Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.1 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 0.9 ft @ 16.2 secs from 280 degrees. Water temp 77.4 (Barbers Pt), 77.4 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.7 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp NA
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.1 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 3.0 ft @ 15.5 secs from 316 degrees. Water temp 77.0 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 4.0 ft @ 13.7 secs from 302 degrees. Wind west at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 55.4 degs, 55.8 (Harvest 071), 57.4 (Topanga 103), 56.8 (Long Beach 215), 55.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 56.3 (Del Mar 153), 57.9 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.0 ft @ 14.6 secs from 291 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.9 ft @ 13.9 secs from 268 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.8 ft @ 13.6 secs from 257 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.7 secs from 256 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.9 secs from 261 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.3 ft @ 14.7 secs from 270 degrees. Water temperature was 55.0 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 5.5 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 4.3 ft @ 13.4 secs from 284 degrees. Wind northeast 2-4 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NNW 11-12 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NNE 2 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 52.7 (San Francisco 46026), 51.8 (SF Bar 142), 54.0 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 53.8 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 53.1 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Wednesday (1/22) in North and Central CA waves were 2 ft overhead on the sets and lined up with great form and glassy with light offshore winds. Protected breaks had sets at chest high and real lined up if not closed out and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high on the sets and lined up with good form and clean but with some intermixed slightly warble. In Ventura County surf was head high on the sets and lined up with great form and light offshore winds making pristine conditions. Central Orange County had sets at chest high and lined up if not closed out and clean but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were near flat and breaking just off the beach and ill formed and clean. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and lined up and clean and mostly closed out. Oahu's North Shore was still getting swell with waves 2-3 ft overhead and lined up but heavily warbled and almost chopped and not very good. The South Shore was near flat with thigh high sets and warbled though surface conditions were clean. The East Shore was getting northeast windswell at waist high and clean with light offshore (southwest) winds.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Wednesday (1/22) California was getting swell from secondary fetch that persisted on the dateline moving into the Western Gulf Thurs-Fri (1/17) with seas 25-26 ft, then faded out. Hawaii was getting swell from a small system that tracked east from the Kuril Islands Sat-Sun (1/19) with up to 29 ft seas continuing east Mon-Tues (1/21) into the Northwestern Gulf with 22-25 ft seas aimed east. A local low is forecast developing just 600 nmiles north of Hawaii Wed-Thurs (1/23) producing up to 26 ft seas aimed south. After that things quiet down some but with the exception of another local low forming north of Hawaii on Tues-Wed (1/29) with 26 ft seas aimed south.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Wednesday (1/22) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan at 130 kts then splitting on the dateline with the northern branch tracking northeast into Central Canada and the southern branch forming a trough just north of Hawaii supporting some degree of low pressure development then getting absorbed in the rest of the northern branch of the jet and residual energy tracking east into Baja but very weak. Over the next 72 hours the trough north of Hawaii is hold enough to offer some ongoing support for low pressure development into early Fri (1/24). Perhaps another trough is to develop on the dateline Fri (1/24). Beyond 72 hours that trough is to deepen just north of Hawaii Sun (1/26) being fed by 150 kts winds then easing east while pinching off some into Tues (1/28) supporting gale formation. And a backdoor trough is forecast building over San Francisco late Sat (1/25) falling south over Southern CA into Tues (1/28) offering weather there. On Wed (1/29) winds in the jet are to build to 190 kts streaming off Japan with the jet becoming more energized reaching to the dateline and starting to dig out a new trough again north of Hawaii. And the split point, which has be locked north of Hawaii is to start easing east reaching 135W or 600 nmiles off San Francisco. Perhaps a pattern change is to set up.

Surface Analysis
On Wednesday (1/22) swell originating from secondary gale energy that developed on the dateline from the Japan-Dateline Storm was fading in California (see Secondary Dateline-West Gulf Gale below). Swell from a gale previously that tracked east over the dateline was hitting Hawaii (see North Dateline Gale below)

On Wed AM (1/22) a low pressure system is to be developing just 600 nmiles north of Kauai generating north winds at 30 kts with seas building. In the evening the low is to build to gale status producing north winds at 45 kts and seas building to 26 ft at 31.25N 157.75W aimed south at the Islands. The gale is to be fading Thurs AM (1/23) producing north winds at 35+ kts and seas fading from 23 ft at 33N 161W aimed south. Residual fetch fading in the evening from 30 kts with seas fading from 20 ft at 30.5N 162.5W aimed southeast at the Islands.

Oahu: For planning purposes expect swell arrival on Thurs (1/23) at sunrise at 7.7 ft @ 13 secs (10 ft) and raw and fading through the day. Swell holding on Fri (1/24) at 7.1 ft @ 12-13 secs (8.5 ft). Dribbles fading Sat (1/25) from 5.2 ft @ 11 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 330 moving to 340 degrees

Secondary Dateline-West Gulf Gale
Some degree of secondary energy started developing on the dateline from remnants of the Japan-Dateline Gale (above) on Thurs AM (1/16) producing west winds 40-45 kts and seas building. In the evening west winds were 35-45 kts over the dateline and far West Gulf with seas 28 ft over a small area at 38.25N 179.5E aimed east but surrounded by a broader area of 26 ft seas. Fetch was fading Fri AM (1/17) from 35 kts while moving east with seas 25-26 ft at 38.25N 172W aimed east. Fetch held in the evening at 30-35 kts from the west with seas 23 ft at 42N 173W aimed east. Fetch was gone after that.

