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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, January 2, 2020 4:34 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
4.5 - California & 4.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 12/30 thru Sun 1/5

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Swell #2 Peaking in CA
Weak Gale Pattern Forecast

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Thursday, January 2, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Barbers Point (Buoy 238) : Seas were 4.6 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 13.2 secs from 295 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 6.5 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 4.6 ft @ 13.5 secs from 315 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.7 ft @ 18.9 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 18.5 secs from 293 degrees. Wind at the buoy was east at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 60.3 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 8.7 ft @ 17.8 secs from 296 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.1 ft @ 18.9 secs from 257 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.9 ft @ 18.9 secs from 249 degrees. Southward at Torry Pines Outer (100) swell was 2.5 ft @ 18.8 secs from 270 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 14.0 ft @ 18.2 secs with swell 8.0 ft @ 17.8 secs from 288 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was north at 18-25 kts. Water temp 54.5 degs (013), 55.9 degs (012) and 56.3 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (12/31) in North and Central CA Swell #2 was producing waves at 15 ft and a bit ragged with light onshore winds and a fair amount of lump intermixed. Protected breaks were 3-4 ft overhead and ragged and disorganized. At Santa Cruz surf was 3-4 ft overhead and cleaner but still a bit warbled and foggy with low visibility. In Southern California/Ventura waves were 1-2 ft overhead and lined up and clean but a little bit closed out at times. In North Orange Co surf was head high and clean and lined up but lumpy. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were shoulder high or so and clean and lined up but very soft. North San Diego's best breaks had waves at 2-3 ft overhead and clean and lined up but inconsistent. Hawaii's North Shore was settling down but still decent with waves 3-4 ft overhead and lined up and clean with good form. The South Shore was getting rare sets at thigh high and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves head high and fairly clean early with modest northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (1/2) in California Swell #2 was fully hitting generated from a storm that developed well off South Japan on Fri-Sat (12/28) producing up to 59 ft seas just west of the dateline and crossed the dateline early Sun (12/29) with 53 ft seas and then faded through the day Mon (12/30). Smaller remnants of this swell were still hitting Hawaii. A bit of a break is to follow with a cutoff low forecast forming off Oregon on Fri (1/3) producing 23 ft seas aimed at the US West Coast. And some sort of a broad gale is forecast developing off the Kuril Islands Tues-Wed (1/8) producing 32 ft seas aimed east, but making no eastward progress.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (1/2) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan with winds to 150 kts reaching almost to the dateline trying to form a weak trough north of there possibly offering some support for low pressure development north of there then weakening considerably and almost splitting before reorganizing and ridging northeast over the Gulf of Alaska with winds building to 160 kts pushing into British Columbia supporting only high pressure south of it. Over the next 72 hours the trough off Japan is to push east and starting build midway to the dateline on Mon (1/6) being fed by 150 kts winds offering developing support for gale production. But to the east the jet is to become very split starting at 155W (north of Hawaii) east into the US West Coast with no support for gale development over that area. Beyond 72 hours on Tues (1/7) the trough off the Kuril Islands is to become better organized pushing to almost the dateline offering decent support for gale development and being fed by fractured pockets of 140-150 kts winds. But the split is to persist with the split point retrograding to 165W. By Thurs (1/9) the Kuril trough is to be lifting north and fading out but with a new pocket of 160 kts winds pushing off Japan and a new trough building off the Kuril Islands again offering support for gale development. The split is to persist from the dateline eastward with no support for gale development indicated from the dateline eastward. Clearly the MJO is not to be feeding energy into the jet for the next week.


Surface Analysis
On Thursday (1/2) reasonably large and longer period swell was hitting California and fading in Hawaii from Storm #2 that tracked through the Central North Pacific (see Storm #2 below).

Over the next 72 hours a cutoff gale is to form off the Pacific Northwest (see Cutoff Gale below).

 

Cutoff Gulf Gale
On Wed PM (1/1) a cutoff low developed 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii racing northeast producing a small area of north winds to 35 kts generating 18 ft seas at 40N 160W aimed south. The gale moved northeast on Thurs AM (1/2) with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas barely 20 ft at 40N 155W aimed south. The gale is to race east in the evening producing 30 kt northwest winds with seas 19 ft at 40N 150W aimed southeast. On Fri AM (1/3) the gale is to push up to the Pacific Northwest Coast producing 30-35 kt northwest winds with 21 ft seas at 43N 141W aimed east. Then gale is to move up to the Washington Coast in the evening with 35+ kt northwest winds and seas22-23 ft in the NCAl swell window at 47N 135W aimed southeast. Windswell to possibly push southeast into North and Central CA. Something to monitor.

