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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, December 17, 2013 9:43 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
Swell Potential Rating = 3.0 - California & 4.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 12/16 thru Sun 12/22
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Storm #2 Building West of Dateline
A Lesser System To Follow Tracking Off Japan

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday
(12/17) North and Central CA surf was fading from 1-2 ft overhead and clean and well lined up with light offshores. Down in Santa Cruz surf was chest high with some bigger sets and clean. In Southern California up north surf was waist high with chest high peaks and well lined up and clean. Down south waves were chest high, lined up and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was getting new dateline swell at 2 ft overhead and clean. The South Shore was flat. Exposed breaks on the East Shore were getting east windswell at chest high and chopped from trades.  

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
Swell from a gale that developed on the dateline Wed (12/12) then turned it's energy east Thurs-Fri (12/13) producing 34-38 ft seas was fading in California. Small swell from a tiny gale on the dateline Sat (12/14) with 25 ft seas was hitting Hawaii. A solid gale is developing in the far West Pacific Tues (12/17) with seas modeled to 42 ft targeting primarily Hawaii with sideband energy possible for the US West Coast. And another smaller system is forecast tracking east from Japan Sat (12/21) with seas to 42 ft, but fading well before even reaching the dateline. A little taste of winter energy is starting to make a showing. 
    

Details below...

Note: NDBC has issued a schedule to start repairing buoys as of 11/12/13. Unfortunately no buoys of interest to California are scheduled through September 2014. TOA Array (El Nino Monitoring) buoys are set for maintenance in April 2014.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream  - On Tuesday (12/17) the jetstream was tracking solidly off Japan with 200kts winds falling into a trough just west of the dateline. Excellent support for gale if not storm development indicated. The jet split east of there with most energy following the northern branch of the jet pushing up into British Columbia while the southern branch eased south of Hawaii and pushed on to the equator. No support for gale development was indicated east of the dateline. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough is to ease east into Wednesday (12/18) holding together well and continuing to support low pressure down at lower elevations of the atmosphere  while much energy starts pushing up into the northern branch of the jet over the East Pacific forming a strong ridge pushing up into the British Columbian coast supporting high pressure down at the surface. The trough on the dateline to slowly fade into Fri (12/20). Beyond 72 hours another pocket of wind energy is to build just east of Japan into Sun (12/22) with winds to 170 kts forming a bit of a trough west of the dateline pushing east providing support for gale development.  The trough to start washing out 24 hours later  but a solid pocket of 150+ kt winds to hold between Japan and the dateline offering gale development support beyond

Surface Analysis  - On Tuesday (12/17) weak high pressure at 1024 mbs was off the US West Coast setting up light winds and warm temps. But west of there a large gale was filling the entire Western Pacific (see Large Dateline Gale below).  Also modest swell from a small system previously over the dateline was peaking in Hawaii and to be fading fast on Wed (12/18). Over the next 72 hours the Large Dateline Gale is to be the only system of interest.  

Large Dateline Gale (Storm #2)
On Sun (12/15) a broad gale was developing east of Japan with winds in the 30-35 kt range streaming east off Japan halfway to the dateline late. Seas built to 24 ft at 33N 154E targeting Hawaii somewhat. Fetch continued to build Monday AM with a solid pocket of 40 kt northwest winds. Seas built to 28 ft at 33N 165E targeting Hawaii somewhat. Northwest fetch built in the evening to 45-50 kts aimed well at Hawaii with seas to 38 ft up at 36N 157E targeting Hawaii. 40-45 kt west winds continued Tues AM (12/17) over a solid area with 40 ft seas modeled at 32N 162E (296 degs HI and barely not shadowed by Kauai relative to Oahu, 290 degs NCal, 297 degs SCal). By evening the gale is to be holding with fetch still 40-45 kts and seas 41 ft at 31N 171E (297 degs HI and not shadowed relative to Oahu, 284 degs NCal and not really aimed there). Fetch fading Wed AM (12/18) just west of the dateline from 40-45 kts but displaced north some with seas fading from 34 ft at 33N 178E (302 degs HI and 1400 nmiles out, 283 degs NCal and aimed a little better there, 288 degs SCal).  35 kt west fetch is to be fading in the evening with seas fading from 34 ft at 34N 177E (306 degs HI, 287 degs NCal). The model has stabilized and it looks like solid swell will result for Hawaii with lesser size and less direct energy for the US West Coast.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival starting Thurs (12/19) after sunset with period 21 secs and size building fast. Swell to continue up overnight and peaking as period hits 18 secs a bit before sunrise Fri (12/20). Pure swell to be 9.3-9.8 ft @ 18 secs (17-18 ft Hawaiian with bigger sets) and size hold as period transitions to 17 secs mid-afternoon. Swell Direction: 296-300 degrees.  Swell fading Saturday (12/21) from 9 ft @ 16 sec early (14 ft Hawaiian) down to 7.5 ft @ 15 secs late (11 ft). Swell fading from 6 ft @ 13 secs (7-8 ft faces) on Sun (12/22). Decent Consistency.     

