Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 13.5 secs from 240 degrees. Water temp 77.0 (Barbers Pt), 76.6 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.5 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp NA
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 8.0 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 5.5 ft @ 13.7 secs from 308 degrees. Water temp 76.1 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 4.7 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 10.1 secs from 238 degrees. Wind east at 12-16 kts. Water temperature 55.6 degs, 54.1 (Harvest 071), 55.2 (Topanga 103), 55.4 (Long Beach 215), 55.8 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 58.1 (Del Mar 153), 57.9 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.5 ft @ 12.2 secs from 292 degrees. At W. Santa Barbara (46054) swell was 5.8 ft @ 10.4 secs from 293 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.7 ft @ 9.9 secs from 264 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.6 ft @ 12.2 secs from 270 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.0 ft @ 12.4 secs from 262 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 4.4 ft @ 9.3 secs from 283 degrees. Water temperature 57.6 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 4.7 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 3.8 ft @ 10.2 secs from 299 degrees. Wind east 10-12 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and SSE 7-8 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and N 8 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 52.2 degs (Pt Reyes 029), NA (San Francisco 46026), 52.9 (SF Bar 142), 53.6 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 53.2 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 52.9 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (3/4) in North and Central CA waves were chest high and lined up and real clean and nearly closed out breaking hard on the inner bar. Protected breaks were waist high and weakly lined up and soft but real clean. At Santa Cruz surf was shoulder to head high and lined up with good form and super clean. In Ventura County waves were waist to maybe chest high and lined up but a bit sectioney and clean but with some warble in the water. Central Orange County had sets at chest high and lined up coming from the north but heavily warbled and with a solid current running north to south. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at thigh to waist high and lined up but mushed and warbled and soft. North San Diego had sets to waist high and lined up and fairly clean but with some intermixed warble and a bit closed out. Oahu's North Shore had sets at chest to near head high on the sets and lined up with moderate form and clean but a bit warbled from northeasterly trades. The South Shore was flat to thigh high and weakly lined up and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at chest high and chopped from brisk east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (3/4) California was getting locally generated northwest windswell and Hawaii was getting swell from a weak system that developed while falling southeast from Kuril Islands over the dateline Thurs-Sat (3/1) with up to 26 ft seas. A broad gale was developing over the North Dateline region Tues (3/4) forecast moving over the dateline Wed (3/5) with up to 27 ft seas aimed east then tracking east through the Gulf Thurs-Fri (3/7) with 23 ft seas. After that a gale is forecast developing off Kamchatka tracking to the North Dateline region Sat-Mon (3/9) generating 28-31 ft seas aimed east. A local low is forecast off Central CA fall south off of Southern CA on Mon-Tues (3/11) producing up to 27 ft seas aimed southeast. And another is forecast half way to the dateline Mon-Tues (3/11) producing 30 ft seas aimed southeast but faltering before reaching the dateline.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (3/4) the jetstream was split with the north and southern branches tracking east parallel to each other with the northern branch tracking east on 45N latitude line then consolidating with the southern branch north of Hawaii starting to form a backdoor trough and poised to push onshore over North CA. To the west a trough was developing in the northern branch just west of the dateline being fed by 180 kts winds offering some support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the trough off California is to move onshore on Wed (3/5) producing weather the dateline trough pushes east over the Northwestern Gulf Thurs (3/6) then deepening off the Pacific Northwest Fri (3/7) likely developing into yet another backdoor trough relative to California. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (3/8) the jet is to become a bit consolidated pushing east off Japan then splitting halfway to the dateline with the northern branch running up over the Eastern Aleutians before falling hard south again forming the aforementioned backdoor trough and the southern branch tracking east down at 17N pushing over Baja. The backdoor trough is to become very pinched on Sun (3/9) with it's apex down off Pt Conception then moving onshore there early Tues (3/11) producing weather for California. On Tues (3/11 back to the west the pattern is to hold with the jet almost consolidated over and just off Japan then split east of there before barely consolidating while moving over California. The northern branch is to be running east on the 45N latitude line with winds to 160 kts in one pocket with no troughs nor support for gale development forecast.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (3/4) swell was fading in Southern California from a storm previously over the West Gulf (see West Gulf Storm below). Swell from another gale that tracked southeast from the Kuril Islands to the dateline was hitting Hawaii (see Kuril Gale below).

