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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, November 4, 2014 9:11 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
Swell Potential Rating = 3.0 - California & 1.8 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 11/3 thru Sun 11/9

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

North Dateline Region Becoming Active
Fueled By Tropical West Pacific

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (11/4) in North and Central CA surf was 1-2 ft overhead coming from the Gulf and clean with long lines and peeling on sets. Down in Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high and clean, but weak and inconsistent. In Southern California up north surf was knee to thigh high on the sets and clean with some light texture. Down south waves were thigh high and weak wit north textured running through it. Hawaii's North Shore was getting Gulf sideband swell from the north with waves head high to 1 ft overhead and clean and lined up. The South Shore was thigh to waist high and weak. The East Shore was getting Gulf sideband swell too with waves waist high and chopped by easterly trades. .

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
New swell from a gale that tracked east through the Northern Gulf Fri-Sat (11/1) with seas up to 24 ft was hitting California providing rideable surf from Pt Conception northward and pushing south. A decent sized gale is tracking off Kamchatka with 23 ft seas and is forecast pushing into the Western Gulf by Fri (11/7) still with 23 ft seas, then fading. Swell to result. The remnants of Super Typhoon Nuri to be turning extratropical right behind it on the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutians on Fri-Sat (11/8) generating possibly 40 ft seas aimed east, fading then being reinforced by more fetch generating more 26 ft seas into Tues (11/11).  Something to monitor. Regardless, the presence of Nuri confirms the down phase of the MJO is past and no longer suppressing storm development in the West Pacific.    

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview 
Jetstream - On Tuesday (11/4) the jet was pushing northeast off North Japan at 170 kts forming a trough over the North China Sea with the jet reaching the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutians, then falling south with winds 150 kts forming another trough in the Western Gulf before turning east and pushing over Vancouver Island. Support for gale development was occurring in both troughs. Over the next 72 hours winds in the Kamchatka trough to hold at near 170 kts and start pushing flat east pushing over the dateline on Wed (11/5) building to near 190 kts later Thurs (11/6) and connecting to the Gulf trough while falling southeast forming a broad trough reaching from the dateline into the Gulf of Alaska. That trough to start pinching some on Friday with it's apex reaching south to a point 900 nmiles north of Kauai providing good support for gale if not storm development. Beyond 72 hours another batch of 180 kts winds to develop just east of the Kurils pushing flat though fading some into Sun (11/9) generating a generally zonal flow centered down at 40N and extending east to the Central Gulf.  This flow could be supportive of gale development. This pattern is to hold well into Tues (11/11) and making more inroads to the east with a primer trough developing on it's leading edge off the Eastern Gulf off Central CA with the flow starting to spill east in that direction. More support for gale development possible from the dateline eastward. In all a nice early season pattern is projected from the upper level atmospheric perspective.  

Surface Analysis  - On Tuesday (11/4) swell from a gale that tracked through the Northern Gulf over the weekend (Fri-Sat 11/1) was hitting Hawaii and California (see Another Gulf Gale below). Also a new cold core low was developing over the North China Sea west of Kamchatka.

Over the next 72 hours the gale in the North China Sea is to be easing east with fetch reaching the open Northwest Pacific Tues PM (11/4) with west winds 35 kts and seas building to 25 ft at 46N 161E (315 degs HI, 305 degs NCal). Winds to hold at 35 kts easing somewhat east off the Kamchatka Peninsula Wed AM (11/5) with 25 ft seas over a solid area at 49N 167E (324 degs HI, 307 degs NCal). Fetch is to be pushing east and positioned just south of the Central Aleutians at 30-35 kt in the evening with 25 ft seas at 51N 172E (330 degs HI, 307 degs NCal). This fetch is to be building in to a new gale on the dateline on Thurs AM (11/6) forming a decent fetch of 30-35 kt northwest winds targeting Hawaii and California well. Seas holding at 25 ft at 45N 172W (336 degs HI, 296 degs NCal). 35 kt northwest winds to persist in the Western Gulf falling southeast in the evening with 23 ft seas at 43N 166W (345 degs HI, 292 degs NCal). Fetch to fall below 30 kts Fri AM (11/7) with seas fading from 18 ft at 38N 162W (350 degs HI degs NCal). If all this comes to pass some solid sized 14 secs period swell could result for Hawaii mid-weekend with solid utility class swell for California early next week.   

