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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, February 2, 2020 12:38 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.8 - California & 2.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 2/3 thru Sun 2/9

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small Swell Hitting HI
3 Gales Forecast for Far West Pacific

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Sunday, February 2, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Barbers Point (Buoy 238) : Seas were 4.5 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 9.2 secs from 285 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 8.0 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 5.8 ft @ 12.1 secs from 356 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 11.3 secs from 261 degrees. Wind at the buoy was west at 8-12 kts. Water temperature 60.4 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.8 ft @ 12.5 secs from 290 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 15.4 secs from 229 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.6 ft @ 14.9 secs from 209 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.5 ft @ 14.5 secs from 246 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 14.6 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 10.6 ft @ 9.7 secs from 306 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 29-37 kts. Water temp 53.4 degs (013), 54.5 degs (012) and 55.2 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (2/2) in North and Central CA local windswell was producing waves at 2 ft overhead and totally whitecapped and unrideable. Protected breaks were 1-2 ft overhead and whitecapped sloppy mess. At Santa Cruz surf was head high or a little more and lined up and clean but soft and a little warbled. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to maybe chest high and a bit lined up but soft and crumbled with some warble in the water but real clean. In North Orange Co surf was shoulder to head high on the sets and crumbled coming from the north but with south textured pretty solid. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks had sets at shoulder high and lined up when they came and real clean and sometimes decently rideable. Hawaii's North Shore had waves at 1-2 ft overhead and clean and reasonably lined up coming from the north. The South Shore was thigh high and clean with light winds early. The East Shore was getting north swell with waves 2 ft overhead and chopped form moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (2/2) in California the last of a multi-week run of nice groundswell was gone, replaced with local wind and windswell. In Hawaii north swell from a relatively local gale that tracked east from a point just north of the Islands was hitting, but not remarkable. A broad gale developed just off the Kuril's Sat-Mon (2/3) producing 31 ft seas in it's east quadrant aimed north sending some sideband swell towards the US West Coast and 30 ft seas in it's west quadrant aimed southeast at Hawaii sending swell in that direction. Another compact gale to follow Tues-Thurs (2/6) producing up to 44 ft seas pushing just over the dateline offering potential longer term. in the far Northwest Pacific. And yet a third system is to develop off the Kuril Islands pushing east Thurs-Fri (2/8) producing up to 34 ft seas aimed east then fading on the dateline. And maybe another to follow behind that. So some long distance swell is in the forecast, but overall weaker than what has been happening recently. A split jetstream pattern is is be taking over in the Gulf for a few weeks driven by the Inactive Phase of the MJO isolating the storm track to the West Pacific.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (2/2) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Southern Japan on the 30N latitude line with winds 150-160 kts pushing over the dateline forming a broad trough centered just west of the dateline offering decent support for gale development there. East of there the jet split at 170W with the northern branch pushing northeast up into the Northern Gulf of Alaska and then into Northern Canada offering nothing with the southern branch weak falling over Hawaii then tracking east over Southern Baja. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough is to push east moving in to the far Western Gulf on Tues (2/4) before losing definition and hitting a big ridge set up over the Gulf of Alaska. But at that time winds are to be building solidly streaming off Japan at 180 kts pushing almost to the dateline and continuing into Thurs (2/6) starting to carve out a trough off the Kuril Islands starting to support gale development. Beyond 72 hours that flow is to continue into Sat (2/8) feeding the trough and supporting gale development while moving to the dateline. Another pulse of wind energy is forecast pushing off South Japan on Sun (2/9) carving out another trough just off the Kuril Islands and offering support for gale development with the split point in the jet retrograding to the dateline and the big ridge holding firm over the Gulf of Alaska offering no support there for gale development. The pattern is to start getting dug in with a trough over the West Pacific and a ridge and split jet flow in the East.


