Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 8.4 secs from 194 degrees. Water temp 77.2 (Barbers Pt), 76.8 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.7 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp NA
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 8.7 secs from 338 degrees. Water temp 76.6 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 7.6 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 5.7 ft @ 10.5 secs from 308 degrees. Wind northwest at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 56.5 degs, 55.4 (Harvest 071), 56.5 (Topanga 103), 56.8 (Long Beach 215), 57.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 56.3 (Del Mar 153), 57.2 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.5 ft @ 10.6 secs from 321 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.9 ft @ 12.7 secs from 270 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 12.6 secs from 264 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 0.9 ft @ 13.3 secs from 247 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.9 ft @ 13.2 secs from 251 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.4 secs from 265 degrees. Water temperature 57.6 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 9.9 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 8.8 ft @ 10.5 secs from 323 degrees. Wind northeast 8-12 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NE 19-22 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and N 2 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 53.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.4 (San Francisco 46026), 52.7 (SF Bar 142), 53.1 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 53.2 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 53.1 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (1/26) in North and Central CA waves were chest high on the sets and lined up with decent form and clean with steady offshore winds early. Protected breaks had sets at chest high and lined up if not closed out and clean with brisk offshore winds. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh high on the sets and lined up and soft and clean. In Ventura County surf was to maybe thigh high and lined up clean but weak. Central Orange County had sets at thigh to waist high and lined up but pretty warbled and soft from south wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were near flat and breaking just off the beach and warbled from south wind. North San Diego had sets at knee high and weakly lined up and soft and mushed and somewhat clean and very weak. Oahu's North Shore was small with waves maybe waist high and lined up and clean but soft. The South Shore was near flat with occasional knee to thigh high sets and clean early. The East Shore was getting northeast windswell at thigh high mushed and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (1/26) California was getting small locally generated northwest windswell. Hawaii was getting generic background northwest easterly windswell. Beyond things to get even quieter but with the exception of another local low forming north of Hawaii on Wed (1/29) with 29 ft seas aimed south and 19 ft seas possibly aimed east towards the mainland. And another local low is forecast lifting north of the Islands on Fri-Sat (2/1) producing 24 ft seas aimed south.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (1/26) the jetstream was weakly consolidated pushing east off Japan ridging some before reaching the dateline then falling into a trough northwest of Hawaii being fed by a thin pocket of winds at 150 kts offering some support for gael formation. East of there the jet split north of Hawaii with the northern branch running north up into Alaska and the southern branch pushing east and over Baja. A weak backdoor trough was extending just off the Central CA coast perhaps making some weather for Southern CA. Over the next 72 hours the Hawaiian trough is to hold while getting pinched off into Mon (1/27) before dissipating on Tues (1/28). But back to the west the jet is to become energized on Tues (1/28) with winds 200 kts pushing off Japan reaching to the dateline starting to fall into a developing trough there beyond. Beyond 72 hours starting on Sat (2/1) the jet is to be running flat east on the 33N latitude line with a single pocket of winds 150-160 kts over the dateline weakly split just east of there with the northern branch pushing north over the Central Aleutians but most energy continuing east and into Oregon on Fri (1/31) suggesting the big ridge previously in the east is to be gone. But no clear swell producing troughs are forecast. On Sun (2/2) a trough is forecast forming on the dateline being fed by 130 kts winds falling south into it holding into Sun (2/2) perhaps offering some hope for gale formation. But overall the jetstream pattern is to be weak.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (1/26) no swell of interest was in the water or hitting our forecast area.

