Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
- Buoy 106 (Waimea Bay): Seas were 6.5 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 9.8 secs from 35 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 5.5 ft @ 5.3 secs with swell 4.3 ft @ 5.8 secs from 278 degrees. Wind west 21-27 kts. Water temperature 62.8 degrees. At Santa Barbara swell was 1.4 ft @ 12.1 secs from 261 degrees. At Santa Monica swell was 4.7 ft @ 6.3 secs from 278 degrees. Southward from Orange County to San Diego swell was 4.2 ft @ 6.0 secs from 288 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 17.2 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 9.5 ft @ 12.7 secs from 310 degrees. Wind west 21-27 kts. Water temp 58.1 degs.
Buoy 46059, Hi-res Buoys
On Tuesday (12/22) in North and Central CA local East Gulf windswell was producing waves in the 4 ft overhead range and blown to bits by stiff west winds. Down in Santa Cruz surf was shoulder to head high and trashed by west winds. In Southern California up north surf was flat and heavily chopped by west winds. Down south waves were waist high and completely whitecapped by west winds and rain. Hawaii's North Shore was getting chest high wrap-around windswell and clean but with a bit of warble intermixed. The South Shore was flat and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves 2 ft overhead at exposed spots and heavily chopped by east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
Raw swell from a series of gales that impacted the Oregon Coast Mon (12/21) was hitting California but buried in chop. Another gale is forecast off the Pacific Northwest on Tues-Wed (12/23) generating 34+ ft seas and raw local swell but also accompanied by wind.
Beyond a gale is to develop on (12/25) in the Western Gulf generating 37 ft seas aimed east and tracking into the Northern Gulf Sat (12/26) with seas fading from 31 ft. Sideband swell possible for Hawaii with more direct energy for the US West Coast. And of some interest is a broad gale forecast to develop in the West Pacific Sun-Mon (12/28) tracking to the dateline Tues (12/29). Earlier runs suggested 50 ft seas but the latest runs suggest only 28-30 ft seas. The models don't have a handle on this one yet.
Longer term the models are converging on an outcome that suggests the Active Phase of the MJO is to finally migrate from the East Indian Ocean into the West Pacific a week or so out with a simultaneous collapse of the Inactive Phase over the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Destructive interference of the El Nino base state will fade with constructive interference the expected result, with a commensurate upgrade of the North Pacific jetstream starting about a week out. But it is interesting how during a supposed strong El Nino the MJO is as present as it supposedly is.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Tuesday AM (12/22) a reasonably consolidated jet was flowing east off Southern Japan with winds 160 kts on the 35N latitude line reaching the dateline, then ridging slightly northeast and tracking through the Central Gulf of Alaska up at 47N with 170 kts winds before falling southeast with a trough pushing into North CA. there was some indications of a weak .cgiit in the jet somewhere north of Hawaii, with a weak flow developing over the Islands and pushing into Southern Baja. A weak trough was indicated in the main flow just west of the dateline offering limited support for gale development there. Over the next 72 hours much the same pattern is to hold but a bit more fragmented. The dateline trough is to a.cgiify some by Thurs (12/24) but winds there are to be down to 140 kts offering some but limited support for gale development. A ridge is to build over the Western Gulf pushing up into west Alaska while another trough builds pushing down the Pacific Northwest with 130 kts winds then moving inland over Central CA, offering more weather and colder air but too local to promote real swell development. Beyond 72 hours winds are to start blooming over Japan to 190 kts on Sun (12/27) pushing to the dateline running flat west to east offering some support for gale development even though no clear cut trough is to be present. Those winds to reach east to a point north of Hawaii by Tues (12/29) with a good trough starting to develop in the Western Gulf while the main flow continues expanding east on the 35N latitude line reaching to 145W, with a .cgiit barely protecting local conditions in California. All this suggests a major influx of energy into the jet from the tropics, courtesy of the return of the Active Phase of the MJO.
On Tuesday (12/22) swell from a series of generic ill formed local gales was hitting California and the Pacific Northwest but buried in onshore wind and rain. This was more of a snow producer than and surf generator (see surf forecasts in the QuikCASTs). Also tiny swell from a gale previously over the North Dateline region was hitting Hawaii and the US West Coast (see North Dateline Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours starting Tues AM (12/22) 35-40 kts west winds to continue from the Eastern Aleutians to North Oregon with an embedded core to 45-50 kts in it's northwest end and seas building from 20-24 ft over the entire area with an embedded pocket to 34 ft up at 52N 150W (311 degs NCal). More of the same is forecast in the evening with winds 30-35 kts from South Oregon up into the Gulf with a core to 45 kts off Vancouver Island and the whole fetch starting to move southeast impacting Oregon north into British Columbia with 34 ft seas at 51N 141W and almost out of the NCal swell window (319 degs NCal). The broader fetch is to continue eastward Wed AM (12/23) fading with a pocket of 40 kt northwest winds just off Vancouver Island and 35 ft seas moving eastward from 48N 133W (319+ degs NCal). In the evening the fetch is to start falling directly southeast with a new pocket of 40 kt northwest winds building off Washington targeting North CA directly. 26 ft seas are forecast at 44N 125W and impacting the Pacific Northwest with a new pocket of 26 ft seas at 47N 137W (312 degs NCal). On Thurs AM (12/24) a residual small pocket of 35 kt northwest fetch is to be off North CA targeting Central CA with seas 26 ft at 42N 130W (310 degrees NCal). This system is to be moving into the North and Central CA coast on Christmas Eve evening with northwest winds and rain the likely outcome and seas 24 ft targeting and moving into the SF Bay Area. Raw jumbled swell the expected result surf wise for the Pacific Northwest down into Central CA.