Another Gulf Gale
A
new gale developed in the Eastern Bering Sea on Thurs PM (10/30) with a small area of 45 kts west winds on the intersection of the dateline and just south of the Aleutians generating a tiny area of 26 ft seas at 49N 178W (334 degs HI, 306 degs NCal). On Fri AM (10/31) the core of the gale lifted north into the Bering Sea with 30-35 kt west winds barely getting exposure south of the Central Aleutians generating a small area of 24 ft seas up at 52N 170W (308 degs NCal). This fetch pushed east in the evening with 35 kt west winds covering a better area south of the East Aleutians generating a broad area of 20-22 ft seas at 52N 170W (310 degs NCal). By Sat AM (11/1) 35 kt west winds were holding while pushing quickly east with 24 ft seas at 52N 160W (310 degs NCal, 358 degs HI). A quick fade followed with winds 30 kts in the evening and 23 ft seas at 52N 151W (312 degs NCal). Small swell is in the water hitting Hawaii and California.  

Hawaii: Swell fading on Wed AM (11/5) from 4.5 ft @ 11 secs (5 ft). Swell Direction:320-330 degrees

North CA: Residuals fading on Wed AM (11/5) from 5.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (6 ft faces). Swell fading Thurs AM (11/6) from 4 ft @ 12-13 secs (5 ft faces). Swell Direction: 308-310 degrees

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
Tropical Depression Vance
was located 300 nmiles south of Acapulco Mexico on Thurs AM (10/30) tracking west with winds 30 kts. By Saturday AM (11/1) this system was at minimal tropical storm status (35 kt winds) and ill defined tracking northwest. Vance built to hurricane status by Sat PM with winds 65 kts tracking northwest then made a turn to the north positioned at 14.5N 111W Mon AM (11/3) with winds 65 kts and positioned 1250 nmiles from Pt Dume and on the 158 degree track. It was barely east of the swell window for Dana Point. Vance turned fully north at 18Z on Monday (11/3) with winds 95 kts at 15.9N 110.8W with seas 25 ft or 1150 nmiles from Pt Dume on the 157 degree track and in the swell window 1100 nmiles from Dana Point on the 158 degree track. Assuming a 14 sec period, swell arrival expected Wed sunrise (11/5) at 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2 ft). Vance turning northeast and was moving out of the SCal swell window by 12Z Tues (11/4) 1000 nmiles away from Dana Point. Vance is to move inland 40 nmiles north of Mazatlan Mexico Wed AM (11/5) at tropical storm status.

Super Typhoon Nuri was in the far West Pacific about 600 nmiles east of the Central Philippines on Sun (11/2) at 18Z with winds peaking at 155 kts (178 mph) tracking north-northwest generating 48 ft seas. A turning to the north developed in the evening with winds still 155 kts and seas corrected at 38 ft. Nuri continued north-northeast into Mon AM (11/3) with winds still 155 kts and seas 50 ft at 19.8 N 133.6E. Nuri continued north-northeast into Tues AM 911/4) with winds down to 120 kts and seas 45 ft. A steady track to the north-northeast is expected with Nuri 300 nmiles east of Tokyo Japan on Thurs AM (11/6) with winds 65 kts. From there a quick recurve to the east-northeast is forecast with Nuri turning extratropical and building quickly as it approaches the dateline during the day Fri (11/7). Something to monitor.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday AM (11/4) high pressure at 1028 mbs was ridging into the North CA coast generating north winds at 10-15 kts over outer waters of mainly Central CA. An even lighter flow is forecast on Wednesday with a front approaching Oregon and the extreme North CA coast but the low associated with it lifting north fast. Light rain is forecast for Cape Mendocino on Thursday with light winds everywhere. Weak high pressure and north winds building to 15 kts are forecast late Friday for all of North and Central CA. Winds to die back to 10 kts or less Saturday fading to near calm Sunday as another low builds off the coast lifting north fast. Light winds Monday turning south for Pt Reyes northward late and holding Tuesday as another low builds off the coast. Light rain possible for North CA down to the Golden Gate Tuesday (11/11) with more queuing up behind.    