Northern CA:  Rough data suggests swell arrival Sat (12/21) at sunset with period 21 secs and perhaps barely rideable. Swell to start peaking Sunday AM (12/22) at 6 ft @ 18 secs  (11 ft) and maddeningly inconsistent. Much variability between sparse sets. Period dropping to 17 secs at sunset. Swell fading Monday (12/23) from 6 ft @ 16 secs (9.5 ft). Tues (12/24) residuals dropping from 4.5 ft @ 14 secs  (6 ft). Swell Direction: 283-287 degrees

Southern CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival late Saturday (12/21) near 8 PM with period 22 secs and size slowly building. Period to turn to 20 secs near 8 AM Sun (12/22) with size rideable 2.4 ft @ 20 secs (5 ft faces) and coming up steadily, peaking near sunset at 2.8 ft @ 18-19 secs (5 ft with bigger sets) and holding over night. Swell to still be 3.1 ft @ 17 secs (5 ft) at sunrise Mon (12/23) then tapering a little late afternoon. Tues (12/24) AM swell fading from 2.7 ft @ 16 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 288-295 degrees   

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropics
No tropical systems of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (12/17) modest high pressure at 1028 mbs was well off the coast with a light offshore wind pattern in play over California. A light to calm flow is expected early Wed (12/18) but winds turning northerly everywhere north of Pt Conception late and up to 30 kts for Cape Mendocino. By Thurs (12/19) high pressure is to build strong filling the Gulf at 1034 mbs with low pressure inland setting up a local pressure gradient with 35+ kt north winds forecast over all of North and Central CA with 25 kt northwest winds wrapping into Southern CA late. Friday the gradient to relax but 20 kt north winds are still forecast for North and Central CA dropping to 10 kts for Southern CA. A weak wind pattern to take over Saturday other than 25 kt north winds isolated near Pt Arena. By Sunday (12/22) a light wind flow is forecast for the state continuing into Christmas morning. There's remains a forecast of 2 inches of snow for Tahoe and light liquid precipitation for Southern CA ahead of the gradient on Thurs (12/19).  

South Pacific

Overview
Surface  - No swell producing weather systems were in play.  Over the next 72 hours no swell producing gale activity is forecast aimed up into our forecast area. 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 a small gale is projected developing off Japan on Friday evening (12/20) tracking east producing a tiny area of 45 kt west winds and seas to 38 ft at 37N 154E targeting Hawaii and California. On Sat AM (12/21) 45 kt west winds to hold pushing flat east with seas building to 42 ft at 38N 161E (305 degs HI, 296 degs NCal). 40-45 kt west winds to ease east into the evening generating 38 ft seas at 38N 168E (307 degs HI, 294 degs NCal).  The gale to start fading Sun AM (12/22) with winds down to 40 kts and seas fading from 34 ft at 40N 170E (312 degs Hi, 295 degs NCal). The gale to hold in the evening with 40 kt west winds and 33 ft seas up at 40N 174E (314 degs HI, 294 degs NCal).  The gale is to be fading out Mon AM (12/23) with only a small are of 40 kt west winds remaining and seas dropping from 34 ft over a small area up at 43N 177E (321 degs HI, 296 degs NCal)  Something to monitor.

MJO/ENSO Update
Note: The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equatorial Pacific it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slack if not an outright reversal of trade winds and enhanced precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

As of Tuesday (12/17) the daily Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was up to 13.34. The 30 day average was up to at 7.81 and the 90 day average was falling from 2.90.  The nearterm trend based on the SOI was indicative of a weak Inactive Phase of the MJO. The longer term pattern was just above neutral territory suggestive of the Inactive Phase of the MJO also. The SOI tends to be a lagging indicator running a week behind surface level weather trends, so the move into positive readings is not unexpected.   

