secs early (5.5 ft faces with top spots to 7 ft). Swell Direction: 192-196 degrees
SCal: Expect swell arrival on Mon (10/19) with swell period 18 secs and size slowly building.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours another weak gale is to try and organize well off the Central CA coast Wed AM (10/14) with pressure 988 mbs generating a limited fetch of 30-35 kt northwest winds at 38N 150W with additional fetch behind and pushing east. In the evening 35 kt winds to continue at 40N 140W (900 nmiles off Central CA) then pushing up into the Pacific Northwest on Thursday AM. 18 ft seas forecast Wed PM at 37W 143W moving to 40N 138W Thursday AM. Very limited 11-12 sec period swell could result for Central CA late in the week if all goes as modeled (odds low).
Beyond yet another small weak gale is forecast forming over the dateline Thursday PM with 35 kt winds targeting Hawaii and locations east of there. up to 40 kt northwest winds are forecast on Friday (10/16) fading to 35 kts in the evening at 40N 167W and aimed more to the east towards the mainland. Seas building to 19 ft at that time at 40N 168W. This system is to track due east into late Saturday with 30-35 kt west winds and 19 ft seas heading apparently towards Oregon. Possible 12 secs period swell for Hawaii late Mon (10/19) and the US West coast maybe Tuesday (10/20). But that is all just a wild guess at this early date.
MJO/ENSO Update (reference): As of Sunday (10/11) the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) was in the Active Phase. The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index was retreating fast from positive territory. The Daily SOI index was at -18.70 (4 days in a row solidly negative and 16 consecutive days nearly negative/not positive) The 30 day average was down to 0.75 and the 90 average was down to -0.98. The SOI index is likely heading down for the days ahead driven by the Active Phase of the MJO.
Wind anomalies at the 850 mb level (approx 5000 ft up) as defined by models indicated a weak and fast fading area of easterly anomalies over the Eastern equatorial Pacific from just under Hawaii into Central America. This area is expected to slowly subside and be effectively gone by 10/13. The models also indicate that western anomalies associated with a building Active Phase of the MJO remained present in the Indian Ocean extending from just west of Eastern Africa over the width of the Indian Ocean and into the Western Pacific, but down yet again from the strength projected at our last update a few days ago. The Active Phase has made all the progress into the West Pacific it is going to make, not forecast to even make it to the dateline, but holding north of New Guinea through 10/13 then fading into 10/18 turning dead neutral after that through 10/28. This is typical of the models, to downplay the length of the episode, only to readjust and extend it's reign mid-way through it's lifecycle. Regardless, mid-to-late October still looks like a good window for support of North Pacific Storm development, moving slowly from the West Pacific tropics towards the Central Pacific (Hawaii and the Western Gulf of Alaska) .
Sea Surface Temp anomaly data (10/1) indicates only subtle change over the past month, with a solid area of warmer than normal water extending over the equator starting on the dateline and building east into Central/South America with temps holding at 2.0-3.0 deg C above normal in the east. This is suggestive of a weak to moderate El Nino. The expanse of the warmer waters continues to built north of the equator, solidifying it's grip up the coast of Mexico and Baja but retreating from Southern and Northern CA, and extending west almost to Hawaii then southwest to the dateline. Effectively there is a broad wide triangle of warmer than normal water extending from just south of San Diego southwest just under Hawaii and on to the intersection of the equator and the dateline, then tracking southeast on to Northern Peru. This is not historically anything exceptional, but clearly a moderate El Nino just the same. in reviewing surface water temp anomalies over the past decade and more, this is in no way similar to the monumental ENSO event of 97/98. But as previously stated, it still surpasses any event since then (over the last 12 years) in terms of either water temps or areal coverage. And the warm pool is holding if not subtly building in areal coverage, though not building in intensity. Cooler than normal waters we had been monitoring off Africa have totally faded out.
