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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: October 28, 2009 8:28 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
Swell Potential Rating = 1.9 - California & 2.9 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 10/26 thru Sun 11/1
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

ET Lupit Winds Up Off Japan
Small Gale on the Dateline for Hawaii

 

New Swell Classification Guidelines (Winter)

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead). Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft) Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs. Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Tuesday (10/27) North and Central California was in the middle of a northwest wind event with 30-35 kt winds off the coast generating local windswell and a pure chopped out mess nearshore. Surf was head high or a few feet overhead early and coming up with horrendous conditions. Southern California was getting the same local windswell with waves chest high or so up north and waist high down south and onshore winds in control. Hawaii's North Shore had very limited northwest windswell from the dateline with waves waist to maybe chest high at top spots on the sets and clean. The East Shore had waist high locally generated east windswell and chopped. The South Shore had a few thigh to waist high sets coming from the southern hemi and clean.  

The forecast for North and Central CA is for more north winds and local windswell with chop on top, at 3 ft overhead on Wednesday and blow to bits falling to 1 ft overhead on Thursday and still pretty tattered. Waist high leftovers expected on Friday with improving conditions. Southern California is to see the same locally generated northwest windswell Wednesday at  chest high or a little more at better exposed breaks, with tolerable conditions early, dropping to waist high or so on Thursday and cleaning up early, then thigh high Friday.  The North Shore of Hawaii is to be effectively flat on Wednesday but northerly swell from just over the dateline is to arrive Thursday late at 2-3 ft overhead and possibly pushing 4 ft overhead early Friday, slowly dropping through the weekend.  The East Shore is to continue with easterly windswell at waist high through the week. The South Shore is to remain near flat through the  workweek.

Longterm the Active Phase of the MJO continues look really good and expected to continue favoring the development of gales in the North Pacific. Strong high pressure and north winds is to continue setting up windswell through Thursday in California. A gale is pushing south from the dateline a bit towards the Hawaiian Islands Tues/Wed generating 20-23 ft seas pushing some swell that way for later in the week, And the extratropical remnants of Typhoon Lupit are building off Northern Japan Tues (10/27) and expected to get rather intense while tracking northeast, but positioned a long ways away from the US Mainland but closer to Hawaii. Either way, it is to die before ever reaching the dateline.  Some degree of swell is expected radiating over much of the North Pacific with Hawaii getting the most size, though nothing extraordinary. High pressure is to take over the dateline region after that, kinda choking off the main North Pacific Storm Corridor. Down south something that almost resembles are gale remains forecast pushing under New Zealand Wed/Thurs (10/29) with decent fetch aimed northeast, but it is weaker than previous estimates and still is a day or so from forming. In all, a few things are there to monitor, but nothing too exciting. 

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
On Tuesday (10/27) the North Pacific jetstream had changed it's MO with a large steep trough over the dateline digging down to about 27N (far south) with 150 kt winds flowing down into it,  then ridging hard north over the East Pacific with 170 kt winds pushing over the Northern Gulf and down the West Coast. Only the trough held any promise for supporting gale development, and that was limited given it's pinched nature. Over the next 72 hrs that dateline trough is to track east, passing just north of Hawaii late Wednesday with the big ridge slowly trying to push inland over the US West coast, and a weak pattern forecast building behind the trough. A good chunk of energy is to be peeling off to the north, effectively splitting from the main jet off the Kuril Islands and flowing north of even the Bering Sea. The split is to hold into Friday (10/30) with a weak flat flow persisting over the greater North Pacific offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours the split flow is to settle down with a new vigorous pocket of 190 kt winds energy pushing off Japan ridging northeast to the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutians, then dropping south into the Gulf of Alaska late Monday (11/2) pushing 200 kts on Tuesday, possibly providing good opportunity for gale or better development there. 

