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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, January 18, 2020 4:10 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
4.2 - California & 3.8 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 1/20 thru Sun 1/26

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

2 Gales Moving Through Gulf
Two Stronger Gales Forecast for Dateline

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Saturday, January 18, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Barbers Point (Buoy 238) : Seas were 5.7 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 4.4 ft @ 11.2 secs from 320 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 10.4 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 6.6 ft @ 11.5 secs from 328 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 13.8 secs from 234 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 0-2 kts. Water temperature 59.7 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.6 ft @ 10,3 secs from 302 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 11.7 secs from 266 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.5 ft @ 11.8 secs from 256 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.6 ft @ 9.5 secs from 277 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 10.2 secs from 295 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northeast at 2-4 kts. Water temp 52.9 degs (013), 55.0 degs (012) and 54.7 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (1/18) in North and Central CA minimal local windswell was producing waves at waist to maybe chest high and clean with light offshore winds but weak. Protected breaks were waist high on the sets and clean and very soft. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high and lined up and clean but soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high on the sets and clean and soft. In North Orange Co surf was waist to chest high on the bigger sets and clean and lined up if not closed out but generally weak. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were waist high on the peaks of the bigger sets and clean. North San Diego's best breaks had waves at waist to almost chest high on the bigger sets and clean and lined up. Hawaii's North Shore was getting solid northwest windswell with waves 2-3 ft overhead and clean but a bit warbled and incoherent with not particularly good form. The South Shore was flat and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves 1 ft overhead and chopped from moderate plus strength northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (1/18) in California no swell of any interest was hitting. In Hawaii locally generated windswell was hitting generated from a high pressure system that was passing north of the Islands. The good news is a significant pattern change is underway. A small gale built in the Gulf on Thurs-Fri (1/17) falling southeast producing up to 31 ft seas aimed southeast. And another gale developed on the dateline late Thurs (1/16) pushing into the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska Fri-Sat (1/18) producing a moderate area of up to 36 ft seas and forecast pushing southeast into Sun (1/19). That gale is to redevelop off North CA Mon-Tues (1/21) producing up to 29 ft seas targeting North CA well. And another gale is to build off Japan tracking over form on the southern dateline region Sun-Tues (1/21) producing up to 43 ft seas aimed east before fading in the Western Gulf on Wed (1/22) with seas dropping from 30 ft. And yet one more is to form right behind on the dateline Thurs-Fri (1/24) with 44 ft seas aimed east. The Active Phase of the MJO is starting to have the desired effect.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (1/18) the jetstream was fairly consolidated pushing east off Japan with winds to 150 kts in two pockets pushing over the dateline roughly centered on the 35N latitude line and remaining consolidated to a point just northeast of Hawaii then splitting and pushing into the Pacific Northwest. A broad trough was set up over the Northern Gulf offering some support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the trough in the Gulf is to deepen and build being fed by 140 kts winds offering improved support for gale development and pushing up to the Pacific Northwest coast on Tues (1/21). Back to the west on Tuesday the jet is to tighten up with winds building to 160 kts solid streaming flat from Japan to the Western Gulf aligned on the 34N latitude line with a new trough building over the North Dateline region and another off the North Kuril Islands offering support there for gale development. Beyond 72 hours both troughs are to push southeast with the leading one in the Gulf and the second over the Dateline on Thurs (1/23) offering support for gale development. By Fri (1/24) both troughs are to merge over the Northwestern Gulf being fed by a well consolidated flow with winds 150 kts in pockets offering good support for gale development there and holding into Sat (1/25). A vastly improved upper level pattern is forecast.


Surface Analysis
On Saturday (1/18) swell from a gale in the Gulf was pushing southeast (see Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours an improved pattern is forecast with a gale tracking through the Northwestern Gulf (see Northwestern Gulf Gale below) followed by a redevelopment of it's remnants (see Gulf Gale Part 2 below).