North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on mid-day Thurs (12/24) with swell building to 13 ft @ 13-14 secs (15 ft) by sunset and buried in chop. Residual swell fading Fri (12/25) from 11 ft @ 13-14 secs (15 ft). Swell fading Sat (12/26) from 6 ft @ 12 secs (7 ft). Swell Direction: 310-319 degrees
Beyond low pressure is to try and get a foothold in the Western Pacific late Tues (12/22) but is to be deflected north fast by high pressure locked north of Hawaii. This low is to be moving over the North Dateline region Wed PM (12/23) with the core of the low in the Southern CEntral Bering Sea. It is to finally stall and starting to get organized over the Central Aleutians Thurs PM (12/24) generating a broad fetch of 40-45 kt west winds over the dateline and just south of the Aleutians with seas building to 25 ft at 50N 180W targeting Hawaii (335 degs) and the US West Coast (306 degs NCal). Christmas morning a solid fetch of 45 kt northwest winds are forecast in the Western Gulf with 34 ft seas over a solid area at 49N 172W (342 degs HI, 305 degs NCal). In the evening 45 kt west-northwest winds to start tracking east generating 37 ft seas at 50N 167W (349 degs HI, 307 degs NCal). Fetch is to be fading from 40 kts in the Western Gulf Sat AM (12/26) generating 35 ft seas at 48N 161W (356 degs HI, 303 degs NCal). Fetch is to be fading from 35 kts in the evening with 31 ft seas at 48N 153W (bypassing HI, 306 degs NCal). Possible solid swell mainly for the US West Coast with sideband energy for HI.
North Dateline Gale
Also a broad gale developed off the Northern Kurils on Thurs AM (12/17) with 35-40 kt west winds starting to get traction. By evening 40-45 kt west to southwest winds were just south of the Western Aleutians generating 26 ft seas at 49N 180W aimed more northeast than east. By Fri AM (12/18) 45-50 kt west winds to be just barely south of the Aleutians generating 32 ft seas at 51N 177E targeting the US West Coast with sideband energy. Residual 40 kt west winds continued just barely south of the North Dateline region in the evening producing 30 ft seas at 51N 174W. On Sat AM (12/19) 35 kt west winds were fading while moving towards the Gulf with 29 ft seas at 51N 168W and fading. This system is to be gone after that. Some degree of north angled swell is expected for the US West Coast with sideband swell for Hawaii, but relative to the US West Coast, it will be buried in other more local swell and unrecognizable as a separate distinct swell.
Hawaii: Mini-swell sideband swell to continue Tues AM (12/22) at 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3 ft). Residuals fading on Wed (12/23) from 2.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday AM (12/22) west-northwest winds were 25 kts from Cape mendocino south to Monterey Bay associated with a gradient between low pressure over the Pacific Northwest and high pressure northeast of Hawaii nosing into Southern CA. 15+ kts northwest winds were also pushing into everywhere south of the including Southern CA. Rain was still falling over the entire state with snow still falling in Tahoe. 49-54 inches of accumulation have occurred since Sat (12/19) above 7.000 ft. High avalanche danger. Light rain is to continue for the state fading late with steady light snow for higher elevations all day with 7-10 inches of additional accumulation possible. Wednesday (12/23) northwest winds to be 20+ kts for the entire state all day mainly attributable to high pressure holding off the coast. Light rain for the North 1/3rd of the state. No snow for the Sierra. Thurs AM (12/24) low pressure is to be over Oregon falling south with a front pushing into the coast driving cold air with it. Northwest winds 25-30 kts falling south and covering the state by nightfall. Modest rain falling south and over the entire state late. Snow starting early for the Sierra with 22 additional inches of accumulation possible into Fri AM. Friday (12/25) high pressure is to be in control with northwest winds 20 kts everywhere early and holding. Clearing skies. Saturday high pressure is to be fading with north winds fading from 15 kts to near clan late. A new front building while falling south over Oregon. Sunday (12/27) light winds early with a front pushing down the coast with north winds 15 kts after dark mainly north of Pt Conception. Light rain pushing south to San Francisco late. Monday northwest winds to be 15 kts for all of North and Central CA with no rain forecast. A lighter winds pattern forecast Tuesday (12/29).
No swell producing weather systems were occurring in the South Pacific.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a broad gale is to start developing in the West Pacific off the Kuril Islands on Sat PM (12/26) with mult.cgie pockets of 35-40 kt west winds projected, but not cohesive. On Sun AM (12/27) fetch is to get a little more consolidated off the Kurils with pockets of 45 kt northwest winds and seas to 28 ft down at 38N 160E. Fetch is to continue at 40-45 kts streaming off the Kurils in the evening with a broad area of 20-26 ft seas roughly near 41N 170E. More of the same is to continue Mon AM (12/28) with 40 kt west winds streaming off the Kurils with 26 ft seas over a broad area near 43N 175E with a tiny area of 38 ft seas at 46N 180W. In the evening the gale is to be fading with a huge area of 30-35 kt west winds filling the West Pacific with a tiny area of 55 kt west winds on the dateline with 26 ft seas filling the West Pacific with 34 ft seas over a small area at 47N 175W.
