Sunday, October 15, 2017
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 7.7 secs with windswell 2.3 ft @ 7.9 secs from 106 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.2 ft @ 14.7 secs with south windswell 1.3 ft @ 14.1 secs from 203 degrees. Wind at the buoy was west at 4 kts. Water temperature 68.7 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 2.2 ft @ 9.8 secs from 271 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 14.7 secs from 205 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.2 ft @ 15.4 secs from 213 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.5 secs from 206 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.3 ft @ 10.8 secs with local north windswell 5.3 @ 9.8 secs from 314 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northeast at 8 kts. Water temp 53.8 degs.
46006, 46059, Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Sunday (10/15) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing waves at exposed breaks at up to maybe head high though mostly less and clean with light offshore winds. Protected breaks were waist to maybe chest high and clean. At Santa Cruz waves were thigh high on the sets and weak but clean. In Southern California up north windswell was producing waves at up to waist high high and clean but with strong offshores early. In North Orange Co rare set waves were coming from the southern hemi at waist to maybe chest high and clean with intermixed north windswell. In South Orange Co no report was available. In San Diego surf was thigh high or so and clean and weak. Hawaii's North Shore was getting wrap around windswell at chest to shoulder high and clean and looking fun. The South Shore was maybe waist high on the sets and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at 2 ft overhead and heavily chopped from strong east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Sunday (10/15) local north windswell from previous fetch was resulting in rideable surf in North and Central California. Local east windswell was producing sizeable east windswell relatively speaking over the Hawaiian Islands. A gale remains forecast to form on the dateline later Mon (10/16) with seas building from 30 ft while tracking east eventually forecast to move into the Gulf of Alaska on Wed (10/18) with up to 42 ft seas possibly generating larger swell for the US West Coast and Hawaii. another smaller system is to follow behind over the North Dateline region on Thurs-Fri (10/20) with up to 34 ft seas aimed east. Down south a gale developed in the Central South Pacific Sun-Tues (10/10) producing up to 38 ft seas over a tiny area aimed well northeast. Small southern hemi swell is pushing north towards California and points south of there. Another gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific on Sat (10/14) with 36 ft seas barely in the Southern CA swell window aimed north. And another gale is developing under under New Zealand while tracking east on Sun (10/15) with up to 40 ft seas forecast over a small area aimed east. So there's potential both north and south though the sense is that the North is getting ready to take over.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Sunday AM (10/15) the jetstream was pushing east off North Japan on the 43N latitude line with winds to 160 kts running zonally (flat) east pushing over the dateline continuing east over the Gulf of Alaska while slow loosing energy with winds down to 90 kts before pushing into Central Canada. No troughs were present to support gale development down in lower levels of the atmosphere but the jet overall was looking better than at any point previously so far this Fall. Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast but with winds energy building over the dateline Mon-Tues (10/17) to 180 kts and starting to carve out a legitimate trough while the wind pocket moves into the Western Gulf later Tuesday into Wed (10/18) providing good support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours the trough is to push inland over Washington on Thurs-Fri (10/20) with support for gale development fading. But back to the west the jet is to hold consolidated and zonal pushing off North Japan tracking the whole way into the Western Gulf of Alaska with winds 140 kts in pockets mainly from the dateline eastward. And by Fri-Sat (10/21) winds on the dateline are to build to 170 kts with a new trough starting to dig out there and moving into the Gulf by Sun (10/22) while fading. But more wind energy is to start building off Japan at the same time to 160 kts offering yet more potential longer term. Not too bad of a setup.
On Sunday (10/15) local generated north windswell was hitting North and Central CA, but on it's way down. Maybe some tiny swell from a fetch south of the Western Aleutians is radiating southeast towards Hawaii (see West Bering Sea Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing while tracking through the Gulf of Alaska (see Possible Gulf Gale below).
Possible Gulf Gale
A gale is to start developing just south of the Aleutians near the dateline starting Mon AM (10/16) producing west winds 40-45 kts and seas building from 20 ft at 48N 169E. In the evening the gale is to push to the dateline just south of the Central Aleutians with winds 45 kts from the west and seas 28 ft at 49N 177.5E. The fetch is to track east Tues AM (10/17) while increasing in areal coverage at 45 kts from the west positioned just south of the Eastern Aleutians with seas 33 ft over a small area at 50N 174W. In the evening the gale is to track east with winds still 45 kts and seas 37 ft at 48N 165W. The gale is to move over the Eastern Gulf on Wed AM (10/18) with northwest winds 45-50 kts and 41 ft seas at 47N 150W. In the evening the fetch is to fade over the Eastern Gulf with northwest winds 35-40 kts and seas 36 ft at 46N 143W. The gale is to dissipate from there with no seas greater than 26 ft forecast. Something to monitor.
