Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.1 ft @ 13.4 secs from 256 degrees. Water temp 78.1 (Barbers Pt), 78.3 (Pearl Harbor 233), 78.8 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.5 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 12.5 secs from 323 degrees. Water temp 77.2 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.0 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 3.0 ft @ 12.4 secs from 312 degrees. Water temp 77.7 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 12.6 secs from 290 degrees. Wind southwest at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 55.4 degs, 53.4 (Harvest 071), 57.0 (Topanga 103), 58.3 (Long Beach 215), 58.8 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 57.6 (Del Mar 153), 60.1 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.0 ft @ 12.1 secs from 266 degrees. At W. Santa Barbara (46054) swell was 3.8 ft @ 11.4 secs from 284 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.1 secs from 243 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 2.2 ft @ 12.6 secs from 251 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.2 secs from 229 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.0 ft @ 12.9 secs from 254 degrees. Water temperature was 55.4 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 11.1 secs from 282 degrees. Wind east 4 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NA kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NNE 10 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.5 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.4 (San Francisco 46026), 52.7 (SF Bar 142), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 55.0 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 55.0 (Soquel Cove S.).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Wednesday (1/1) in North and Central CA waves were head high on the sets and somewhat lined up but a bit irregular but clean with light offshore winds and somewhat rideable. Protected breaks were occasionally waist high and clean and very soft but mostly just breaking on the beach. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh high and soft and mushed and clean and not really rideable just due to lack of size. In Ventura County surf was rarely thigh high and lined up and clean but very soft. Central Orange County had sets at chest to near head high and lined up and clean and a bit closed out. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had surf rarely at waist to maybe chest high and lined up and very clean but soft. North San Diego had sets at chest high and lined up and clean with decent form. Oahu's North Shore had sets at head high or so and clean but pretty warbled from underlying northeasterly lump. The South Shore had rare thigh high waves and weakly lined up but very clean early. The East Shore had wave to thigh high and chopped from moderate east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Wednesday (1/1) no swell of interest was hitting Hawaii or California with surf small at all locations. Looking forward a small gale developed in the Northwestern Gulf Mon (12/30) tracking east with 29 ft seas. Swell os radiating towards the US West Coast. A somewhat broader system developed off Japan tracking east Mon (12/30) with seas building to 33 ft just east of the dateline Tues (12/31) and then to 39 ft early Wed (1/1) over a small area aimed east before fading in the West Gulf. And a broader and stronger gale was starting to develop west of Japan Wed (1/1) forecast tracking to the dateline through Fri (1/3) with up to 43 ft seas then dissipating while just barely making it east of the dateline. Another gale is forecast developing just west of the dateline Sun-Tues (1/7) falling southeast with seas to 33 ft and gain just barely making it east of the dateline. More surf looks likely.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Wednesday (1/1) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan forming a well defined trough half way to the dateline and then continuing east with a second trough over the Western Gulf before pushing onshore over Oregon with both trough supportive of gale formation but especially the one off Japan. Winds were up to 180 kts off Japan and down to 120 kts pushing into the US West Coast. Over the next 72 hours both troughs are to push east and by Fri (1/3) the first trough is to fade out in the Western Gulf and the 2nd is to be just off Oregon and North CA posed to move onshore creating weather there. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (1/4) the jet is to be solid over the West Pacific consolidated with winds to 190 kts from Japan to a point just north of Hawaii but with no troughs indicated and the weakly split east of there with most energy in the northern branch continuing east and pushing inland over Oregon. By Mon (1/6) a broad trough is forecast developing filling the dateline and Western Gulf regions being fed by 190-200 kts winds offering good support for gale formation. That trough is to push east to the Western Gulf on Wed (1/8) still supporting gale formation before starting to lift northeast on Thurs (1/9) . At that time winds are to be still solid pushing off Japan at 170 kts reaching to the dateline offering potential for gale formation beyond and the jet consolidated the whole way across the Pacific. A decent pattern supportive of gale formation looks to continue.

Surface Analysis
On Wednesday (1/1) minimal swell from a gale previously over the Northwest Pacific was tracking towards Hawaii (see Weak Northwest Pacific Gale below). And small swell is radiating towards California from a tiny gale that developed in the Northwestern Gulf (see Small Northwestern Gulf Gale below). And yet another swell is radiating towards Hawaii and California from a strong gael that developed in the Western Gulf (see West Gulf Gale below).