Surface Analysis
On Sunday (2/2) small swell was hitting Hawaii from a gale that previously tracked north of the Islands (see Hawaiian Local Gale below). Windswell and high pressure has taken over the picture east of there. No other swell was in the water.

Over the next 72 hours the focus is to be on a broad gale that developed off the Kuril Islands and Kamchatka on Sat AM (2/1) with up to 50 kt south winds in it's east quadrant producing 31 ft seas at 41N 176W aimed north at the East Aleutians possibly sending sideband energy east and 40 kt west winds approaching the dateline producing 26 ft seas at 41N 175E aimed east. In the evening 45-50 kt south winds continued in the east quadrant producing 31 ft seas at 42N 169W aimed north but with sideband swell potential and 35 kt west winds in it's west quadrant producing 30 ft seas at 46N 178E aimed somewhat at Hawaii. On Sun AM (2/2) more of the same was occurring with 30 ft seas in the east at 44N 163W aimed north and 33 ft ft seas at 50N 168E aimed south at Hawaii. In the evening 40 kt north winds to continue aimed south with 33 ft seas fading at 48N 172E aimed south perhaps targeting Hawaii. The gale is to track east and fade Mon AM (2/3) with 30-35 kt north winds and 28 ft seas fading at 45.5N 174E aimed south at Hawaii. In the evening the gale is to fade with 30 kt north winds and seas fading from 25 ft at 44N 178W aimed south at Hawaii. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Small swell to arrive on Wed AM (2/5) with swell building to 4.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.5 ft). Swell to be building some on Thurs (2/6) to 4.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (6.0 ft) early but with local north winds ands windswell taking over as the day continues. Swell Direction: 312 degrees

North CA: Small swell is possible starting Wed (2/5) building to 4.4 ft @ 15-16 secs later (6.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs AM (2/6) from 4.2 ft @ 14 secs (5.5 ft). Perhaps a secondary pulse to arrive on Fri AM (2/7) building to 4.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (6.0 ft). Dribbles fading on Sat (2/8) from 3.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 295-297 degrees

 

And a stronger gale is forecast developing off North Japan on Tues AM (2/4) producing a tiny area of 55 kt west winds and seas building from 30 ft at 44N 159E aimed east. In the evening 45+ kt west winds are to be tracking east fast with 38 ft seas at 44.5N 167E aimed east. On Wed AM (2/5) the storm is to be approaching the dateline with 50 kt west winds and 44 ft seas at 45N 173E aimed east over a small area. In the evening the gale is to pushing over the dateline with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 42 ft at 45N 177W aimed east. On Thurs AM (2/6) the gale is to be fading in the Northwestern Gulf with 35 kt west winds and seas 34 ft at 46.5N 167W aimed east. Something to monitor.

 

Hawaiian Local Gale
A local gale developed 900 nmiles northwest of Hawaii on Thurs AM (1/30) producing 30 kt northwest winds and seas building from 19 ft at 31N 164W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch tracked east at 30-35 kts from the north aimed at Hawaii with 20 ft seas at 36N 164W aimed south. On Fri AM (1/31) fetch was lifting northeast fast with 35 kt north fetch positioned off California with 24 ft seas at 38.5N 147.5W aimed east and a tiny area of residual 20 ft seas at 34N 161W aimed at Hawaii. The gale lifted northeast fast in the evening with a broad area of 30-35 kt west winds off Washington producing 21 ft seas at 40N 138W aimed east at California. Some raw swell is possible for the Islands to start off February and then tracking into California but lost there to local winds.