Below the surface on the equator things continue to look most positive. A steady flow of warmer than normal subsurface water continues tracking from the West Pacific (150 m below the surface) under the dateline and breaking the surface near Central America as it has for months now. The Kelvin Wave we had been tracking over the past months has finally reached Central America with the core moving into the coast. Residual 1-2 degree above water temps were fading at 110W, but most energy had moved off the charts. This Kelvin Wave was the result of a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) in the West Pacific that occurred on 7/25-8/2. We expect to see surface water temperatures jump up in early Oct off Central America, feeding the developing warm water pool there and fueling El Nino as this Kelvin wave impacts the coast. The good news is that another core of 2 deg warm water that first appeared under the dateline on 9/17 moving east to 175W by 9/22 and 172W on 9/24, has now has built to 3 degrees above normal (9/29) and still holding as of 10/11 at 170W. This is a new Kelvin Wave, one we've been looking for and is associated with a persistent weak westerly surface wind flow that had been in-place west of the dateline from 9/8-9/17. It is embedded in a continuous stream of 1+ degree warmer than normal water extending from 155E under the dateline and into the existing warm pool off Ecuador. This one is expected to reach the coast of Ecuador late December, about at the peak of whatever El Nino will be in place for this winter. So all looks good for maintaining the existing warm pool for a while if not building it. But for more than a weak El Nino to form, we need more warm water over the long haul.
On 10/1 a solid patch of westward winds were depicted in-control of the West Pacific with strong west anomalies extending to almost the dateline. This had been in-play since 9/27 and was associated with tropical systems Parma and Melor. This is good news. A full on Westerly Wind Burst was in effect. As of 10/3 fully blowing west winds were subsiding, though westerly anomalies continued reaching to the dateline. And by 10/6 just light west winds were in effect west of the dateline. But then again on 107 another group of fully blowing west winds were depicted extending all the way to the dateline, with decent force too. Anomalies were in full effect to the dateline and beyond to the east. On 10/11 light west winds were still in effect to the dateline with solid anomaliesover the dateline and to a point south of Hawaii. This remains very good news and is likely associated with the leading edge of the new Active Phase of the MJO. Of much interest were the anomalies from climatological norms, with western anomalies blowing solidly in the region west of the dateline and now solid westerly anomalies were moving into the the region east of the dateline to a point south of Hawaii. This is the first such event for this El Nino and if anything was on the upswing. For weeks now (since 9/8) a moderate westerly anomaly has been in-play from the west up to the dateline. These westerly anomalies started with Typhoon Dujuan and continued with Choi-Wan gently feeding the subsurface warm water flow. And then with Parma and Melor, that flow was enhanced. And now yet more anomalies a full Westerly Winds are occurring. At a minimum it suggests reinforcements for the developing Kelvin Wave depicted on the dateline (see above) if not causing yet another Kelvin wave to develop. And that in-turn will reinforce the Kelvin Wave impacting Central America. Not too bad. Will be interesting to see if this building westerly anomaly holds for the next week or so (into 10/15).
At this time we are saying this developing El Nino is past the critical juncture, and will survive in some fashion with effects continuing in the atmosphere until at least the Spring of next year. All data suggests this will not be a strong El Nino, more likely a weak to moderate one. NOAA's most recent update (today 10/8) forecasts the same outcome, though hints at a possible intensification (but not likely). A solid accumulation of warm water in the equatorial East Pacific is evidence in-favor of continued development. As long as there continues to be WWB's (as there obviously is), then warm water will be migrating east, and the warm water pattern will hold if not build, and the atmosphere above it will respond in kind to the change (towards El Nino). At this point there is no evidence to suggest this El Nino will stall or dissipate. The only remaining question is whether it will hold, or grow. And current data indicates that the warm pool will hold if not slowly build. And historically it is already larger and strong than any other in the past 12 years.