No windswell relative to California is forecast.
For windswell relative to Hawaii: On Sunday (10/15) high pressure was holding in the Southern Gulf of Alaska 1100 nmiles north of Hawaii still enhancing trades over and a bit east of Hawaii at 20 kts solid from the east generating local raw east windswell pushing into exposed east shores of the Hawaiian Islands. The fetch on Monday is to become shallower extending only 400 nmiles east of the Big ISland at 20 kts with windswell size and period dropping off some. And by later Tuesday the fetch is to be limited to only the area 200 nmiles east of Hawaii and only at 15 kts. Windswell fading.
West Bering Sea Gale
A gale developed in the Western Bering Sea Wed AM (10/11) with 40 kt west winds barely extending south of the Western Aleutians generating 23 ft seas at 50N 174E aimed east. In the evening fetch increased in coverage but only at 30 kts with 28 ft seas at 52N 175E. Fetch lifted north on Thurs AM (10/12) fading in coverage from 30 kts south of the Aleutians with 25 ft seas fading at 51N 175E. Low odds of small swell radiating towards Hawaii.
Hawaii: Low odds of small background swell arriving on Sun (10/15) at 2.2 ft @ 16 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (10/16) from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest were occurring and none were forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Sunday (10/15) a modest northeast flow was in control off all California coastal nearshore waters at 10 kts. Mon-Wed (10/18) a light pressure and wind pattern is forecast for all of North and Central CA. A front is to possibly impact the Cape Mendocino coast weakly on Thurs (10/19) with light winds early turning southerly 10 kts later afternoon. Friday northwest winds are forecast at mostly 10 kts building to 15 kts later afternoon over all of North and Central CA. Saturday high pressure is to take control riding into North Ca with light winds for Cape Mendocino by north winds 20 kts from Bodega Bay to Pt Conception. That fetch is to be fading from 15 kts early Sun AM (10/22) isolated mainly to Pt Arena to Pigeon Point.
On Sunday (10/15) swell from a gale that tracked through the South Central Pacific was radiating north (see Central Pacific Gale below). Also swell from another gale in the far Southeast Pacific was radiating north towards Southern CA (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours another gale (actually a storm) developed under New Zealand starting on Sat PM (10/14) with 50 kt southwest winds and seas building from 34 ft at 54S 165E tracking due east. On Sun AM (10/15) 50-55 kt southwest winds are forecast to continue tracking east over a small area with 40 ft seas building at 56S 172E. The gale is to be fading fast in the evening with winds dropping from 40 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 37 ft at 54S 177W. The gale is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.
Central Pacific Gale
On Sun AM (10/8) a fetch of 40 kt southwest winds were getting traction on the oceans surface southeast of New Zealand with seas building from 26 ft at 58S 171W. In the evening the gale was building some with 40-45 kt south winds taking shape and seas 32 ft at 54S 157W aimed northeast. A solid area of 45-50 kt south winds developed Mon AM (10/9) with 32 ft seas at 53S 149W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch consolidated at 45 kts from the south with a tiny core of 39 ft seas at 50S 148.5W surrounded by a decent size area of 30+ ft seas aimed north. On Tues AM (10/10) south fetch was fading from 30 kts over a decent sized area aimed north with 34 ft seas fading over a small area at 45S 146W. Fetch fading from 30 kts from the south in the evening with seas fading from 28 ft at 40S 143W. Small swell is possible for Hawaii with larger size for California. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sun (10/15) building to 1.9 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell peaks Mon (10/16) mid-day at 2.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (10/17) from 1.6 ft @ 15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 180 degrees
South California: Expect swell arrival on Mon (10/16) building to 2.0 ft @ 20 secs late (4.0 ft). Swell continues up on Tues (10/17) building to 3.2 ft @ 17-18 secs later (5.5 ft with sets to 7.0 ft). Swell holding on Wed AM (10/18) at 3.3 ft @ 16 secs (5.3 ft with sets to 6.6 ft). Swell fading Thurs (10/19) from 2.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees
North California: Expect swell arrival on Mon (10/16) building to 1.6 ft @ 20 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell continues up on Tues (10/17) building to 2.6 ft @ 18 secs later (4.5 ft with sets to 6.0 ft). Swell peaking Wed AM (10/18) at 3.1 ft @ 16-17 secs early (5.1 ft with sets to 6.4 ft). Swell fading Thurs (10/19) from 2.3 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees
Southeast Pacific Gale
