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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, October 27, 2019 4:02 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.5 - California & 3.9 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 10/28 thru Sun 11/3

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Neoguri Swell Expected for HI
Lesser Energy to Reach CA - Nothing Forecast Behind

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Sunday, October 27, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 2.6 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 9.3 secs from 239 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 6.6 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 5.5 ft @ 11.1 secs from 338 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 1.7 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.0 ft @ 12.1 secs from 207 degrees. Wind at the buoy was east at 8-10 kts. Water temperature 67.8 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.7 ft @ 10.0 secs from 250 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 10.2 secs from 219 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.3 ft @ 12.7 secs from 199 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.2 ft @ 12.5 secs from 188 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 10.7 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 8.2 ft @ 8.8 secs from 320 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 20-23 kts. Water temp 53.6 degs (013) and 57.0 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (10/26) in North and Central CA new local north windswell was producing sets waves at shoulder high and a bit warbled and mushy from north winds off the coast and with textured conditions nearshore. Protected breaks were chest to shoulder high and lined up with clean surface conditions but with a fair amount of warble intermixed. At Santa Cruz waves were waist high on the bigger sets and clean but weak and inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura surf was flat and clean. In North Orange Co southern hemi swell was still producing some waves at waist high or so and clean and lined up. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were getting some southern hemi swell with set waves at waist high and clean and lined up but weak and inconsistent. North San Diego had no real rideable surf with clean conditions. Hawaii's North Shore was getting solid rideable swell with waves 1-2 ft overhead and clean and lined up early. The South Shore had some thigh high sets and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves chest high and chopped early from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (10/26) in California local windswell was producing some rideable surf but nothing more. But in Hawaii swell was hitting from a weak and poorly organized gale that developed while tracking from Japan to the Western Gulf Sun-Tues (10/22) producing 18-20 ft seas aimed east then racing northeast into the Northern Gulf on Wed (10/23). Of more interest is a stronger gale that developed over the Dateline region on Thurs (10/24) with 46 ft seas aimed east the redeveloped on Fri (10/25) with 34-37 ft seas aimed southeast and with 27 ft seas holding over a solid area into Sun (10/27). Swell is radiating south and east but should not be as big as one would hope for. The South Pacific is asleep for the foreseeable future.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (10/26) the jetstream was a bit fragmented pushing off North Japan and ridging north up to a point just off Kamchatka before consolidating and falling south into a solid trough over the dateline with winds up to 140 kts offering good support for gale development. From there the jet ridged hard north up into Alaska tracking inland before falling down the coast of British Columbia and then tracking inland over Washington offering nothing of interest. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to persist while moving east and slowly lifting north over the Northwestern Gulf on Tues (10/29) with most of it's focused over the Bering Sea at that time and no longer supporting gale formation. But at that time the jet is to be fully consolidated streaming off Japan on the 40N latitude line with winds 120 kts in pockets reaching the whole way to the Gulf though no troughs are forecast. The strong ridge is to be holding over the Gulf of Alaska. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (10/29) the same situation is to persist and by Thursday (10/31) the jet is to start falling into a new broad but weak trough over the Dateline but quickly weakening and starting to pinch on Fri (11/1) and becoming very weak on Sat (11/2) not offering any support for gale development. Some flavor of the ridge is to be holding over the Eastern Gulf as well. In all no real support for gale development is forecast other than the current trough over the Dateline.


Surface Analysis
On Saturday (10/26) swell from the Weak Japan Gale (below) is to be fading in Hawaii. Of more interest is swell radiating southeast from Extratropical Storm Neoguri targeting Hawaii and California (see Extratropical Storm Neoguri below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