Current equatorial surface wind analysis indicated modest east anomalies over the Maritime Continent extending over the dateline and continuing to a point south of Hawaii before fading to neutral east of there and continuing into Central America. A week from now (12/25) modest easterly anomalies are forecast over the Maritime Continent fading to light or even neutral over the dateline and turning fully neutral south of Hawaii on into Central America. In all this suggests the Inactive Phase of the MJO is over the West Pacific and is slowly fading (per the dynamic model).      

The longer range models (dynamic and statistical) run on 12/16 continue at odds with each other. Both models suggest a modest Inactive Phase was established over the West Pacific centered near the dateline. The statistic model suggests the Inactive Phase is to slowly dissipate while easing east over the next 15 days while the Active Phase of the MJO moves from the Indian Ocean into the far West Pacific 8 days out and takes over 15 days out. This is the optimistic outlook. The dynamic model is more conservative suggesting the Inactive Phase has already peaked on the dateline and is to quickly dissipate 5-7 days from now, but is to give up no ground, with it's remnants locked over the dateline keeping the Active Phase bottled up in the Indian Ocean for the next 15 days. The Active Phase is to die there. This would be bad if it were to occur. The ultra long range upper level model updated on 12/17 suggests support for the Inactive Phase is gone, with a weak Active Phase pushing into the West Pacific 12/22 and slowly tracking east into Jan 6 moving over the East Pacific at that time. In parallel a new weak Inactive Phase is to set up in the west on Jan 11 easing east and moving into the mid-Pacific 1/26 with a new Active Phase building behind it.  The upper level model tends to be a leading indicator, with surface level anomalies lagging behind 1 week or more.  

The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. As of now (12/16) a completely neutral water temp pattern covers the equator from Central America to the Philippines if not biased on the warm side of neutral (+0.25 degs C). This is the best we've seen in quite a while. A weak tongue of warmer than normal water started developing over the East Pacific mid-October in sync with a building Active Phase of the MJO. Some slight erosion occurred thereafter, but has stopped and a neutral to warmish pattern started setting up in Dec. A building pocket of warmer water continues over Chile and all of Peru now, a very good sign. Water temps off West Africa remain slightly warm. The California cool plume tracking southwest to the equator driven by high pressure off California remains modest but still in-place. The wall of warmer than normal water just off the North CA coast remains displaced west, held off by high pressure and local upwelling all the result of much offshore winds. Still, thousands of nmiles of warmer water is lurking between Japan and just off the North CA coast. In short, there's no sign of a legitimate warm pattern developing yet, but there are some interesting suggestions of such a pattern trying to develop. And certainly there's no troubling cool water on the charts and if anything, warm water is getting the upper hand. We remain in a pure neutral pattern (as neutral as it can get). It will take 3 months from the time the cool eddy ended off the Galapagos and a fully neutral pattern developed (mid-Sept) till anything helpful to the jetstream manifests in the upper atmosphere (mid-Dec). 

Subsurface waters temps on the equator indicate a large pocket of warm water 2-3 degs C above normal is down at 150 meters and has been moving from just west of the dateline (170E) to the dateline (180W) then to the Central Pacific (140W) and now to the East Pacific (110 W).  Temps are up to +3.0 deg C too off Central America at depth. NOAA is calling this an eastward moving Kelvin Wave. Today's chart indicates 2+ deg C waters are positioned 100 meters down at 110W and pushing east, suggesting the Kevin Wave has crossed the dead spot in the East Pacific sensor array and the warm pocket is in-fact still coherent and pushing east . This is great news. The expectation is it will now impact Ecuador and provide slight warming to the already warming surface warm pool near the Galapagos (a good thing) over the next 30-45 days. The hope is this will add some fuel to the jetstream.    

Projections from the CFSv2 model run 12/17 have upgraded significantly. The model previously had suggested rapid warming starting March 2014 building to +1.0 deg C by late July 2014. Then the model backed off some, but more recent runs started again suggesting warming expected to +0.9 deg C by Aug-Sept 2014. For the immediate future (this Winter) a neutral pattern is expected with temps hovering near 0.0 deg C. But starting January  water temps in the NINO 3.4 region are to be on the rise steadily pushing +1.0 C by Sept, in El Nino range. A consensus of other models suggests slow warming, but not passing beyond mildly positive territory till Spring of next year. 

Overall the immediate outlook remains nothing stellar, but trending towards something that would be considered right on the threshold of warm, by Summer 2014, assuming one were to believe the models. Other models suggest a continuation of neutral conditions, though trending warmer. All this is good news. If anything the ocean is in a recharging mode, with cold water from the 2010-2011 La Nina dispersed and temperatures gradually on the rise again in fit's-and-starts.