At the surface on Tuesday (10/27) high pressure at 1032 mbs was centered 600 nmiles west of Oregon ridging hard into the Pacific Northwest and down into California generating hard north to northwest winds along the entire coast and starting to produce raw but sizable windswell.  A weak gale was dropping south along the dateline (see Dateline Gale below) and the strong extratropical remnants of Typhoon Lupit were off Northern Japan (see ET Lupit below). Over the next 72 hours the dateline gale is to drop south and fade fast, gone by Wednesday (10/28) while Lupit tracks northeast and fades over the Aleutians just west of the dateline. Swell is expected from both systems. High pressure is to slowly fade off the Central CA coast with a new gale possibly starting to build well off the Pacific Northwest (see Longterm Forecast).   

Dateline Gale
On Monday (10/26) a gale started building on the dateline with 35-40 kt north winds over a tiny area at 40N 180W building to 40 kts over a small area and sinking south fast in the evening at 37N 180W. 25 ft seas were modeled at 38N 178W aimed due south, mostly bypassing the Hawaiian Islands, at least initially. The fetch faded a little Tuesday AM with 35 kt north winds confirmed at 35N 175W and aimed mostly due south and 25 ft seas modeled at 35N 177W. By Tuesday evening residual 30-35 kt north winds are to continue at 34N 173W with 23 ft seas modeled at 30N 175W pushing  pretty well west of the Hawaiian Islands. 30 kt north winds are to be fading fast at at 32N 170W Wednesday AM with 20 ft seas pushing south, southeast a bit better towards the Western Hawaiian Islands.

Assuming all this occurs some form of fun sized north sideband swell could start impacting the Hawaiian Islands mid-Thursday (10/29) reaching  6.6 ft @ 13 secs late (8.5 ft faces) peaking early Friday (10/30) at 7.8 ft @ 12 secs (9 ft faces) from 330 degrees. 

ET Lupit (updated Wed PM)
On Monday evening (10/26) the extratropical remnants of Typhoon Lupit were tracking north-northeast off Japan with a tiny fetch of confirmed 60 kts west winds building in the storms south quadrant at 153E 40N aimed west. 

Tuesday AM (10/27) that fetch was building with confirmed winds at 60-70 kts at 43N 156E. 36 ft seas were modeled at 42N 154E. This system built some more in the evening with 60 kt winds confirmed in it's southwest quadrant at 45N 162E aimed well down the 310 degree paths to Hawaii and 20 degrees south of the 303 degree path to NCal. 45 ft seas were modeled  at 44N 160E.  The Jason-1 satellite passed directly over the core of the fetch but was obscured by rain.  But a 15 reading average sea height of  39.4 ft with a peak reading of 41.3 ft was reported over the outer areas, consistent with the wave models.   

This storm continued tracking northeast on Wednesday AM (10/28) with 50-55 kt west-northwest winds and a few barbs to 60 kts at 47N 165E aimed well down the 318 degree path to Hawaii and 20 degrees south of the 303 degree path to Central CA. A small area of 42 ft seas was modeled at 47N 166W. This seems a bit low. In the evening a quick fade was forecast with 45-50 kts northwest winds forecast in the storms southwest quadrant at 49N 168E aimed down the 322 degree path to Hawaii and somewhat on the 304 degree path to Central CA.  38 ft seas forecast at 47-49N 172E pushing mostly due east. 

Thursday AM (10/29) this system is to be decaying fast with a tiny area of 45 kt northwest winds at 50N 173E aimed reasonably well down the 327 degree path to Hawaii and the 307 degree path to Central CA. 35 ft seas forecast at 47N 172E. This system is to be gone in the evening with 32 ft seas from previous fetch fading at 48N 178E. 

