BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, February 16, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (2/16) in North and Central CA waves were head high to near 1 ft overhead and clean and lined up with decent form breaking on the inner bar and fun. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and weakly lined up and soft with decent form and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high on the sets and weakly lined up and mushed but clean with nice conditions. In Ventura County surf was thigh to sometimes near waist high and clean with decent form but weak with some light warble in the water. Central Orange County had sets at chest high and lined up and soft and crumbled from a steady west-southwest flow but rideable. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had some rare head high sets and lined up with decent form but a bit textured if not lightly warbled from an light onshore flow. North San Diego had sets at chest to shoulder high and lined up with decent form and clean making for rideable waves. Oahu's North Shore had sets at 2-3 ft overhead and lined up with good form and clean early with light offshore winds. The South Shore had sets to waist high and weakly lined up and clean with good form but soft. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist to chest high and clean with light southeast winds early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (2/16) California was getting fading background swell from a variety of sources but mainly coming from a broad gale west of the dateline early last week and not well defined. Hawaii was getting fading swell from a gale that developed in the Gulf Thurs-Fri (2/14) tracking east with with 22 ft seas targeting Hawaii then peaking early Sat (2/15) with 27 ft seas targeting the US West Coast. That swell is also bound for California. A gale developed just off the Kuril Islands Fri (2/14) with 36 ft seas aimed briefly east with secondary energy tracking east up to the dateline Sat-Sun (2/16) with seas 25-26 ft. And another gale is forecast developing in the Western and Central Gulf Tues-Wed (2/19) with up to 30 ft seas aimed east. And another is forecast off Japan moving to the dateline Wed-Fri (2/21) with 28-29 ft seas seas with remnant energy tracking northeast through the Gulf Sat-Sun (2/23) with 28 ft seas fading to 25 ft aimed east.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (2/16) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan on the 32N latitude line with winds to 160 kts reaching east to a point 600 nmiles north of Hawaii forming a weak generalized trough over the far Western Gulf offering some limited support for gale formation. The jet was split east of there with most energy riding northeast in the northern branch pushing inland over the Pacific Northwest making for some weather there. Over the next 72 hours starting Mon (2/17) the trough is to push east and fade gone on Tues (2/18) north of Hawaii offering nothing. But winds energy is to start rebuilding in the jet off Japan with winds to 180 kts reaching to the split point still north of Hawaii on Wed (2/19) offering potential. Beyond 72 hours more of the same is forecast with the jet running east off Japan to a steady split point north of Hawaii with winds 160-180 kts and no clearly defined troughs forecast but with it still providing generalized support for gale formation through Sun (2/23). At that time the split point is to ease east some to 145W with the northern branch tracking into the Pacific Northwest offering more weather there but nothing down into California.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (2/16) background swell from a previous broad system that developed west of the dateline was fading along the US West Coast and of no particular interest. Swell was hitting Hawaii from a gale previously northwest of the Islands and bound for the US West Coast (see Gulf Gale below). Swell is tracking towards primarily Hawaii from a gale previously off the Kuril ISlands and secondary fetch that tracked to the dateline (see Kuril Island Gale ad Secondary Kuril-Dateline Gales below). Some energy to also eventually reach the US West Coast.

On Mon PM (1/27) a gale is forecast developing just west of the dateline with 40-45 kts west winds and seas building from 25 ft at 35N 174E aimed east. On Tues AM (2/18) the gale is to track east with 40 kt west winds and seas 27 ft at 37N 177W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to lift east-northeast with west winds 35-40 kts and seas 28 ft at 40.5N 170W aimed east. On Wed AM (2/19) the gale is to track into the Gulf with west winds 40 kts over a tiny area and seas 31 ft at 43.5N 161.75W aimed east. The gale is to be fading in the evening in the Gulf with fetch fading from 30-35 kts and seas 26 ft up at 46.5N 154W aimed east. Something to monitor.

And Tues AM (2/18) a small gale is to push off Japan with 40-45 kt west winds and seas building from 26 ft at 38.5N 154E aimed east. Fetch stationary in the evening at 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft at 40.25N 156.75E aimed east. On Wed AM (2/19) the gale is to be regrouping off Japan with west winds 40 kts and seas 23 ft @ 37.75N 162E aimed east. Fetch tracking east in the evening at 40-45 kts with seas 30 ft at 35.75N 156.5E aimed east. On Thurs AM (2/20) fetch is to finally be tracking east at 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft at 35.75N 164E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be approaching the dateline with west winds 35-40 kts and seas 29 ft at 35.5N 173E aimed east. On Fri AM (2/21) fetch is to be pushing east of the dateline at 35+ kts with seas 24 ft at 36N 180W aimed east. with fading out from there. In the evening fetch is to be moving into the Gulf with west winds 35 kts and seas 25 ft at 40.75N 166W aimed east. Fetch to continune east-northeast in the Gulf through Sun AM (2/23) with seas up to 28 ft. Something to monitor.

