Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 14.9 secs from 296 degrees. Water temp 77.0 (Barbers Pt), 76.5 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.5 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp NA
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 9.0 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 7.3 ft @ 13.9 secs from 316 degrees. Water temp 75.9 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 10.5 secs from 269 degrees. Wind east at 8-10 kts. Water temperature 54.7 degs, 51.8 (Harvest 071), 53.8 (Topanga 103), 53.8 (Long Beach 215), 55.4 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 56.3 (Del Mar 153), 55.4 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.1 ft @ 9.3 secs from 299 degrees. At W. Santa Barbara (46054) swell was 5.8 ft @ 10.2 secs from 298 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.3 ft @ 10.4 secs from 265 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 2.2 ft @ 12.4 secs from 253 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.0 secs from 239 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 4.2 ft @ 10.1 secs from 280 degrees. Water temperature 57.9 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 6.1 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 4.2 ft @ 10.3 secs from 293 degrees. Wind north 6-8 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NNW 6-7 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and ENE 14 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 51.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), NA (San Francisco 46026), 52.3 (SF Bar 142), 52.5 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 51.4 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 52.5 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (3/8) in North and Central CA waves were chest to head high and lined up with decent form breaking only on the inner bar and fairly clean but with some warble coming from the south on top. Protected breaks were waist to maybe chest high and weakly lined up and soft but clean. At Santa Cruz surf was shoulder to hear head high and lined up with good form and super clean but real soft. In Ventura County waves were thigh high and lined up with decent form but soft and real clean. Central Orange County had sets at chest high and lined up coming from the north with decent form and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at thigh high and weakly lined up and mushed and soft but real clean. North San Diego had sets to waist high and lined up and clean but soft and a bit closed out. Oahu's North Shore had sets at 4-5 ft overhead on the sets and lined up with moderate form and clean but a bit warbled from northeasterly trades. The South Shore was flat to knee high and weakly lined up and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high or so and chopped from brisk northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (3/8) California was getting locally generated northwest windswell and Hawaii was getting swell from a broad gale that developed over the North Dateline region Tues (3/4) forecast moving over the dateline Wed (3/5) with up to 27 ft seas aimed east then tracked east through the Gulf Thurs-Fri (3/7) with 23 ft seas. After that a gale is forecast developing off Kamchatka tracking to the North Dateline region Sat-Mon (3/9) generating 27-31 ft seas aimed east. A gale is forecast developing half way to the dateline Mon-Tues (3/11) producing up to 38 ft seas aimed southeast the dissipating Wed (3/12) on the dateline with seas fading from 24 ft aimed east. Remnants of that gael to develop in the Northwestern Gulf Thurs-Fri (3/14) with 25 ft seas aimed east and approaching the Pacific Northwest on Sat (3/15) with 23 ft seas aimed east. And another weak gale is forecast developing off Japan on Fri-Sat (3/15) with 27 ft seas aimed east then dissipating. Seems like a Springtime pattern is setting up.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (3/8) the jetstream was split half way from Japan to the dateline with most energy in the northern branch tracking hard northeast ridging over the Eastern Aleutians then falling hard south over the Eastern Gulf with winds to 160 kts forming a tight pinched trough well off North CA before ridging northeast again and pushing inland over British Columbia. The southern branch was weak running east on the 15N latitude line and pushing inland over South Baja offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours the trough off California is to push east-southeast moving onshore over Southern CA on Tues (3/11) producing weather there. Back to the west the pattern is to remain unchanged. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (3/11) another trough is to develop in the Northern Gulf falling south and poised off North CA Wed (3/12) being fed by 150 kts winds moving onshore over San Francisco and the Monterey Bay area Thurs (3/13) likely making weather there again. At that time in the west the jet is to be weak and fragmented tracking east off Japan forming a weak trough off the North Kuril Islands perhaps offering some support for gale formation then trying to reconsolidate on the dateline but splitting again with both streams (north and south) running parallel to each other eventually pushing inland over Baja. The Kuril trough is to track east to the Northwestern Gulf on Fri (3/14) weakly supporting gale formation and looking poised to move eventually inland over the Pacific Northwest. Another weak trough is forecast developing off Kamchatka on Sat (3/15). In all the jet is weak and split and not very supportive of gale formation.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (3/8) swell was hitting Hawaii originating from a gale that developed off Kamchatka tracking east over the far North Pacific (see Kamchatka Gale below).

