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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, November 12, 2017 1:12 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.5 - California & 2.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 11/13 thru Sun 11/19

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Steady NW Windswell To Emanate from the Gulf
SHemi Swell Fading

BUOY ROUNDUP

On Sunday, November 12, 2017 :

  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.0 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 11.6 secs from 7 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 14.4 secs from 200 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northeast at 8-10 kts. Water temperature 65.8 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 1.3 ft @ 14.8 secs from 188 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.5 ft @ 14.8 secs from 202 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 2.2 ft @ 15.1 secs from 212 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.9 ft @ 14.8 secs from 195 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 15.4 secs with southern hemi swell 3.5 ft @ 15 secs from 190 degrees. Wind at the buoy was south at 6 kts. Water temp 59.4 degs.


Notes:
Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (11/12) in North and Central CA residual Gulf windswell was producing waves at chest high and clean and rideable but nothing great. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and clean but weak. At Santa Cruz southern hemi swell was producing waves at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up with some power and clean but slow. In Southern California up north set waves were waist high with maybe a few chest high peaks and clean and rideable. In North Orange Co set waves were head high to maybe a little overhead on the bigger sets and lined up and clean. In South Orange country best breaks were 1 ft overhead and lined up and clean but slow. In San Diego surf was chest to head high and lined up and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was getting north swell at chest to shoulder high with some bigger peaks and clean but soft. The South Shore was thigh to waist high and clean but with sideshore lump running through it. The East Shore was getting north swell at shoulder to head high and nearly chopped early from easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (11/12) residual swell from a gale previously in the Gulf of Alaska last week was fading in Hawaii. Southern hemi swell from a gale that formed in the Central South Pacific on Wed (11/1) producing 27 ft seas aimed northeast then rebuilt Thurs (11/2) producing 34 ft seas over a small area aimed northeast was hitting California but past it's peak. A small gale developed just west of the dateline on Sat (11/11) producing up to 26 ft seas aimed southeast towards Hawaii. A low pressure system fell south through the Gulf of Alaska on Sat (11/11) producing 17 ft seas aimed south and is forecast to pulse off Oregon on Mon (11/130 with up to 30 ft seas. Another gale is forecast to fall southeast through the Gulf Mon-Tues (11/14) producing 18 ft seas targeting the Pacific Northwest down into Central CA. another gale is to follow a similar track on Fri-Sat (11/18) with 18 ft seas targeting mainly Hawaii. The South Pacific is asleep now. An unseasonably calm pattern is in control both north and south driven by the Inactive Phase of the MJO and is expected to hold for the next several weeks.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday AM (11/12) the jetstream was pushing off North Japan with winds to 130 kts reaching half way to the dateline then splitting with the northern branch ridging hard north up over the West Bering Sea then turning east north of there tracking into Alaska. From there is bulged south off the North Canadian coast forming a backdoor trough being fed by only 90 kt winds offering support for low pressure development in lower levels of the atmosphere before tracking northeast up into Southern Oregon. The southern branch was weak pushing east to the dateline then splitting with most energy tracking east eventually pushing into the Pt Conception CA area. Over the next 72 hours
through Wed (11/15) more of the same is forecast with energy falling into the backdoor trough building Mon-Tues (11/14) to 120 kts offering better support for gale development in the extreme Northeast Gulf then fading some and easing east into Wednesday. To the west a major split in the jet is to continue with the split point near 165E. Beyond 72 hours more of the same is forecast but with another backdoor trough forecast forming over the Northern Gulf on Fri (11/17) being fed by 120 kts winds falling south reaching down to 35N on Sun (11/19) and the trough steep and starting to pinch off. This split jet/backdoor Gulf trough pattern is well embedded now and will not change until some major source of energy is infused into the jetstream to alter its path.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (11/12) a weak pressure and wind pattern was in effect other than low pressure that was fading in the North Gulf of Alaska associated with a backdoor low pressure system (see Backdoor Gulf Low). Also residual low pressure from a gale in the far West Pacific was fading (see West Pacific Mini-Gale below)

Over the next 72 hours another fetch is to develop in the Eastern Gulf on Mon PM (11/13) producing 30 kt northwest winds and seas 18 ft at 50N 144W. Northwest fetch is to continue Tues AM (11/14) at 25-30 kts off the Pacific Northwest producing 16-17 ft seas at roughly 45N 140W targeting the US West Coast. Fetch is to hold into the evening with 16 ft seas at 42N 135W falling southeast. This system is to slowly fade from there. Windswell is likely for North and Central CA Tues-Fri (11/17) with period in the 11 secs range.