A broad system was developing off Kamchatka (west of the North Dateline region) on Tues AM (3/4) with 35-40 kt west winds filling the Northwest Pacific with seas 29 ft centered at 47.5N 173.75E aimed east. In the evening west winds to be 35-40 kts approaching the North Dateline with seas 27 ft over a broad area at 48.5N 174E aimed east. On Wed AM (3/5) west winds to be falling southeast just west of the dateline at 35 kts with 27 ft seas at 44N 177.25E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be falling southeast while fading from 30+ kts with seas 24 ft at 42N 178W aimed east. Fetch rebuilding to 30-35 kts while easing east Thurs AM (3/6) over the far Northwestern Gulf with seas 23 ft at 445N 172W aimed east. Fetch to push east in the evening at 30-35 kts still over a solid area with seas 23 ft at 44N 164.5W aimed east. Fetch to reach the Northwest Gulf Fri AM (3/7) with northwest winds 30 kts and seas 23-24 ft at 43.5N 160W aimed southeast. Fetch fading from barely 30 kts in the evening from the northwest with seas fading from 23 ft at 41.5N 155W aimed southeast. Fetch gone after that. Possible swell for Hawaii and the US West Coast by the weekend. Something to monitor.

West Gulf Storm
On Tues (2/25) a new gale developed just west of the dateline producing northwest winds at 45 kts and seas building from 23 ft at 35N 168E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale lifted east-northeast with winds building to 45 kts over a decent sized area and seas 27 ft at 34.75N 178E aimed east and southeast. On Wed AM (2/26) the gale built to storm status with west-northwest winds 50-55 kts and seas building from 33 ft at 37N 171.5W aimed east and southeast. In the evening west winds were lifting east-northeast at 50 kts and seas 43 ft at 40N 165W aimed east. On Thurs AM (2/27) the storm was fading to gale status now in the Northwestern Gulf with west winds 45-50 kts and seas 46 ft at 43N 158W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to fade from 40 kts from the west and seas fading from 39 ft at 46N 152.25W aimed east. Fri AM (2/28) fetch is to be fading from 35 kts in the Northern Gulf with seas fading from 33 ft at 48.5N 149W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Dribbles on Tues (3/4) fading from 2.9 ft @ 12-13 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 294 degrees

Kuril Gale
A gale developed just off the Kuril Islands falling southeast Thurs-Sat (3/1) with northwest winds 35 kts and seas 27 ft Fri AM (2/28) at 39N 166E aimed southeast, Fri PM with seas 27 ft at 37N 171.5E aimed southeast at Hawaii, Sat AM (3/1) with seas 25 ft at 36.5N 177.5E aimed southeast then fading in the evening with 22 ft seas at 36.75N 176.75W aimed southeast. Small swell to result for Hawaii.

Oahu: Swell fading Tues AM (3/4) from 4.6 ft @ 14 secs early (6.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed AM (3/5) fading from 2.9 ft @ 12 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 310 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (3/5) northwest winds are to be 10-15 kts for North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon high pressure builds with northwest winds 15 kts for North and Central CA. Rain developing for Central CA mid-AM building down over Southern CA in the afternoon and holding in the evening. Snow for the Sierra late morning holding in the afternoon and evening.
Thurs AM (3/6) high pressure builds with northwest winds 15-20 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. Light rain possible for Central and Southern CA all day and building for southern CA in the evening. . Light snow for for the Sierra all day fading in the evening. .
Fri AM (3/7) northwest winds to be 20 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North Ca and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Light rain for Big Sur southward to San Diego early. Snow for the mountains of Southern CA early.
Sat AM (3/8) a weak pressure pattern sets up with northwest winds 5-10 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon south winds to be 5-10 kts for Cape Mendocino and 5 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Sun AM (3/9) a front sets up off the coast with south winds 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and south 10-15 kts for the rest of North CA and south winds 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon low pressure builds off Central CA with south winds 15 kts for North CA and south winds 10-15 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast
Mon AM (3/10) the low is to be circulating off Monterey Bay with southeast winds 15-20 kts for North CA and south to southwest winds 15-20 kts for Central CA. in the afternoon the low moves southeast off Pt Conception with northwest winds 10 kts for North CA and south winds 10-15 kts for Central CA and south winds 15 kts for Southern CA. rain for the coast of Central and Southern CA in the afternoon and evening.
Tues AM (3/11) the low is to be off Ensanada Baja with northwest winds 10-15 ks for North CA and northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA and south winds 10 kts for Southern CA. Rain limited to Southern CA all day.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 41, 46, 41, and 21 inches with some a little Wed-Thurs (3/6) and most on Tues-Wed (3/12)..