This system was a long ways away from either Hawaii (2109-2696 nmiles) or the US west coast (2858-3695 nmiles) and not large in areal coverage. Furthermore it was tracking northeast rather than east, not blowing for any length of time over the same stretch of water, not allowing a captured fetch (i.e. virtual fetch). The net result is less wind energy transfer to the oceans surface resulting in smaller seas over a smaller area. Furthermore, the fetch was aimed a bit south of the great circle tracks to the US West Coast, and instead favored the Hawaiian Islands. But it was a fairly intense system, with confirmed winds of 60 kts for nearly 48 hours and a few barbs to 70 kts. That is impressive.  But the end result is likely to be a smaller swell than what most would expect. Still well rideable surf is possible for the Hawaiian Islands for the weekend with decent but inconsistent size  for the US West Coast late in the weekend into the week beyond.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival starting at sunset Friday (10/30) with period 22 secs and swell barely noticeable.  Swell creeping up through the evening and getting most solid between 10 PM and 3 AM Sat (10/31) as period turns to 20 secs. Size to start peaking just after sunrise Sat through noon with swell 6.0-6.9 ft @ 18-19 secs (10.8-13.1 ft faces) and basically holding through the afternoon as period moves to 17 secs (3 PM).  This size estimate might be a little biased on the low side. Swell to continue at sunrise Sunday (11/1) at with swell down to 6.0-6.5 ft @ 15-16 secs early (9-10 ft faces), holding through the day but trending more towards a pure 15 sec interval.  13-14 sec residuals expected Monday.  Swell Direction: 310-317 degrees initially moving towards 320 degrees later in it's life.

North CA:  Expect swell arrival starting Saturday at 4 PM with period 22 secs and size barely noticeable.  Swell pushing up slowly through the evening with period hitting 20 secs after midnight, and holding well at 6-7 AM Sunday (11/1) swell pushing 5.5-6.0 ft @ 19-20 secs (11-12 ft faces) but very inconsistent. Swell to continue through the day at 5.5-6.0 ft @ 18 secs by sunset (10-11 ft faces). This estimate might be a bit on the high side. Swell to continue overnight with period down to 16-17 secs sunrise Monday (11/2) with swell 5.5 ft @ 17 secs  (9.0-9.5 ft faces) and slowly settling down through the day as period drops to 16 secs. Swell continuing to fade on Tuesday (11/3) with swell 5.0 ft @ 15 secs (7.5 ft faces) and heading down. 13 sec leftovers expected on Wed (11/4).  Swell Direction: 302-303 degrees (shadowed for the SF Bay Area).    

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (10/27) high pressure at 1034 mbs was centered 600 nmiles west of North CA ridging east into Oregon resulting in 30+ kt north winds nearshore from Pt Arena southward to Pt Conception and the Channel Islands and almost into Baja. The high and associated north winds are to continue Wednesday, but moderating some late down to 25-30 kts in the afternoon. By then warm surface water that was building along the coast is to be blown away.  Winds to be slowly settling down on Thursday though still 20 kts early and much turbulence and bump persisting in the ocean as the high tried to push onshore over Southern Oregon and northern CA. By Friday a light to calm wind flow is expected to take hold as a gale develops up north and pushes into the Pacific Northwest late. A little more high pressure is to try and make a stand on Sunday with 15 kt north winds off the coast, but reasonably calm nearshore early. A light wind flow to follow into early next week. 

 

Tropics
With the MJO in the Active Phase, net tropical activity is up:

Typhoon Mirinae was located just northwest of Saipan or about 1000 nmiles west of the Northern Philippines.  Mirinae was tracking effectively west at 19 kts with sustained winds 65 kts. This track is to continue with slow strengthening forecast. Mirinae is expected to be positioned just east of the Northern Philippines on Friday AM (10/30) with sustained winds 100 kts, making landfall overnight, then moving west and into the South China Sea afterward.  No swell production is expected for the greater Pacific from this system.    

 

South Pacific

Overview
At the surface on Tuesday (10/27) no swell producing fetch was occurring. The models continue to suggest a weak gale is to start pushing east under New Zealand Wed-Thurs (10/29) producing a modest sized fetch of 30-35 kt southwest winds aimed well to the northeast generating 28-30 ft seas. Given the time of year, odds are not in favor of it's formation.  