Extratropical Storm Neoguri
Redevelopment of Tropical Storm Neoguri occurred on Thurs AM (10/24) as it tracked northeast just off the coast of Japan with winds 45 kts heading northeast and then rapidly built as it tapped jetstream energy developing to storm status while pushing over the dateline with 50 kt northwest winds and seas building from 35 ft over a tiny area at 43.5N 171.5E aimed east. In the evening west winds continued at 50 kts with seas building to 46 ft over a small area aimed east at 45N 177E. On Fri AM (10/25) fetch was wrapping around down into the gales west quadrant aimed south at 45-50 kts and clear of the Central Aleutians with 37 ft seas from previous fetch aimed east at the US West Coast at 46N 175W and a new area of 34 ft seas building at 48N 176E aimed southeast at Hawaii. In the evening a solid area of 40-45 kt northwest winds were in place over the North Dateline aimed southeast with 35 ft seas at 47N 179.5E targeting Hawaii and the US West Coast well. North fetch was fading some on Sat AM (10/26) from 40 kts with 32 ft seas at 48N 179E aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well. In the evening northwest winds to continue at 40 kts over a solid area aimed southeast with 32 ft seas at 48.5N 178.5W aimed southeast. On Sunday AM (10/27) north winds to be 30-35 kts with seas fading from 27 ft at 46N 176W aimed southeast mainly at Hawaii. The gale is to fade out in the evening with winds fading from 30 kts aimed southeast and seas fading from 22 ft at 45N 171W aimed at Hawaii and the US West Coast. Some swell to result but not as large as one would hope for given it's rather small fetch area initially and it'
s north position and distance from either Hawaii or the US West Coast.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sun (10/27) from the first part of this storm building to 5.0 ft @ 16-17 secs late (8.0 ft). Swell peaking on Mon AM (10/28) with swell 7.0 ft @ 16 secs (11.0 ft) holding through the day. Swell starting to fade on Tues AM (10/29) from 7.0 ft @ 15 secs (10.5 ft). Still some energy is to be left Wed AM (10/30) fading from 5.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (9.0 ft). Residuals fading out on Thurs AM (10/31) from 4.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.0 ft). Swell dissipating Fri AM (11/1) from 2.8 ft @ 12 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 320 degrees initially moving to 335 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (10/28) with swell from the first portion of this storm building to 2.9 ft @ 18 secs later (5.0 ft). Swell peaking on Tues AM (10/29) at 3.5 ft @ 16-17 secs early (5.5 ft). Residuals on Wed AM (10/30) fading from 2.8 ft @ 14 secs (4.0 ft). Swell continues on Thurs AM (10/31) building slightly to 3.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (11/1) from 3.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (11/2) fading from 2.2 ft @ 11 secs (2.5 ft).

Southern CA: No meaningful energy to reach into exposed breaks in Southern CA.

 

Weak Japan Gale
On Sun PM (10/20) a weak gale developed off North Japan producing 35 kt northwest winds and seas building to 20 ft over a tiny area at 40N 156E aimed east at Hawaii but a long way away from there. On Mon AM (10/21) the gale tracked southeast with 25-30 kt northwest winds and seas 18 ft over a tiny area at 37N 161E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale was tracking east fast over the dateline with 30-35 kt northwest winds and that fetch loosing traction given the gales fast forward speed with 17 ft seas in a tiny pocket at 38N 177E aimed southeast. On Tues AM (10/22) the gale was racing northeast towards the Northern Gulf of Alaska producing 30 kt north winds aimed south at Hawaii with 18 ft seas at 41N 169W aimed somewhat at Hawaii. After that the gale is to be racing north with no fetch aimed anywhere but at Alaska. Perhaps some weak and tiny swell to result for Hawaii with luck.

Hawaii: Swell continues on Sat (10/26) 4.2 ft @ 10-11 secs (4.0 ft), Swell dissipating Sun (10/27) from 2.7 ft @ 10 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315 moving to 350 degrees

 

Windswell Outlook
On Sat (10/26) strong high pressure at 1040 mbs was just west of the Canadian Coast driving a developing fetch of north winds at 30-35 kts along Cape Mendocino early and forecast building to 40 kts in the late afternoon producing building windswell radiating south. 20 kt north winds to reach as far south as the Golden Gate with 15 kt north winds to maybe Point Conception late afternoon. No easterly fetch of interest is forecast for Hawaii offering no windswell generation potential. On Sun AM (10/27) northerly fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts along and just off of North CA with an offshore flow developing for all of North CA down into mid-Central CA. No windswell producing fetch is forecast for Hawaii. On Mon (10/28) north winds to persist at 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino offering some potential for small windswell production radiating south along the North and Central CA coast. No fetch is forecast for Hawaii. On Tues (10/29) north winds to hold at 20 kts over Cape Mendocino offering weak odds for small windswell production mainly for North CA. No windswell producing fetch is expected for Hawaii.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
On Sat AM (10/26) the remnants of Typhoon Bualoi were circulating 250 nmiles off the Southern Kuril Islands with winds to 40 kts tracking north. This system is forecast to dissipate offering no swell production of interest for the greater North Pacific.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (10/26) north winds were 30-35 kts over Cape Mendocino but 10 kts from Bodega Bay southward early building to 35-40 kts for Pt Arena northward late afternoon and 15 kts south of the Golden Gate. Sun (10/27) northeast winds to be 20-25 kts early for Cape Mendocino and 20 kts down to Monterey Bay early and then 20 kts for North CA later and 15 kts for Central CA. Mon and Tues (10/29) light winds are forecast everywhere all day except northeast for Cape Mendocino at 20-25 kts early Mon turning to north at 20 kts on Tues (10/29). Light winds forecast everywhere Wed-Sat (11/2) but north at 20 kts for Cape Mendocino Fri (11/1) and north 15 kts on Sat (11/2). No precipitation forecast over the entire period with high pressure in control.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch is occurring and no swell is in the water.  