NCal: For planning purposes expect swell arrival on Sat afternoon (1/4) pushing 9 ft @ 12-13 secs (11 ft) and shadowed in the SF Bay Area with local windchop building in between. Swell Direction : 310+ degrees

 

Storm #2
A storm started building just off Japan on Fri AM (12/27) with 55-60 kt northwest winds and seas building fast from 26 ft at 35N 150E aimed east. In the evening 55-60 kt northwest winds were tracking east mid-way to the dateline with 49 ft seas building at 36.5N 160.5E aimed east. On Sat AM (12/28) a broad area of 55 kt northwest and west winds were approaching the dateline with 58 ft seas at 36N 170E aimed east. In the evening the storm moved over the dateline with 45-50 kt west winds over a huge area aimed east and seas 57 ft at 38.5N 177.5E aimed east. The storm faded to gale status and stalled some over the dateline Sun AM (12/29) with 40-45 kt west winds still over a large area and seas fading from 48 ft at 39.5W 178W aimed east. The gale is to be fading in the evening with 35-40 kt west winds covering the dateline region and seas fading from 41 ft at 39.5N 174.5W aimed east. The gale is to dissipate Mon AM (12/30) with 30 kt west winds lifting northeast and seas fading from 33 ft at 41.5N 169.5W aimed east. Large, long period swell is in the water pushing east.

Hawaii (Oahu): Swell fading Thurs AM (1/2) from 5.2 ft @ 14 secs (7 ft Hawaiian). Swell Direction: 307-314 degrees

North CA: Swell starting to fade at sunrise Thurs (1/2) from 10.8 ft @ 17-18 secs (18.5 ft). Swell fading Fri AM (1/3) from 8.4 ft @ 15 secs (12.5 ft). Residuals fading on Sat AM (1/4) from 4.2 ft @ 14 sec (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 290-291 degrees

Southern CA: Swell holding at peak size at sunrise Thurs (1/2) at 4.9 ft @ 19 secs (9.0 ft) holding till mid-afternoon. Swell fading Fri AM (1/3) from 4.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (6.5 ft). Residuals fading on Sat AM (1/4) from 2.7 ft @ 14 sec (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 293-294 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thurs (1/2) high pressure and north winds were in control with north winds 20 kts for Pt Arena and up to 25 kts southward to Pt Conception and slowly fading in coverage but still 20 kts over the same area at the end of the day. No precipitation is forecast. On Fri (1/3) high pressure is to fade while low pressure builds off the Pacific Northwest with a light wind pattern in control for North and Central CA. Light rain for Cape Mendocino over the evening. On Sat (1/4) a high pressure front is to be pushing south with north winds from Pt Arena southward to Pt Conception building to 20 kts over the entire area later. Rain fading early from Pt Reyes northward. Sun (1/5) north winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA as high pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest. Light rain for Cape Mendocino mainly early. Mon (1/6) north-northeast winds are forecast at 15 kts nearshore for all of North and Central CA all day. Tues (1/7) a light northeast wind flow is forecast at 10 kts for all of North and Central CA all day. No precip forecast. Wed (1/8) north winds are forecast at 10 kts early for all of North and Central CA and up to 15 kts near Pt Conception building to 15+ kts everywhere later. Thurs (1/9) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts all day for North and Central CA.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches respectively.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch is occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Mon AM (1/6) a broad complex gale is to form off North Japan and the Kuril Islands producing pockets of 35- 45 kt northwest winds producing a small area of developing seas at 22 ft seas at 36N 168E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to build producing 45 kt northwest winds and seas to 32 ft back west at 40N 155E aimed east. 35-45 kt northwest winds to hold into Tues AM (1/7) resulting in up to 37 ft seas at 44N 161E aimed southeast. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 40 kts with seas fading from 33 ft at 43.5N 168E aimed southeast. Fetch is to fade from 30-35 kts on Wed AM (1/8) with 27 ft seas fading at 43N 175E aimed southeast. maybe some swell to result for Hawaii.

On Wed PM (1/8) a new storm is forecast developing off Japan with 50 kt west winds and seas building from 30 ft over a small area at 34N 155E aimed east. The gale is to lift northeast on Thurs AM (1/9) with 40 kt west winds and 35 ft seas at 36.5N 167E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be racing northeast on the dateline with 45-50 kt west winds and seas 34 ft at 43N 175E aimed east. Something to monitor.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Inactive MJO Forecast - Warm Anomalies Slowly Building in East Pac