North California: Swell fading Wed (1/22) from 3.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.0 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (1/23) fading from 2.2 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 288 degrees

North Dateline Gale
And another small gale started developing off the South Kuril Islands Fri PM (1/17) with 35-40 kts northwest winds and seas 26 ft at 41.75N 157.25E aimed east. On Sat AM (1/18) northwest winds were 40-45 kts with seas 26 ft at 41.75N 162.5E aimed east. In the evening the gale tracked east with west winds holding at 40 kts with seas 29 ft at 42.25N 166E aimed east. On Sun AM (1/19) west winds were 35 kts approaching the dateline with seas 27 ft at 42N 173.5E aimed east. In the evening west winds held at 35 kts over the dateline with seas 27 ft at 42N 179.5E aimed east. Fetch held while moving east Mon AM (1/20) at 35 kts just east of the dateline with seas fading from 25 ft at 41N 175.25W aimed east. In the evening fetch moved into the Western Gulf at 30-35 kts from the northwest with seas 23 ft at 41.5N 169.75W aimed east. Fetch was fading while lifting northeast Tues AM (1/21) over the Northwestern Gulf at 30-35 kts from the northwest with seas 23 ft at 45N 169W aimed southeast. Fetch fading while drifting east in the evening and seas 20 ft up at 45N 162W aimed southeast. Fetch gone after that.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Wed (1/22) building to 4.5 ft @ 14-15 secs at sunset (6.5 ft). This swell to become buried in more locally generated swell beyond. Swell Direction: 318 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (1/24) building to 2.8 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (4.0 ft). Swell fading Sat (1/25) and buried in locally generated windswell. Swell Direction: 295 degrees

North Dateline Gale
A small gale starting developing off the Kuril Islands lifting northeast on Tues PM (1/21) with 40 kt west and southwest winds and seas 18 ft over a small area at 47N 170E aimed east. On Wed AM (1/22) fetch lifted northeast approaching the North Dateline region with west winds 35-40 kts and seas 23 ft at 49N 177.25E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to ease east while impacting the Central Aleutians at 35 kts with seas 22 ft at 51N 175W aimed east. No meaningful swell to result.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Thurs AM (1/22) north winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 5 kts for Central CA early but 15 kts well off the coast. In the afternoon north winds to be 5 kts for North CA early and northeast 5 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Fri AM (1/23) high pressure and a pressure gradient are to develop over Cape Mendocino producing north winds at 20-25 kts and north to northwest winds 5-10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA early. in the afternoon the gradient is to build with north winds 30+ kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts south of there and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA.
Sat AM (1/24) north to northwest winds are forecast at 30 kts for all of North CA but a bit off the coast and northwest 15-20 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon the gradient is to move off the coast with north winds 30 kts for Cape Mendocino and northeast 5 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. Light rain possible for Southern CA in the afternoon and evening. Light snow possible for the Sierra building in the evening.
Sun AM (1/25) northeast winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA but north winds 25 kts well off the coast and northeast winds 5 kts down to Monterey Bay and calm south of there. In the afternoon northeast winds to be 5 kts for North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. Rain for Central and Southern CA all day. Light snow for the Sierra and building over the Southern Sierra late.
Mon AM (1/26) north winds to be 10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. Rain for Southern CA. Snow fading for the Southern Sierra.
Tues AM (1/27) northwest winds to be 5 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5 kts for North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA.
Wed AM (1/28) northeast winds to be 10 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and northwest 15 kts south of Monterey Bay.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 0.5, 0, 2.0, and 3.0 inches.

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 10,000 ft early on 1/22 rising to 10,500 ft later and holding through 1/23 then falling to 3,000-4,000 ft 1/25-1/26. Temps building to 8,500 ft on 1/27 and then to 12,000 ft 1/29 and holding beyond. A continuation of a generally warm and dry pattern is expected and certainly not consistent with a 'normal' Winter.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell is in the water and no swell producing fetch is occurring. .

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii on Tues AM (1/28) peaking in the evening with north winds 45 kts and seas 27 ft at 40N 158W aimed south. Something to monitor.