On Sat AM (10/14) a moderate sized gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific on the edge of the California swell window with 40-45 kt south winds and seas building from 27 ft over a moderate area at 58S 124W. In the evening 45-50 kt south winds were pushing north-northeast with 37 ft seas at 56S 117.5W aimed north and northeast. On Sun AM (10/15) fetch was fading fast from 35-40 kts moving northeast with seas fading from 36 ft at 51S 111W targeting mainly from South Mexico and points south of there. The gale is to fade and move rapidly east from there. Very south angled swell is possible for California but better focused for Mexico southward into South America.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (10/21) after dark and building Sun (10/22) up to 2.0 ft @ 18-19 secs through the day (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 178-180 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs AM (10/19) a somewhat fragmented gale is to try and develop over the Aleutians just west of the dateline producing 40-45 kts west winds and seas building from 31 ft between 165E-175E and 48N-51N in pockets. West fetch is to consolidate in the evening at 40 kts near the dateline with 30 ft seas at 48N 175E aimed east. On Fri AM (10/20) the gale is to fall southeast with northwest winds 40 kts and 34 ft seas at 47.5N 177W. In the evening fetch is to fade from 35 kts while falling southeast with 29 ft seas at 45N 170W. This system is to fade from there.
For California no local windswell production is forecast until Sat (10/21) with high pressure trying to ridge into North CA producing the usual pressure gradient south of there and north winds at 20 kts over the area from Bodega Bay south to Pt Conception. But by Sun (10/22) that is to fade.
For Hawaii starting Thursday (10/19) high pressure is to still hold north of Hawaii and start easing east some with east fetch building in coverage east of the Islands again at 15-20 kts with windswell holding size if not building some. By Fri (10/20) east winds at 15 kts are to be in control up to 1000 nmiles east of Hawaii offering decent support for generic east windswell production and continuing into Saturday. But by Sun (10/22) high pressure is to break down and the fetch and windswell are to fade out.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
More details to follow...
La Nina Pulsing Again
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration and is holding.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Sat (10/14) the 5 day average indicated east winds were over the entire equatorial Pacific and Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were mixed and light over the East Pacific but moderate east over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (10/15) Moderate east anomalies were modeled over the core of the KWGA. Moderate to strong east anomalies are forecast building just east of the KWGA by 10/17 but holding at moderate strength of less for the core of the KWGA and remaining unchanged through the end of the model run on 10/22. This is not the Inactive Phase of the MJO, but another small pulse of La Nina completely squashing the MJO. This is not conducive to storm development in the greater Pacific Basin.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: As of 10/14 a modest Active/Wet MJO pattern was moving into the far West Pacific. The statistical model depicts it holding or only slightly fading through the end of the 15 day model run. The dynamic model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO holding unchanged in the far West Pacific through the entire 2 week model run. This would be the first Active Phase of the MJO since March if it were to develop.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (10/12) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO modest in strength over the Maritime Continent and forecast building to moderate strength while tracking east, over the dateline 2 weeks out. The GEFS model suggests it building to the strong category and not making as much east headway, but still positioned well in the West Pacific 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model: (10/15) This model depicts a moderately strong Active/Wet pattern over the West Pacific and it's to track east over the equatorial Pacific and into Central America 11/9. After that a moderate solid Inactive Phase is to follow in the West on 10/30 tracking east into Central America through the end of the model run on 11/24. This model runs about 2 weeks ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (10/12) This model depicts a strong Inactive Phase of the MJO over the KWGA moving east with east anomalies over the same area. The Inactive Phase is to move east and be gone from the KWGA by 10/25, with a weak Active Phase and weak west anomalies taking over till 11/24 even though a neutral MJO pattern is expected 11/16-11/28. Then the Active Phase returns weakly on 11/29 and building from there into early Jan 2018 with modest west anomalies forecast. The low pass filter indicates a building but still weak to moderate El Nino signal is over the KWGA and is to hold for the foreseeable future. The La Nina signal has moved over the Atlantic. Interesting. If this is true, it suggests the underpinnings of La Nina are already gone and that the La Nina forecast this winter are to be short lived, or at least overhyped. Best guess is a very weak directionless and low energy weather pattern biased towards La Nina redeveloping in Fall of 2017 holding into December, then vaporizing in March with a neutral ENSO signal developing. It will take about 5+ years for the Pacific to recharge from the 2014-16 El Nino before another El Nino develops.