Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 6.4 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 5.4 ft @ 6.0 secs from 168 degrees. Water temp 77.0 (Barbers Pt), 77.0 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.5 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp NA
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 3.0 ft @ 11.8 secs from 193 degrees. Water temp 76.5 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 13.9 secs from 292 degrees. Wind north at 10-12 kts. Water temperature 55.8 degs, 55.6 (Harvest 071), 57.2 (Topanga 103), 57.2 (Long Beach 215), 57.7 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 57.2 (Del Mar 153), 57.6 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.8 ft @ 12.7 secs from 288 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 0.9 ft @ 12.7 secs from 267 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.8 ft @ 14.7 secs from 236 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 0.9 ft @ 15.2 secs from 183 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.8 ft @ 15.4 secs from 198 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.4 ft @ 15.1 secs from 191 degrees. Water temperature 57.6 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 12.7 secs from 298 degrees. Wind east 8-10 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and SSW 2-3 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NE 2-4 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 53.4 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 52.7 (San Francisco 46026), 52.5 (SF Bar 142), 53.2 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 52.7 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 52.7 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (1/30) in North and Central CA waves were waist to maybe up to chest high on the biggest peaks and lined up with decent form and clean but soft. Protected breaks were flat and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was still lake-like with nothing breaking and calm winds and glassy conditions. In Ventura County surf was flat and clean. Central Orange County had sets at waist high or so coming from the south and lined up breaking just off the beach and clean with no wind early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were flat and clean though some degree of steady west warble was coming through. North San Diego had sets at knee high breaking just off the beach and clean. Oahu's North Shore had sets at shoulder to near head high and line dup and clean with decent form early. The South Shore was flat and chopped with whitecaps from the south in control. The East Shore was getting northeast windswell at waist to chest high and clean from brisk south-southwest wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (1/30) California was getting no swell of interest. Hawaii was getting fading small locally generated north windswell. Beyond another local low is forecast building while lifting north of the Islands on Fri-Sat (2/1) producing 23 ft seas aimed south and 21 ft seas aimed east. Otherwise virtually no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast in the North Pacific. But 2 micro southern hemi swell are pushing north towards Southern CA. Nothing else is charted after that.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (1/30) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan and making it just east of the dateline with winds to 190 kts then weakly splitting on the dateline with barely any energy tracking north up over the Central Aleutians with most energy tracking east rebuilding to 140 kts and poised to impact North CA. No real troughs of interest were indicated offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the first bit of jetstream energy is to pushing east-northeast up into Cape Mendocino CA on Fri (1/31) ridging up into Oregon on Sat (2/1) providing weather there and holding into Sun (2/2). Beyond 72 hours starting on Mon (2/3) the jet to the west is to start weakening with the jet fragmented but still running east on the 33N latitude line from Japan to the US West Coast and no longer split with winds 110-140 kts in pockets pushing onshore over North CA reaching down to the Golden Gate but with no troughs indicated. On Tues (2/4) winds are to start building off Japan to 200 kts reaching almost to the dateline and then weak over the middle and almost split then reorganizing from north of Hawaii eastward poised into impact Central CA with winds 110 kts building on Wed (2/5) to 130 kts while pushing over Central CA making weather there. This pattern to hold into Thurs (2/6). On Thurs (2/6) the jet is to build in the west at 160-170 kts almost reaching the dateline and then far weaker pushing east and over North and Central CA. Still no troughs are forecast offering no support for gale development. Just potential weather for California.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (1/30) swell from a small gale that developed north of Hawaii was hitting there (see Small Local Hawaiian Gale below). And another is forecast right behind that (see Another Local Hawaiian Gale below).

And a small gale is developing just off North Japan on Thurs AM (1/30) with seas 22 ft at 42.5N 155.5E aimed east. In the evening west winds continue at 30-35 kts off Japan with seas 22 ft at 38.5N 158E aimed east. The gael is to track east Fri AM (1/31) northwest winds to be 30-35 kts with seas 22 ft at 35N 159E aimed east. The gale is to track east while fading in the evening approaching the dateline with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 22 ft at 35N 168E aimed east. Fetch fading Sat AM (2/1) from 30 kts with seas fading from 22 ft at 39N 171E aimed east.