And secondary fetch from the West Gulf Gale is forecast developing Thurs PM (1/2) in the East Gulf with west winds 30 kts with seas building from 21 ft at 36.5N 140.5W aimed east. On Fri AM (1/3) west winds to be 35-40 kts in the Eastern Gulf just off Cape Mendocino with seas 21 ft at 38N 134W aimed east. In the evening 35 kt west winds are to be impacting Cape Mendocino and Oregon with seas 25 ft over a tiny area at 40N 128W. Fetch and seas fading while moving inland Sat AM (1/4).

North CA: For planning purposes expect swell arrival on Sat AM (1/4) 8.5 ft @ 14 secs early (11.5 ft). Residuals fading Sun AM (1/5) from 5.6 ft @ 13 secs (7.0 ft). Residuals fading Mon AM (1/6) from 4.6 ft @ 11-12 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 292 degrees

West Pacific Storm
A broad storm was developing just off Central Japan Wed AM (1/1) with 50-55 kt northwest winds and seas 38 ft at 38.5N 158.5E aimed east. In the evening the storm is to track east with west winds 50-55 kts half way to the dateline over a broad area with seas 43 ft at 36.25N 164E aimed east and southeast. On Thurs AM (1/2) northwest winds to be 40-45 kts over a large area approaching the dateline with 42 ft seas at 37.75N 171.75E aimed east. Fetch easing east up to the dateline in the evening at 40+ kts over a broad area and seas 40 ft at 37.25N 175.5E aimed east and southeast. Fetch holding position Fri AM (1/3) at 35-40 kts with seas fading from 38 ft at 43.25N 179.25W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be regrouping to the west at 45 kts over a solid area aimed east and now west of the dateline with seas from the original fetch fading from 32 ft at 44N 171.5W aimed east and a new area of 30 ft seas at 45.5N 167E aimed east. On Sat AM (1/4) only the new fetch is to remain at 35-40 kts from the west extending from the Kuril Islands to the Southern Dateline with 25 ft seas over that entire area and up to 32 ft seas at 44.5N 172E aimed east and southeast. In the evening the fetch is to start shrinking with 35-40 kts northwest winds off the Kurils and seas 26 ft at 41N 172E aimed east and southeast. Something to monitor.

Weak Northwest Pacific Gale
On Sat AM (12/28) a weak gale started developing just off North Japan with 35-40 kts west winds and seas 25 ft at 42.5N 159E aimed east. In the evening northwest winds were 30-35 kts over a building area with seas 27 ft at 44N 165E aimed east. On Sun AM (12/29) northwest winds held at 30-35 kts approaching the dateline with seas 25 ft at 46N 170E aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening from 30-35 kts with seas 24 ft at 46N 178.25E aimed east. Fetch and seas fading fast after that. Maybe some background swell to result for Hawaii.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Thurs AM (1/2) and buried in other more dominant swells. Swell Direction: 320-324 degs

Small Northwest Gulf Gale
On Mon AM (12/30) a tiny gale developed in the Northwestern Gulf producing a small area of west winds at 40 kts with seas starting to build from 22 ft at 47N 158W aimed east. In the evening it tracked east with 40-45 kts west winds and seas building to 29 ft at 47N 153W aimed east. Fetch faded from 30-35 Tues AM (1/31) with seas fading from 25 ft at 48N 149W aimed east. The gale dissipated after that. Small swell is radiating towards the US West Coast.

North CA: Expect swell arrival starting Thurs (1/2) 5.9 ft @ 15 secs early (8.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (1/3) from 5.9 ft @ 14 secs early (8.0 ft). Swell Direction: 303 degrees