A small gale is forecast developing 900 nmiles north-northeast of Hawaii on Tues PM (1/28) with 45 kt north winds over a tiny area and seas building. On Wed AM (1/29) north winds to build in coverage at 45 kts with 29 ft seas at 40.5N 152W aimed south. In the evening the gale is to hold position with 35-40 kt north winds and seas 23 ft at 40N 154W aimed south. Fetch eases east Thurs AM (1/30) with northwest winds 35 kts and seas 21 ft at 40N 150W aimed south and east. The gale is to track southeast in the evening with northwest winds 35 kts over a tiny area and seas 20 ft over a tiny area at 39.5N 145W aimed southeast and California. The gale to dissipate after that. Something to monitor.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Mon AM (1/26) the pressure gradient is to be gone with generic high pressure remaining just off the Pacific Northwest producing north winds 10 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and Central CA. Rain for Southern CA fading in the afternoon. Snow fading for the Southern Sierra in the afternoon.
Tues AM (1/27) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and northwest 15 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. No precip forecast.
Wed AM (1/28) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North and Central CA early, In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay.
Thurs AM (1/29) high pressure is to be gone off the US West Coast. Northwest winds to be 5 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon a front is to be off Cape Mendocino with south winds 5-10 kts there and northwest 10 kts for the rest of North CA and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay.
Fri AM (1/30) the front holds no over Cape Mendocino with south winds 10-15 kts for North CA and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the front is to be inland with southwest winds 10 kts for North CA and northwest winds 5-10 kts for Central CA. Rain building while falling south to Monterey Bay in the evening. . Snow developing for Tahoe in the afternoon and falling south over the Sierra overnight.
Sat AM (2/1) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for all of North and Central CA. No change in the afternoon. Light rain for North CA early. Rain redeveloping for the SF Bay area overnight. Snow fading from the Sierra early then rebuilding in the evening. .
Sun (2/2) low pressure is to be building off the coast north and south with north winds 5-10 kts for North CA early and south 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon low pressure is to be well of Central CA with northeast winds 10 kts for North CA and southwest 5 kts for Central CA. Rain focused from Monterey Bay to Pt Arena through the day. Snow for the Sierra all day.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 100, 104, 102, and 63 inches. The deluge starts on Fri (1/31) and builds steadily beyond.

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 3,000-5,000 ft 1/26-1/27 then building to 6,500 ft late on 1/27 up to 10,500 ft 1/29-1/30 then falling to 5,000 ft 1/31 dropping to 3,000 ft 2/1 and beyond. The models are now strongly indicating a major pattern change is to be developing.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell is in the water and no swell producing fetch is occurring. .

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours perhaps some form of small low pressure system is to be developing Thurs PM (1/30) just north of Kauai with winds building. On Fri AM (1/31) the gale is to track east fast with north winds 35 kts 300 nmiles north of the Big Island with seas building. In the evening the late is to lift northeast with north winds 45 kts and seas 23 ft at 30N 152W aimed south at the Islands. On Sat AM (2/1) the gale is to organize with 40 kt north winds and seas 23 ft at 33N 150W aimed south. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts with seas 21 ft at 34N 150W aimed south. Then gale to fade from there. Something to monitor.

A gale is try and develop off Japan Thurs-Fri (1/31) producing seas 24 ft at 35N 163E aimed east and dissipated before reaching the dateline on Sat (2/1).

Modoki La Nina in Control
MJO Pattern Now 'Unstuck'
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak La Nina mode focused on the dateline, but not expected to build or move much beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/25) 5 day average winds were moderate to strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak west over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/26) Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA and strong west anomalies over the Maritime Continent. The forecast indicates a continuation of the same through 2/5 when east anomalies suddenly start to evaporate over the dateline while strong west anomalies hold over the Maritime Continent. and by 2/9 west anomalies start building over the dateline holding through the end of the model run on 2/11. It looks like a possible repeat of December is setting up for early Feb, with the Active Phase over the Maritime Continent feeding strong energy into the jetstream allowing it to cross the West Pacific and eroding the pervasive east anomaly pattern that has been set up over the dateline since November. This is looking like a good pattern longer term.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (1/25) Currently a strong Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was over the West KWGA. The statistic model depicts a moderate Inactive Phase (dry air) filling the KWGA on day 5 of the model while moving east and gone on day 10 as a strong Active Phase of the MJO builds over the Maritime Continent on day 5 then starts moving over the KWGA on day 10 filling it on day 15. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with the Active Phase far weaker on day 10 then gone on day 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (1/26) - The models depict the Active Phase was moderate to strong over the East Indian Ocean. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the West Pacific at weak status. The dynamic model depicts it moving to the far West Pacific and weak 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (1/26) This model depicts a strong Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) over the East Pacific and a strong Active Phase (wet air) over the Maritime Continent. The forecast has the Inactive Phase moving slowly east into the Atlantic on 1/31 while the strong Active Phase tracks east filling the KWGA through 2/15 then east of the KWGA and south of California 2/10-2/25. Another Inactive Phase is to set up moving over the KWGA 2/20 through the end of the model run on 3/7.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/25) Today the Inactive Phase was filling the KWGA with strong east anomalies in control. The Inactive Phase is to track east and filling the KWGA through 1/30 with strong east anomalies in control then Inactive Contours gone after that with moderate to strong east anomalies holding to 2/8 then moderate east anomalies holding over the dateline through the end of the model run on 2/22. West anomalies are strong over the Maritime Continent forecast holding to 2/8 when Active contours dissipate. But west anomalies are to ease east to the entrance of the West Pacific 2/1 fading to moderate status 2/8 and holding there through the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/24) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA with the Inactive Phase over the West KWGA today tracking east through 2/9 with east anomalies holding at strong status through that time frame. A weak Active Phase is to follow 2/1 through the end of the model run on 4/25. But east anomalies are to continue holding over the dateline into 3/31 slowly fading in strength. West anomalies are forecast holding at the entrance to the West Pacific 3/3 through 3/31 then finally spilling east and filling the KWGA 4/6 through the end of the model run. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour and is to hold through the end of the model run through starting to ease into the West Pacific 4/15. The high pressure bias returned over the dateline 11/16 with 1 contour line with a second 12/7 and a third developed 1/18 and a 4th forecast 2/21-3/7. The third is to fade 4/12 and the second 4/25. This suggests a stronger and later developing La Nina pattern than is normal developing. This is not as hoped for but also not in line with any other model. Regardless, the CFS modes seems to always have an early lead on newly developing trends (if a little bit overhyped).