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 6,500 ft Tues (3/4) falling to 4,000 ft Wed-Thurs (3/6) dropping to 2,000 ft briefly late on Thurs then rebuilding to 6,500 ft Fri (3/7) and pretty much holding at 7,000 ft through Mon (3/10) before falling again to 5,000 ft Tues (3/11) dropping to near seas level beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
Previously a gale developed off New Zealand (see below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

New Zealand Gale
A gale developed Mon AM (2/24) well to the north and due east of New Zealand with south winds 40 kts and seas building from 23 ft at 46S 164W aimed north-northeast. South winds were building in coverage in the evening at 40 kts with seas 25 ft at 47S 155W aimed northeast. Tues AM (2/25) south winds were 45-50 kts with seas 27 ft at 49S 147.5W aimed northeast. In the afternoon fetch tracked east at 45 kts with seas 35 ft at 50.5S 139.75W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (2/26) southwest fetch faded from 35 kts with seas fading from 31 ft at 52S 130.5W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated after that. Perhaps a semi legit early season southern hemi swell could result.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (3/5) building to 1.2 ft @ 17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell builds Thurs (3/6) to 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (3/7) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (3/8) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 201 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a small but more robust gale is possibly to develop off Kamchatka on Sat AM (3/8) producing west winds at 35-45 kts and seas 27 ft at 47.75N 176.75W aimed northeast. In the evening west winds to hold off Kamchatka at 35-40 kts with seas 28 ft at 49N 174E aimed east. On Sun AM (3/9) 35-40 kts west winds are to start migrating east and approaching the dateline with seas 29-30 ft at 50N 175E aimed east. In the evening west winds to be fading from 35 kts over the dateline with seas 30 ft at 50.5N 177.5E aimed east. Mon AM (3/10) west winds to be fading from 35 kts over the dateline with seas fading from 27 ft at 50N 175W aimed east. in the evening fetch is to be fading from 30 kts from the west with seas 25 ft at 50N 170W aimed east. Something to monitor.

A tiny gale is forecast developing off San Francisco Mon AM (3/10) with 35 kt northwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 36N 134W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale to fall southeast with 35 kts northwest winds off Pt Conception and seas 27 ft at 32N 130.5W aimed southeast at Southern CA. Fetch fading Tues Am (3/11) just of Southern CA with seas fading from 22 ft at 30.5N 125W aimed southeast.

And yet another gale is forecast developing just off Japan Mon AM (3/10) with 35 kts northwest winds and seas 23 ft at 37N 155e aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds build to 45-50 kts with seas 30 ft at 38.25N 160E aimed southeast. On Tues AM (3/11) west winds to be 55 kts with seas 32 ft at 39.5N 166E aimed east. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 45 kts with seas 27 ft at 40.5N 169.25E aimed east. Something to monitor.

And possibly another local gale is to be developing off North CA on Tues PM (3/11).