Backdoor Gulf Low
Another weak backdoor trough/low pressure system developed in the Northern Gulf on Sat AM (11/11) producing 25-30 kt northwest winds over a small area falling southeast. That fetch fell south in the evening to a point well off Oregon with 30 kt north winds and 17 ft seas at 46N 150W aimed mainly at Hawaii. This system fell southeast on Sun AM (11/12) while dissipating with north winds 25-30 kts and seas fading from 17 ft at 46N 147W aimed like before. Maybe some sideband windswell to result mainly for Hawaii.

A secondary fetch of 20-25 kt northeast winds are to develop just north of Hawaii on Tues-Wed (11/15) associated with high pressure there producing windswell hitting Hawaii on Wed (11/15) at 5 ft @ 10-11 secs (5.-6 ft) from 10 degrees.

Also secondary fetch from this trough is to develop off Southern Oregon on Sun PM (11/12) with west winds 30 kts and seas building. By Mon AM (11/13) 45+ kt west winds are forecast just off the Central Oregon coast with 22 ft seas at 44N 132W. Fetch is to build to near 50 kts mid-day then moving into the Oregon coast in the evening with 30 ft seas at 44N 128W all shadowed from Pt Reyes southward. Raw swell is possible for extreme North CA though late Mon (11/13) into Tues AM (11/14).

 

West Pacific Mini-Gale
On Fri PM (11/10) a gale developed in the West Pacific just west of the dateline and pretty far south generating 35-40 kt northwest winds aimed decently at Hawaii with seas building at 35N 168E. On Sat AM (11/11) 40 kt northwest winds were building aimed well west with 24 ft seas over a small area at 34N 170E. In the evening 35 kt west winds were fall southeast with 26 ft seas moving east to 32.5N 172E still targeting Hawaii. Fetch is to dissipate Sun AM (11/12) with 21 ft seas fading at 33N 175E. Small swell is possible moving towards Hawaii.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Tues PM (11/14) building to 2.8 ft @ 14 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Wed AM (11/15) from 2.2 ft @ 13 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 305 degrees

 

Backdoor Gulf Gale
A small gale started developing in the extreme Northern Gulf of Alaska on Mon AM (11/6) generating a tiny area of 40 kt north winds with seas building. In the evening the gale built some more producing a broader area of 40 kt north winds while falling south with seas to 26 ft at 51N 148W (316 degs NCal). On Tues AM (11/7) north winds were 35-40 kts over a better sized area off British Columbia with 28 ft seas at 49N 148W (311 degs NCal). In the evening fetch is to continue falling south-southeast at 40 kts and a bit better organized with seas building to 28 ft at 46N 147W (306 degs NCal). The gale is to be off the CA-Oregon border Wed AM (11/8) tracking east with northwest winds 35 kts and seas 27 ft at 42N 144W (294 degs NCal). The gale is to fade from there with west winds 30 kts in the evening just off North CA and 23 ft seas at 39N 136W (288 degs NCal). Possible northwest angled swell to result for Oregon down into CA late in the workweek but likely accompanied by weather. Sideband swell is possible for Hawaii late in the workweek too. Something to monitor.

Hawaii (Oahu): Expect swell arrival on Thurs (11/9) pushing 3.0 ft @ 16 secs at sunset (4.8 ft). On Fri (11/10) swell is to peak mid-morning at 5.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (7.0 ft) holding decently through sunset. Swell fading Sat AM (11/11) from 3.9 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (11/12) fading from 3.0 ft @ 11-12 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 10-15 degrees.

North CA: Swell arrived on Thurs (11/9) and is to peak mid-day pushing 8.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (10 ft) from 310 degrees and lesser period energy from 290 degrees. Swell fading Fri (11/10) from 6.2 ft @ 11-12 secs (7.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (11/11) fading from 4.8 ft @ 10 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction 287 & 310 degrees

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Sunday (11/12) low pressure at 1004 mbs was 600 nmiles west of Oregon generating a weak 15 kt southwest flow from Cape Mendocino northward and a mixed light wind pattern south of there. southwest winds to build down to Pt Reyes in the evening with rain building southward over North CA through the evening reaching the Golden Gate Monday AM (11/13) with sprinkles down to Santa Cruz late afternoon. Southwest winds 15 kts are forecast north of Pt Arena on Monday and light winds south of there. Light rain for Tahoe overnight turning to snow early morning Tuesday for a few hours. Tuesday (11/14) another front stalls over the Oregon-Ca border with south winds for Cape Mendocino at 20 kts and north winds 20 kts for Pt Conception. No rain for the state but light rain for Cape Mendocino builds Tuesday evening. Wednesday the front pushes south from Cape Mendocino to Big Sur late afternoon with south winds 15 kts followed by west winds behind the front at 15 kts. Rain builds south Wednesday from Pt Arena down to Big Sur after sunset. A more solid snow event start building for the entire Sierra starting Wednesday evening peaking Thurs AM (11/16) then slowly fading Thurs night. West to northwest winds 15 kts through the day for all of North and CA down to Monterey Bay but light south of there. High pressure is to be ridging weakly into North CA by Fri AM (11/17) with a light offshore wind pattern possible and no rain forecast. Low pressure queues up off the coast Sat (11/18) with south to southeast winds from Monterey bay northward building to 20-25 kts for Pt Arena northward by sunset. Rain expected from Morro Bay northward well after sunset. Light rain for Tahoe. Sunday south wind continues from San Francisco northward with light rain for the same area.