Additional 35-40 kt west fetch is to be building from there Tues AM (12/29) with 26 ft seas over a huge area extending 1060 nmiles in width on the 45N latitude line from 168E to 167W. a long duration 15-16 sec period swell seems possible targeting Hawaii and the US West Coast.
Beyond 72 hours noswell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
More details to follow...
Modest Kelvin Wave #5 Building
MJO Forecast Trending Favorably - Return of the Active Phase to the Pacific Projected
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equatorial Pacific it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slack if not an outright reversal of trade winds and enhanced precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the.cgianet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to .cgiit resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).E.cgianation of data layout below: Major sections are organized in cause-and-effect sequence starting with wind conditions/forecasts for the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA - equatorial West Pacific) followed by subsurface ocean temperature conditions (i.e. monitoring for Kelvin Waves), then ocean surface temperature conditions (i.e Nino 1.2 and 3.4) followed by atmospheric co.cgiing analysis. The 1st paragraph in each section is new/recent data and is typically updated with each new forecast. The 2nd paragraph, where present, provides analysis and context and is updated as required.
Overview: A strong El Nino is developing. It began its lifecycle in late 2013 as a primer WWB and Kelvin Wave developed. Then in early 2014 a historically strong push by the Active Phase of the MJO resulted in a large Kelvin Wave, and anomalies continued in the Spring into early Summer transporting more warm water eastward. But the cycle faltered in July due to a protracted bout of the Inactive Phase of the MJO which enabled the upwelling phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle to manifest driving cooler water east, muting warm water buildup along the Ecuador coast. Still the warm water pipe remained open, but surface temperatures near the Galapagos never recovered and any atmospheric momentum was lost. Then in early 2015, another historically strong push from the MJO occurred, effectively a repeat of the early 2014 event, invigorating the warm water transport process and, adding more heat to an already anomalously warm surface pool off Ecuador. That pool has been building steadily in spurts ever since. The paragraphs below describe the current status of various El Nino indicators, followed by a few paragraphs that tie all the pieces together and provide our analysis of what is to come.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis from TAO Buoys: As of Mon (12/22) down at the surface, the TOA array (hard sensors reporting with a 24 hr lag) indicated moderate west winds from 155E to 170W mainly south of the equator. Moderate west winds were north of the equator from 160E eastward. Inspecting the 00hr frame from the GFS model, east winds 123 kts were in control for most of the northern portion of the KWGA from 3N northward. But west winds were indicated at up to 20 kts in the core of the KWGA at 158E with a pocket south of the equator from 145E to 160E and again near 175E. Anomalies were from the west from 155E to 170E and neutral everywhere else. El Nino was starting to show itself again.
1 Week Forecast: The GFS model indicates west anomalies in.cgiay from 150E east to 160W and forecast to build both in velocity and width over the coming week (thru 12/29). A legit El Nino pattern is forecast to reemerge. Actual winds per the GFS model are to continue from the east at 16 kts in the north KWGA east of 160E and north of 3N through Tues (12/29). But west winds are to be building over the entire South KWGA at 14-18 kts through Tues (12/29) and up to 24 kts at the end of the period on one pocket near 165E to the dateline. A true El Nino pattern is projected. No east anomalies had occurred this year in the KWGA through 12/7, then materialized no thanks to the Inactive Phase of the MJO and are holding into 12/17. Fortunately that bout is now over with a healing pattern setting up.
A huge WWB occurred in March followed by a second smaller one (9 day duration) in early May with weaker but still solid west anomalies continuing after that through 6/10. Anomalies faded to neutral for 8 days through 6/18 as the Inactive Phase of the MJO interfered with the pattern (the first such event of the year), then weak westerlies started again on 6/18. A significant WWB (#3), the strongest of the year, started on 6/26 peaking near 7/4 then held nicely through 7/17 (22 days), the result of a historically strong Active Phase of the MJO which produced a strong and large Kelvin Wave #3, the third this year and the strongest by far. Moderate westerly anomalies redeveloped 7/29 when a Rossby Wave started interacting with the building El Nino base state, enhancing the westerly flow, developing a mini-WWB at 175E through 8/5. And westerly anomalies continued through 8/19. That is nearly 2 months of non-stop anomalies if not out and out west winds (6/26-8/19). From 8/19-8/25 lesser westerly anomalies occurred and those were mainly east of the KWGA, with dead neutral anomalies in the West KWGA. West anomalies started rebuilding on 8/26 and turned to legit west winds up at 9N on 9/3 and held in some fashion up there into 9/29 while calm winds held in the KWGA proper. And then strong west winds redeveloped in the Northeast KWGA on 10/1 and held through 10/18, resulting in a yet another defined WWB event (#4) rivaling WWB #3 in June-July. And another small WWB started further east on 10/22 through 10/30. But by 10/31 the Inactive Phase of the MJO appeared with west anomalies dead through (11/23). This slackening of the anomalies will likely usher in the Upwelling Phase of the Kelvin Wave Cycle after Kelvin Wave #4 terminates its eventual eruption in the vicinity of the Galapagos starting 2.5 months later or near 1/15/16. Starting 11/20 a weak west anomaly pattern set up near the dateline and held to 12/7, then fading with weak east anomalies taking hold till 12/17 courtesy of the Inactive Phase of the MJO. West anomalies started redeveloping on 12/17 and were building through today. West wind anomalies at the surface are the hallmark of the Active Phase of the MJO and El Nino and drive Kelvin Wave production.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East New!