A small but more robust gale was developing off Kamchatka on Sat AM (3/8) producing west winds at 35-45 kts and seas 28 ft at 47.75N 177.5W aimed northeast. In the evening west winds to building in coverage off Kamchatka at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 50N 174E aimed east over a broad area. On Sun AM (3/9) 35-40 kt west winds are to start migrating east and approaching the dateline with seas 27-30 ft at 50N 177E aimed east. In the evening west winds to be fading from 35 kts over the dateline with seas 30 ft at 50.5N 179.5W aimed east. Mon AM (3/10) west winds to be fading from 30-35 kts over the dateline with seas fading from 25 ft at 50N 173W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30 kts from the west with seas 24 ft at 50N 168W aimed east. Fetch fading and falling southeast after that. Something to monitor.

A tiny gale is forecast developing off Pt Conception Sun PM (3/9) producing northwest winds at 35-40 kts and seas building. On Mon AM (3/10) northwest winds to be 35-40 kts well off Southern CA and seas building from 24 ft at 31N 131W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale to fall southeast with 30 kts northwest winds off Central Baja and seas 21 ft at 29N 129.5W aimed southeast at Baja. Fetch fading Tues Am (3/11) and no longer of interest. Something to monitor.

Kamchatka Gale
A broad system developed off Kamchatka (west of the North Dateline region) on Tues AM (3/4) with 35-40 kt west winds filling the Northwest Pacific with seas 29 ft centered at 47.5N 173.75E aimed east. In the evening west winds were 35-40 kts approaching the North Dateline with seas 27 ft over a broad area at 46.5N 173.75E aimed east. On Wed AM (3/5) west winds were falling southeast just west of the dateline at 35+ kts with 27 ft seas at 44.25N 176.5E aimed east. In the evening fetch was falling southeast while fading from 30+ kts with seas 23 ft at 41.75N 179.5W aimed east. Fetch rebuilt some to 30-35 kts while easing east Thurs AM (3/6) over the far Northwestern Gulf with seas 23 ft at 45N 171.5W aimed east. Fetch pushed east in the evening at 30+ kts still over a solid area with seas 23 ft at 44.5N 165.25W aimed east. Fetch reached the Northwest Gulf Fri AM (3/7) with northwest winds 30 kts and seas 22 ft at 44.25N 159.25W aimed southeast. Fetch was fading from 25 kts in the evening from the northwest with seas fading from 21 ft at 42.5N 157W aimed southeast. Fetch gone after that. Possible swell for Hawaii and the US West Coast by the weekend.

Oahu: Swell to peak Sat afternoon (3/8) at 5.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (7.5 ft). Swell fading Sun AM (3/9) fading from 4.4 ft @ 13 secs early (5.5 ft). Dribbles Mon (3/10) fading from 3.4 ft @ 11-12 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 320-325 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival late Sat (3/8) afternoon building to 4.9 ft @ 15 secs (7.0 ft). Swell holding into Sun AM (3/9) at 5.0 ft @ 13-14 secs early (6.5 ft). Swell to pulse on Mon AM (3/10) to 5.5 ft @ 14 secs (7.5 ft). Swell fading on Tues (3/11) from 4.3 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.5 ft). dribbles on Wed (3/12) fading from 2.8 ft @ 11 secs (3.0 ft) with local windswell building on top. Swell Direction: 292 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sun AM (3/9) a front sets up off the coast with south winds 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and south 5 kts for the rest of North and Central CA. In the afternoon low pressure builds off Central CA with south winds 10-15 kts for North CA and south winds 5-10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast
Mon AM (3/10) the low is to be circulating off Pt Conception with southeast to east winds 5-10 kts for North CA and south to southwest winds 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the low moves southeast off North Baja with northeast winds 10 kts for North CA and east to southeast winds 10 kts for Central CA and south winds 5 kts for Southern CA. No precip forecast.
Tues AM (3/11) the low is to be off Central Baja with northwest winds 10 ks for North CA and northeast winds 10 kts for Central CA and south winds 15 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon more low pressure sets up off Oregon with south winds 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and west 6 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. Rain limited to Cape Mendocino in the evening.
Wed AM (3/12) a weak front pushes down the North CA coast with south winds 15 kts for North CA and south winds 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the front pushes south with northwest winds 10-15 kts for North CA and south winds 20-25 kts for Central CA and south winds 10 kts for Southern CA. Rain for North CA early building south of Pt Conception in the afternoon and Southern CA in the evening. Snow for Tahoe mid-day getting heavy over the entire Sierra in the evening.
Thurs AM (3/13) high pressure takes control with northwest winds 15+ kts for North and Central CA and southwest winds 15 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA, 20 kts for Central CA and 20-25 kts for Southern CA. Rain for the entire state early stating to clear in the evening. Heavy snow for the Sierra early moderating through the day and almost gone in the evening.
Fri AM (3/14) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA early, and northwest 10-15 kts for Central CA and northwest 20+ kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon a weak front impacts Cape Mendocino with south winds 20-25 kts and south winds 10 kts for the rest of North CA, and northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA and northwest 20 kts for Southern CA. No meaningful precip forecast except rain for CApe Mendocino in the evening. No snow forecast.
Sat AM (3/15) south winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and south 5-10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. Rain for Cape Mendocino early. No snow forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 88, 108, 89, and 48 inches with 40% on Wed-Thurs (3/13) and the rest Sat-Mon (3/17).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 10,000 ft Sat (3/8) falling to 8,500 ft Sun-Mon (3/10) dropping to 5,500 ft early Wed (3/12) dropping to 2,500 ft fri (3/14). Freeze level rising some to 5,000 ft Sat (3/15) then falling beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
Previously a gale developed off New Zealand (see below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