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the models suggest a tiny gale might develop while lifting northeast over the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska on Wed AM (10/30) producing a tiny area of 18-20 ft seas aimed northeast. No swell to result for the US Coast.

Windswell Outlook
On Wed (10/30) high pressure is to be fading off British Columbia with north winds 20 kts off and just north of Cape Mendocino producing minimal windswell radiating south into exposed breaks in North CA. No windswell indicated for Hawaii. On Thurs (10/31) north winds are to dissipate or be in the 15 kts range off Cape Mendocino offering no swell production potential of interest. No fetch is forecast for Hawaii. On Fri (11/1) north winds to rebuild weakly over Cape Mendocino at 15-20 kts perhaps offering some minimal windswell production radiating south over only North CA. No fetch is forecast for Hawaii. On Sat (11/2) north winds to hold at 15 kts for Cape Mendocino offering nothing of real interest. East trades to be 15 kts between 300-1800 nmiles east of the Big Islands but no further north likely not offering any windswell production potential for any of the Islands but perhaps the Big Island.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Inactive MJO in Control

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/25) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific then moderate plus strength from the east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific continuing neutral over the Central Pacific and then moderate easterly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (10/26) easterly anomalies were moderate over the entire KWGA today. The forecast is for east anomalies to hold in coverage filling the KWGA through the end of the model run and continuing building east pushing into California 10/28. there were some weak signs of east anomalies weakening starting 10/31 but there's no sign of west anomalies anywhere for the next 7 days. A strong pulse of the Inactive Phase of the MJO is underway. And strong east anomalies are to remain locked in the Indian Ocean at 70-80E.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (10/25) A weak Inactive Phase of the MJO was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive Phase is to be gone at day 5 turning weakly Active at day 10 then returning to weakly Inactive at day 15. The dynamic model indicates a weak Inactive pattern through day 5 then turning neutral and holding through day 15. The 2 models are generally in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (10/26) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Central Indian Ocean and is to migrate to the far West Pacific at day 15 and at very weak strength at that time. The GEFS model remains on board suggesting some version of the same pattern.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (10/26) This model depicts a weak active MJO was over the Central Pacific today with a strong Inactive Signal over Central America. The Active pattern is to track east pushing into Central America on 11/20 while a weak Inactive Phase starts building in the West Pacific 11/15. This Inactive Phase is to ease east pushing into Central America at the end of the model run on 12/5. At that time a new weak Active Phase is to be starting to move towards the West Pacific moving from the Maritime Continent.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/25) This model depicts modest east anomalies filling the KWGA today and they are forecast to hold for a few day, then give way to weak west anomalies 10/28 through 11/7. After that weak eat anomalies are to return filling the KWGA 11/9 till the end of the model run on 11/22. Extremely strong east anomalies are filling the Indian Ocean today centered at 80E and are to remain unchanged through the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/26) This model depicts a moderate Inactive MJO pattern filling the KWGA today but past it's peak with weak east anomalies also filling the KWGA. The forecast has east anomalies holding through 10/28 then fading, with weak west anomalies starting to build on 10/29 and slowly increasing in coverage with the Inactive Phase fading out on 11/11. The Active Phase is to begin on 11/10 lasting through 12/5 with modest west anomalies in the heart of the KWGA. A weak Inactive MJO signal is to develop 12/6 fading to neutral on 12/27 with a weak Active MJO pattern following 12/29 through the end of the model run on 1/23. Regardless weak west anomalies are to persist in the KWGA through the remainder of the model run. Of note: Strong east anomalies are in the core of the Indian Ocean today at 80E and are to hold solid through 12/29 then slowly weakening but still present at the end of the model run with it's leading edge perhaps easing east to 140E in short burst on 12/17. The low pass filter changed on 7/25 and is holding today with a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. A third contour line was to develop on 12/1 but has disappeared from the model today. A high pressure bias built in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22 holding through the end of the model run. This model indicates that a weak El Nino like pattern is to possibly rebuild. That is not believable given all current observations concerning subsurface and surface water temperature anomaly pattern over the equatorial Pacific.