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/1) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing to the dateline then turning from the west over the southern KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the far East equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and dateline then turning moderate west filling the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (1/2) moderate west anomalies were over the dateline today with weak east anomalies in the far west KWGA. The forecast calls for west anomalies holding on the dateline through 1/5, then moving east of the KWGA with east anomalies building in from the west and getting strong on 1/6 and holding till the end of the model run on 1/9.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (1/1) A neutral MJO signal was over the KWGA. The statistic model indicates a dead neutral MJO pattern holding for the next 15 days. The dynamic model indicates the same thing initially but with an Inactive Pattern developing on the dateline at day 5 the moving just east of the dateline at day 10 and very strong while a strong Active Phase builds over the Maritime Continent slowly tracking east and moving into the west KWGA at day 15 while the Inactive Phase moves east and out of the KWGA.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (1/2) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Gulf of Mexico today and is to ease east moving to the maritime Continent and very weak at day 15 of the model run. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase is to race east and building strongly over the Maritime Continent at day 8 pushing towards the far West Pacific at day 15 while weakening to moderate status.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (1/2) This model depicts a weak Inactive MJO over the West Pacific today and somewhat filling the North Pacific. The Inactive Phase is to push east and over Central America on 1/17 while a modest Active MJO signal eases cleanly over the West Pacific on 1/20 pushing to the East Pacific and Central America at the end of the model run on 2/11. A weak Inactive Phase is to start setting up over the far west KWGA on 2/11.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/1) This model depicts a fading Active Phase over the KWGA with solid west anomalies filling the KWGA today. The Active Phase is to push east and out of the KWGA on 1/4 while the Inactive Phase develops in the West Pacific pushing east through the KWGA 1/4-1/18. East anomalies are to develop in the far West KWGA 1/4-1/5 but with weak west anomalies holding in the coast of the KWGA. And then starting 1/13 solid west anomalies are to develop in the core of the KWGA holding through the end of the model run on 1/29.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/2) This model depicts a very weak Inactive Phase of the MJO was over the KWGA but with modest west anomalies over the KWGA. Westerly wind anomalies are to hold in some weak capacity into 1/5 and being replaced with weak east anomalies till 1/14. Then starting 1/15 the Active Phase is to develop tracking east through the KWGA 2/10 with weak to modest west anomalies holding through that period. After that a neutral MJO pattern is forecast through the end of the model run on 4/1 but with weak west anomalies holding but getting steadily weaker through the end of the model run. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 3 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to the California coast. the third contour lined is to fade on 1/8 while the second contour line holds till 3/18, then collapse. A high pressure bias built in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22 and is to hold through the end of the model run. A strong area of east anomalies in the Indian Ocean is forecast to significantly weaken by 2/27 and is to fade to almost nothing directly after. At no point is it to move into the KWGA.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/2) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was rebuilding east to 175E while the 29 deg isotherm was building east to 172W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 162W today. The 24 deg isotherm retrograding to 106W after previously pushing into Ecuador. Anomaly wise, Kelvin Wave #6 was under the dateline at +3 degs tracking from the Maritime Continent moving east with it's leading edge at 145W pushing east. Kelvin Wave #5 had fully pushed into Ecuador. Warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific from 110 meters upwards. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/24 indicates warm water had formed a Kelvin Wave extending from 120E under the Dateline east to 120W at +2-3 degrees with lesser warm water pushing east from there then rebuilding to +2-4 degrees and impacting Ecuador. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/29) A broad pocket of +5 cms anomalies is tracking east between 165E-115W. Very weak positive anomalies were in a pocket along Ecuador.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (1/1) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate weak warm anomalies were holding from Chile along Peru up to Ecuador then streaming west on the equator over the Galapagos out to the dateline from 10S northward. Weak cool anomalies were south of the equator off Peru reaching no further north than 10S reaching west to 115W. Weak warm anomalies were on and north of the equator building while tracking west to the dateline.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/31): Today a building area of warming was filling the entire area from Chile and Peru steaming west out to 110W and also off Ecuador on the equator out to 140W and stronger in pockets. Only one pocket of cooling was interspersed on the equator at 100W and fading. The short term trend is now towards warming in the Southeast Pacific. This is a step in the right direction.
Hi-res Overview: (12/31) A weak fading area of cool anomalies is trying to hold on south of the equator off Peru reaching out to 120W but further south than weeks past. Otherwise gentle warming was along Chile up to Peru lifting north up to Ecuador then pushing west on the equator, out to the dateline. Warmer than normal water was north of the equator reaching north to 20N. Water temps appear to be stable mildly favoring El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/2) Today's temps were falling some at -0.483 after bottoming out down at -0.900 on 12/12. Temps peaked prior at +1.55 degrees on 12/2 after a long runup from negative anomalies in October. It now appears we are in a falling trend.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(1/2) Temps were rising some today at +0.315. Temps peaked on 11/14 at +0.509 degs, fell some to -0.018 on 11/28, and are now trying to rebuild. The trend has been steadily generally upwards since Sept when they bottomed out at -0.6 degs (9/14).

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (12/31) Actual's indicate a cooling trend set up late summer with temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept then the trend started rising to +0.25 degs in early Oct holding to Dec 1. The forecast has temps rising to +0.7 degrees on Jan 1 holding till Feb 1 then slowly falling from there to 0.0 on June 25 then diving negative appearing to be moving to La Nina down at -0.5 in early Sept. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for the Winter and Spring, then possibly turning towards La Nina in the Summer.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.25 degs, and are to hold in the +0.25 deg range into May 2020, then fading slightly to +0.15 in June 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (1/2): The daily index was negative today at -17.42 and has been negative the last 22 days. The 30 day average was negative and falling at -8.42. The 90 day average was rising slightly at -6.97, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): Nov +1.03, Oct +0.33 Sept +1.13, August +0.64, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (12/29):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R10DBCPeNcA&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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