Oahu: Background swell possibly arriving on Tues (2/4) building to 3.4 ft @ 14 secs later (4.5 ft).Swell Direction: 310 degrees

Small Local Hawaiian Gale
A small gale developed 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii on Tues PM (1/28) with 45 kt north winds over a tiny area and seas building from 20 ft at 40N 152W aimed south. On Wed AM (1/29) north winds built in coverage at 40-45 kts with 28 ft seas at 38.75N 157W aimed south. In the evening the gale held position while falling apart with 35 kt north winds and seas 21 ft at 40N 156W aimed south and 35 kts west winds and 20 ft seas fading at 38N 151W aimed east. Fetch dissipated Thurs AM (1/30) with no seas remaining.

Oahu: Expect small swell arrival on Thurs (1/30) morning building to 3.0 ft @ 11 secs (3.0 ft). Swell getting buried in more locally generated swell beyond (see Another Local Hawaiian Gale above). Swell Direction: 355 degrees

Another Local Hawaiian Gale
Another small low pressure system is to be developing Thurs PM (1/30) just north of Kauai with north winds building to 35-40 kts and seas 20 ft at 28N 165W aimed southeast. On Fri AM (1/31) the gale is to track northeast with north winds 30-35 kts 500 nmiles north of the Islands with seas fading from 22 ft at 28N 153W aimed mostly east. In the evening the gale is to lift northeast with no fetch aimed south at the Islands or east at the US West Coast. On Sat PM (2/1) the gale is to rebuild 900 nmiles north-northeast of the Islands producing east winds at 40 kts with seas 26 ft at 36.5N 151.5W aimed west and southwest. East fetch fading Sun AM (2/2) from 35 kts ands seas 23 ft at 37N 150W aimed east. More of the same in the evening with 35 kts east winds and seas 24 ft at 37.5N 148W aimed east. Fetch fading after that.

Oahu: Rough data suggests swell arrive on Fri (1/31) building to 5.6 ft @ 11-12 secs late (6.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (2/1) from 5.3 ft @ 10-11 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (2/2) from 4.4 ft @ 11 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 320 moving to 175 degrees

More sideband swell possibly arriving in Oahu on Mon (2/3) building to 5.6 ft @ 12-13 secs later (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 15 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Fri AM (1/30) a front hits Cape Mendocino with south winds 25 kts there and 10-15 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the front is to be inland with southwest winds 10 kts for North CA and northwest winds 5-10 kts for Central CA. Rain building from North CA while falling south over Monterey Bay in the evening. . Snow developing for the higher elevations of the Sierra through the day and evening.
Sat AM (2/1) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for Cape Mendocino but southwest 15 kts south of there to the Monterey Bay and northwest 5-10 kts south of there for the rest of Central CA. In the afternoon northeast winds are forecast at 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and southwest 10 kts south of there. Rain for North CA down to Big Sur early continuing through the day and evening. Snow for the Sierra through the day becoming very focused on Tahoe in the evening.
Sun AM (2/2) northeast winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino early and southwest 10 kts down over Central CA. In the afternoon north winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and south 5-10 kts for Central CA. Rain focused from Bodega Bay down to Monterey Bay through the day. Snow focused on Tahoe through the day and evening.
Mon AM (2/3) north winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA and east 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northeast winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA and southwest winds 10-15 kts for Central CA. Light rain for the SF Bay area early rebuilding over all of North Ca down to Monterey Bay in the afternoon and evening. Snow for Tahoe early building over all of North CA mountains down to Tahoe later and heavy.
Tues AM (2/4) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA early and south winds 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are to be sweeping down the the North and Central CA coast at 15 kts. Rain for all of North CA down to Big Sur early and falling south to Pt Conception in the afternoon and Santa Barbara County in the evening. Heavy snow to the Sierra fading in the evening. .
Wed AM (2/5) northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA and northeast 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon north winds to be 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Thurs AM (2/6) north-northeast winds to be 5-10 kts for North and Central CA. In the afternoon south winds are to be building to 5-10 kts for North and Central CA with low pressure building off the coast. No precip forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 123, 146, 74, and 17 inches. A little on Fri (1/31) and more meaningful accumulation Sun-Tues (2/4).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level building to 10,000 ft late on 1/28 holding through 1/30 then falling to 7-8,000 ft 1/31 rising to 9-10,000 ft 2/1-2/2 then dropping to 8,500 ft 2/3 and 6,8000 ft 2/4-2/5 before finally falling to 3,500 ft 2/6. The models continue to suggest a major pattern change developing.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
A gale developed in the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). Another developed right behind it (see Another Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no additional swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Sat AM (1/25) a gale developed over the Southeast Pacific producing 40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 21 ft at 63S 141W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch built to 45 kts aimed northeast with seas 31 ft at 62.25S 133.5W aimed northeast. On Sun (1/26) southwest winds were 40 kts with seas 30 ft at 59.25S 125W aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch was fading while moving east of the Southern CA swell window.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (2/4) building to 1.1 ft @ 15-16 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building on Wed (2/5) to 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (2/6) from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs 91.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