The next milestone we're monitoring is development of this Active Phase of the MJO occurring now (10/3). The models indicate it is moderate in strength and should hold for a few weeks. Also water temps need to hold if not build (as is happening now). Our thoughts are that El Nino might gain a little more strength, but not much, with a 2 degree water temp anomaly in the tropical East Pacific the likely outcome. Coverage is pretty solid for this event, but the lack of really high water temp anomalies will likely limit it's strength. Strong El Ninos bring lot's of bad weather to the US West Coast, along with the potential for storm and swell enhancement. A moderate El Nino provides storm and swell enhancement, a gentle but steady push/momentum in-favor of storm development rather than the manic frenzy of a strong El Nino, but without all the weather associated with a strong event. So in many ways a moderate El Nino is more favorable from a surf perspective. As of right now things remain better than anything the Pacific has seen in the past 12 years regarding anomalous sea surface temperatures, besting anything since the big El Nino of 1997. That is very good news. But the lack of anomalous water temps exceeding 3 degrees and an unremarkable SOI suggests a modest El Nino at best. Still, it should be enough to provide storm enhancement, and a better than average winter surf season for the North Pacific, and still likely better than anything in the past 10 years. Better yet, if it's not too strong (as this event appears to be) perhaps it will not degrade into La Nina the year after (which typically happens after stronger El Ninos), but hold in some mild El Nino like state for several years in a row. This would be an even better outcome.
See more details in the new El Nino update.
Beyond 72 hours the models suggest no swell producing fetch to occur.
Details to follow...
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Interview With Stormsurf: The crew at SurfScience.com worked with Stormsurf on a feature about why surfers should be able to read wave charts themselves. They are firm believers that a little learning can go a long way to help your surfing. This is a great article to help convince your friends that they can benefit from being able to read the data themsleves rather than just relying on the forecasts of others. See the full thing here: Create Your Own Surf Forecast with Stormsurf
Mavericks - Everest of the Sea & Longboard Vineyards: Come late October Sonoma County will not only welcome a new crop of world class wines, but the award winning photography of some of Action Sports best lensmen. “ Mavericks – Everest of the Seas” comes alive again just in time to set the stage for another epic Big Wave Season. Mix two of Northern California's finest institutions – big wave surfing and the wine country – and you have what promises to be an amazing weekend at the Longboard Vineyards Tasting Room in Healdsburg
October 23 – 25.
Relive heroic battles between man and wave as seen through the eyes of the cutting-edge photojournalists who risk life and limb to document the wave's intense man-against-the-sea drama and obsessive lifestyle of Maverick's elite riders. Oded Shakked, a longtime surfer who founded Longboard Vineyards, will be unveiling his latest release, The Peter Mel/Mavericks Cabernet Sauvignon. This signature wine will be blended by not only Shakked but guest vintner, Peter Mel. Mel, one of the most respected names in Big Wave Surfing is known as perhaps the most skillful surfer ever to ride Mavericks. The famed spot off the Half Moon Bay. In October of 1998 he was whipped into to what is now considered the biggest wave ever ridden… Mel along with the featured photographers, surfboard shapers and wine makers will be on hand for the Friday night reception. The reception will begin at 5pm and run until roughly 9pm.
Longboard Vineyard has always had a soft spot for surfers. It's a place where you can hangout at a redwood-surfboard bar, or sample one
of its award winning wines while kicking back on a comfortable sofa watching surf movies. For this harvest weekend event Shakked has
enlisted “Mavericks: Everest of the Seas,” the heralded collection of Mavericks surf photography from Frank Quirarte, Doug Acton, Seth
Migdail and Ed Grant.
“Everest of the Seas” first made its debut recently at the Coastal Arts League Gallery in Half Moon Bay, drawing large crowds and an
enthusiastic response. It just finished a one-month highly successful run at San Francisco's world class Museum and Gallery, SFMOMA.“Everyone who sees the exhibit is just blown away,” said Grant, the curator of the Coastal Arts League Gallery. “Both surfers and non-surfers can't help but get caught up in the energy and stoke that surrounds Maverick's, the surfers and photographers who put it on the
line every time they go out there.”