Modoki La Nina in Control
MJO Pattern Now 'Unstuck'
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 5 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific, with a 6th one underway now. The atmosphere is in a weak La Nina mode focused on the dateline, but not expected to build or move much beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/21) 5 day average winds were moderate from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak west over the East equatorial Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and modest west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/22) Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA and modest west anomalies isolated over the Maritime Continent. The forecast indicates a continuation of the same through 2/1 when west anomalies are to fade over the Maritime Continent while east anomalies hold at strong status over the dateline through the end of the model run on 2/7. It looks like a possible repeat of December is setting up for late January, with the Active Phase over the Maritime Continent feeding strong energy into the jetstream allowing it to cross the West Pacific. This might be a good pattern longer term.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (1/21) Currently a strong Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was over the West KWGA. The statistic model depicts a strong Inactive Phase (dry air) filling the KWGA on day 5 of the model continuing on day 10 and then east of the KWGA on day 15 of the model run as a strong Active Phase of the MJO builds over the Maritime Continent on day 10 then starts moving to the KWGA on day 15. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with the Active Phase far weaker on day 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (1/22) - The models depicts the Active Phase was moderate over the Central Indian Ocean. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the East Maritime Continent somewhere between very weak and moderate strength. The dynamic model depicts it moving to the East Maritime Continent and very week 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (1/22) This model depicts a strong Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) over the East Pacific and forecast moving slowly east into the Atlantic on 2/1. A weak Active Phase (wet air) is to be developing over the KWGA 1/27 then tracking east filling the KWGA through 2/16 then east of the KWGA. Another Inactive Phase set up moving over the KWGA 2/21 through the end of the model run on 3/3.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/21) Today the Inactive Phase was filling the KWGA with strong east anomalies in control. The Inactive Phase is to track east and filling the KWGA through 2/3 with strong east anomalies in control then fading to modest status 2/7 holding through the end of the model run on 2/18. West anomalies are to be building over the Maritime Continent reaching strong status 1/22-2/11 and starting to move into the far West KWGA 2/5 but never making it significantly east of the entrance. Active Phase contours are to develop over the Maritime Continent 1/23 pushing to the entrance of the West Pacific but never entering it and holding there through the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/22) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today modest to strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast has east anomalies effectively filling the KWGA for the foreseeable future. The Inactive Phase is already over the West KWGA today tracking east through 2/7 with east anomalies filling the KWGA building to strong status through 2/5. A weak Active Phase is to follow 1/30 through 2/25 but with weak east anomalies mostly filling the KWGA. A weak Inactive MJO pattern is to follow 2/17 through the end of the model run on 4/21 with weak east anomalies easing east and then becoming centered on the dateline and weak west anomalies developing 3/19 in the West KWGA and building beyond. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour and is to hold through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias returned over the dateline 11/16 with 1 contour line with a second 12/7 and a third developing 1/18 and forecast holding to 3/30 then fading. This suggests a stronger and later developing La Nina pattern than is normal developing. This is not as hoped for but also not in line with any other model. Regardless, the CFS modes seems to always have an early lead on newly developing trends (if a little bit overhyped).

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/22) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 162E. The 29 degree isotherm was reaching east to 167E and unchanged. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 179E. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador (previously 140W) and a little bit thicker. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West and East Pacific with a pocket of strongly cooler anomalies present in between down 125 meter centered at 139W at -5 degs extending from 100-160W filling the Central Pacific thermocline. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/18 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from the 160W east to 90W at up to -5.0 degs below normal centered at 135W. The density and volume of that cold water at depth was fading. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building while pushing east to 160W. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/18) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from the Ecuador west to 175W with -10 cms between the 110W to 165W and -15 cms fading in one pocket at 155W. It appears the cool pool is fading and westward displaced. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/18) the cool pool is fading in coverage fast compared to 2 weeks ago but still filling the area from just east of the dateline to just off Ecuador with a core at -2.0- to -2.5 degs below normal from 120W to 142W. A La Nina pattern is in play with 6 pulses so far (the first showed in Feb). Warm water is limited west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer and building in coverage.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/21) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was filling the equatorial Pacific from 125W to 165E and strongest from 145W to 180W but not present in the far East or West Pacific. We are in La Nina, but not strongly and it looks very much like a Modoki version (westward displaced).
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/21): A warming trend was in control of the East Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 115W and mixed warm and cool anomalies west of there to 160W and balanced more towards cold.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/22) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were falling some at -0.368 after holding for a week near -0.289 (-0.275 1/3). They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/22) Today's temps were falling at -1.387 after peaking at -1.106 91/18) and had been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.6 week of 1/15 and rising slightly from previous weeks. Previously temps were -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27), -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.55 Sec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.91 (OND), -0.82 (SON), -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2.0 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec and -0.75 in Jan. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasts.
Forecast (1/22/25) - Actual temps are now posted for Jan (and did the same as the month of Dec) where actuals annihilated the CFS forecast (warmer than projected). The forecast was -1.0 degs and actuals were -0.7 degs. Looking forward the forecast is for temps falling to -0.90 in mid-Feb before rebounding to -0.50 in April 2025 and at -0.25 in Aug and beyond. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same with a drop to -0.9 degs mid-Feb then rebounding as described above. In all it looks like we're moving into a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The January 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.612 (down from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 8th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps rise from here forward to above -0.381 degs in March (MAM). The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here forward and near 0.0 on MJJ and the Statistic rising to -0.240 at the saem time. In other words, we are at the peak of La Nina now. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/22/25) the Daily Index was positive at +10.60 and positive the last 7 days, negative the previous 18 days, but otherwise mostly positive before that.
The 30 day average was rising at -0.39 and has been falling the entire last 30 day, no longer in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was steady at +5.65 and retreating slightly from La Nina territory.
We are in ENSO neutral status moving towards La Nina.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. In Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.