On Sunday (11/6) Northern CA surf was head high and clean. South facing breaks were waist to chest high. Central California surf was waist to chest high+. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were up to waist high at the best breaks though most spots were smaller. The LA area southward into Orange County was waist high with a few sets to maybe chest high at the better breaks. Southward to San Diego waves were waist high. The North Shore of Oahu was less than waist high. The South Shore was maybe waist high. The East Shore was waist high.
Windswell from the Gulf of Alaska is serving North and Central California well in relative terms, but has totally bypassed Hawaii, forming east of the Islands. This has resulted in decent surf north of Point Conception in the head high plus range. In short, more of the same is expected through the workweek with another pulse on the way for Northern CA and 2 more gales forecast for the northeastern Gulf. But of far more interest to everyone is the expected development of a small storm over the dateline on Tuesday tracking east into the Gulf through the week. This could set everyone up with some rideable energy over the long haul. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Sunday (11/6) the jet continued pushing east off southern Japan to nearly the dateline, then took a beeline northeast to nearly the Aleutians before dipping south again in the eastern Gulf of Alaska and pushing inland over the Pacific Northwest. Windspeeds were below 130 kts over it's entire length and there was no indications of it supporting any storm activity at the surface. By Tuesday (11/8) a bit of a dip (through) is to develop over the dateline with the ridge pushing into the Gulf of Alaska with winds increasing to 150 kts. The ridge is to push into the Gulf and then dive south off California pushing inland over South CA. The trough is to become the feature of interest as it tracks slowly east with 130 kt winds circulating under it. By Friday the trough is to reach the Gulf of Alaska and hold there through the weekend, slowly fading. Continuing decent energy is to be pushing off Japan through this episode, but is to totally fade as it reaches the dateline suggesting that nothing is to develop right behind, though it looks like the jet wants to surge east off the Asian continent, but just can't quite get there.
Today at the surface high pressure at 1032 mbs was in control of the waters north of Hawaii centered over the Aleutians reaching southeast to Hawaii and right up to the California coast. This was providing a barrier for low pressure development in that area leaving only a small space in the northeastern Gulf of Alaska untouched and then another off Japan and the Kuril Islands. Low pressure at 1000 mbs was occupying the northeast Gulf generating a broad fetch of 35 to near 40 kt winds centered at 54N 141W pushing south towards CA down the 315 degree great circle path. Seas forecast building again to 20 ft by evening. This to fade late Monday morning (11/7) but not before yet another pulse of decent windwell is set in motion moving towards the Pacific Northwest and exposed breaks in California.
On Monday (11/7) the blocking high is to sink southeast towards California and one last small low is to start riding over the top of the high, generating yet another batch of 30-35 kts west winds and 20 ft seas aimed best at the Pacific Northwest. After that a new almost-storm is forecast to be developing over the dateline (see Dateline Storm below) .
See QuikCAST for details.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Potential Dateline Storm
On Sunday (11/6) a small and weak low pressure system was near the dateline tracking north towards the Aleutians whilst high pressure blocked it's path to the east. The faintest bit of 35-40 kts winds were confirmed at 44N 168E aimed down the 319 degree path to Hawaii.
On Monday (11/7) this low is to start building and by nightfall it's core is to be centered right over the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutians with pressure 980 mbs. Winds forecast at 40-45 kts centered at 47N 178W providing a small 300 nmiles long fetch dangling south of the Aleutians aimed best at Hawaii down the 334 degree great circle path. Seas building to 25 ft.
On Tuesday AM (11/8) things to start getting somewhat interesting as the core of the low falls south of the Aleutians and starts tracking east. Pressure to be 984 mbs with a small but solid fetch of 45-50 kts winds develops centered at 46N 174W aimed at Hawaii down the 336 degree path but taking much better aim at the US West coast up the 301 degree path. Seas building to 30 ft at 47N 174W. In the evening the fetch is to drop more to the southeast with winds fading some to 40-45 kts centered at 44N 165W aimed mid-way between Hawaii and California (347 HI, 296 NCal).
On Wednesday (11/9) the fetch is to start expanding while tracking east with the core of the system now firmly planted in the northern Gulf of Alaska and interacting with a 1028 mb high centered well west of the Southern CA coast. Pressure in the low at 980 mbs. Winds forecast at 45-50 kts again centered at 45N 157W with all fetch aimed due east or right up the 297-298 degree great circle path to North CA (302 SCal) but 75 degrees east of any route to HAwaii. Seas forecast at 30 ft centered at 44N 160W. In the evening storm pressure to drop to 972 mbs (officially it will be a strong gale) with 45-50 kts winds continuing centered at 47N 145W aimed due east or right up the 301 degree path to NCal (307 SCal). Seas up to 32 ft centered at 45N 150W.