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a modest gale is forecast building well off the Pacific Northwest on Friday (10/30) with 30-35 kt west winds producing 29 ft seas at 48N 138W on the northern most extreme of the NCal swell window and aimed right at Oregon and Washington. Seas are to ramp up to 30 ft right before this system pushes onshore Saturday AM (10/31) just north of Vancouver Island.  Also there's some suggestion that another tropical fueled system might try and build off Kamchatka Tues (11/2) with energy also driving into the Gulf of Alaska by a fast moving and potent jetstream there. But that's pure speculation at this early date. 


MJO/ENSO Update (reference): As of Tuesday (10/27) the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) continued in the Active Phase, and fairly strong. The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index remaining negative with the Daily SOI index at -20.63, the 11th day in a row at that magnitude or higher attributable to low pressure under Tahiti and high pressure over Darwin Aus (19 days in a row solidly negative and 31 consecutive days nearly negative/not positive). The 30 day average was falling to -13.36 and the 90 average was down to -4.78.  This continues looking more like what would be considered real a El Nino. The SOI index is likely to continue heading down for the days ahead driven by the Active Phase of the MJO, and has surpassed the depths it reached in June, the peak of this El Nino's SOI trend and nearly equaling the deepest readings since April of the 2006 El Nino event. This is good.

Wind anomalies at the 850 mb level (approx 5000 ft up) as defined by models indicated light westerly anomalies over the entire equatorial Pacific from the Philippines over the dateline and extending east into Central America. Mild eastern anomalies associated with the Inactive Phase of the MJO continue covering the Northern Indian Ocean. The Active Phase is to continue in the Pacific tracking east through 11/9, with a dead neutral pattern setting up after that through 11/14. The Inactive phase is to make it to the Philippines on 11/4-11/9, then dissipate. The current configuration and strength suggest that the MJO signal does in-fact die during El Nino events. Our belief is that the mid-to-late October timeframe and even into early Nov still looks like a good window for support of North Pacific Storm development, with the focus moving slowly east from the West Pacific tropics towards the Central Pacific (Hawaii and the Western Gulf of Alaska). 

Sea Surface Temp anomaly data (10/26) continues essentially unchanged from the last update on 10/22 and suggesting steady changes over the past month, with the area of warmer than normal water expanding it's grip on the equator building solidly from west of the dateline (160E) over the dateline and east into Central/South America with temps holding at 2.0-3.0 deg C above normal in the east. This is suggestive of a moderate El Nino.  The expanse of the warmer waters continues to build north of the equator, solidifying it's grip up the coast of Mexico and Baja (though still retreated from Southern and Northern CA - the result of a local north wind/high pressure), and extending west almost to Hawaii then southwest to the dateline. And it is build some some south of the dateline too. If anything, this area is looking even stronger than even last update last week. Effectively there is a broad wide triangle of warmer than normal water extending from just south of San Diego southwest just under Hawaii and on to the intersection of the equator and the dateline and even west of there now, then tracking southeast on to Northern Peru.  This is not anything exceptional, but clearly a moderate El Nino. In reviewing surface water temp anomalies over the past decade and more, this is in no way similar to the monumental ENSO event of '97/98. But as previously stated, it still surpasses any event since then (over the last 12 years) in terms of water temps and areal coverage and is only slowly building on that position. Cooler than normal waters we had been monitoring off Africa have been mostly wiped out.