Gulf Gale
On Thurs AM (2/13) a gale was developing just northwest of Hawaii producing 30+ kt northwest winds and seas 19 ft at 29N 177W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale was northwest of Hawaii producing northwest winds 30-35 kts with seas 20 ft at 30N 169W aimed east. Fri AM (2/14) fetch was lifting northeast in the Central Gulf at 30-40 kts from the northwest with seas 19-20 ft at 35N 159W aimed east. In the evening fetch was starting to track east at 35 kts over a solid area with seas 24 ft at 42N 158W aimed east. On Sat AM (2/15) fetch was tracking east over the Central Gulf with west winds 35-40 kts over a solid area and seas 27 ft at 42N 152.75W aimed east. Fetch faded some in the evening at 35 kts tracking east with seas 28 ft at 42.5N 146W aimed east. The gale faded Sun AM (2/16) with 30 kt west winds off Oregon and seas fading from 23 ft at 43.5N 140W aimed east. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell fading Sun (2/16) from 4.2 ft @ 11-12 secs (4.5-5.0 ft). Dribbles Mon (2/17) fading from 2.1 ft @ 11-12 secs (2.5 ft) and getting overrun by new swell. Swell Direction: 315-320 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (2/17) building to 8.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (11.5 ft). Swell fading Tues (2/18) from 6.8 ft @ 13 secs (8.5 ft). Dribbles Wed (2/19) fading from 3.3 ft @ 11 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 293 degrees

Kuril Island Gale
On Thurs AM (2/13) a gale started building along the Kuril Islands with northwest winds building from 35-40 kts with seas 23 ft at 37.5N 153E aimed east. In the evening the gale built to storm status just off the Central Kuril Islands with northwest winds 50-55 kts and seas 32 ft at 44.5N 158.5E aimed east. On Fri AM (2/14) northwest winds were fading from 45 kts still locked off the Kuril Islands not moving east and seas 36 ft at 45.5N 162.75E aimed east. In the evening the gale remained stationary with northwest winds 40 kts and seas fading from 27 ft at 44.75N 162E aimed east. On Sat AM (2/15) northwest winds were 40 kts holding stationary with seas 27 ft at 45.5N 160.25E aimed east. Fetch in the core of the gale faded while secondary fetch developed south of it. That is being tracked as a separate system (see below).

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Mon (2/17) building to 3.9 ft @ 14-15 secs late (5.5 ft). Swell building Tues (2/18) to 6.4 ft @ 14-15 secs in the afternoon (9.0 ft). Swell becoming overrun by Secondary Kuril-Dateline Swell beyond (see below). Swell Direction: 315 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (2/19) building to 2.7 ft @ 16 secs later (4.0-4.5 ft ) and very inconsistent. Swell building on Thurs (2/20) at 5.6 ft @ 14-15 secs steady through the day (8.0 ft). Swell Direction: 304 degrees

Secondary Kuril-Dateline Gale
On Fri PM (2/14) secondary fetch was building off Japan associated with a gale fading off the Kuril Islands (see above) producing northwest winds 30-35 kts over a broad area and seas building from 24 ft at 36N 163E aimed east-southeast. On Sat AM northwest winds were half way to the dateline at 35 kts over a broad area with seas 25-26 ft at 34N 163E aimed east. In the evening northwest winds were 35 kts extending from the Kuril Islands to the south dateline with seas 27-28 ft at 34.75N 165.25E aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well. On Sun AM (2/16) a broad elongated fetch of 30-35 kt northwest winds were extending from the Kuril's to the dateline with seas fading from 25 ft at 33N 170E. Fetch fading out in the evening with seas fading from 24 ft at 35.25N 173E aimed east and southeast. Swell pushing towards Hawaii initially.