 

Overview
Surface Analysis  - No swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

Previously..

A gale with 40 ft seas at 44S 150E (213 degs Fiji) tracked under Tasmania on Tues AM (10/28) then pushing east-northeast reaching the mid-Tasman Sea in the evening with 34 ft seas at 41S 159E (210 degs Fiji), then quickly faded. Swell hit Fiji on Fri-Sat (11/1). Limited filtered background energy to reach Hawaii too starting late Tues (11/4) at 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) continuing Wed (11/5) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft) from 216 degrees.  

And a second system developed right behind with 40 ft seas southwest of Tasmania on Wed AM at 55S 141E (2600 nmiles from Fiji on the 211 degree path).  It tracked east with seas fading from 36 ft Wed PM at 54S 151E  (2350 nmiles from Fiji on the 208 deg path). A quick fade followed.  Another small pulse of smaller swell to result for Fiji arriving noon on Sun (11/2) with period 20 secs and size tiny peaking near 8 AM Mon (11/3) at 4.8 ft @ 16-17 secs (7.5-8.0 ft). Swell Direction: 208-209 degrees. Limited size expected for Hawaii starting Thurs (11/6) at 1.1 ft @ 17-18 secs (2 ft) continuing on Fri (11/7) at 1.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 215 degrees    

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours yet a stronger and broader storm is to form just south of the Aleutians west of the dateline on Friday AM (11/7) in association with the developing extratropical remnants of Super Typhoon Nuri, with winds to 50+ kts from the west and seas on the increase. Northwest winds to build to 60-65 kts over a small area embedded in a large area of 50 kt northwest winds on the dateline and just south of the Aleutians moving to the Western Gulf with seas 36 ft at 50N 176E (330 degs HI, 307 degs NCal) and building quickly. By Sat AM (11/8) 65 kt winds to move north of the Aleutians and shadowed to the North Pacific with 45-50 kt west-northwest winds just south of the Aleutians aimed mainly at the US West Coast with sideband energy at Hawaii producing 41 ft seas at 46N 176W (340 degs HI, 308 degs NCal). 40 kt west-northwest winds to hold in the evening just south of the Aleutians in the Western Gulf generating 34 ft seas at 51N 170W (346 degs HI, 308 degs NCal). Sun AM (11/9) 35-40 kt westerly residual fetch to hold just south of the Eastern Aleutians with the core of the gale well up int the Eastern Bering Sea and shadowed by the Aleutians. Seas fading from 30 ft at 50N 174W (343 degs HI, 307 degs NCal). In the evening a new fetch of 35 kt west wind is to start building just west of the dateline and south of the Western Aleutians. Seas fading. 35 kt northwest fetch is to be pushing over the dateline Mon AM (11/10) with seas building some from 26 ft at 49N 180W (332 degs HI, 305 degs NCal).  That fetch is to fade in the evening with seas fading from 25 ft at 47N 170W while yet another fetch of 45 kt west winds build west of the dateline. That fetch to push over the dateline Tues AM (11/11) barely at 45 kts with seas 29 ft at 47N 179E. Fetch to fade from 30-35 kts from the northwest in the evening over a solid area with seas 25 ft at 47N 174W. All this is still quite unbelievable but bears watching. Something to monitor.  

MJO/ENSO Update
Note: The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equatorial Pacific it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slack if not an outright reversal of trade winds and enhanced precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the.cgianet. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to .cgiit resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) On Tuesday (11/3) the daily SOI was down some at -11.46. The 30 day average was dropping at -9.32 and the 90 day average was steady at -7.95. The near term trend based on the 30 day average was indicative of a steady weak Active Phase of the MJO. The longer term pattern was indicative of a steady-state Active Phase of the MJO. A weak low pressure cell was tracking east from a point south of Tahiti and is forecast holding into Thurs (11/6) with 30 day average SOI numbers expected to hold. A bit of a rise is to follow but then more low pressure is to be building southwest of Tahiti by Mon (11/10) with SOI numbers again falling.      