Below the surface on the equator things continue to turn towards the good, better than even the last update, which was better than the one before it. A steady flow of warmer than normal subsurface water continues tracking from the West Pacific (150 m below the surface) under the dateline and breaking the surface near Central America as it has for months now.  We have been expecting to see surface water temperatures jump up in Oct off Central America as the last Kelvin wave dispersed there, feeding the developing warm water pool and fueling El Nino. We think that is happening, but in a much more subtle way, with the trades in the area blowing warmer surface waters west. The latest imagery depicts the movement of warm waters to the west, and the expanse of those waters is increasing. So though the total temperature anomaly is not getting warmer off Central America, the expanse of those warm waters is increasing. A core of 2 deg warmer than normal water that first appeared under the dateline on 9/17 moved east to 175W by 9/22 and 172W on 9/24, then built to 3 degrees above normal (9/29) and continued growing as of 10/18 at 160W.  Data on 10/20 depicted intensification with temps pushing solidly 4 degrees C above normal. And as of 10/22 that anomaly looked to be broaching the 5 degree mark and was holding if not expanding on 10/25. This is good. On 10/26 it was confirmed a 5 degrees above normal and racing east, much faster than previous Kelvin Waves. It was located at 145W and making daily eastward progress. this Wave is associated with a persistent westerly surface wind flow that had been in-place west of the dateline from 9/8. It is expected to reach the coast of Ecuador possibly late November or early December, about at the peak of whatever El Nino will be in place for this winter. So all looks good for maintaining the existing warm pool for a while if not building it.  

On 10/1 a solid patch of westward winds were depicted in-control of the West Pacific with strong west anomalies extending to almost the dateline. This had been in-play since 9/27 and was associated with tropical systems Parma and Melor. This was good news. A full on Westerly Wind Burst was in effect. As of 10/3 fully blowing west winds were subsiding, though westerly anomalies continued reaching to the dateline.  And by 10/6 just light west winds were in effect west of the dateline.  But then again on 10/7 another group of fully blowing west winds were depicted extending all the way to the dateline, with decent force too. Anomalies were in full effect to the dateline and beyond to the east. On 10/11 light west winds were still in effect to the dateline with solid anomalies over the dateline and to a point south of Hawaii. And by 10/13 a light west flow was in effect with full west anomalies still in place to the dateline and east to about Hawaii fading some into 10/20 but still light west winds were west of the dateline and anomalies east of there. Then on 1021 another batch of fully blowing west winds were in-play with solid anomalies to 160W (south of Hawaii) and almost to 140W, making further eastward progress than anything so far this El Nino event. By 1024 that pattern continued if not intensified with fully blowing west winds to the dateline a solid anomalies to 140W and maybe even more. And on 10/26 the pattern continue, with anomolies pushing even further eastward to near 130W.  This puts anomalies over almost the entire equatorial Pacific.  Impressive. This all remains very good news and is associated with the current Active Phase of the MJO. The anomalous flow continues making more inroads towards the East Pacific. Again, this is classic El Nino symptoms. This is the first such event for this El Nino and if anything is on the upswing. For over a month now (since 9/8) a continuous moderate westerly anomaly has been in-play from the west up to the dateline. These westerly anomalies started with Typhoon Dujuan and continued with Choi-Wan gently feeding the subsurface warm water flow. And then with Parma, Melor and Nepartak, that flow was enhanced.  At this time all these anomalies appear to be consolidating the resulting warm waters into one strong Kelvin Wave, the one currently pushing east from the dateline (see above). This one is expected to reinforce the Kelvin Wave currently impacting Central America. 

At this time we are saying this developing El Nino is past the critical juncture and will survive in some fashion with effects continuing in the atmosphere until at least the Spring of next year. All data suggests this will not be a strong El Nino, more likely a weak to moderate one. NOAA's most recent update (10/8) forecasts the same outcome, though hints at a possible intensification (but not likely). A solid accumulation of warm water in the equatorial East Pacific is evidence in-favor of continued development. As long as there continues to be WWB's (as there obviously is), then warm water will be migrating east, and the warm water pattern will hold if not build, and the atmosphere above it will respond in-kind to the change (towards El Nino). At this point there is no evidence to suggest this El Nino will stall or dissipate. The only remaining question is whether it will hold, or grow. And current data indicates that the warm pool will hold if not slowly build. And historically it is already larger and strong than any other in the past 12 years. 