Comparison of 2 Strong Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB)
On left the massive WWB in late June/July that created large Kelvin Wave #3. On right the current WWB that is generating Kelvin Wave #4.
Scales are a little different but notice anomalies in the July event at 12-14 m/s est (24-28 kts) and now in Oct at 13-14 m/s (26-28 kts)
(Click to Enlarge Images)
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: As of Mon (12/21) a moderate Inactive MJO signal was over the equatorial area south of Hawaii extending to the dateline with the Active Phase over the Maritime Continent moving towards the West Pacific. The Statistic model forecasts the Inactive Phase dissipating 8 days out with the moderate remains of the Active MJO moving well into the West Pacific while a strong Inactive Phase building in the Indian Ocean 15 days out. The dynamic model depicts the Inactive Phase fading in.cgiace with the Active Phase moving into the West Pacific with a new Inactive Phase building in the Indian Ocean. The two models are now in sync. From an El Nino standpoint, it should begin to start expressing itself about a week out as the Inactive Phase fades over the equatorial dateline region and destructive interference fades. If anything, El nino should be super charged by constructive interference by the pending Active Phase. this is very good news.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): The ECMF model indicates a moderate Active MJO signal in the East Indian Ocean and it is to build some and move steadily east into the West Pacific 2 weeks out. The GEFS is depicting a similar pattern too with it moving to the far West Pacific 2 weeks out. Still any exact outcome is a bit up in the air right now but the possibility of the Active Phase of the MJO moving into the West Pacific is looking better (80/20 odds).
40 Day Upper Level Model: This model depicts a Active MJO over the West Pacific easing east through 1/8. That is not believable. We are ignoring this model.
CFS Model beyond 1 week (850 mb wind): The Active Phase of the MJO is trying to build on the dateline today and is to continue to make eastward progress with it peaking near Jan 11. West anomalies are light in the KWGA area with no Rossby Wave in.cgiay but are to start building Jan1 and building to WWB status by 1/6 and holding through the end of the month while pushing east to 140W. This is a classic January El Nino pattern. the Inactive phase to set up 1/31 through 2/25, with west anomalies weakening but not gone. the Active Phase is to return 2/25 with west anomalies again in control at WWB status through the end of March.
It is obvious that the MJO is not dead, regardless of theories which suggest it should be during strong El Ninos. That evidence is the presence of the Inactive Phase that destructively interfered with the El Nino base state (12/7-12/17). It therefore makes sense that at some point the Active Phase should return and enhance the El Nino base state driving westerly anomalies from that point forward. That is expected an day now. But for now (12/22) the westerly anomaly pattern is not where it should be given the other atmospheric signals.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/21) Actual temperatures remain impressive and believable with all sensors on-line. A broad area of 30 deg temps were at depth from 160E to 152W (holding) with the 28 deg isotherm line back at 120W. Anomaly wise +2 deg anomalies are from the dateline eastward. +4 deg anomalies are from 147W eastward (moving east). +6 degs anomalies are from 130W eastward (moving east) with a core at +7 degs starting at 120W and points east of there. The core regions are mostly steady for the moment, but are expected to track east. Per the hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/14 the reservoir is in great shape with warm water still flowing into it from near the dateline and a large core of +5 deg anomalies in it's heart from 85W-135W (steady). This is a great scenario. Warm water also appears to continue erupting west of the Galapagos at +4 degs from 105W to 122W and again pushing towards the Galapagos/Ecuador region subsurface. Cool water is starting to undercut the warm pool though down at 125 meters and reaching east to 130W.
Sea Surface Height Anomalies (SSHA): (12/14) Heights are fading and moving east, but still at high levels. 0-+5 cm anomalies are retracting east and covering the entire equatorial Pacific starting at 177W (steady). Peak anomalies at +20 cm have vanished. +15 cm anomalies are fading extending from 100W to 126W and reaching from 5N to 5S (shrinking). +10 cm anomalies are pushing to Ecuador but not really tracking south down the Peruvian Coast, as would be expected during a typical El Nino.
Upper Ocean Heat Content: (12/14) is shrinking but still at very impressive levels indicating +0.5-1.0 deg anomalies are steady after rebuilding significantly moving from 152W to 160W and extending east to the Galapagos). +1.0-1.5 degs anomalies are rebuilding west to 144W eastward attributable to WWB #4 & #5/Kelvin Wave #4 & #5. +1.5 deg anomalies are building west from 138W and points east (building). A large pocket of +2.0 deg anomalies are steady at 129W into Ecuador. And +2.5 deg anomalies remain present but are shrinking between 117W->104W. 2.0-2.5 anomalies are again pushing into Ecuador. The Downwelling Phase of Kelvin Wave #4 continues in the east. This El Nino remains slightly westward di.cgiaced. The Upwelling Phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle is also evident in the west (just east of the dateline) with the eastward retreat of of all temperature bands, the result of the Inactive Phase of the MJO cycle which started 10/31 and continued into 12/17. But there is also some signs of a new Kevin Wave developing near the dateline (kelvin Wave #5). So thoughts that the warm subsurface reservoir might be discharging are at least for now on hold, pending more data on the supposed strength of this new Kelvin Wave #5 and the supposed return of the Active Phase of the MJO to the KWGA. Still the peak of El Nino from a subsurface warming perspective has already passed and any additional warming will serve mainly to extend the life of El Nino.