West Gulf Gale
A gale started developing just west of the dateline Monday evening (12/30) with northwest winds 40-45 kts in pockets and seas 24 ft at 42.5N 174E aimed east. On Tues AM (12/31) the gale reached storm status tracking east fast with with west winds 45-50 kts and seas 27-30 ft centered at 41.5N 171.25W aimed east. In the evening fetch was fading in the far Western Gulf from the west at 35-45 kts and elongated with seas 37 ft over a small area at 43.5N 166.75W aimed east. Fetch was fading Wed AM (1/1) in the Western Gulf from 35-40 kts with seas 35 ft at 42.5N 160W aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening while moving into the Central Gulf from 30-35 kts and seas barely 30 ft at 42N 152W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Thurs AM (1/2) building to 5.6 ft @ 15 secs late AM (8.5 ft). A second pulse to arrive in the evening and then fading Fri AM (1/3) from 4.8 ft @ 14 secs (6.5 ft). Dribbles fading Sat AM (1/4) from 2.8 ft @ 11-12 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320-325 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri AM (1/3) at 5.9 ft @ 14 secs (8.0 ft) holding through the day then being overrun by local swell beyond. Swell Direction: 290 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Thurs AM (1/2) light winds are forecast for North CA and north-northeast at 10+ kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon south winds build at 10-15 kts ahead of a front for Cape Mendocino and south 1-5 kts from Pt Arena to Pt Conception. Rain fading while drifting north over mostly Cape Mendocino through the day.
Fri AM (1/3) a front is to be impacting Cape Mendocino with south winds 20 kts and south winds down to Monterey Bay at maybe 10 kts and calm for the rest of Central CA early. In the afternoon high pressure tries to sneak in under the low pressure system now impacting Oregon with west winds 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. Rain for all of North CA early reaching south to Monterey in the afternoon then fading overnight. Heavy snow limited to Tahoe in the afternoon and clearing overnight.
Sat AM (1/3) weak high pressure sets up with northwest winds 10 kts for North CA and down to Big Sur then northwest 15+ kts south of there. In the afternoon northwest winds to hold at 10 kts for North CA but a gradient sets up for Central CA with northwest winds 15-20 kts from Pigeon Point southward. Light rain limited to North Cape Mendocino.
Sun AM (1/4) no change is forecast with northwest winds 10 kts for North Ca and northwest 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon no change is forecast. No precip forecast.
Mon AM (1/5) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and northwest 15 kts from Monterey Bay southward. No change in the afternoon. Rain for Cape Mendocino.
Tues AM (1/6) a pressure gradient sets up with northwest winds 15 kts for all of North and Central CA. No change in the afternoon. No precip forecast.
Wed AM (1/7) the gradient starts to relax with north winds 10 kts for all of North and Central CA early. In the afternoon north winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 10, 14, 4, and 3 inches all on Fri (1/3).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 7,000 ft today rising to 10,000 ft 1/2 before falling to 4,000 ft late on 1/3 then rising to 8,000 ft late on 1/4 and 10,000 ft 1/6 and beyond rising to 12,000 ft 1/9. A very warm winter looks to be setting up.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell is in the water and no swell producing fetch is occurring. .

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Sun AM (1/5) lingering fetch off the Kuril Islands from a previous gale are to redevelop producing northwest winds at 40-45 kts and seas building from 28 ft at 44N 163E aimed southeast. In the evening a broad fetch of 35-40 kt northwest winds are to build extending from the Kurils to the dateline with seas 32 ft at 41.5N 169.5E aimed southeast at Hawaii. On Mon AM 91/6) fetch is to fall southeast at 35-40 kts with seas 32 ft at 37N 173.5E aimed southeast. More of the same in the evening with seas 28-31 ft over a large area on the dateline centered at 34N 177E aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well. Fetch fading Tues AM (1/7) from 30-35 kts over a large area 500 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with seas 28-32 ft at 38N 176.75W aimed southeast. Fetch tracking east in the evening at 30-35 kts with seas 29 ft at 35N 170.25W aimed east. Fetch fading after that. Something to monitor.

Possibly another gale is to be building just off Japan on Wed PM (1/8) with 35 kts west winds and seas building.