Gulf Gale
On Thurs PM (1/16) a small gale started building in the Northwestern Gulf falling southeast producing 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas building from 18 ft at 45N 157W aimed southeast. That fetch built in coverage on Fri AM (1/17) with northwest winds 45-50 kts and seas building to 31 ft at 42.5N 149.5W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale was sweeping east producing 40 kt west winds a bit off Southern Oregon with 30 ft seas at 42.5N 141W aimed east. On Sat AM (1/18) the gale was isolated just off the Central Canadian Coast producing 30 kt west winds off the Pacific Northwest with residual seas 25 ft off Oregon at 45N 134W with swell from it radiating towards the CA coast. Something to monitor.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on late night Sat (1/180 with period 16 secs and size peaking just before sunrise at 8.1 ft @ 15 secs (12 ft). Swell fading slowly through the day. Swell Direction: 292-299 degrees

 

Northwest Gulf Gale
Another low pressure system developed off Japan on Wed (1/15) tracking northeast fast then regrouped over the North Dateline region Thurs PM (1/16) producing 40 kt northwest winds with seas 27 ft at 45.5N 178.5E aimed east. On Fri AM (1/17) 40 kt northwest winds were falling southeast in the Northwestern Gulf with 30 ft seas up at 47.5N 175W aimed southeast. The gale was reorganizing in the evening producing a solid area of 40-45 kt northwest winds tracking southeast through the Northwestern Gulf with 36 ft seas building at 46.5N 168.5W aimed southeast. On Sat AM (1/18) the gale was tracking southeast with 35-40 kt northwest winds in the Central Gulf generating 35 ft seas at 44N 161W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to track east while fading with 35 kt northwest winds and seas 31 ft at 42.5N 154.5W aimed southeast. Remnant energy is to be fading Sun AM (1/19) with 25 kts northwest winds losing coverage and seas fading from 25 ft at 41N 148W aimed southeast. The gale is to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Sideband swell to arrive later Sun (1/19) pushing 6.1 ft @ 15-16 secs at sunset (9.5 ft). Swell fading Mon AM (1/20) from 5.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (7.5 ft). Dribbles on Tues AM (1/21) fading from 3.8 ft @ 12 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 330-335 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival just past sunset on Mon (1/20) with swell period 17-18 secs and size building and peaking overnight at 8.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (13 ft). Swell holding Tues (1/21) at 8.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (12 ft). More swell possibly building in behind from Part 2 of this system (see below). Swell Direction: 291-296 degrees

 

Gulf Gale (Part 2)
Remnants of the Northwestern Gulf Gale (see above) are to start redeveloping in the Central Gulf on Sun AM (1/19) producing a small area of 40 kt northwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 42N 158W aimed southeast. The tiny gale is to track east in the evening with winds building to 40 kts from the west and seas building to 28 ft at 40N 148W aimed east. On Mon AM (1/20) 40 kt northwest winds are to be approaching the North CA coast with 23-28 ft seas at 40N 142W aimed east. In the evening west winds at 35 kts are to be just off Cape Mendocino CA with 28 ft seas at 42N 138W aimed east. The gale is to fade off the OR-CA border on Tues AM (1/21) with seas fading from 27 ft at 41N 131W aimed east. Something to monitor

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Sat (1/18) a front is to be impacting Cape Mendocino early with south winds 15 kts from Pt Arena northward and up to 30 kts on the border with light south winds down to Pt Reyes fading through the day but still 20+ kts for Cape Mendocino at sunset. Rain moving no further south than Cape Mendocino. No snow for the Sierra. On Sun (1/19) light winds are forecast for all of North and Central CA. No rain is forecast. Mon (1/20) south winds are forecast building into for North CA to 15-20 kts late afternoon down to Bodega Bay and 5-10 kts for Central CA mainly in the afternoon. Rain developing for Cape Mendocino late afternoon into the evening. Tues (1/21) southwest winds are forecast north of Pt Conception 10-15 kts but up to 20 kts for Cape Mendocino early fading and turning west at 15 kts for North Ca and turning calm south of there. Rain expected all day for North CA reaching south to Big Sur late afternoon. Modest snow for mainly the tahoe region during the day and fading in the evening. Wed (1/22) northwest winds are to be 5-10 kts for NCal and 10-15 kts for Central CA building to 20 kts later. Light rain for Cape Mendocino. Thurs (1/23) north winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA all day. Light showers for Cape Mendocino. Friday (1/24) north winds is forecast at 5-10 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA all day. No precip forecast. Sat (1/25) a light north flow is forecast for all of North and Central CA. No precipitation is forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 11, 14, 8 and 1 inches respectively.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch is occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours two more gale are forecast:

On Sun AM (1/19) a small storm is to be developing off North Japan tracking east with 50 kt west winds and seas building from 37 ft at 35.5N 160E aimed east. in the evening 45 kt west winds are to be tracking east with seas to 43 ft at 37N 167E aimed east. On Mon AM (1/20) the gale is to be approaching the dateline with 40 kt west winds and seas 40 ft at 38.5N 174.5E aimed east. The gale is to track east over the dateline in the evening with 40 kt west winds and seas 38 ft at 39N 178.5W aimed east. On Tues AM (1/21) the gale is to be moving into the Western Gulf with a building area of 40 kt northwest winds and seas 37 ft at 38N 172,5W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to push east with 35-40 kts northwest winds over a solid area and seas 35 ft at 38.5W 166.5W aimed east. More of the same is expected Wed AM (1/22) with 35 kt west winds and seas fading from 32 ft at 39N 159.5W aimed east. The gale is to fade in the evening with 30 kt west winds and 27 ft seas at 38N 153W aimed east. The gale is to fade from there.

And yet another gale is to be behind that developing off the Kuril Islands Tues PM (1/21) with 40-45 kts north west winds over a smallish area and seas building from 24 ft at 41N 163E aimed southeast. The gale is to be building while approaching r the dateline Wed AM (1/22) with 45-50 kt northwest winds and seas building from 33 ft at 43.5N 167E aimed east. In the evening winds are to be 45 kts just west of the dateline with 40 ft seas at 42N 173.5E aimed east. More of the same is forecast Thurs AM (1/23) with the gale creeping east producing 37 ft seas at 42.5N 176.5E aimed southeast. The gale is to stall in the evening with 40 kt northwest winds and seas 35 ft at 43.5N 177.5E aimed southeast. On Fri AM (1/24) a rapid decline is to set in with winds fading from 35 kts and seas dropping from 28 ft over a broad area at 40N 175W aimed east and southeast. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Strong Active MJO In Control