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/15) A pattern change set up in August, with warm water retreating to the west and cooler water building in the east. Today in the far West Pacific water temps have fallen to barely 29 degs centered at 160E and shrinking in coverage. The 28 deg isotherm line is barely hanging on at 173W. The 24 deg isotherm is weak at 130W today and shallow at 60 meters deep at 140W. Anomaly wise a clear change is present in the East Pacific with warm water gone and instead neutral to weakly negative temperatures at the surface and down to -4.0 degs C down 125 meters at 140W indicative of La Nina. Warm anomalies are isolated to the West Pacific at 0.0-+1.0 degrees down to 100 meters deep with the dividing line between cool and warm retrograding further west at 170W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/10 depicts a large area of subsurface cool water filling the East Pacific and erupting to the surface in pockets between 100W to 160W with a near neutral temperature pattern in the west.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/10) Negative anomalies are in control at -5 cms over the entire equatorial Pacific with a large pocket of -10 cm anomalies present between 110W-170W but a bit more fragmented than weeks earlier. This is not good.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (10/14) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a clear cool pattern has developed. Upwelling is solid nearshore along Peru and Ecuador and tracking northwest fading in density over the Galapagos and flowing steadily west from there on the equator out to 110W then building some north and south of the equator out to 140W. Warm anomalies previously are just north of the equator from the Galapagos to 115W are collapsing.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/14): A neutral trend was along Peru. But a marked cooling trend is indicated starting over the Galapagos continuing west on the equator out to 160W. This was likely due to the eruption of the subsurface cool pool. Another pulse of La Nina is setting up.
Hi-res Overview: (10/14) A clear La Nina cool stream is present starting off Southern Chile pushing north up Peru and building in coverage, then turning northwest off Ecuador tracking west over the Galapagos then building out to 140W and stronger than 3 days ago. Weak cool anomalies continued west from there out to 165E. This pattern outlines the South Pacific high pressure system well which is assumed to be stronger than normal. It is assumed cool water at depth is erupting to the surface with the breach point near the Galapagos. There is no sign of warm anomalies in the Nino 1.2 or Nino3.4 regions. Otherwise waters of all oceans of the planet are warmer than normal other than the aforementioned stream. We now assert that climatology needs to be updated to reflect the new reality of warming ocean temperatures over the entire planet.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/15) Today's temps were rising slightly at -1.412, up from the coldest point so far this La Nina when they dipped 10/11 to -1.9 degs.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (10/15) temps were steady at -0.208, up some from when they bottomed out on 9/12 at -0.898. But the long arc still suggests a clear downward trend though things have warmed steadily over the past 3 weeks.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (10/15) The forecast has temps falling steadily from -0.2 in early Oct to -1.1 in early Dec. Then the trend is to turn upwards reaching -0.4 in April and -0.1 degs in July 2018. This suggests a legit La Nina is expected for the Winter of 2017-2018. The CFS SST images (10/13) continues to suggest a moderate La Nina cool pattern building on the equator off the Galapagos into Feb 2018. A full on La Nina is setting up.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Sept Plume updated (9/19) depicts temps forecast to fade -0.4 degs in Sept, and fading to -0.6 degs in Nov, slowly rising from there turning neutral in April 2018. See chart here - link. The NMME consensus for Sept average indicates temps -0.75 degrees below normal Nov-Jan 2018 then rebounding to normal in April. It sure looks like La Nina is on the way. The CFSv2 is the outlier, colder than all other models. Still, given all the oceanic signals, we a tending to side with it more than the other models.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (10/15): The daily index was positive at 21.72. The 30 day average was rising at 10.41. The 90 day average was steady +7.47. This suggests a turn towards La Nina.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (10/15) The index was steady at -1.58 (up from -2.20 on 6/28/17 but still suggesting a turn towards La Nina). Last years La Nina reached -1.94 on 11/2/16. We're gone deeper than that already. So the index is about as negative as it was at the peak of last years (2016) La Nina. At this time it looks like La Nina is returning for a double dip/2 year La Nina (not unusual). This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly negative, but not as much as one would expect with La Nina in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.10, Feb = +0.04, March = +0.12, April=+0.52, May=+0.30, June=+0.19, July= -0.50, Aug= -0.68, Sept = -0.28. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO discounting the recent La Nina dip. No consistently negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10, Aug=0.09, Sept = 0.32. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table