The next milestone we're monitoring is development of this Active Phase of the MJO occurring now (10/3). The models indicate it is moderate in strength and should hold for a few weeks. Also water temps need to hold if not build (as is happening now). Our thoughts are that El Nino might gain a little more strength, but not much, with a 2 degree water temp anomaly in the tropical East Pacific the likely outcome. Coverage is pretty solid for this event, but the lack of really high water temp anomalies will likely limit it's strength. Strong El Ninos bring lot's of bad weather to the US West Coast, along with the potential for storm and swell enhancement. A moderate El Nino provides storm and swell enhancement, a gentle but steady push/momentum in-favor of storm development rather than the manic frenzy of a strong El Nino, but without all the weather associated with a strong event. So in many ways a moderate El Nino is more favorable from a surf perspective. As of right now things remain better than anything the Pacific has seen in the past 12 years regarding anomalous sea surface temperatures, besting anything since the big El Nino of 1997. That is very good news.  But the lack of anomalous water temps exceeding 3 degrees and an unremarkable SOI suggests a modest El Nino at best. Still, it should be enough to provide storm enhancement, and a better than average winter surf season for the North Pacific, and still likely better than anything in the past 10 years. Better yet, if it's not too strong (as this event appears to be) perhaps it will not degrade into La Nina the year after (which typically happens after stronger El Ninos), but hold in some mild El Nino like state for several years in a row. This would be an even better outcome.   

See more details in the new  El Nino update.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the models indicate no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. 

Details to follow...

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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MAVERICKSSURF MAVFILM MAVSURFER SURFPULSE Inside Mavericks Randy Cone Surfboards

Local Interest

Interview With Stormsurf:  The crew at SurfScience.com worked with Stormsurf on a feature about why surfers should be able to read wave charts themselves. They are firm believers that a little learning can go a long way to help your surfing.  This is a great article to help convince your friends that they can benefit from being able to read the data themsleves rather than just relying on the forecasts of others.  See the full thing here:  Create Your Own Surf Forecast with Stormsurf

Mavericks - Everest of the Sea & Longboard Vineyards: Come late October Sonoma County will not only welcome a new crop of world class wines, but the award winning photography of some of Action Sports best lensmen. “ Mavericks – Everest of the Seas” comes alive again just in time to set the stage for another epic Big Wave Season. Mix two of Northern California's finest institutions – big wave surfing and the wine country – and you have what promises to be an amazing weekend at the Longboard Vineyards Tasting Room in Healdsburg
October 23 – 25.

Relive heroic battles between man and wave as seen through the eyes of the cutting-edge photojournalists who risk life and limb to document the wave's intense man-against-the-sea drama and obsessive lifestyle of Maverick's elite riders. Oded Shakked, a longtime surfer who founded Longboard Vineyards, will be unveiling his latest release, The Peter Mel/Mavericks Cabernet Sauvignon. This signature wine will be blended by not only Shakked but guest vintner, Peter Mel. Mel, one of the most respected names in Big Wave Surfing is known as perhaps the most skillful surfer ever to ride Mavericks. The famed spot off the Half Moon Bay. In October of 1998 he was whipped into to what is now considered the biggest wave ever ridden… Mel along with the featured photographers, surfboard shapers and wine makers will be on hand for the Friday night reception. The reception will begin at 5pm and run until roughly 9pm.

Longboard Vineyard has always had a soft spot for surfers. It's a place where you can hangout at a redwood-surfboard bar, or sample one
of its award winning wines while kicking back on a comfortable sofa watching surf movies. For this harvest weekend event Shakked has
enlisted “Mavericks: Everest of the Seas,” the heralded collection of Mavericks surf photography from Frank Quirarte, Doug Acton, Seth
Migdail and Ed Grant.

“Everest of the Seas” first made its debut recently at the Coastal Arts League Gallery in Half Moon Bay, drawing large crowds and an
enthusiastic response. It just finished a one-month highly successful run at San Francisco's world class Museum and Gallery, SFMOMA.“Everyone who sees the exhibit is just blown away,” said Grant, the curator of the Coastal Arts League Gallery. “Both surfers and non-surfers can't help but get caught up in the energy and stoke that surrounds Maverick's, the surfers and photographers who put it on the
line every time they go out there.”