Current equatorial surface wind analysis indicated neutral anomalies over the Maritime Continent turning to light westerly anomalies on the dateline. Neutral anomalies were indicated south of Hawaii continuing to the Galapagos. A week from now (11/12) light east anomalies are forecast over the Maritime Continent continuing over the dateline then turning to modest westerly anomalies south of Hawaii continuing over the Galapagos. Down at the surface the TOA array indicated light east anomalies from 150E to 170W. 

Looking at the trend over the past few months there has not been a extended period of enhanced trades so far this year, and we're over 304 days into the year.  The trend is clearly towards westerly anomalies (suppressed trades) which suggests a bias towards El Nino. Big westerly wind bursts occurred Jan-April, followed by a neutral period May into early June. The TOA array surface sensors (the ground truth) indicated moderate westerly anomalies re-developed west of the dateline 6/25-7/6, then again 7/11-7/20, building into a WWB and holding through 8/10. Light westerly anomalies developed again 8/20-8/22, 8/29-9/2, 9/10-9/17, and stronger 9/20-10/8 (a WWB) west of the dateline with another 10/12-10/31 (WWB) on the dateline. Neutral anomalies filled the gaps. A modest Kelvin Wave is impacting the Galapagos associated with westerly anomalies during June, July into mid-August. And another Kelvin Wave is developing under the dateline region being fed by westerly anomalies in late October there. That's two WWBs over a 30 day window. Compared to La Nina where enhanced trades (20+ kts) would be blowing non-stop, we're in great shape and have been all year. No easterly anomalies of interest have occurred all year. It would be hard to make a case stating some flavor of weak El Nino was not in.cgiay at this point. 

See our new Kelvin Wave Generation Area monitoring model here .

The longer range Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) models (dynamic and statistical) run on 11/3 are in opposition. They both suggest a very weak Inactive Phase of the MJO pattern over the far West Pacific with a weak Active Phase in the Indian Ocean. The Statistic model depicts the weak Active Phase pushing east into the far West Pacific 15 days out. The Dynamic model has an Inactive Phase rebuilding 10 days out and building stronger 15 day out. The ultra long range upper level model run on 11/4 depicts a weak Active pulse in the far West Pacific pushing east through 11/24. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow tracking west to east  11/24 through 12/14. Recent experience this year suggests this model overhypes any projected Inactive Phases. The models are calibrated assuming a neutral global weather pattern, and typically either overcall weather events during La Nina and undercall then during El Nino in the Pacific Basin. This suggests that warming water in the equatorial East Pacific is starting to have some gentle guiding impact on the atmosphere above. The upper level model tends to be a leading indicator, with surface level anomalies lagging behind 1 week or more.    

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean.  As of the most recent low res imagery (11/3) a moderately warm water regime remains in control of the equatorial East Pacific, down some from the peak of the Kelvin Wave eruptions in late June in the east, but up some since early Sept and still building slowly. Warm pockets are moderating while tracking east between 90W to 140W, likely the result of the first of a pair of Kelvin Waves impacting the Galapagos region (as expected). TAO data suggests 0.5-1.0 deg C anomalies present from the Galapagos to 140W, fading to just below 0.5 degs west from there to the dateline. +1.0-2.0 deg C anomalies are present west of the dateline. Hi res data suggests a string of pockets of +1.0-2.0 deg anomalies from the Galapagos to the dateline (the new Kelvin Wave erupting there). It now appears warm water is building on the surface in the NINO 3.4 region based on TAO  and hi res imagery. 