A strong Kelvin Wave impacted the Ecuador Coast in May-June with a second somewhat weaker one impacting it in June. The third and strongest so far is erupting, but somewhat westward di.cgiaced just west of the Galapagos and not as overtly strong as one would expect, being rather a steady bleed rather than a gully washer. In fact, a careful analysis indicates it has peaked. A previous pause in warming near Ecuador occurred starting mid August, attributable to the Upwelling Phase of the Kelvin Wave Cycle, but ended on 9/20. The subsurface configuration suggested there were 2.5+ months of warm water in the reservoir (till Dec 15) and some of that water is extremely warm (7 degs above normal). And now Kelvin Wave #4 is developing, expected to extend the life of the reservoir. The peak of Kelvin Wave #3 was forecast to occur roughly on 10/4. We revised it a few times since then, but looking back we've determined it was correct if not a little late (more below). But another equally strong WWB occurred peaking in 10/10 resulting in Kelvin Wave #4, which should peak 2.5 months later, or near 12/25 (nice Christmas present) and advecting west a month after that into Nino3.4 on 1/25. But it appeared to start erupting west of the Galapagos on 10/28 peaking 11/17. Typical of the character of this El Nino event, it is maddeningly slow and under whelming if viewed on a daily basis. But the overall impact, is marked and historically strong. With the WWB/Kelvin Wave #4, a more aggressive face of this El Nino appeared during the Oct-Nov timeframe. But the Inactive Phase of the MJO took over on 10/31, and with it the subsurface warm pool started discharging, with no significant westerly anomalies nor warm surface water left in the West Pacific to be driven to the east in the form of a Kelvin Wave.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2: (12/21) The latest image indicates temps were solid and gaining coverage but no intensity. No +4.0 deg anomalies were present. +2.25 anomalies covered from the Galapagos to Ecuador with increasing width, and building up into Costa Rica, but not overtly impressive. This continues to indicate the Kelvin Wave eruption area is westward di.cgiaced, with occasional pockets of warmer water sneaking in, but not steadily. Warming in this area peaked on 7/14 then crashed and has been trying to rebuild ever since.
Hi-res Nino 3.4: (12/18) The latest image depicts shrinking coverage, and still impressive. Coverage of +2.25 deg anomalies is not as thick north to south as last week mainly between 100w to 130W, but is holding nicely out towards 140W160W. Peak temps at +4.0 degs are loosing coverage near 110W but holding at 150W. Overall the pattern remains solidly impressive, but continues a slow decline from it's peak. All this warm water is now mostly attributable to Kelvin Wave #4. Temps between 160W-180W are shrinking also, with +2.25 deg anomalies reaching west to only 170W where they were to the dateline on 12/14. No +4 deg anomalies are present. This warm pool is advection west of warm water resulting from eruption of Kelvin Waves #3 and #4.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/20): Moderate warming is occurring over a broad area down the South American Coast off Chile and Peru and north of the equator up into Central America. Also temps are on the increase on the equator from the Galapagos to 110W. Maybe Nino 1.2 is getting ready to come online.
Hi-res Overview: (12/20) The El Nino signal is unmistakable. The main focus continues to be eruption ports that developed starting 10/28 west of the Galapagos and continue today. Those ports peaked on 11/19, not as intense as a previous peak on 9/19, but covering a larger area. Today the warmest temps have less coverage than the November peak and continue to fade. As of 12/20 was one pocket of +4 deg anomalies from 105W to 115W where it previous covered from 100W to 140W. The mid-zoomed image depicts the vent port area fading and loosing some intensity with +4 deg anomalies from 105-118W with a small area of +5 anomalies at 109W. +4.0 anomalies exist just west of the Galapagos too. It's still impressive.
Kevin Wave #3 peaked on 9/19 with mult.cgie pockets of +5 degs anomalies occurring. The number and intensity of those vent ports faded, then redeveloped and increased significantly starting 10/28 and peaked on 11/23. That peak was attributable to Kelvin Wave #4. a slow fade is occurring now as Kelvin Wave #4 dissipates some.
Historical Comparison of Strong El Nino's
Updated! Images built using 2 data sets - Monthly OISSTv.2 (left) & ERSSTv4 (right) This years data valid through November.
Both images/datasets suggest this is the warmest the NINO3.4 region has ever been. Now the question becomes: Will that translate in weather and swell? If the theory that temps in this area translate in stormier weather, then the answer is obvious.
Requisite Disclaimer - Current performance is no indication of future performance.