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/26) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs pushing east today to 180W while the 29 deg isotherm was easing east to 166W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding from 152W to 155W today. The 24 deg isotherm moved east on 10/20 from 120W to 105W but has backtracked some today to 109W. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire Pacific with one pocket at +2 degs pushing east from the far West Pacific and another 160 meters down on the dateline and a broader one at +2 deg centered at 115W indicative of Kelvin Wave #5 on the move to the east. Warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific. The collapse of a previous cool pool in the East Pacific is a significant positive development. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/20 indicates warm water from Westerly Wind Burst #5 has formed a Kelvin Wave extending from 160E under the Dateline east to 100W with temps +2-3 degs over the whole area with cool anomalies from 95W into Ecuador drawing up from depth to the surface and being forced east by the Kelvin Wave. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/20) A shrinking area of positive anomalies was starting to break up scattered between 150E reaching east to near 95W at +5 cms. But a pocket of neutral anomalies was in the middle of this spread from 170E-150W. Negative anomalies were fading locally along Peru and extending west to the Galapagos and south of the equator at -7S to 150W, backtracking as compared to weeks and months previous.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (10/25) The latest images ( 1.2 3.4 ) indicate cool anomalies were steady along Peru and Ecuador and building up to the Galapagos and out along the equator to 100W. Warm water was fading in pockets 1 deg north of the equator from the Galapagos west to 100W and stronger and continuous west of there. Weak cool anomalies were mostly south of the equator from Ecuador to 105W other than some pocket of weak warming on the equator. There has been a steady evaporation of El Nino in the East equatorial Pacific south of the equator this summer and that pattern continues today. A previous warming spurt the last 2 weeks appears to be fading out.  
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/25): Today a building pocket of cool anomalies was present between Ecuador over the Galapagos and a little west of there. Generic warming was west of there on the equator. And a broad weak pocket of warming was developing pushing off Chile to the equator at 110W and west of there. The short term trend is now towards at best weak warming.
Hi-res Overview: (10/25) A weak La Nina like cool pool is holding mainly south of the equator off Peru reaching north to the equator from Ecuador to just west of the Galapagos. Otherwise gentle warming is pushing west on the equator, strongest from 105W and points west of there. Warmer than normal water was north of the equator from the remnants of El Nino, but mostly gone south of the equator. El Nino appears to be in retreat but La Nina does not appear to be building.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/26) Today's temps were falling hard again at -1.529 after previously dropping to -1.921 degs on 10/10, that after falling to -1.8 degs on 9/15, then up to +0.030 on 10/2. Temps have been pretty consistently negative since June 1.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(10/26) Temps were falling slightly today but still on a generally upward trend at +0.280 degs after previously bottoming out on 8/28 at -0.510 degs and 9/15 at -0.60 degs. The trend has been generally upwards since Sept.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (10/26) The model indicates a cooling trend set up late summer with temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept then rising to +0.25 degs in early Oct. The forecast has temps rising reaching +0.5 degs by Oct 31 and then forecast to toggle between the +0.4 to +0.5 deg range through May 1 2020, then fading to neutral July 1. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for the mid-term, possibly turning neutral after that.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Aug 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.30 degs in August, and are to hold in the +0.50 range into Dec/Jan, then fading slightly to +0.45 in May/April 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (10/26): The daily index was negative today at -10.96 and has been negative the last 4 days. The 30 day average was negative and falling some today -3.96. The 90 day average was falling some at -6.50, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): Sept +1.13, August +0.64, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (10/27):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOgfP20WCHk&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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