New Zealand Gale
A gale developed Mon AM (2/24) well to the north and due east of New Zealand with south winds 40 kts and seas building from 23 ft at 46S 164W aimed north-northeast. South winds were building in coverage in the evening at 40 kts with seas 25 ft at 47S 155W aimed northeast. Tues AM (2/25) south winds were 45-50 kts with seas 27 ft at 49S 147.5W aimed northeast. In the afternoon fetch tracked east at 45 kts with seas 35 ft at 50.5S 139.75W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (2/26) southwest fetch faded from 35 kts with seas fading from 31 ft at 52S 130.5W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated after that. Perhaps a semi legit early season southern hemi swell could result.

Southern CA: Residuals on Sat (3/8) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 201 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours yet another gale is forecast developing just off Japan Mon AM (3/10) with 45-50 kt northwest winds and seas 23 ft at 37N 155E aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds build to 50-55 kts with seas 35 ft at 37.75N 158.75E aimed southeast. On Tues AM (3/11) northwest winds to be 45 kts with seas 36 ft at 36.5N 165.5E aimed southeast. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 35+ kts while the gale lifts northeast with seas 30 ft at 36.75N 172.5E aimed east. Fetch fading Wed AM (3/12) approaching the dateline from the northwest at 35 kts with seas 23 ft at 36N 178E aimed southeast at Hawaii. The gael to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

Remnants of the above gael to possibly redevelop in the Northwestern Gulf on Thurs AM (3/13) with west winds 35 kts and seas 22 ft at 44.5N 175.25W aimed east. In the evening west winds to be 35-40 kts with seas 25 ft at 47N 163W aimed east. On Fri AM (3/14) the gale is to be building in the Northern Gulf with west winds 30-35 kts over a broad area and seas 25 ft at 47.5N 160W aimed east. Fetch holding in the evening from the west at 30-35 kts with seas 24 ft at 47N 154W aimed east. On Sat AM (3/15) northwest fetch is to be falling southeast at 30-35 kts and seas 23 ft at 45N 150W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

And possibly a small gale to develop just off Japan Fri AM (3/14) with northwest winds 35-40 kts and seas 27 ft at 39.5N 152E aimed east.