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis  
On Sunday (11/12) swell from a gale that tracked through the South Central Pacific was hitting California (see South Central Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Central Pacific Gale
A gale developed in the deep Central South Pacific on Tues PM (10/31) producing a small area of 40 kt southwest winds with seas starting to build. On Wed AM (11/1) south winds built in coverage at 35-40 kts aimed north with seas to 26 ft at 48S 150W over a small area. Fetch is to track east in the evening at 35 kts with 26 ft seas moving to 46S 143W. On Thurs AM (11/2) fetch was rebuilding with south winds near 50 kts and seas 27 ft over a building area at 48S 135W targeting California well. Fetch is to be falling southeast and having less coverage in the evening at barely 45 kts with seas 33 ft over a tiny area retreating from 50S 130W. On Fri AM (11/3) secondary fetch of 30-35 kts is to be feeding into the gales core from the southwest and seas building to 24 ft at 47S 130W aimed northeast well. In the evening that fetch is to build to 45 kts well to the north over a tiny area with seas 30 ft over a small area at 40N 130W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (11/4) a tiny area of 45-50 kt west winds are to hold while tracking east with seas building to 31 ft over a small area at 42S 118W and starting to move out of the CA swell window targeting mainly Chile and Peru. Beyond this system is to be tracking east and out of the CA swell window targeting mainly Chile. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Swell fading Sun (11/12) from 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (11/13) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

North CA: Swell fading Sun (11/12) from 3.0 ft @ 15 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (11/13) from 2.5 ft @ 14 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours yet another backdoor gale is forecast in the North Gulf on Thurs PM (11/16) producing a broader area of 30-35 kt north winds with seas building. by Fri AM (11/17) 30 kt north winds are to be in the Gulf falling south targeting Hawaii well with 18 ft seas at 47N 153W. Fetch is to fall south in the evening and fade from 25 kts over a broad area with 16 ft seas fading at 44N 153W. Something to monitor.


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

More details to follow...

 