(Click to enlarge)
Kelvin Wave #3 Eruption Evolution
(click to enlarge)
TAO Data: +1.0 anomalies are in control over the entire equatorial East Pacific, the warmest in years, advecting west from the Galapagos covering the entire area west to the dateline and beyond (expanding west to 165E). We're monitoring the +0.0 anomaly line on the equator to see if it's moving east. Today its off the charts but was formally at 140E (steady and well west). +1.5 deg anomalies are steady reaching unbroken to 175E. There is also a solid area of +2.0-2.5 deg anomalies extending from the Galapagos to 179W. A pocket of +3.0 deg anomalies is steady from 110W-167W. A pocket of +3.5 anomalies is fading at 155W. Overall the warm water signature is steady and impressive.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/22) Temps are rising at +1.950, down from +2.088 (12/15), down from +2.387 12/11, holding there since 11/30, up from +1.708 11/19, down from +2.106 (11/5), down form +2.422 on 11/1. Previously temps peaked for 5 days at +2.581 near 10/8 and previously spiked at +3.0 degs on 7/3, faded, then spiked again on 7/13 at +3.0 degs and yet again at +3.0 degs on 7/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (12/22) temps are up some at + 2.708, up from + 2.517 (12/19), up from +2.416 (12/15), falling slowly but steadily from +3.022 (12/3) and up from +2.967 (12/1), steady from +2.980 (11/27), up slightly from +2.900 on 11/23, down 15 hundredths from 11/20 at +2.915, down one tenth of a degree from the all time peak of +3.041 on 12z 11/19. This temp beat the previous all time high of +3.028 degs (12Z 11/17), up from + 2.986 as of (12Z 11/15) Nov 15. Overall temps have not been below +2.0 degs since 8/21. and are right at +2.9 or greater since 11/13. Very Impressive. This continues the upward trend with previous peaks at +2.780 (12z Nov 12) up from +2.704 (11/5 12Z). And more previous peaks for this event were: +2.512 (10/24 06z) besting the previous record of +2.468 (10/20), up from +1.824 on 10/8, and beating the previous peak of +2.44 on 10/3. The thought is Nino 3.4 temps are about peaked out now (until Kelvin Wave #4 starts to erupt and advect west). Previously temps were up from +2.037 on 10/1 and +2.077 on 9/17. The previous all time peak for this event was +2.24 degs on 8/23 (one day). That was crushed on 10/3 at +2.44, and now bested on 10/20 at +2.4678. By any standard we are at a Strong El Nino levels. We expect these temps to continue upward for the foreseeable future.
Nino3.0 CDAS Index Temps: The '97 El Nino peaked in this region at 3.6-3.7 degs mid-Nov to mid-Dec (OISSTv2). That is the goal. Today's value was +2.753, up from +2.671 (12/19), up barely from +2.655 (12/15), down from +2.882 (12/12), steady since (12/10) when it was +2.942, down some from (12/8) when it was +2.988 and stead compared to the 12/6 value of +2.989, up slightly form +2.919 (12/3), up from +2.905 (12/1), down slightly from +2.990 (11/28) up from +2.855 (11/23), up some from + 2.799 on 11/21, and down from +2.957 on 11/19. So we have some distance to go to be comparable to '97 in this region.
Nino3.4 Weekly Temps (OISSTv2 - 1981-2010 base period - centered in Jan 3 1990): On 12/16, temps were steady at +2.9 degs in both Nino3 and 3.4 and +1.7 in Nino 4. 12/9 was down slightly at +2.8 (Nino3.4) and +2.9 (Nino3). On 12/2 they were +2.9 (in both Nino3.0 and 3.4), down from 11/25 when they were +3.0 (in both Nino3.0 and 3.4), and down from the peak of +3.1 on 11/18, up from 11/11 when temps in Nino3 and 3.4 were both +3.0 degs. On 11/4 they were both +2.8. In '97 (11/26) peak temps in Nino3.4 reached +2.8. So we have beat that mark. But Nino3 temps in '97 reached +3.6-3.7 degs. We still have +0.6 degs to go. Insert Subsurface/Surface image here This years event is westward di.cgiaced somewhat like the '82/83 super El Nino event, but not as strongly so. The main evidence for this is the continued eruption of Kelvin Wave #3 west of the Galapagos with weakened warming east of there. This suggests the Walker circulation is not di.cgiaced as far east as in '97 but more like '82/83. Best analysis from upper level charts suggests it's core is at 110W. At this time we're unsure what the effects on rainfall would be. Total rainfall in San Francisco in '82/83 was 38.17" (+16.38") versus 47.22" in '97/98 (+25.43"). The long term average is 21.79". In LA in '82/83 it was 31.28" (+16.47) versus 31.01" in '97 (+16.2"). Long term average 14.81". Regardless, both events were well above average. This also suggests the core of storm production will be north of the most warming. So rather than the Eastern to Central Gulf of Alaska being the focus, it might be more in the Western Gulf. This is actually a good thing relative to California by perhaps giving resulting swells more room to groom themselves before hitting the coast. This might bode not so well for Hawaii, with large stormy conditions the result. Of course, this is just speculation at this time.
Nino3.4 Monthly Temps (November) The centered Nino3.4 temps for the month of November were released 12/3 and came in at +2.34 degs C (ERSSTv4), beating the highest temp recorded in '97 (Nov - +2.32 degs) and beating the peak of the '82 El Nino (Dec +2.21 degs). And this years Oct temps were adjusted upwards to +2.0 degs. See updated graphs above. As of right now for a one month average, this put this years El Nino stronger than '97 and therefore the strongest ever (based on a one month SST reading). The ONI uses a 3 month running average. That is the final determiner. Very interesting.