Elsewhere, the entire North Pacific Ocean is full of warmer than normal water. There are virtually no signs of high pressure induced upwelling streaming southwest off California. And serious warm water is entrenched along the California coast and building in coverage, the exact opposite of the trend of the past 3+ years.This is significant in that is suggests the Gulf of Alaska High pressure system is much weakened relative to normal years, with north winds and upwelling much suppressed. The South Pacific is mostly normal/neutral except for cool water streaming off Southern Chile pushing west reaching up to the equator near 140W. The significant feature of late is that this pocket is in rapid decline and being r.cgiaced with normal if not slightly warmer than normal waters. Given this situation, it suggesting a warm regime is getting the upper hand over the entire Pacific Basin, rather than isolated only to the North Pacific as it has been most of this year. Overall the total amount of warmer than normal water in the North Pacific remains most impressive, while the South Pacific is starting to trend in the same direction.  

Subsurface Waters Temps on the equator continue solidly warm.  As of 11/4 a +1.0 C anomaly flow was filling the equatorial Pacific from 150 meters up and east of 150E with one embedded pocket of +4 deg anomalies at 155W pushing east embedded in with a steady stream of +2.0 deg anomalies pushing east from there into the Galapagos. This is good news in that it indicates the pipe is open and at least one if not two Kelvin Waves are in flight. The leading edge of the first Kelvin Wave is almost fully erupted over the Galapagos. Satellite data from 10/30 depicts a broad area of +5 cm anomalies are covering the entire equatorial Pacific from New Guinea to the Galapagos, indicative of mult.cgie Kelvin Waves in flight pushing east.  Other models collaborate the presumption of Kelvin Wave genesis. The latest chart of upper Ocean Heat Content (10/30) indicates the first modest Kelvin Wave has developed in the west reaching east to 100W but is making no easterly headway and now confirmed to be erupting to the surface there. A bit of a cooling followed (the presumable upwelling phase) and a new Kelvin wave started building back at 145E-160W in Sept and is now pushing east reaching to 160W (10/25). It is assumed steady light westerly anomalies and 2 recent WWBs events over the past 20 days are feeding more warm water into the pipe. At this time we are well over the proverbial 'hump' and some sort of warm event is underway. As the first of the pair of Kelvin Waves arrives at the Galapagos now, more warm water will reinforce the existing warm pool theoretically pushing things into minimal El Nino territory. And when the second Kelvin Wave pushes east (about 3 months from now or Jan 20) then we are set. Of course what is good enough to feed storm develop and what constitutes an official El Nino are two different things.  We are focused on the former. The quandary now is whether this will be a one year event, or something longer.    

Pacific Counter Current data as of 10/6 suggests an unchanged pattern. The current is pushing west to east over the entire Pacific north of the equator focused on the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) reaching into Central America. If anything it's moving into the moderate to strong category from the West Pacific to a point south of Hawaii. On and just south of the equator the current was generally pushing east to west in the moderate category. Anomaly wise - west anomalies were just north of the equator over the width of the equatorial Pacific strongest between 130E-170E and in pockets reaching to the Galapagos. There were no significant east anomalies indicated. This data suggests a somewhat mixed picture but continued slightly better than the last update and improving incrementally

Projections from the monthly CFSv2 model run 11/4 are stable. It suggests water temps are +0.5 deg C and are to hold between there and +0.65 degs through April 2015. But the real interesting part is that water temps are to start building from +0.8 degs in May 2015, pushing +1.4 degs C by July. This suggests that perhaps we are moving towards a multi-year warm event. See the chart based version here - link.

Analysis: A downwelling Kelvin Wave was generated and pushed east starting in Aug 2013, followed by a stronger one in Oct-Nov, and a massive one in Jan-April 2014. A weaker one followed in July with yet a modestly stronger one building under the dateline in October. The only interruptions have been when the upwelling phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle took over. Water temps in the Galapagos-Ecuador-Peru triangle have held remarkably consistent from May-June 2014 onward, even during upwelling phases. Continued suppressed trades with embedded weak westerly anomalies developed in the West Pacific in July and have held through present time producing the latest Kelvin Wave with +3 degs C in flight now. Water temps have held in the Galapagos triangle in the +1.5 degree range for several months now. Certainly there is nor has been any signs of easterly anomalies or a shut down of the Kelvin Wave pipe for better than a year now. This is a huge step forward.