The event also represents a high point in the career of Oded Shakked, who was born in Israel and grew up near a beach just north of Tel
Aviv. Immersed in surfing from the start, he made several trips around Europe's Atlantic coast while discovering, to his delight, that “it
was easier, cheaper and safer to drink good red wine than bottled water.” His twin loves of surfing and wine brought him to California,
where he studied winemaking at UC Davis and became enamored with the people, climate and rich soil of Sonoma County. He founded Longboard Vineyards with the motto “Wine, waves and soul,” making it a highly unique fixture in wine country.

The October 23-25 weekend will also feature the sale of surfboards and memorabilia, along with Acton's acclaimed book, “Inside Maverick's.”
Admission is free. Opening reception sponsored by Maverick Events and Longboard Vineyards

The Kelly Slater Project - A fundraiser is scheduled for Aug 29th at the Cocoa Beach Country Club to help raise funds for both the Kelly Slater Project and the Central Florida Animal Reserve. A Casino night is planned including a silent auction and raffle. Sponsors are also needed. Learn more about these projects at : http://www.thekellyslaterproject.com/

Rebuild Jeff Clark: Jeff Clark the first pioneer of Mavericks, recently underwent hip resurfacing surgery due to severe pain from deterioration of his hip. Needless to say the procedure is very expensive and his insurance only covers tiny portion of the bill. If you're interested in learning about the procedure or would like to donate to help Jeff out, please take a look here: http://www.rebuildjeffclark.blogspot.com/

North California Surf Report Works Again: After an extended downtime we finally got the North California Surf Report working again. Thanks for your patience. See it here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/report/ncal.html

Shark Video: Our friend Curt Myers of Powerlines productions shot this footage of 2 great whites munching on a whale carcass off Devils Slide (south of San Francisco) on Thursday. Kind of interesting to watch. Check it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I4rZYEZMWQ (Fixed link)

Wave Model Upgrade Status Report: At this point we believe the installation of the new wave models is complete, with no problems being reported, the server stabilizing and the much requested return of the old style hemispheric Surf Height models now operational (again) and running side-by-side along the new ones. We thank you for your patience and input as we went though this process.  Your feedback helps guide our efforts and ultimately results in a better product for everyone.  Now we're off to start providing better menus to some wave model products most of you probably haven't uncovered yet (site specific graph and text forecasts), updateing the wave model FAQs and then upgrading the Weather Models.  

New Wave Model Facts: Click HERE to read more about the new wave models. Important info.

Stormsurf Wave Models Updated: On Friday (2/6) we installed the latest upgrade to our wavemodels. A year in the works, this upgrade essentially is a total re-write of every wave model product we produce. They now take advantage of the new Version 3 of the Wavewatch wavemodel. This version runs at a much higher resolution, specifically 0.0 X 0.5 degrees for the global grib with local products at 0.1667 X 0.1667 degrees, and it uses the hi-res GFS model for wind speeds. And of even more interest, the model now identifies primary swell and windwave variables. As such we now have new model images which displays this data. Also we've included out special 3D topographic land masks into all models. In all it makes for a radical step forward in wave model technology. We'll be upgrading minor components (FAQ, new menu pages etc) for a few weeks to come, but all the basics are available for your use now. Check it out here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_wam.html

Story About Stormsurf: The folks at SurfPulse (and specifically author Mike Wallace) have written up a really nice article about Stormsurf, complete with some good pics. Learn about how we came to be and a little of where we are going. Check it out here: http://www.surfpulse.com/2009/01/visceral-surf-forecasting-with-mark-sponsler/

Stormsurf Video: Just for fun - here's a clip about Stormsurf that ran on Bay Area TV a while back. Thought you might enjoy it: http://vimeo.com/2319455

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Need Chiropractic Help? Visit our friends at Darrow Chiropractic. Not only will Dr. Darrow fix you up, he might give you some big wave surfing tips too! See more here: http://www.darrowchiropractic.com/

Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml

Free Stormsurf Stickers - Get your free stickers! - More details Here

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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