Oahu: Expect swell continuing on Wed (2/19) at 6.1 ft @ 14-15 secs early (8.5 ft). Swell holding on Thurs (2/20) at 5.0 ft @ 14 secs (7.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (2/21) from 4.3 ft @ 13 secs (5.5 ft). Dribbles on Sat (2/22) fading from 2.8 ft @ 11-12 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 310 degrees

North CA: Expect swell continuing on Fri (2/21) at 6.0 ft @ 14-15 secs later (8.5 ft). Swell holding Sat (2/22) at 6.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (9.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (2/23) from 5.1 ft @ 12-13 secs early (6.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (2/24) fading from 3.7 ft @ 12 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 290 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 7,000 ft on Sun (2/16) down to 5,500 ft 2/17. After that freeze levels rise to 7,500 ft 2/18 then 10.500 ft 2/20 and 11,000 ft 2/21 and 12,000 ft 2/23.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
A gale developed in the Southwest Pacific (see below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

Southwest Pacific Gale
A gale developed southeast of New Zealand on Thurs AM (2/13) with southwest winds 40 kts and seas 23 ft at 61S 177W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 40 kts aimed well northeast with seas 29 ft at 59.75S 166.5W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (2/14) fetch was fading from 35 kts with seas 27 ft at 57S 159.75W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas faded out after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (2/24) building to 1.1 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (1.5 ft). Swell 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early on Tues (2/25) (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Dissipating after that. Swell Direction 200 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Sun (2/23) yet anther gale to possibly develop on the dateline.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

Modoki La Nina in Control
MJO Pattern Now 'Unstuck'
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak La Nina mode focused on the dateline, but not expected to build or move much beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/15) 5 day average winds were moderate to strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (2/16) Today a mix of modest east and west anomalies were filling the KWGA and weak west anomalies were dissolving over the Maritime Continent. The forecast indicates weak east anomalies to start taking over the core of the KWGA on 2/19 and building to moderate strength 2/22 holding through end of the model run on 3/4 but not particularly strong. no west anomalies indicated.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/16) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing west to 172E. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador and building and reasonably solid in depth. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West and East Pacific with a pocket of solidly cooler anomalies at -3 degs present down 100 meters between 155W to 110W filling the Central Pacific thermocline but weaker than days past. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/12 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from the 170W east to 80W at up to -4.0 to -5.0 degs below normal with the coldest temps centered at 115W. The density and volume of that cold water at depth was declining in the west and building in the east. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building now pushing east to 165W in one finger. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (2/12) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from the Galapagos west to 170E with -10 cms from 100W to 175W and -15 cms building in a pocket at 160W. It appears the cool pool is stable if perhaps fading some but westward displaced. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (2/12) the cool pool was fading in intensity while holding in coverage from just east of the dateline to just off Ecuador. A La Nina pattern is in play with 6 pulses so far (the first showed in Feb). Warm water is limited west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer and building in coverage.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (2/15) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was filling the equatorial Pacific from 110W to 160E strongest from 140W to 175E. Warm anomalies were over the East and West Pacific. This continues to look like a Modoki La Nina (westward displaced).
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/15): Temps were warming solidly over the Equatorial Pacific from Peru to Ecuador then a thin cool stream was on the equator from the Galapagos to 110W and neutral west of there but with pockets of warming intermixed. The trend was building warmer.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/16) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were falling at +0.544 after peaking a day earlier (2/15) at +0.573. A long building pattern developed starting from -0.962 (1/28). Previously temps held near -0.5 degs starting 11/30. They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/16) Today's temps were rising steadily at -0.794 after falling to -1.5 (1/25) after peaking at -1.106 (1/18) and had been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.6 week of 2/5 and steady. Previously temps were -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27), -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.60 Dec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -1.09 (NDJ), -0.93 (OND), -0.82 (SON), -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec, -0.75 in Jan and -0.6 in Feb. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasted, including Feb 2025.
Forecast (2/16) - Temps to rise to -0.30 in March and -0.25 in April 2025, neutral in July and +0.45 in Oct. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. In all it looks like we're moving out of a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The January 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.612 (down from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 8th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps rise from here forward to above -0.381 degs in March (MAM). The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here forward and near 0.0 on MJJ and the Statistic rising to -0.240 at the same time. In other words, we are at the peak of La Nina now. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (2/16/25) the Daily Index was negative at -0.58 and negative the last 4 days, positive the previous 28 days, negative the previous 18 days, but otherwise mostly positive before that.
The 30 day average was stable at +12.92 and has been rising the entire last 30 days, in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was steady at +8.76 and building weakly into La Nina territory.
We are in ENSO neutral status moving towards La Nina.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. In Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec and now -1.32 in Jan. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like'). We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table