We are in a neutral ENSO pattern with neither a solid El Nino or La Nina imminent. Expect a neutral pattern for Winter of 2013-2014 with perhaps a slightly warmer pattern by early 2014. The weak presence of the Inactive Phase of MJO in the summer of 2013 still seems to be biasing the weather global pattern. But with the ocean turning neutral, we suspect the atmosphere will make the turn as well over the next few months (into Dec 2013). This is a better place than previous years (2010-2011, 2011-2012 and 2012-2013) under the direct influence of La Nina. It is becoming apparent we've finally recovered from the 2009-2010 El Nino. Longer term the expectation is there will be at least one to two years of neutral temperatures ultimately converging in a stronger warmer pattern and possible El Nino 2-3 years out (2015 or 2016). And historically, this is the 'normal' pattern (a few years of false starts post La Nina before a legit El Nino forms).

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool and more details in the  El Nino Update Updated 12/4/13 

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.   

Details to follow...

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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MAVFILM Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Updated - Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Monday (12/16) - http://youtu.be/jvEZLYc7hEo?hd=1
Subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel for automatic notifications of updates - just click the 'Subscrib'e button below the video.

- - -

Epic TV goes to Rapa Nui and scores. Nice Stormsurf plug too: Rapa Nui

Wall of Skulls - Here's a great video featuring Tahiti's famous wave. There's also a nice little plug for Stormsurf in it too. http://vimeo.com/70308073

Super Natural - Powerlines Productions has released their new big wave surf video chronicling the epic El Nino winter of 2009-2010 plus many other big wave event through the 2012-2013 winter season. It's a must see event for any big wave rider. It's for sale here: http://www.mavz.com/movies/super-natural/

Nantucket Marine Mammals has documented a short video concerning whale conservation and awareness off the Northeast US Coast. See it here: https://vimeo.com/68771910

Jason-1 Satellite Decommisioned - On June 21 an error occurred on board the Jason-1 satellite and it automatically shut down all critical functions. The satellite has since officially been decommissioned. It's last working transmitter failed on 6/21. All efforts have been made to get a response to no avail. The satellite has been placed in a parking orbit with it's solar panels turned away from the the sun. It's batteries are to discharge in the next 90 days. No additional data is expected from this satellite. We are working to start capturing data from the Jason-2 satellite, but that will take some time. More information to follow.

'CBS This Morning' with the Mavericks Invitational Surf Contest - See a nice morning TV show piece on the Mavericks Contest held Sun 1/20/13. The show aired Wed 1/23. Interviews with Colin Dwyer, Jeff Clark, Mark Sponsler and Grant Washburn: http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50139546n

Jaws Redbull Contest Forecast Explained By Stormsurf
http://www.redbullusa.com/cs/Satellite/en_US/Video/Mark-Sponsler-explains-what-is-needed-for-Red-021243299250784

Cortes Bank Mission (12/21-12/22/2012)
http://espn.go.com/action/surfing/story/_/id/8775178/greg-long-survives-cortes-bank-close-call
http://espn.go.com/action/surfing/story/_/id/8775197/greg-long-survives-serious-wipeout-cortes-bank

The Making of 'Chasing Mavericks' - See some background footage on how the movie was made: Part1, Part2

The Psychology of Big Wave Surfing with Greg Long - A must see for any aspiring big wave rider: http://vimeo.com/51117940

Greg Long XCel Core Files - Here's a great profile of Greg Long and his contributions toward pushing the state of big wave surfing. Well Done - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dd9pqgiXfxk&feature=player_embedded

Chasing Mavericks - The Jay Moriarty Movie: Two trailers for the new movie about Jay, Frosty and Mavericks has been posted. Movie opens on 10/26/12. Here's the link: http://www.mtv.com/videos/movie-trailers/818957/chasing-mavericks.jhtml & http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNdYoX9Vfxg&feature=relmfu

Props from the Pros:  Stormsurf was mentioned over the past week in two different media sources.  One was in an interview Kelly Slater did with the New York Times and another was in a promotional piece Ramon Navarro did for the Big Wave World Tour. Many thanks to Curt Myers from Powerline Productions for alerting us and of course thanks to Kelly, Ramon and the Tour for using our service. Here's the links:  
http://travel.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/travel/kelly-slaters-wave-finding-tips.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRSIkqpCqjU&feature=g-all-u

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New Wave Model Facts: Click HERE to read more about the new wave models. Important info.

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml

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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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