Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 13.4 secs from 280 degrees. Water temp 78.1 (Barbers Pt), 77.9 (Pearl Harbor 233), 78.4 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from 321 degrees. Water temp NA
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 7.5 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 6.3 ft @ 13.5 secs from 313 degrees. Water temp 77.2 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 6.9 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 4.7 ft @ 15.3 secs from 304 degrees. Wind east-northeast at 8-10 kts. Water temperature 56.5 degs, 55.9 (Harvest 071), 56.3 (Topanga 103), 57.6 (Long Beach 215), 55.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 56.7 (Del Mar 153), 57.9 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.7 ft @ 14.9 secs from 309 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.0 ft @ 15.2 secs from 287 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 16.1 secs from 276 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 0.8 ft @ 16.0 secs from 252 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.0 ft @ 16.4 secs from 244 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.5 ft @ 16.0 secs from 278 degrees. Water temperature was 55.2 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 5.6 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 14.5 secs from 292 degrees. Wind east-southeast 2-4 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and north 4-5 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NNE 12 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.0 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.6 (San Francisco 46026), 53.2 (SF Bar 142), 54.0 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 52.5 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 53.4 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (1/14) in North and Central CA waves were 1-2 ft overhead on the sets and lined up and clean with decent form. Protected breaks had set to head high and super lined up if not closed out and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to shoulder high on the sets and lined up with good form and clean but a little soft. In Ventura County surf was knee high on the sets and lined up and clean with good form. Central Orange County was thigh high and and soft but clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were flat and clean. North San Diego had sets at thigh high and lined up and clean with decent form but soft. Oahu's North Shore was 1-2 ft overhead and lined up and fairly clean but with some intermixed warble early. The South Shore had a few thigh high sets and very clean and soft. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high and warbled from modest east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (1/14) California was getting fading energy from a small gale that developed while tracking east over the north Dateline Thurs-Fri (1/10) producing 44 ft seas aimed east and secondary energy from another gale that develop in the Northwestern Gulf Fri-Sat (1/12) producing 43 ft seas aimed. And Hawaii was getting swell from a gale that developed while moving from the Dateline to the Northwestern Gulf Fri-Sun (1/12) with 28-32 ft seas initially aimed east then lifted northeast with 37 ft seas over the Northwestern Gulf. Another is forecast tracking east from Japan Mon-Tues (1/14) with up to 42 ft seas aimed east on the Dateline Wed (1/15) then fading in the far Western Gulf on Thurs (1/16). Perhaps another to follow on it's heels Sat-Sun (1/19) with up to 29 ft seas and on a slightly more northerly track. Then things are to quiet down.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (1/14) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan with winds 180 kts reaching just east of the dateline then splitting with most energy continuing northeast tracking up into Central Canada. A trough was well established half way to Japan tracking east offering good support for gale formation. The split point was locked 700 nmiles north of Hawaii. Over the next 72 hours the Japan trough is to track east reaching the Northwestern Gulf early Thurs (1/16) and weakening as winds build to 190-200 kts back to the west over a small area but with no clearly defined troughs indicated. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (1/18) the jet is to remain consolidated from Japan to the same split point north of Hawaii but with winds fading down to 180-190 kts limited to one small pocket extending east from about the dateline to the split point with a trough off the Kurils and a pinched trough in the Western Gulf offering limited support for gale formation but the jet weak and split east of there offering nothing. The Kuril trough is forecast to build some while tracking east to the Western Gulf on Mon (1/20) offering better support for gale formation and then digging out more early on Tues (1/21) being fed by 180 kts winds offering yet better support before pinching off later in the day and fading. regardless, the split point is to hold with an impenetrable ridge over the US West Coast. At 180 hrs to the west the jet is to remain consolidated running east from Japan to the split point with winds up to 150 kts in 2 pockets and definitely weaker than at any time over the previous month.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (1/14) swell was fading in California from a storm previously over the North Dateline region (see North Dateline Storm below) and secondary energy from a gale over the Northern Gulf (see North Gulf Gale below). And swell was fading in Hawaii from a small gale that developed over the dateline Fri-Sat (1/11) with energy propagating towards the US West Coast (see Small Dateline Gale below). And a final storm was developing tracking from Japan to the dateline with swell likely for Hawaii and the US West Coast (see Japan-Dateline Storm below).