Modoki La Nina Fading
MJO Pattern Weak
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and expected to start fading beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/3) 5 day average winds were calm over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest west over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/4) Today moderate west anomalies were over the Maritime Continent with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates east anomalies building to strong status over the KWGA on 3/5 holding through the end of the model run on 3/20. West anomalies are over the Maritime Continent at moderate strength and are to hold into 4/8 then fading to weak status holding through the end of the model run but not significant.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (3/1) Currently a moderate Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) filling the KWGA on days 5 through 15 building to strong status. The dynamic model depicts the same thing. The Inactive Phase is here.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (3/4) - The models depict the Active Phase was modest over the West Indian Ocean. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the East Central Indian Ocean and very weak 2 weeks out. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with it at modest status.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (3/4) This model depicts a modest Inactive Phase (dry air) over the KWGA slowly easing east and east of the KWGA on 3/14. At that time a weak Active Phase (wet air) is to be building over the KWGA on 3/19 filling it through 4/3. A weak Inactive Phase (dry air) is to set up over the KWGA 3/8 holding through the last day of the model run on 4/13.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/3) Today the Inactive Phase (contours) were moving into the far West KWGA with moderate east anomalies in control of the KWGA. Inactive Phase contours are to move across the KWGA through 3/22 with east anomalies at moderate to strong status filling the KWGA over that window then fading to modest strength 3/23 through the end of the model run on 3/31.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/4) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA with the Inactive Phase building over the KWGA. East anomalies and Active contours are to build to strong status 3/5-3/11 then weakening into 3/27 and Inactive contours dissipate. The Active Phase is to push into the KWGA 3/15 with west anomalies forecast moving over the KWGA filling it on 3/28 and beyond signaling the end of La Nina. The Active Phase contours are to hold in the east through 5/23. Beyond a weak Inactive MJO is forecast 4/13 through the end of the model run on 6/1 but with west anomalies fully in control of the Pacific. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28/24) with one contour and is to hold through the end of the model run though starting to ease into the West Pacific 4/29 and reaching the dateline at the end of the model run. The high pressure bias developed over the dateline 11/16/24 with 1 contour line with a second 12/7 and a third developed 1/18. The third is to fade 4/12 and the second 5/3. The third is to be east of the KWGA on 5/15. This suggests a stronger and later developing La Nina pattern than is normal. This is not as hoped for but not horrible. The CFS modes seems to always have an early lead on newly developing trends (if a little bit overhyped).

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/4) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 173E (from 172E). The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador and reasonably solid in depth over all the rest of the equatorial Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West Pacific and all but gone in the east. A pocket cooler anomalies at -3 degs were present down 110 meters at 150W with -2 degs anomalies reaching east to 120W and weaker negative anomalies east to Ecuador filling the Central Pacific thermocline but markedly less concentrated than days past. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/27 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from 160E east to 80W at mostly -0.5 to -1.0 degs with one tiny pocket at -4.0 degs below normal centered at 110W. The density and volume of cold water at depth was declining fast in the east and west and getting generic. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building now pushing east to 165W. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (2/27) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from the Galapagos west to 178W with -15-20 cms in 2 pockets straddling the equator at 155W and losing coverage. -10 cms anomalies were from 145W to 165W. It appears the cool pool is fading and westward displaced and moving more to the west. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (2/27) the cool pool was fading in intensity and coverage between 161W to 90W but only at -0.5 to -1.0 degs below normal. A La Nina pattern is in play with 6 pulses so far (the first showed in Feb). Warm water is limited west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer and building in coverage reaching east to 172W.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/3) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was filling the Central equatorial Pacific between 140W to 160E and less concentrated than day past. Warm anomalies were over the East Pacific from Ecuador to 140W and filling the West Pacific. This looks like a Modoki La Nina (westward displaced) and fading at that.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/3): Temps were warming solidly over the entire Equatorial Pacific. The trend was building warmer.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/4) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were holding at +1.435 having peaked at +1.404 3/2 and started warming steadily from -0.962 on 1/28. Previously temps held near -0.5 degs starting 11/30. They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/2) Today's temps were steady at -0.250 and started rising on 1/25 from -1.5 degs after peaking at -1.106 (1/18) and had been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.2 degs week of 2/26 and rising. Previously temps were -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27), -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.60 Dec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -1.09 (NDJ), -0.93 (OND), -0.82 (SON), -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec, -0.75 in Jan and -0.6 in Feb. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasted, including Feb 2025.
Forecast (3/4) - Temps to rise to -0.25 in March fading in April to -0.45, rising to -0.05 in July and +0.20 in Oct. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. In all it looks like we're moving out of a weak La Nina to a neutral pattern.
IRI Consensus Plume: The February 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.501 (down from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 9th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to rise slightly from here to -0.387 degs in March (MAM). The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here forward and near 0.0 on JJA and the Statistic rising to -0.581 at the same time. In other words, we are past the peak of La Nina now. The Dynamic model has temps falling to -0.352 OND while the statistic model down to -0.626. The models are split but generally suggests a return to near neutral next Fall.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (3/4/25) the Daily Index was positive at +3.30 and weakly positive the last 11 days, negative the previous 9 days, positive the previous 28 days, negative the previous 18 days, but otherwise mostly positive before that.
The 30 day average was falling at +5.70 and has been generally falling the last 19 days, through still in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was falling some at +5.79 and weakly in La Nina territory. .

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. In Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec and now -1.32 in Jan. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like'). We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.