The event also represents a high point in the career of Oded Shakked, who was born in Israel and grew up near a beach just north of Tel
Aviv. Immersed in surfing from the start, he made several trips around Europe's Atlantic coast while discovering, to his delight, that “it
was easier, cheaper and safer to drink good red wine than bottled water.” His twin loves of surfing and wine brought him to California,
where he studied winemaking at UC Davis and became enamored with the people, climate and rich soil of Sonoma County. He founded Longboard Vineyards with the motto “Wine, waves and soul,” making it a highly unique fixture in wine country.
The October 23-25 weekend will also feature the sale of surfboards and memorabilia, along with Acton's acclaimed book, “Inside Maverick's.”
Admission is free. Opening reception sponsored by Maverick Events and Longboard Vineyards
The Kelly Slater Project - A fundraiser is scheduled for Aug 29th at the Cocoa Beach Country Club to help raise funds for both the Kelly Slater Project and the Central Florida Animal Reserve. A Casino night is planned including a silent auction and raffle. Sponsors are also needed. Learn more about these projects at : http://www.thekellyslaterproject.com/
Rebuild Jeff Clark: Jeff Clark the first pioneer of Mavericks, recently underwent hip resurfacing surgery due to severe pain from deterioration of his hip. Needless to say the procedure is very expensive and his insurance only covers tiny portion of the bill. If you're interested in learning about the procedure or would like to donate to help Jeff out, please take a look here: http://www.rebuildjeffclark.blogspot.com/
North California Surf Report Works Again: After an extended downtime we finally got the North California Surf Report working again. Thanks for your patience. See it here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/report/ncal.html
Shark Video: Our friend Curt Myers of Powerlines productions shot this footage of 2 great whites munching on a whale carcass off Devils Slide (south of San Francisco) on Thursday. Kind of interesting to watch. Check it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I4rZYEZMWQ (Fixed link)
Wave Model Upgrade Status Report: At this point we believe the installation of the new wave models is complete, with no problems being reported, the server stabilizing and the much requested return of the old style hemispheric Surf Height models now operational (again) and running side-by-side along the new ones. We thank you for your patience and input as we went though this process. Your feedback helps guide our efforts and ultimately results in a better product for everyone. Now we're off to start providing better menus to some wave model products most of you probably haven't uncovered yet (site specific graph and text forecasts), updateing the wave model FAQs and then upgrading the Weather Models.
New Wave Model Facts: Click HERE to read more about the new wave models. Important info.
Stormsurf Wave Models Updated: On Friday (2/6) we installed the latest upgrade to our wavemodels. A year in the works, this upgrade essentially is a total re-write of every wave model product we produce. They now take advantage of the new Version 3 of the Wavewatch wavemodel. This version runs at a much higher resolution, specifically 0.0 X 0.5 degrees for the global grib with local products at 0.1667 X 0.1667 degrees, and it uses the hi-res GFS model for wind speeds. And of even more interest, the model now identifies primary swell and windwave variables. As such we now have new model images which displays this data. Also we've included out special 3D topographic land masks into all models. In all it makes for a radical step forward in wave model technology. We'll be upgrading minor components (FAQ, new menu pages etc) for a few weeks to come, but all the basics are available for your use now. Check it out here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_wam.html
Story About Stormsurf: The folks at SurfPulse (and specifically author Mike Wallace) have written up a really nice article about Stormsurf, complete with some good pics. Learn about how we came to be and a little of where we are going. Check it out here: http://www.surfpulse.com/2009/01/visceral-surf-forecasting-with-mark-sponsler/
Stormsurf Video: Just for fun - here's a clip about Stormsurf that ran on Bay Area TV a while back. Thought you might enjoy it: http://vimeo.com/2319455
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Need Chiropractic Help? Visit our friends at Darrow Chiropractic. Not only will Dr. Darrow fix you up, he might give you some big wave surfing tips too! See more here: http://www.darrowchiropractic.com/
Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table