La Nina Solid - Cool Pool Locked-In

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. So it appears now a double dip La Nina is setting up and is to continue through the Winter and Spring of 2017-2018.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Sat (11/11) the 5 day average indicated east winds were over the entire equatorial Pacific and the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were light over the East Pacific but moderate easterly from 150W extending over the entire KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/12) Moderate east anomalies were modeled over the core of the KWGA. East anomalies are to slowly weaken and move east and out of the KWGA by the end of the model run on 11/18. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is in control but expected to fade a week out.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: As of 11/11 a modest Active/Wet MJO pattern was developing in the West Pacific. The statistical model depicts the Inactive Phase holding if not easing east slightly through the end of the model run 15 days out. The dynamic model depicts the Active Phase fading 8 days out with a neutral pattern taking control thereafter.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/12) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was very weak over the far West Pacific and is to hold there for the next 2 weeks. The GEFS model suggests much the same but weakening more a week out.
40 day Upper Level Model: (11/12) This model depicts a weak Active/Wet pattern fading over the East Pacific and is to be gone moving east of Central America 11/27. A weak Inactive/Dry Phase is to develop in the far West Pacific 11/27 and is to push east into Central America through 12/22. A weak Active/Wet pattern is to follow moving into the West Pacific 12/17 and pushing east through the end of the model run on 12/22. This model runs about 1 week ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (11/12) This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO was weakly building over the West KWGA with weak east anomalies in control of the core of the KWGA but expected to fade in 5 days. The Inactive Phase is to continue building east and hold through 12/19 but with a weak anomaly pattern exhibited. Finally the Active Phase of the MJO is to develop in the far West Pacific 12/18 and building with west anomalies in the KWGA 12/30 then building steadily through 1/23/18. After that the Inactive Phase is to again develop 1/31 and building east through the end of the model run 2/9. The low pass filter indicates a modest El Nino/low pressure signal over the extreme west KWGA and it is to ease east filling the KWGA by 1/28. A La Nina/high pressure signal is over the East KWGA at 170E and is to move east into the East Pacific and no longer in the KWGA by Jan 1. If this verifies, the underpinnings of La Nina are to be fading and then gone by late December. This suggest that as winters builds (typically the peak of La Nina in the jan timeframe), support for La Nina will be fading. But it takes 3 months for the ocean to respond to whatever happens in the atmosphere, so this winter is lost to La Nina regardless of what the low pass filter indicates. No significant oceanic change is expected until likely early April 2018. Even at that it will take about 5 years for the Pacific to recharge from the 2014-16 El Nino before another El Nino develops. So a neutral ENSO pattern is likely to develop.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/12) A pattern change set up in August, with warm water retreating to the west and cooler water building in the east. Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 29 degs centered at 160E with a hint of 30 degs temp creeping in from the west. The 28 deg isotherm line has retrograded heavily to 175W. The 24 deg isotherm is weak at 133W today and shallow at 60 meters deep at 140W. Anomaly wise a clear change is present in the East Pacific with warm water gone and instead neutral to modestly negative temperatures are at the surface and down to -4 degs C down 100 meters at between 130-150W indicative of La Nina. Warm anomalies are isolated to the West Pacific at +2.0 degrees down to 100 meters deep with the dividing line between cool at 155W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/4 depicts a large area of subsurface cool water filling the East Pacific (-4.0 degs) and erupting to the surface in broad pockets between 90W to 160W with a near neutral temperature pattern in the west.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/4) Negative anomalies are in control at -5 cms over the entire equatorial Pacific with a core of -10 cm anomalies present between Ecuador to 150W.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (11/11) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a clear cool pattern has developed. Upwelling continues solidly along Peru and Ecuador then tracking west on the equator out to 140W. The cool pool continues west from there but not as strong. No warm anomalies are indicated within 3+ degs north or south of the equator over the entire region.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/10): A neutral to warming trend was along Peru. But a cooling trend remains indicated starting just off the Galapagos continuing west to 140W. It looks like La Nina is still pulsing.
Hi-res Overview: (11/10) A clear La Nina cool stream is present starting off Southern Chile pushing north up Peru and building in coverage, then turning northwest off Ecuador tracking west over the Galapagos and building out to 150W and stronger than days past. Weak cool anomalies continued west from there out to 180W. Cool water at depth is erupting to the surface with the breach point near the Galapagos. There is no sign of warm anomalies in the Nino 1.2 or Nino3.4 regions.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/12) Today's temps were falling slightly to -1.924, warmer than the -2.248 low point reached 3 days ago (11/5) and that was lower than the previous coldest point reached on 10/11 at -1.9 degs.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (11/12) temps were steady at -0.814 a little above the lowest temp reached so far at -1.1 on 11/23. The long arc suggests a steadying pattern. La Nina is in control.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/12) The forecast has temps falling steadily from -0.5 in early Oct to -1.05 in late Dec and holding through Jan. Then the trend is to turn upwards reaching -0.5 in April and -0.1 degs in July 2018. This suggests a legit La Nina is expected for the Winter of 2017-2018. The CFS SST images (10/13) continues to suggest a moderate La Nina cool pattern building on the equator off the Galapagos into Feb 2018. A full on La Nina is setting up.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Oct Plume updated (11/7) depicts temps forecast to fade -0.7 degs in Oct and holding through Dec, then slowly rising from there turning neutral in April 2018. See chart here - link  The NMME consensus for Oct average indicates temps -0.85 degrees below normal Nov-Jan 2018 then rebounding to normal in April. It sure looks like La Nina is on the way. The CFSv2 is now in the middle of that pack.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (11/12): The daily index was falling at 0.19. The 30 day average was falling at 6.98. The 90 day average was falling slightly at +8.01. This suggests a turn towards La Nina.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (11/12) The index was steady at -1.12 (up from -2.20 on 6/28/17). The trend is stable for now. Last years La Nina reached -1.94 on 11/2/16 so we've bested that already. But the recent upward trend is offering some hope. Still it looks like La Nina is returning for a double dip/2 year La Nina (not unusual). This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly negative, but not as much as one would expect with La Nina in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.10, Feb = +0.04, March = +0.12, April=+0.52, May=+0.30, June=+0.19, July= -0.50, Aug= -0.68, Sept = -0.28, Oct=-0.60. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10, Aug=0.09, Sept = 0.32. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (11/12): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17Cc_QSmVzQ&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
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POWERLINES Night at the OPL - Surf Footage Featuring Mavericks from Powerlines Productions plus live music from 6 to 8 PM- Nov 17, 2017. Video starts at 8:15 PM at the Old Princeton Landing (OPL) in Half Moon Bay/Princeton CA.

Titans of Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

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Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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