Another Southeast Pacific Gale
Another gale developed over the Southeast Pacific on Tues PM (1/28) with 45 kts southwest winds and seas 31 ft at 65.75S 142.5W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (1/29) southwest winds were 45 kts aimed well north and seas 34 ft at 64.5S 131W aimed northeast. In the evening south-southwest winds were 40 kts with seas 35 ft at 61.25S 122.5W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (1/30) southwest winds were lifting north at 35 kts with seas 33 ft at 57.5S 120W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to track northeast with 30 kts winds and moving out of the Southern CA swell window with seas 27 ft at 52.5S 113.5W aimed northeast. The gale is to fade after that. Another possible southern hemi swell to result reaching up into Southern CA with luck.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (2/7) building to 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaks on Sat (2/8) at 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (2/9) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Dribbles Mon AM (2/10) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Modoki La Nina in Control
MJO Pattern Now 'Unstuck'
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak La Nina mode focused on the dateline, but not expected to build or move much beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/29) 5 day average winds were moderate to strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/30) Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA and moderate west anomalies were over the Maritime Continent reaching right to the entrance to the West Pacific. The forecast indicates east anomalies holding over the dateline at strong status to 2/12 but with west anomalies steadily moving east from the Maritime Continent into the far West Pacific 2/2 making it to 140E then stalling holding through 2/12 then building east to 155E at the end of the model run on 2/15. And east anomalies are to be fading over the dateline down to modest strength 2/13 through the end of the model run.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (1/29) Currently a moderate Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was over the dateline and the Active Phase (wet air) was moving from the Maritime Continent into the far West Pacific/KWGA. The statistic model depicts a moderate Active Phase (wet air) filling the KWGA on day 5 of the model while moving east through days 10 and 15 filling the KWGA. The dynamic model depicts the Active Phase moving much slower only 50% of the way over the KWGA on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (1/30) - The models depict the Active Phase was moderate over the West Maritime Continent. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the Central West Pacific at weak status. The dynamic model depicts the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (1/30) This model depicts a strong Active Phase (wet air) over the West Pacific almost filling the KWGA. The forecast has to tracking east filling the KWGA through 2/14 then east of the KWGA and south of California 2/19-3/6. Another Inactive Phase is to set up moving over the KWGA 2/24 through the end of the model run on 3/11.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/29) Today the Inactive Phase was barely filling the KWGA with strong east anomalies in control. Inactive Phase contours are to track east and gone on 2/5 but with strong east anomalies in control 2/12. West anomalies are strong over the Maritime Continent moving into the far West Pacific 2/3 reaching to 140E holding to 2/15 with Active contours moving into the KWGA 2/5 pushing east to 160E dissipating on 2/19. West anomalies are to retreat west on 2/19 moving back over the Maritime Continent. Weal east anomalies are to persist over the bulk of the KWGA beyond through the end of the model run on 2/26.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/30) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA with the Inactive Phase over the West KWGA today tracking east through 2/9 with east anomalies holding at strong status through that time frame. A weak Active Phase is to follow 2/2 through 4/3/ but with east anomalies continue holding over the dateline at strong status to 2/10 then weakening from moderate strength to weak strength on 3/11 then gone on 3/19. West anomalies are forecast moving from the entrance to the West Pacific to 145E on 2/7 then to 150E on 2/20 then holding. After that a weak Inactive Phase is to develop filling the KWGA 4/1 through the end of the model run on 4/29 but east anomalies dissipating over the dateline 3/20 and weak west anomalies setting up filling the KWGA beyond. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour and is to hold through the end of the model run though starting to ease into the West Pacific 4/15. The high pressure bias returned over the dateline 11/16 with 1 contour line with a second 12/7 and a third developed 1/18. The third is to fade 3/28 and the second 4/17. This suggests a stronger and later developing La Nina pattern than is normal developing. This is not as hoped for but also not in line with any other model. Regardless, the CFS modes seems to always have an early lead on newly developing trends (if a little bit overhyped).