Modoki La Nina Fading
MJO Pattern Weak
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and expected to start fading beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/7) 5 day average winds were weak west over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate to strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were strong west over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/8) Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA (West Pacific). The forecast indicates east anomalies holding at strong status filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 3/24. West anomalies are forecast building over the Maritime Continent at moderate strength starting 3/20 and beyond.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (3/7) Currently a strong Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) filling the KWGA on day 5 then easing east and weakening on day 10 and then gone on day 15 with a moderate Active MJO (wet air) moving from the Maritime Continent into the far West Pacific. The Dynamic model indicates the same thing but with the Active Phase not as strong on day 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (3/8) - The models depict the Active Phase was moderate over the West Indian Ocean. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the Central Maritime Continent and weak 2 weeks out. The dynamic model depicts the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (3/8) This model depicts a strong Inactive Phase (dry air) over the KWGA slowly easing east and east of the KWGA on 3/16. At that time a moderate Active Phase (wet air) is to be building over the KWGA filling it through 4/7. A weak Inactive Phase (dry air) is to set up over the KWGA 4/12 holding through the last day of the model run on 4/17.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/7) Today the Inactive Phase (contours) were filling the KWGA with strong east anomalies filling the KWGA. Inactive Phase contours are to move across the KWGA through 3/22 with east anomalies at moderate to strong status filling the KWGA over that window then fading to weak to modest strength 3/23 through the end of the model run on 4/4. Active contours are to be building east of the KWGA pushing into it 3/22 and holding through 4/3 but not making much eastward progress.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/8) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA with the Inactive Phase peaking over the KWGA. East anomalies and Active contours are to hold at strong status before dissipating on 3/24. The Active Phase is to push into the west KWGA 3/16 with west anomalies forecast moving over the KWGA filling it on 3/27 with west anomalies holding filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 6/5 signaling the end of La Nina. The Active Phase contours are to hold through 5/5. Beyond a weak Inactive MJO is forecast 4/9through the end of the model run but with west anomalies fully in control of the Pacific. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28/24) with one contour and is to hold through the end of the model run though starting to ease into the West Pacific 4/27 and reaching the dateline at the end of the model run. The high pressure bias developed over the dateline 11/16/24 with 1 contour line with a second 12/7 and a third developed 1/18. The third is to fade 4/12 and the second 4/25. The third is to be east of the KWGA on 5/5. This suggests a stronger and later developing La Nina pattern than is normal but also suggesting La Nina is poised to dissipate.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/8) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 173E. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador and reasonably solid in depth over all the width of the equatorial Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West Pacific and the far East Pacific. A pocket cooler anomalies at -3 degs were present down 110 meters at 150W with -2 degs anomalies reaching east to 110W and weaker negative anomalies east to Ecuador filling the Central Pacific thermocline but markedly less concentrated than days past. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/4 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from 160E east to 80W at mostly -0.5 to -1.0 degs. The density and volume of cold water at depth was declining fast in the east and west and getting more generic. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building now pushing east to 165W. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/4) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were neutral from Ecuador to 120W then negative at -5 cms from 120W west to 178W with -15-20 cms in 2 pockets straddling the equator at 155W and losing coverage. -10 cms anomalies were from 145W to 165W. It appears the cool pool is fading and moving west. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (3/4) the cool pool was fading fast in intensity and coverage mainly between 140W to 165W at.-0.5 to -1.0 degs below normal. A La Nina pattern is in play with 6 pulses so far (the first showed in Feb). Warm water is limited west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer and building in coverage reaching east to 170W.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/7) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was filling the Central equatorial Pacific between 140W to 160E and less concentrated than day past. Warm anomalies were over the East Pacific from Ecuador to 140W and building in density and also filling the West Pacific. This looks like a Modoki La Nina (westward displaced) and fading at that.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/7): Temps were warming slightly over the entire Equatorial Pacific. The trend was building warmer.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/8) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were fading some at +1.377 after peaking at +1.5 on 3/4 and started warming steadily from -0.962 on 1/28. Previously temps held near -0.5 degs starting 11/30. They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/8) Today's temps were rising steady at -0.145 and started rising on 1/25 from -1.5 degs after peaking at -1.106 (1/18) and had been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.2 degs week of 2/26 and rising. Previously temps were -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27), -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.60 Dec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -1.09 (NDJ), -0.93 (OND), -0.82 (SON), -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec, -0.75 in Jan and -0.6 in Feb. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasted, including Feb 2025.
Forecast (3/8) - Temps to rise to -0.25 in March fading in April to -0.4, rising to -0.2 in July and neutral +0.00 in Oct. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. In all it looks like we're moving out of a weak La Nina to a neutral pattern.
IRI Consensus Plume: The February 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.501 (down from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 9th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to rise slightly from here to -0.387 degs in March (MAM). The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here forward and near 0.0 on JJA and the Statistic rising to -0.581 at the same time. In other words, we are past the peak of La Nina now. The Dynamic model has temps falling to -0.352 OND while the statistic model down to -0.626. The models are split but generally suggests a return to near neutral next Fall.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (3/8/25) the Daily Index was positive at +10.96 and weakly positive the last 15 days, negative the previous 9 days, positive the previous 28 days, negative the previous 18 days, but otherwise mostly positive before that.
The 30 day average was falling at +3.40 and has been generally falling the last 23 days, through still weakly in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was falling some at +5.16 and weakly in La Nina territory. .

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec and now -1.32 in Jan and -1.45 in Feb. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.