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/17) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing but weaker approaching the dateline and then turning very hard westerly over the Southern KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific turning neutral over the Central Pacific then moderate westerly over the dateline and strong westerly over all the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (1/18) strong west anomalies were filling the KWGA. East anomalies were strong east of the KWGA filling the East Pacific. The forecast calls for moderate to strong west anomalies holding in the KWGA through 1/21 then fading to moderate plus strength through the end of the model run on 1/25. East anomalies are to fade over the East Pacific starting 1/20 and then gone by 1/24.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (1/17) A solid Active MJO signal was filling the KWGA. The statistic model indicates the Active Phase is forecast slowly easing east but still filling the KWGA at the end of the model run 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the same thing but with the Active Phase weakening to weak status at day 15. The 2 models are generally in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (1/18) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was strong over the far West Pacific today and is to track east to the Gulf of Mexico at day 15 at weak status. The GEFS model suggests the same thing, but quickly tracking east back to the Maritime Continent at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (1/18) This model depicts a strong Active MJO over the Central Pacific today but filling the entirety of the equatorial Pacific. The Active Phase is to push east while slowly losing strength pushing into Central America on 2/7 while a moderate Inactive MJO signal eases into the West Pacific on 1/28 pushing to the East Pacific and then into Central America at the end of the model run on 2/27. A modest Active Phase is to be building over the West Pacific 2/17 pushing to the Central Pacific at the end of the mode run on 2/27.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/17) This model depicts the Active Phase was filling the KWGA today with strong west anomalies filling the KWGA. Moderate east anomalies were over the East Pacific. The Active Phase is to build with strong west anomalies filling the KWGA through 1/27. Beyond that the Active Phase is to fade out but west anomalies are to hold though weaker 1/28 through then end of the model run on 2/14. East anomalies are to die in the East Pacific with west anomalies pushing into California 1/22-1/30.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/18) This model depicts the Active Phase filling the West KWGA with strong west anomalies there while east anomalies were over the East Pacific with a fading Inactive Phase exiting east there. The Active Phase of the MJO is to build while tracking east through the KWGA with strong west anomalies on the dateline through 1/23 and weakening into 2/3 when the Active Phase fades. A neutral MJO is expected into 2/13 with weak to modest west anomalies in control. A weak Active Phase is forecast to follow 2/17-3/6 but with weak to moderate west anomalies holding in the KWGA. A weak Inactive Phase is forecast developing 3/7 through 3/21 with west anomalies fading some only to rebuild as the Active Phase again sets up 3/23 through the end of the model run on 4/16 . The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to the California coast. The second contour line is to hold for the foreseeable future. A high pressure bias built in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22/19 and is to hold through the end of the model run. A strong area of east anomalies in the Indian Ocean is forecast to hold to 2/5 then weaken but not gone.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/18) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was retrograding from 180W to 178E while the 29 deg isotherm was retrograding from 170W to 173W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking from 157W to 164W today. The 24 deg isotherm previously was pushing into Ecuador but retrograded to 107W today. Anomaly wise, Kelvin Wave #6 was under the dateline at +2 degs tracking from the Maritime Continent moving east with it's leading edge at 105W pushing east. Warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific from 110 meters upwards. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/13 indicates warm water had formed a Kelvin Wave extending from 120E under the Dateline east to 100W at +2 degrees with lesser warm water pushing east from there then rebuilding to +4 degrees and impacting Ecuador (the remnants of Kelvin Wave #5). The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/13) A broad pocket of +5 cms anomalies is tracking east between 170E-100W. Very weak positive anomalies were in a pocket along Ecuador reaching south to Northern Peru and up into Central America, the result of Kelvin Wave #5 impacting that region now.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (1/17) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate modest warm anomalies were building in coverage some just off the coast of Chile up into Peru, Ecuador and Central America then streaming west north and south of the equator over the Galapagos and a little stronger than day past. But cool anomalies were directly along the coast of Peru pushing up to Ecuador and then west along the equator over the Galapagos out to 1150W. Weak cool anomalies were also holding in a pocket south of the equator off Peru filling the area from 10S south down beyond 20S reaching west to 115W. Weak warm anomalies were on and north of the equator building while tracking west to the dateline.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/17): Today weak warming was filling the area from Chile and Peru west out to 100W and fading in coverage. Weak cooling extended on the equator from Ecuador out to 118W. This was a new development, likely attributable to east anomalies and the Inactive Phase of the MJO moving over that area. The short term trend is towards weak warming in the Southeast Pacific but cooling directly on the equator.
Hi-res Overview: (1/17) A building pocket of cool anomalies is holding south of the equator starting at 5S off Peru reaching out to 120W and building back north compared to weeks past. Cool anomalies were on the equator from Ecuador out to 117W. Otherwise gentle warming was along Chile up to Peru lifting north up to Ecuador then pushing west just north of the equator, out to the dateline. Warmer than normal water was north of the equator reaching north to 20N. Water temps appear to be stable mildly favoring El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/18) Today's temps continued falling at -0.437 but previously much lower down at -0.900 on 12/12. Temps peaked prior at +1.55 degrees on 12/2 after a long runup from negative anomalies in October. It now appears we are in a falling trend.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(1/18) Temps were steady today at +0.374. Temps peaked on 11/14 at +0.509 degs, fell some to -0.018 on 11/28, and are now trying to rebuild. The trend has been steadily generally upwards since Sept when they bottomed out at -0.6 degs (9/14).

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (1/18) Actual's indicate a cooling trend set up late summer with temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept then the trend started rising to +0.25 degs in early Oct holding to Dec 1 and then rising to +0.7 degs Jan 1. The forecast has temps holding at +0.7 degrees till Feb 1 then slowly falling from there to 0.0 in mid-May then diving negative appearing to be moving to La Nina down at -0.70 in early Oct and stabilizing there. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for the Winter and Spring, then possibly turning towards La Nina in the Summer.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.25 degs, and are to hold in the +0.25 deg range into May 2020, then fading slightly to +0.15 in June 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (1/18): The daily index was negative today at -8.62 and has been negative the last 7 days. The 30 day average was negative and falling at -5.57. The 90 day average was falling slightly at -6.28, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): Dec +0.45, Nov +1.03, Oct +0.27 Sept +1.11, August +0.60, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (1/19):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yugRLkLqdsY&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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