On Thursday (11/10) the system to hold in the Gulf with pressure up to 976 mbs and winds 35-45 kts totally filling the Gulf covering everything north of 45N. They are to be aimed right down the 310 degree path to North CA (315+ SCal). Seas forecast at 31 ft over a broad area centered at 47N 140W. By evening another pocket of winds are forecast building back to 40-45 kts off the Aleutians in the Gulf at 52N 150W aimed well down the 311 degree path to NCal (315 SCal) producing seas of 30 ft at 50N 148W.
This system to slowly wind down through the day Friday (11/11) but with 30 ft seas continuing but on the northmost edge of the North CA swell window, but well within the Pacific Northwest window.
Rough data suggests that potential moderately large swell with period in the 14-17 sec range could result, but that's just idle speculation at this time seeing how this system hasn't even really started forming yet. Watch the models using the links above for reatime updates.
California Offshore Forecast
On Sunday (11/6) high pressure continued north of Hawaii up to the Aleutians and ridging east almost to the California coast while low pressure controlled the northeast Gulf of Alaska, with the dividing line located at North Oregon. By Monday the high is to start rapidly sinking southeast with a front pushing through the San Francisco Bay Area late morning and the high building in fast behind it. The result is to be north winds over the outer waters (at least - if not nearshore) through Wednesday adding piles of short period lump to the windswell expected. Some form of the high is to continue off the coast through Saturday (11/12) with 20 kt or great north winds expected over out waters (20 nmiles offshore) from Pt Conception northward with the worst of it north of Pt Reyes (so Central CA might be a little less affected at times). Still, it's not looking nearly as placid as the pattern that has dominated for the past few weeks.
The 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.
On Sunday (11/6) the models depict yet another pulse of energy to be pushing under New Zealand by Monday (11/7) with pressure 972 mbs and winds 35-40 kts with embedded area to near 45 kts for near 24 hours generating 25-27 ft seas aimed well at Hawaii and continuing at lesser levels through Thursday (11/10) with 30-40 kts winds at 25 ft seas. If this develops yet another batch of utility class swell could push north towards Hawaii. Take what you can get cause this is likely the last one.
On Tuesday through Thursday (11/1-11/3) a moderate 964 mb gale low pushed under New Zealand with 30-35 kt fetch aimed northeast producing seas modeled at 28 ft. This was the culmination of 2 previous days of lesser fetch and seas and has produced some degree of decent summer time utility swell pushing north towards Hawaii with period in the 14-16 sec range. This system dissipated on Friday (11/4). Swell arrival expected along Hawaii's South Shore on Thursday (11/10) with swell possibly up to 3 ft @ 16 secs late (4-5 ft faces).
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a calm pattern to persist over the greater North Pacific (other than the storm mentioned above) until Saturday (11/12). Then low pressure is to start pushing off Japan and developing with pressure dropping to 992 mbs and winds forecast at 55-60 kts over a tiny area building to 60-65 kts centered near 40N 165E. Also a second weaker low is to be east of this system and over the dateline at 1004 mbs, suggesting a clear path to the east for additional development. It's way to early to have any hope of this actually happening, but the trend looks encouraging for this region for the first time this season. Hawaii should monitor this trend.
At the surface beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of any sort is projected.
Details to follow...
Sharks, Sharks and more Sharks: Want to know all the details of every shark encounter over the past few months in California? You can read all about it in the fascinating chronology produced be the Shark Research Committee. There's alot more going on in our waters than you could ever have imagined (or ever wanted to know). http://www.sharkresearchcommittee.com/pacific_coast_shark_news.htm
Stormsurf Weather Model Update: Over the weekend (10/30) we moved new new code into production that should dramatically improve the efficiency and reliability of our weather models. We've had problems with them not keeping in-sync with the wave models. Hopefully that problem is now resolved though we're still dependent on NOAA data servers just like everyone else. What this fix does do is provide the infrastructure now to rapidly expand our offering of weather models, enabling more detailed global coverage. We will be working on that as time permits.
Rob Gilley Photgraphy: Please take amoment to check out the selection of limited print images availabe at Rob Gilleys webite. All images in the 2005 line were taken by Rob Gilley, an 19 year Surfer Magazine staff photographer, and are personally signed and numbered by him: http://www.pacificsurfgallery.com
Tutorial on the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Presented by Dr. Roland Madden: If you're interested in El Nino and the MJO, have a basic understanding of El Nino, and you have broadband connection, audio and Macromedia Flash installed, then the following presentation is a must see. Dr Madden present a great overview of how the MJO works. And there's nothing like hearing it straight from the founders mouth. Link here: http://meted.ucar.edu/climate/mjo/mjonav0.htm
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table