North Dateline Storm
And another small gale developed just west of the dateline Wed PM (1/8) producing west winds at 35-40 kts and seas building from 20 ft. On Thurs AM (1/9) west winds were 45-50 kts on the dateline with seas 40 ft at 46N 176.25E aimed east. In the evening the gale was tracking into the Northwestern Gulf with 45-50 kt west winds and seas 43 ft over a modest area at 47.75N 175.5W aimed east. Fetch tracked northeast Fri AM (1/10) while fading from 35-40 kts in the far Northwestern Gulf with seas fading from 36 ft at 51.5N 168.25W aimed east and impacting the Eastern Aleutians. Fetch dissipated from there. Something to monitor.

North CA: Swell fading Tues (1/14) from 3.4 ft @ 14 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 304 degrees

North Gulf Gale
On Fri AM (1/10) secondary fetch developed south of the gale above with 45-50 kt west winds and seas building from 28 ft at 42N 170W aimed east. In the evening 50-55 kt west winds were lifting northeast with seas 40 ft at 47.5N 161.75W aimed east. Fetch was tracking northeast Sat AM (1/11) while fading and now over the Northern Gulf at 45-50 kts with seas 40 ft up at 52.5N 152.5W aimed east.

North CA: Expect swell fading Tues (1/14) intermixed with swell from the North Dateline Storm (see above). Swell Direction: 307 degrees

Small Dateline Gale
Also on Fri PM (1/10) another small gale developed a bit west of the dateline with 40-45 kts west winds and seas building from 32 ft at 38N 168E aimed east. On Sat AM (1/11) ) west winds were 45 kts moving over the dateline while lifting northeast fast with seas 30 ft at 42N 178W aimed east. Fetch was building in the evening at 45-50 kts in the Northwestern Gulf with seas 37 ft at 44.25N 169W. On Sun AM (1/12) west winds were 40-45 kts lifting northeast over the Northern Gulf with seas 35 ft at 48.5N 160.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be in the far Northern Gulf at 40 kts poised to move inland over Alaska with seas fading fast from 35 ft at 54N 153.25W aimed east. The gale is to be inland after that. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Swell fading Tues (1/14) from 5.0 ft @ 14 secs early (7.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (1/15) fading from 4.1 ft @ 12-13 secs early (5.0-5.5.ft). Dribbles on Thurs (1/16) fading from 3.5 ft @ 12 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (1/15) before sunrise building to 4.9 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-AM (7.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (1/16) from 4.7 ft @ 14 secs early (6.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (1/17) fading from 3.7 ft @ 13 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 295-296 degrees

Japan-Dateline Storm
A somewhat more interesting storm developed just east of Japan Mon AM (1/13) with 50 kt northwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 37.5N 149E aimed east. In the evening the storm continued east with 45-50 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 35.5N 154.5E aimed east. On Tues AM (1/14) west winds were 50 kts moving half way to the dateline with seas 36 ft at 37N 164.25E aimed east. In the evening west winds to be 45-50 kts approaching the dateline with seas 41 ft at 39N 168E aimed east. Fetch fading some Wed AM (1/15) from 45 kts over the dateline with seas 42 ft at 39.75N 174E aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening from 40-45 kts straddling the dateline with seas fading from 40 ft at 40.75N 179.5W aimed east. Fetch fading Thurs AM (1/16) from 35 kts with seas fading from 33 ft at 41.25N 172.25W aimed east. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Fri (1/17) building to 7.8 ft @ 17-18 secs at sunset (13.5 ft). Swell Direction: 313 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (1/14) a light pressure pattern takes over with north to northeast winds 5 kts early for North and Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts nearshore for North CA and calm to 5 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Thurs AM (1/15) northeast winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA and east 1-5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds and high pressure start building for Cape Mendocino at 10-15 kts and 5-10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Fri AM (1/16) high pressure and a weak gradient take over with northwest winds 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts from Pt Arena southward and over all of Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds build at 20- 25 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 15 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA.
Sat AM (1/17) the gradient fades some with northwest winds 10-15 kts nearshore for North CA but 20 kts off the coast and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds build some at 15-20 kts for most of North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA.
Sun AM (1/18) northwest winds to be 20+ kts early for all of North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 20 kts off the coast for Central CA but 10-15 kts nearshore. No precip forecast.
Mon AM (1/19) north-northeast winds to be 10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon the gradient dissipates with northeast winds 10 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA.
Tues AM (1/20) a weak pressure pattern sets up with calm winds early for North CA and northeast 5 kts for Central CA early. No precip is forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches. Impenetrable high pressure is in control over the entire US West Coast.