SST Anomalies on 9/14/2015 and what is driving them from below
(Click to enlarge)
Given the westward di.cgiacement in this years El Nino, we are interested in the relative effect on the jetstream as compared to previous strong ENSO events. That's is, how does one compare eastward versus westward di.cgiaced El Nino events. This years El Nino has relatively weak Nino1.2 anomalies compared to '82 and '97, but much warmer in Nino4. Do Nino3.4 temps accurately take that difference into account? We decided to find out. First we made an assumption: It is the total volume of warm water in the equatorial East Pacific, not just in Nino3.4 that defines the magnitude of the resulting El Nino atmospheric response. Whether that water is eastward or westward di.cgiaced, it makes no difference, as long as one can measure the total heating footprint, the bulk atmospheric response should be the same, just the center of core storm production would be either more east or west di.cgiaced.Next we needed to determine how to measure total heating footprint. There is a good historical record for anomalies in Nino1.2 (spanning 10 degrees longitude - 80W-90W), Nino3 (spanning 60 degrees - 90W-150W) and Nino4 (50 degrees - 150W to 150E). If one performs a weighted average of the SST anomalies for the 3 zones, a composite anomaly can be obtained. So we did that for recent strong El Nino events. The results indicate a pattern very similar to si.cgie Nino3.4 analysis, that this years event is in the top 2 for this time of year and the top 3 of all time (discounting the more historically correct 'centered' data). Here's the data:
Note: ERSSTv4 'centered' data is not available for Nino1, 3 and 4 regions, only Nino3.4.
Pacific Counter Current: As of 12/6 the current was strong from the west north of the equator from 125E to 130W with solid pockets on the equator at 130-160E and 170W. Anomaly wise - One pocket of solid west anomalies were between the dateline to 160W on the equator. Otherwise everything was normal. There were no pocket of east anomalies indicated. This is somewhat impressive as long as one does not compare it to '97, because if you do, there is no comparison. In '97 the current was solidly east from 170E to 130W mostly north of the equator with anomalies very strong from 165E to 120W on the equator.
SST Anomaly projections
CFSv2 model - PDF Corrected: This data is worthless. We are not reporting on it anymore.
Uncorrected Data depicted peak temps to +2.95 degs on Nov 5, then fading slightly to early December, then falling to +2.5 degs Jan 1 and projected on a steady decline from there but not falling to +0.0 even by Sept 1.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Dec Plume depicts temps peaked in early Nov, at +2.9 degs. the consensus suggests temps to fall steadily from here forward, down to 0.0 by august and then going slightly negative from there.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Co.cgiing Index's (lagging indicators rather than driving oceanic change):
Daily Southern Oscillation Index (12/22): Was falling from -4.20. Of note: The 97 El Nino had daily values at -40 to -50 in early Nov with one spurt to -76 Jan 30-31st. A peak reading so far in this 2015 event was -49.70/-46.60 on Oct 3 & 4 and then -42.20 on 10/14 and -47.50 on 12/3.
30 Day Average: Was rising from -11.46. The peak low was recorded on 10/9 at -22.72, beating the previous peak low of -20.95 on 8/21, with the previous lowest at -20.49 on 7/18/15. This is exactly where we want to be (at -20 or lower).
90 Day Average: Was rising some at -13.28. A record low of -19.28 occurred on 10/16 and was matched on 10/20. The previous record low was -18.56 on 9/16. This is the critical threshold we've been anticipating (values -18 or lower), providing yet more evidence of strong atmospheric co.cgiing. We want to see it hold there, and that goal is looking more possible. It has been at or below -10.0 since early July and -15.0 since 9/4 and on a steady fall ever since. The 90 day SOI bottomed out at a low reading on 8/5 at -14.17, then beat it on 9/2 at -15.23, beating that on 9/16 at -18.56 and now -19.28 on 10/16.
SOI Trend - Darwin (looking for high pressure here): Weak low pressure was over Southwest Aust on 12/22 as it has been for weeks, with no immediate change forecast through Tues (12/29) and if anything falling with a possible typhoon in the Darwin area on Sat (12/26). We're dying to see high pressure take over East Australia. But the Active Phase of the MJO in the East Indian Ocean needs to fade or move east and be r.cgiaced by the Inactive Phase for that to occur. It is high pressure over Australia in NHemi winter months that is the preferred pattern for El Nino development in the Pacific.
SOI trend - Tahiti (looking for low pressure here): On 12/22 a neutral high pressure pattern was in control over Tahiti. This pattern is to hold for the coming 6 days with a broad low pressure pattern forecast developing just west of tahiti by Tues (12/29). This is the coming of the Active Phase of the MJO. The SOI should hold steady then start falling based on the Tahiti contribution. If a Super El Nino is in development one would want to see continuous local lows near or over Tahiti. We're seeing perhaps a start of that pattern.
