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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: October 29, 2005 5:29 AM GMT
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 3.5 - California & 2.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 10/24 thru Sun 10/30
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Utility swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of Utility swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small Gulf Storm
Gale Over the Dateline - But Nothing Noteworthy

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Thursday (10/27) Northern CA surf was head high and clean. South facing breaks were shoulder to head high. Central California surf was chest high with some bigger sets. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were waist high with chest high sets at the best breaks though most spots were thing high or less. The LA area southward into Orange County was waist high. Southward to San Diego waves were waist to chest high. The North Shore of Oahu was chest high. The South Shore was barely waist high. The East Shore was waist high.

Surf remained pretty small in all locations. In essence it was windswell pushing south from the Gulf of Alaska into California and Hawaii. Next up is a pair of gales, one off Kamchatka pushing to the dateline and another off the Pacific Northwest. The Kamchatka system offers hope for Hawaii and California while the one further east will be isolated to California and points north. See details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
On Thursday (10/27) the jetstream continued about like it was a few days ago, just weaker. It was flowing generally flat from off the Kuril Islands east to the Gulf of Alaska where a weak trough was positioned just off the Pacific Northwest. Winds at 140 kts were flowing under the trough then pushing over Northern California and weakening. No substantial change forecast until Sunday when a big ridge is to build off Siberia pushing over the dateline. But that is to be short-lived and the jet is to settle back down by Thursday (11/3) with just a mild ridge remaining over the dateline while a new weak trough develops in the Gulf and another off the Kuril's. In all, pretty uneventful.

Today at the surface weak high pressure covered the middle latitudes at 1020 mbs extending from Japan to Baja. Of more interest was a pair of low pressure systems, one off the Pacific Northwest and another over the dateline in the Bering Sea (see details below). Over the next 3 days these are to be the major players on the weather stage. The Pacific Northwest storm is to quickly move inland while the Bering Sea low is to drop into the Gulf over the weekend and regenerate.

 

Pacific Northwest Storm (updated Fri PM)
On Wednesday (10/26) a low started building in the Gulf of Alaska with pressure 992 mbs and 25-30 kt winds taking aim on California and the Pacific Northwest late. By Thursday (10/27) AM pressure dropped to 980 mbs with winds confirmed to 45-50 kts over a tiny area terminating at 48N 140W aimed right at North CA and on the very northern edge of the swell window there (315 degrees). Seas were building. This held through the evening with winds 40-45 kts terminating at 47N 135W aimed like before and seas building to 28 ft centered at 47N 135W. MPC indicated 30 ft seas had built in the evening located at 47N 138W. This system moved onshore Friday over South Canada but 40 kt winds were still confirmed at 47N 134W aimed a bit down the 315 degree path to North CA with 29 ft seas indicated by MPC at 46N 135W pushing mostly east and out of the CA swell window. This fetch averaged 731-789 nmiles from CA.

Swell from this low started to hit the North most California border around 3 PM Friday pushing into Eel River by 8 PM with seas 17-18 ft @ 16 secs and pure swell 13 ft @ 16 secs. Reasonably impressive. Swell also hit buoy 46059 at near 5 PM with seas building to 18-19 ft @ 17 secs and swell 14 ft @ 16.5 secs. Again, decent.

This system has generated swell pushing toward North California expected to arrive Saturday (10/29) at 6 AM with period 16 secs and peaking late morning at 9-10 ft @ 14-16 secs (12-14 ft), fading by late in the day. Note: This estimate might be a little bit on the high side as is based muchly on the buoys. Pure swell calculations suggest a peak more like 8-9 ft @ 14-15 secs (11-13 ft faces). Swell Direction 310-315+ degrees

 

Dateline Gale
Also on Wednesday (10/26) a 984 mb gale low pushed off Kamchatka tracking east with 40-45 kts winds developing in it's south quadrant centered at 48N 162E aimed due east. The low tracked towards the Bering Sea in the evening with winds south of the Aleutians confirmed down to 35 kts centered at 48N 172E. Seas had built to 29 ft centered at 48N 165E. By Thursday AM (10/27) it moved into the Bering Sea near the dateline with pressure 988 mbs and winds south of the Aleutians fading to 30 kts aimed due east with 27 ft seas positioned at 48N 175E continuing into the evening. Then a gradual decay is forecast Friday and Saturday as the low tracks through the Bering Sea with limited 30 kt fetch continuing south of the Aleutians pushing towards the Gulf of Alaska and seas generally in the 23 ft range.

In all the first part of this system has produced winds and seas aimed reasonably swell down the 319-328 degree great circle paths to Hawaii and up the 308 degree path to California but a long ways away. Best bets are that some decent swell is likely pushing southeast towards Hawaii with only small longer period energy pushing towards California.

Expect swell arrival in Hawaii starting Sunday (10/30) with swell 3.7 ft @ 15-16 secs late (5.0-5.5 ft faces) maxing early Monday (10/31) at 4.7 ft @ 13 secs (5.5-6.0 ft faces). Residual energy fading through the day Tuesday. Swell Direction: 319-328 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Offshore Forecast
On Thursday (10/27) the models continue to suggest that 3 low pressure systems are to o track through the Gulf over the coming week all trying to punch a hole in high pressure that is to hold tight of the California coast at 1022-1024 mbs, with none of them succeeding. That's not to say period of light drizzle won't pass over the San Francisco area, but not large scale rains system forecast. Likewise winds to remain generally light, with only one short burst of north winds forecast next Wednesday (11/2). Generally a neutral pressure pattern to prevail with no windswell producing fetch forecast over the offshore waters.

The 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.

 

South Pacific

Overview
On Thursday (10/27) no swell producing fetch suggested for the coming 72 hours.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

QuikCAST

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours on Sunday (10/30) the residuals of the dateline low (above) are to start reorganizing in the Northern Gulf of Alaska with pressure 984 mbs with winds 35 kts all aimed east into Central Canada, then building to 45-50 kts on Monday but all positioned in the gales south quadrant aimed like before. Maybe sideband energy pushing into California and the Pacific Northwest Wednesday of next week.

Yet another broad but generally weak low to follow in the Gulf with 30-35 kts fetch aimed right at North CA on Thursday (11/3) with 22 ft seas suggested. Will see what actually happens.

 

South Pacific

At the surface beyond 72 hours the models depict a moderate gale low pushing under New Zealand on Wednesday (11/2) with some fetch aimed towards Hawaii. Maybe good for some background swell for Hawaii, but that's it. Otherwise no swell producing fetch forecast.

Details to follow...


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Local Interest

Rob Gilley Photgraphy: Please take amoment to check out the selection of limited print images availabe at Rob Gilleys webite. All images in the 2005 line were taken by Rob Gilley, an 19 year Surfer Magazine staff photographer, and are personally signed and numbered by him: http://www.pacificsurfgallery.com

Tutorial on the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Presented by Dr. Roland Madden: If you're interested in El Nino and the MJO, have a basic understanding of El Nino, and you have broadband connection, audio and Macromedia Flash installed, then the following presentation is a must see. Dr Madden present a great overview of how the MJO works. And there's nothing like hearing it straight from the founders mouth. Link here: http://meted.ucar.edu/climate/mjo/mjonav0.htm

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