Modoki La Nina in Control
MJO Pattern Now 'Unstuck'
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 5 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific, with a 6th one underway now. The atmosphere is in a weak La Nina mode focused on the dateline, but not expected to build or move much beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/31) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral to weak west over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/1) Today moderate east anomalies were over the dateline but with moderate west anomalies filling the west half of the KWGA. The forecast suggests west anomalies start retrograding to the west while fading in strength isolated back over the Maritime Continent by 1/6 with east anomalies building in coverage and strength filling the KWGA at strong status 1/10 and beyond holding through the end of the model run on 1/17.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (12/31) Currently the Active Phase (wet air) was over the KWGA but weak. The statistic model depicts the Active MJO moving east though still in the KWGA on day 5 then east of it on days 10 and 15 with the Inactive Phase (dry air) building into KWGA on day 10 and filling it on day 15 but only weak. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with the building Inactive Phase reaching strong status. .
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (12/29) - The models depicts the Active Phase was weak over the East Pacific. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the West Indian Ocean 2 weeks out and very weak. The dynamic model depicts it also moving to the far West Indian Ocean and weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (1/1) This model depicts a weak MJO pattern with neither the Active (wet air) or Inactive (dry air) present over the 40 days.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/31) Today moderate to strong east anomalies were in control of the east half of the KWGA with modest west anomalies over the Western KWGA with active contours filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates west anomalies at moderate status holding position into 1/5 then retreating with Active contours tracking east and east of the KWGA by 1/11. East anomalies are to then hold over the core of the KWGA while rebuilding to strong status 1/14 with Inactive contours entering the KWGA 1/20 holding through the end of the model run on 1/28. But east anomalies are to retreat east to 150E starting 1/14 and neutral anomalies west of there through the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/1) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase of the MJO was in control over the KWGA but with moderate east anomalies filling 65% of it and west anomalies filling the west 45% of it but Active contours filling the KWGA. The forecast has east anomalies effectively filling the KWGA into late Feb. The current Active Phase and it's contours are to continue filling the KWGA then fading on 1/13. A moderate Inactive Phase to follow 1/4/25 tracking east through 2/3 with east anomalies filling the KWGA at moderate to strong status. A weak Active Phase is to follow 2/3 through 3/22 with west anomalies finally filling the KWGA starting 2/28. Another Inactive Phase to follow 3/12 through the end of the model run on 4/1 with west anomalies holding over the core of the KWGA The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour and is to hold through the end of the model run. Maybe a second contour developing around 3/1. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4-8/3, collapsed to nothing, then returned over the dateline 11/16 with 1 contour line and a second developed 12/7 and a third forecast developing 1/9 then fading on 3/20. This suggests a stronger La Nina pattern developing from now forward than previously forecast. This is not as hoped for but also not in line with any other model. regardless, the CFS modes seems to always have an early lead on newly developing trends (if not a little bit overhyped).

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/1) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 162E. The 29 degree isotherm was retrograding from 166E to 162E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 175E. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to 125W (previously 140W). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West and East Pacific with a building pocket of strongly cooler anomalies present down 125 meter centered at 150W at -6 degs extending from 120-170W filling the Central Pacific thermocline. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/24 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from the dateline east to 90W at up to -5.0 degs below normal centered at 140W. The density and volume of that cold water at depth was building. Warm anomalies were isolated to the area west of the dateline and building. La Nina is here. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/24) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from the Galapagos west to 175E with -10 cms between 100-170W and -15 cms expanding from 130-155W. It appears the cool pool is building but westward displaced. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (12/24) the cool pool is rebuilding filling the area from the dateline to Ecuador with a core at -2.0- to -2.5 degs below normal from 130W to 165W. A La Nina pattern is in play with now 6 pulses so far (the first showed in Feb). Warm water is limited west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer and building in coverage.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (12/31) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was filling the equatorial Pacific from 115W to 160E and strongest from 120W to the dateline but not present in the far East Pacific. We are in La Nina, but not strongly and it looks very much like a Modoki version (westward displaced).
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/31): A weak warming pattern was in control of the East Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 115W and mixed warm and cool west of there.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/1) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were steady at -0.515. They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/1) Today's temps were redounding some at -1.302 after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were falling after peaking at -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -1.1 week of 12/25, the coldest so far. Previously temps were -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27), -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.19 Nov, -0.26 Oct., -0.25 Sept, -0.11 August, +0.05 July, +0.18 June, +0.24 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.80 (SON), -0.75 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2.0 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec. Temps did not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as forecast.
Forecast (1/1/25) - Actual temps are now posted for the month of Dec and annihilated the CFS forecast where the forecast was -1.0 degs and actuals were -0.3 degs. The forecast is for temps falling to -1.05 in mid-Jan before rebounding to -0.35 in April 2025 and at 0.0 in Aug and beyond. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same steep drop with temps to -1.0 degs mid-Jan then rebounding as described above. We are moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The December 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.435 degs today (unchanged from last month) and is the 7th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps rise from here forward to above -0.2 degs in March (MAM). This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.594 in Dec and the Statistic down to -0.203 in Dec. In other words, we are at the peak of La Nina now. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/1/25) the Daily Index was negative at -1.97 today, and has been negative the last 3 days, but otherwise mostly positive for over a month now
The 30 day average was falling at +9.44 and has been building positive the last month and in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was steady at +7.17 and now moving weakly into La Nina territory.
We are in ENSO neutral status moving towards La Nina.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. In Nov the index final rose some to -3.24. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.