Hawaii: Expect swell fading on Sun (2/2) from 4.5 ft @ 11 secs (5.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (2/3) fading from 3.8 ft @ 10 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 360 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Sunday (2/2) high pressure was in control at 1040 mbs in the Gulf driving north winds 30 kts for all of North and Central CA pushing 35 kts for Morro Bay to Pt Conception late afternoon. Light snow pushing south to Tahoe late afternoon then fading. Monday (2/3) north winds are forecast at 25 kts for all of North and Central CA all day though weakening in pockets later nearshore. Brisk northwest winds for Southern CA at 20 kts mainly early. Maybe some showers for Cape Mendocino early. Tuesday (2/4) north winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for all of North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Wednesday (2/5) light north-northeast winds are forecast all day for all of North and Central CA except at 20 kts for Pt Arena northward. Thursday (2/6) light north winds are forecast at 10 kts for all of North and Central CA but 15-20 kts for Pt Arena northward. Fri (2/7) more of the same is forecast but with north winds building to 25 kt for Pt Arena later and 15 kts down to Monterey Bay. Sat (2/8) high pressure and north winds return at 25 kts for all of North and Central CA early pushing 35 kts for SF up to Pt Arena later. Sun (2/9) north winds are forecast at 30-35 kts for all of North and Central CA all day if not building some late afternoon. Perhps a backdoor front is to produce some snow for the Sierra starting mid-day. It sure looks like a La Nina/Strong Inactive MJO spring time pattern setting up for now. Expect water temps to plummet due to upwelling.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 6, 3, 4 and 8 inches respectively.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch is occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours yet another small storm is forecast develop just off the Kuril Islands on Thurs AM (2/6) with 50 kt west winds over a small area and 41 ft seas at 45.5N 163E aimed east. In the evening this system is to stall with 45 kt northwest winds holding and 34 ft seas at 46N 166E aimed east. More of the same is forecast on Fri AM (2/7) with the gale holding position and 34 ft seas aimed east at 46N 165E. More of the same in the evening with 34 ft seas at 46N 167E aimed east. The gale is to start fading Sat AM (2/8) with fetch fading from 35 kts and lifting northeast with seas fading from 31 ft at 47N 172E aimed east. Something to monitor.

And yet another solid gale is forecast developing just west of the dateline Sat PM (2/8) with 50 kt south winds lifting northeast continuing into Sunday evening.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Active MJO Fading Out...Maybe

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water hold in a pool off Peru and has not changed as of late Jan 2020.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/1) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the dateline and into the KWGA but modestly west over the Southern KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific then weak westerly over the dateline and KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (2/2) modest west anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for modest west anomalies holding in the KWGA through 2/5 then fading with weak east anomalies taking over on 2/6 through the end of the model run on 2/9.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (2/1) A weak Active MJO signal was filling the KWGA. The statistic model indicates the Active MJO is forecast holding while lowly tracking east to the dateline at day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model indicates the Active MJO is to dissipate at day 5, then dissipating with a moderate Inactive MJO signal developing on the dateline at day 10 with a solid Active MJO taking over the Maritime Continent and easing into the West KWGA at day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (2/2) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was very weak over the Western Pacific today and is to slowly track east to the Atlantic over the next 15 days. The GEFS model suggests the same thing initially, but with the Active Phase quickly backtracking to the Maritime Continent at day 5 then building to moderate strength in the far West Pacific at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (2/2) This model depicts the Inactive Phase was building in the West Pacific today. The Inactive Phase is to push east while slowly losing strength pushing into Central America on 3/13. A modest Active MJO signal is to start building in the West Pacific/KWGA 2/27 pushing to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 3/13.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/1) This model depicts the Active Phase was fading in the KWGA with modest west anomalies still filling the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to starting to develop in the Eastern KWGA. The forecast has the Inactive Phase developing and tracking east and out of the KWGA on 2/20 but with west anomalies holding in the core of the KWGA. The Active Phase is to set up 2/21 with moderate west anomalies still holding through the end of the model run on 2/29.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/2) This model depicts the Active Phase was fading in the KWGA with modest west anomalies still filling the KWGA with the Inactive Phase starting to develop in the Eastern KWGA. The forecast has the Inactive Phase developing and filling the KWGA 2/9 holding through 2/18 but with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA. A modest Active MJO Phase is to set up 2/20 with moderate west anomalies building into the KWGA holding till 3/10. Beyond that the Inactive Phase of the MJO is forecast developing on 3/5 but with weak west anomalies holding till 3/21 then fading while the Inactive Phase continue through 4/7. The Active Phase is to develop 3/29 building solid through the end of the model run on 4/31 with solid west anomalies in control in the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to the California coast. The second contour line is to hold to 4/4 then fade with a single contour line retaining control beyond. A high pressure bias built in the Indian Ocean and is to hold for the foreseeable future. East anomalies set up in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22/19 and are to hold for the foreseeable future.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/2) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was pushing east to 176E while the 29 deg isotherm was steady at 172W. The 28 deg isotherm line had backtracked from 157W to 164W and was steady at 163W today. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing into Ecuador solidly. Anomaly wise, Kelvin Wave #6 was under the dateline at +4 degs tracking from the Maritime Continent moving east with it's leading edge at 148W. Lesser warm water was pushing into Ecuador. Warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific from 110 meters upwards. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/28 indicates warm water had formed a Kelvin Wave extending from 125E under the Dateline east to 140W at +3 degrees with lesser warm water pushing east from there (impacting Ecuador). The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (2/2) A broad pocket of +5 cms anomalies is tracking east between 165E-120W and pockets east from there into Ecuador. .