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level building to 10.500 ft 1/14-1/15 before falling to 8,200 ft 1/16 down to 7,000 ft 1/17 then rising some to 9,000 ft 1/18 and holding there beyond. A continuation of a generally warm and dry pattern is expected and certainly not consistent with a 'normal' Winter. An Inactive MJO the likely culprit

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell is in the water and no swell producing fetch is occurring. .

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours some degree of secondary energy is forecast developing in the Far Western Gulf from remnants of the Japan-Dateline Gale (above) starting Thurs PM (1/16) producing west winds at 35-40 kts and seas 28 ft over a small area at 38.25N 177.75E aimed east. Fetch fading Fri AM (1/17) from 35 kts while moving east with seas 23 ft at 38N 175W aimed east. Fetch fading after that.

Another fetch of west winds is to build on Fri AM (1/17) just northwest of the previous fetch with west winds 40 kts and seas building. Fetch tracking east in the evening at 40 kts moving over the dateline with seas 25 ft at 45N 179W aimed east. On Sat AM (1/18) fetch is to be fading in the Western Gulf from 30 kts with seas 22 ft at 44N 170W.

Another small gale is forecast developing off the South Kuril Islands Fri PM (1/17) with 40 kts west winds and seas 27 ft at 42N 156.25E aimed east. On Sat AM (1/18) west winds to build to 50 kts with seas 29 ft at 43N 160.75E aimed east. In the evening west winds to fade from 40 kts with seas 29 ft at 40.5N 167.75E aimed east. On Sun AM (1/19) west winds to be 35 kts approaching the dateline with seas 26 ft at 41N 175.25E aimed east. In the evening west winds hold at 40 kts with seas 28 ft at 43.25N 177.75W aimed east. Fetch fading out from there.

Modoki La Nina in Control
MJO Pattern Now 'Unstuck'
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 5 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific, with a 6th one underway now. The atmosphere is in a weak La Nina mode focused on the dateline, but not expected to build or move much beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/13) 5 day average winds were moderate from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak west over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/14) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA and modest west anomalies isolated over the Maritime Continent. The forecast indicates moderate to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA 1/15 until 1/17 then building to strong if not very strong status 1/18 and holding the end of the model run on 1/3. West anomalies are to hold at modest status till 1/18 over the Maritime Continent then building to strong if not very strong status starting 1/23 and holding while building in coverage through the end of the model run. It looks like a possible repeat of December is setting up for late January, with the Active Phase over the Maritime Continent feeding strong energy into the jetstream allowing it to cross the West Pacific. This might be a good pattern longer term.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (1/13) Currently a strong Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was developing over the West KWGA. The statistic model depicts a strong Inactive Phase (dry air) filling the KWGA on day 5 of the model continuing on days 10 and 15 at strong status becoming more focused over the dateline. The dynamic model depicts the exact same thing. A strong Active Phase is to be building in the Indian Ocean moving to the Maritime Continent on days 10 and 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (1/14) - The models depicts the Active Phase was modest over Africa. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the Central Indian Ocean somewhere between very weak and strong strength. The dynamic model depicts it building to strong status over the Indian Ocean 6 days out then fading to weak status over the East Maritime Continent 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (1/14) This model depicts a moderate Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) filling the KWGA and forecast moving slowly east then fading on 1/24. A weak Active Phase (wet air) is to be developing over the KWGA 1/29 and tracking east the end of the model run on 2/23.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/13) Today the Active Phase of the MJO was effectively gone moving east of the KWGA with moderate east anomalies still in control of the whole of the KWGA and the Inactive Phase building over the West KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to track east and filling the KWGA through 1/30 with strong east anomalies in control then fading some 2/3 but still at moderate strength holding through the end of the model run on 2/10. West anomalies are to be building over the Maritime Continent reaching strong status 1/20-2/3 and starting to move into the far West KWGA 2/5 and beyond with Active Phase contour right at the entrance to the West Pacific at the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/14) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase of the MJO was fading over the eastern half of the KWGA but with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has east anomalies effectively filling the KWGA into mid-Feb. The current Active Phase and it's contours are to track east and gone from the KWGA on 1/18. A moderate Inactive Phase is already over the West KWGA today tracking east through 2/7 with east anomalies filling the KWGA building to strong status 1/20-1/27. A weak Active Phase is to follow 2/1 through 3/5 but with weak east anomalies mostly filling the KWGA until 2/18 when weak west anomalies finally take over the KWGA through the end of the model run. A weak MJO pattern is to follow beyond but with neutral to weak west anomalies filling the KWGA as noted before. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour and is to hold through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias returned over the dateline 11/16 with 1 contour line with a second 12/7 and a third forecast developing 1/16 holding to 3/21 then fading. This suggests a stronger and later developing La Nina pattern than is normal developing. This is not as hoped for but also not in line with any other model. Regardless, the CFS modes seems to always have an early lead on newly developing trends (if a little bit overhyped).