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/30) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 162E. The 29 degree isotherm was reaching east to 166E and unchanged. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 177E. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador (previously 140W) and a little bit thinner at 140W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West and East Pacific with a pocket of strongly cooler anomalies present in between down 100 meters centered at 120W at -4 degs extending from 100-165W filling the Central Pacific thermocline. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/23 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from the 160W east to 90W at up to -5.0 degs below normal centered at 135W. The density and volume of that cold water at depth was fading. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building now pushing east to 160W. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/23) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from the Ecuador west to 175W with -10 cms between the 115W to 165W and -15 cms building in one pocket at 140W. It appears the cool pool is fading and westward displaced. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/23) the cool pool is fading in coverage fast compared to 4 weeks ago but still filling the area from just east of the dateline to just off Ecuador with a core at -1.5--2.0 degs below normal from 120W to 142W and steady the last 2 weeks. A La Nina pattern is in play with 6 pulses so far (the first showed in Feb). Warm water is limited west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer and building in coverage.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/29) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was filling the equatorial Pacific and strongest from 125W to 175W and now present in a thin stream running on the equator in the East Pacific. We are in La Nina, but not strongly and it looks very much like a Modoki version (westward displaced).
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/29): A marked cooling trend was present over the Equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 120W. No surprise as an Inactive MJO moves east over the East Equatorial Pacific today.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/30) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising some at -0.877 after falling to -0.962 (1/28) after holding for a week near -0.289 (-0.275 1/3-1/10). They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/30) Today's temps were rising at -1.317 after peaking at -1.106 (1/18) and had been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.9 week of 1/22 falling some from previous weeks. Previously temps were -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27), -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.55 Sec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.91 (OND), -0.82 (SON), -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec and -0.75 in Jan. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasts.
Forecast (1/30/25) - Actual temps are now posted for Jan (and did the same as the month of Dec) where actuals were much warmer than projected. The forecast was -1.0 degs and actuals were -0.7 degs. Looking forward the forecast is for temps falling to -0.90 in mid-Feb before rebounding to -0.50 in April 2025 and at -0.20 in July and +0.15 in Oct. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same with a drop to -0.9 degs mid-Feb then rebounding as described above. In all it looks like we're moving into a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The January 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.612 (down from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 8th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps rise from here forward to above -0.381 degs in March (MAM). The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here forward and near 0.0 on MJJ and the Statistic rising to -0.240 at the same time. In other words, we are at the peak of La Nina now. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/30/25) the Daily Index was positive at +17.29 and positive the last 15 days, negative the previous 18 days, but otherwise mostly positive before that.
The 30 day average was rising at +1.42 and has been falling the entire last 30 days, no longer in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was rising slightly at +6.11 and retreating slightly from La Nina territory.
We are in ENSO neutral status moving towards La Nina.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. In Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.