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (2/1) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate solid warm anomalies were along the coast of Chile up into Peru, Ecuador and Central America then trying to track west on the equator to the Galapagos but far weaker west of there and limited only to pockets. A broad pocket of cool anomalies was south of the equator and well off Peru filling the area from 5S south down to 20S reaching west to 115W and east to 87W. Weak warm anomalies were on and north of the equator building while tracking west to the dateline.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/1): Today a broad area of moderate warming continued filling the area from Chile and Peru west out to 115W but fading some in coverage. Warming also extended on the equator from Ecuador out to 120W. This was a new development, likely attributable to the demise of east anomalies and the Inactive Phase of the MJO and the Active Phase moving over the East Pacific now. The short term trend is towards weak warming in the Southeast Pacific.
Hi-res Overview: (2/1) A steady pocket of cool anomalies is holding south of the equator starting at 5S and just off Peru reaching west out to 120W and steady compared to weeks past. Warm anomalies were building along Chile and Peru stronger up to Ecuador and Central America up to Mexico. Otherwise gentle warming was over the equator from Ecuador out to 140W and stronger west of there. Warmer than normal water was north of the equator reaching north to 20N west to the dateline. Water temps appear to be stable mildly favoring El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/2) Today's temps were falling some at +0.121 but previously much lower down at -0.900 on 12/12. Temps peaked prior at +1.55 degrees on 12/2 after a long runup from negative anomalies in October. It now appears we are in a falling trend.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(2/2) Temps were falling some today at +0.333. Temps peaked on 11/14 at +0.509 degs, fell some to -0.018 on 11/28, and are now trying to rebuild. The trend has been steadily generally upwards since Sept when they bottomed out at -0.6 degs (9/14).

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (2/2) Actual's indicate a cooling trend set up late summer with temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept then the trend started rising to +0.25 degs in early Oct holding to Dec 1 and then rising to +0.75 degs Jan 1 and to +0.9 degs on Feb 1. From there the forecast depicts a steady fall to 0.0 in mid-May then diving negative appearing to be moving to La Nina down at -1.25 in early Oct and stabilizing there. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for the Winter and Spring, then turning towards La Nina in the core of Summer.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Jan 2020 Plume depicts temps are at +0.42 degs, and are to slow fade to neutral +0.00 in June 2020, then holding there till Sept 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (2/2): The daily index was negative today at -13.59. The 30 day average was weakly positive at 0.77. The 90 day average was rising slightly at -5.06, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): Dec +0.45, Nov +1.03, Oct +0.27 Sept +1.11, August +0.60, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (2/2):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lTTnUaHlBM&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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