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/14) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 162E. The 29 degree isotherm was reaching east to 168E. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 177E. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador (previously 140W). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West and East Pacific with a fading pocket of strongly cooler anomalies present in between down 125 meter centered at 139W at -3 degs extending from 110-165W filling the Central Pacific thermocline. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/8 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from the dateline east to 90W at up to -5.0 degs below normal centered at 130W. The density and volume of that cold water at depth was building. Warm anomalies were isolated to the area west of the dateline and building. La Nina is here. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/8) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from the Galapagos west to 175W with -10 cms between 110W-170W and -15 cms expanding from 125W-160W. It appears the cool pool is fading some but westward displaced. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/8) the cool pool is fading in coverage some compared to 2 weeks ago but still filling the area from just east of the dateline to just off Ecuador with a core at -2.0- to -2.5 degs below normal from 122W to 157W. A La Nina pattern is in play with 6 pulses so far (the first showed in Feb). Warm water is limited west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer and building in coverage.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/13) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was filling the equatorial Pacific from 120W to 165E and strongest from 145W to 175W but not present in the far East or West Pacific. We are in La Nina, but not strongly and it looks very much like a Modoki version (westward displaced).
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/13): A warming trend was mostly in control of the East Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 120W with 1 small embedded cool pocket and mixed warm and cool anomalies west of there balanced more towards cooling.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/14) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were falling at -0.596 after holding for a week near -0.289 (-0.275 1/3). They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/14) Today's temps were rising at -1.090 after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.7 week of 1/1 and 1/8 , rising some from the previous week. Previously temps were -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27), -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.55 Sec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.91 (OND), -0.82 (SON), -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2.0 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec and -0.75 in Jan. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasts.
Forecast (1/14/25) - Actual temps are now posted for Jan (and did the same as the month of Dec) where actuals annihilated the CFS forecast (warmer than projected). The forecast was -1.0 degs and actuals were -0.7 degs. The forecast is for temps falling to -.0.90 in mid-Feb before rebounding to -0.40 in April 2025 and at -0.25 in Aug and beyond. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same with a drop to -0.9 degs mid-Feb then rebounding as described above. In all it looks like we're moving into a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The December 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.435 degs today (unchanged from last month) and is the 7th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps rise from here forward to above -0.2 degs in March (MAM). This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.594 in Dec and the Statistic down to -0.203 in Dec. In other words, we are at the peak of La Nina now. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/14/25) the Daily Index was negative at -18.41 and mostly negative the last 16 days, but otherwise mostly positive before that.
The 30 day average was falling at +0.73 and has been falling the entire last 30 day, not longer in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was falling at +5.55 and retreating from La Nina territory.
We are in ENSO neutral status moving towards La Nina.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. In Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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