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/26) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 162E. The 29 degree isotherm was reaching east to 167E and unchanged. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 178E. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador (previously 140W) and a little bit thicker. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West and East Pacific with a pocket of strongly cooler anomalies present in between down 125 meters centered at 140W at -5 degs extending from 100-160W filling the Central Pacific thermocline. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/18 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from the 160W east to 90W at up to -5.0 degs below normal centered at 135W. The density and volume of that cold water at depth was fading. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building now pushing east to 160W. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/18) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from the Ecuador west to 175W with -10 cms between the 110W to 160W and -15 cms fading in one pocket at 155W. It appears the cool pool is fading and westward displaced. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/18) the cool pool is fading in coverage fast compared to 2 weeks ago but still filling the area from just east of the dateline to just off Ecuador with a core at -1.5--2.0 degs below normal from 120W to 142W. A La Nina pattern is in play with 6 pulses so far (the first showed in Feb). Warm water is limited west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer and building in coverage.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/25) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was filling the equatorial Pacific from 125W to 160E and strongest from 125W to 180W but not present in the far East or West Pacific. We are in La Nina, but not strongly and it looks very much like a Modoki version (westward displaced).
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/25): A marked cooling trend was developing over the Equatorial Pacific from the Galapgos to 120W. No surprise as an Inactive MJO moves east over the East Equatorial Pacific today.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/26) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were falling some at -0.707 after holding for a week near -0.289 (-0.275 1/3-1/10). They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/26) Today's temps were steady at -1.461 after peaking at -1.106 91/18) and had been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.6 week of 1/15 and rising slightly from previous weeks. Previously temps were -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27), -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.55 Sec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.91 (OND), -0.82 (SON), -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2.0 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec and -0.75 in Jan. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasts.
Forecast (1/26/25) - Actual temps are now posted for Jan (and did the same as the month of Dec) where actuals were much warmer than projected. The forecast was -1.0 degs and actuals were -0.7 degs. Looking forward the forecast is for temps falling to -0.90 in mid-Feb before rebounding to -0.50 in April 2025 and at -0.20 in July and beyond. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same with a drop to -0.9 degs mid-Feb then rebounding as described above. In all it looks like we're moving into a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The January 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.612 (down from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 8th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps rise from here forward to above -0.381 degs in March (MAM). The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here forward and near 0.0 on MJJ and the Statistic rising to -0.240 at the saem time. In other words, we are at the peak of La Nina now. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/25/25) the Daily Index was positive at +6.65 and positive the last 10 days, negative the previous 18 days, but otherwise mostly positive before that.
The 30 day average was falling at -0.74 and has been falling the entire last 30 days, no longer in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was steady at +5.38 and retreating slightly from La Nina territory.
We are in ENSO neutral status moving towards La Nina.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. In Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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