Assuming westerly anomalies continue in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (west of the dateline), more warm water will migrate east. This seems reasonable seeing how there has been virtually no easterly anomalies this year. A 'normal' development life cycle favors the alternating 'downwelling/upwelling' Kelvin Wave cycle, which is what the Pacific seems to be favoring. See currently Upper Oceanic Heat Content chart here

At this point a teleconnection or feedback loop between the ocean and the atmosphere seems to be in.cgiay.  Evidence includes a total breakdown of the Gulf of Alaska high pressure system this summer, resulting in very high water temps off California. Also the early season recurving of mult.cgie tropical low pressure systems tracking northeast off Japan bound for the dateline.  And the pulse of tropical activity near Hawaii on the week of 8/4 and those systems continued evolution in the West Pacific is most telling. And then the near record pulse of tropical activity off Mexico (8/18-9/20) resulting in Lowell, Super Hurricane Marie, followed by Odile and Polo (though these last 2 produced no swell) and finally Rachel. And then even a few inches of snow in the Sierra on Sept 27 and again on Oct 15 and again in late Oct. The last time any of this happened was during the '97 and '83 El Ninos. And mult.cgie recurving tropical systems pushed off Japan reaching the Gulf of Alaska in October (Fengshen and Vongfong). And then one more recurving tropical system in November (Super Typhoon Nuri). The only argument against the feedback loop now is a weak west moving Pacific Counter Current (rather than flowing east).

About 3 months of undisturbed heating is required for the atmosphere to start responding on a global level where the point of 'no return' could be achieved from our perspective. The warm pool starting forming in earnest on 5/1, and so the atmosphere would not trip over the 'no-return' point till 8/1. We have passed that threshold. As of 9/2, all the arguments against a feedback loop being in.cgiace were gone except the Pacific Counter Current. 

Note that what we consider 'teleconnected' and what NOAA considers threshold El Nino conditions are two different things and serve different purposes. We are focused on monitoring weather events that contribute to the production of open ocean storms mainly in the Pacific Basin that may or may not have the same impacts as a full blown El Nino. So our criteria is certainly less than the threshold of NOAAs. That said, considering the size and duration of the westerly wind bursts in Jan-April, and the Kelvin Wave that preceded it, it seem hard to believe that at least some Pacific Basin wide 'change' was not already well entrenched even early this year, and had been developing since perhaps as early and Aug of 2013 (when the first Kelvin Wave of the series started taking shape). Monitoring the number, location and track of tropical systems in the North Pacific over October will help to put the final nail in coffin, though given the current track record, it is only a formality at this time. We will continue monitoring westerly wind anomalies and warm subsurface water buildup in and under the Kelvin Wave Generation area. Also monitoring of the NPac jetstream (which has already been productive) and Atlantic hurricane activity (which is nonexistent) are key. But at this time odds continue stacking up in favor that a global teleconnection is now established. If that's true, the focus then becomes estimating how deep the ENSO cycle will become, or whether it will stay shallow but transition into a multi-year event. At this time we're predisposed to the multiyear, Midoki scenario. And that is actually the better of all options.    

We are well past recharge mode, with cold water from the multiyear 2010-2013 La Nina cycle dispersed and temperatures on the rise. Officially we are still in a neutral ENSO atmospheric pattern, with no El Nino in.cgiay. But given all current signs, from a winter storm and swell production perspective, atmospheric transition is well underway.  Even if we never reach official El Nino status  this is a far better.cgiace than previous years (2010-2011, 2011-2012 and 2012-2013) under the direct influence of La Nina. 

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool and more details in the  El Nino Update Updated 12/4/13 

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. 

Details to follow...

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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Local Interest

Updated - Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (11/2) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTvhPDJ2wng&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
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Click here to learn more about Casa Noble Tequila! Casa Noble Tequila If you are looking for an exquisite experience in fine tequila tasting, one we highly recommend, try Case Noble. Consistently rated the best tequila when compared to any other. Available at BevMo (in California). Read more here: http://www.casanoble.com/

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's si.cgie and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet E.cgiorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml

Free Stormsurf Stickers - Get your free stickers! - More details Here

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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