SOI 1 week Forecast: The net result is to be a steady state SOI with values holding neutral for the next week. The Inactive Phase of the MJO in the West Pacific has been having significant impact. Hopefully that is poised to change a week out.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed cloud cover): (12/22) today's value was up some at +1.49. On 12/15 it was at +1.17, down from +1.25 (12/10), after rising through 12/8 to +1.37, up from +0.89 (12/1), up from +0.57 (11/23), down from +0.97 (11/15). This is a good trend suggesting that perhaps we're recouping from the lowest we've seen it on 12/1. Maybe the Inactive MJO in the Pacific is fading. But it is also typical for the ESPI to start falling as we move into Winter. This is primarily a summer and early Fall index during El Nino years. The most recent high value was +2.40 on Sat (10/17). It had been holding in the +1.95-2.20 range for weeks (thru 10/13) with only minor fluctuation. The ESPI was steady in the +2.5 range through 8/10, then began falling, to +2.42 on 8/18 and bottoming out at +1.78 on 8/26. It started rebuilding on 8/29 at +1.89 holding at +1.87 on 9/18 and up to +2.2 on 9/24 reaching +2.3 on 9/26, then down to 2.02 on 9/29. Historically the peak of the '82 El Nino was +2.2 and the '97 event +2.85. This suggests the '15 El Nino is reasonably well co.cgied with the atmosphere, more so than some of the other indices indicate. Monthly ESPI values are as follows: July 3.76, Aug 2.34, Sept 2.1, Oct 2.3. '97 had two peak values at +2.99 in Aug and +3.06 in Sept. 2015 had +3.7 in July followed by +2.33 and +2.20 in Aug and Sept and 2.3 in Oct. to complete with '97.
Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) (Nov) The current ranking is up some, at +2.31, up barely from +2.23 (Oct), down from it's peak of +2.53 in Sept, and from +2.37 in Aug. Still this MEI value has the 2015 event as the second 3rd strongest El Nino ever, and equivalent to 1982 for this time of year. So we continue mid-way between the '82 and '97 events, in strong El Nino territory presumably moving towards the Super El Nino range. The top 5 events since 1950 in order are: '97, '82, '91, '86, and '72 with '97 and '82 classified as 'Super El Nino's' because they reached 3 standard deviations (SD) above normal. '91 and '86 were at about 2.2 and 2.1 respectively with '72 peaking at 1.8 SD's above the norm. We've already beat all those. Suffice it to say we are somewhere between '82 and '97 in term of of atmospheric co.cgiing per this index. Most impressive.
North Pacific Jetstream (12/22) Detailed analysis is in the NPac Short Term Forecast above. The jet looks decent but not exceptional constrained by when the Inactive Phase of the MJO took over and has had a dampening effect. But that is to start changing 5 days out.
Comparing the 2015 El Nino to '82 and '97
(Click to enlarge)
Conclusion: WWB #3 peaked on July 4, with the resulting Kelvin Wave peaking on Sept 19 west of the Galapagos, or a roughly 2.5 month travel time. Likewise those warm waters advected into Nino3.4, peaking about one month later, or 10/19. Peak atmospheric influence should occur approximately 2 months later or 12/20. Then WWB #4 developed of near equal strength, peaking on 10/15, which resulted in formation of Kelvin Wave #4. Using the same te.cgiate, peak eruption of Kelvin Wave #4 is expected on 12/30/2015 (westward di.cgiaced), and advecting into Nino3.4 and peaking roughly 1/30/2016 with peak atmospheric influence on approx 3/30/2016. This suggests peak atmospheric perturbation will occur in the window from 12/2/2015-4/2/2016, or well di.cgiaced later in the Winter as compared to the '97/98 event, and somewhat like the '82/83 event. The Inactive Phase of the MJO took control 10/31, and is expected to usher in the Upwelling Phase of the Kelvin wave Cycle starting 1/31/16. The resultant slackening of peak water temps won't reach Nino3.4 till 3/1, and won't hit the atmosphere till 5/1. By then, the effective lifecycle of El Nino for the Winter of 2015-2016 will be over. And any westerly anomalies projected for the KWGA in the Dec-Jan 2016 timeframe will contribute nothing to Kelvin Wave production and jetstream a.cgiification just due to the time it will take for a resulting Kelvin Wave to migrate east. But those anomalies could help the atmosphere like the Active Phase of the MJO does, fueling jetstream energy. That is the primary contribution of westerly anomalies from here forward.
In terms of comparative strength based on Nino3.4 temps, 2015 is in the same ballpark based on OISSTv2 weekly data. Based on ERSSTv4 data (a more conservative data source) '97 peaked at +2.32 degs with 4 months of +2.0 degs anomalies and '82 at +2.21 degs with 2 months temps greater than +2.0 degs. 2015 is looking to produce a +2.1 degree one month average based on very rough data today, with a huge reservoir of anomalies still venting to the surface and Kevin Wave #4 still migrating east. But, coverage of warmer than normal water and it's affect on the atmosphere is not limited to just the Nino3.4 area. Nino3 and Nino1.2.cgiay a role. It's is the total areal coverage of the warm water footprint that defines the impact on the atmosphere. Temps in Nino3 in this years event are at +3.0 degs, but peaked at +3.7 degs in '97. Conversely temps in Nino 4 in this years event beats temps in '97. All graphed out, one gets the sense that '97 and 2015 are very different events, but similar in total atmospheric effect. It's not just magnitude of the peak temps that make a difference atmospherically, but also the duration of those anomalies. The longer and stronger the anomalies, the greater the atmospheric response. At this time the expected atmospheric affects should be significant, though di.cgiaced somewhat later in the season.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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