BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, March 11, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (3/11) in North and Central CA waves were chest high and lined up with decent form breaking on the inner bar and clean but with some minimal warble intermixed. Protected breaks were waist high and weakly lined up and soft but clean. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to shoulder high and weakly lined up with good form and real clean but soft. In Ventura County waves were up to waist high and lined up with good form and real clean with light offshore winds but soft. Central Orange County had sets at waist to chest high and somewhat lined with decent form and clean but with some south warble running through it. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were flat to knee high and clean with some tetxture on it coming from the south. North San Diego had sets to waist high or so and lined up and clean but soft and a bit closed out. Oahu's North Shore had sets at waist to maybe chest high on on the sets and lined up with modest form and clean but a bit warbled from wrap around northeasterly trades. The South Shore was flat to knee high and weakly lined up and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at head high and chopped from brisk east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (3/11) California was getting swell from a broad gale that developed over the North Dateline region Tues (3/4) then over the dateline Wed (3/5) with up to 27 ft seas aimed east then tracked east through the Gulf Thurs-Fri (3/7) with 23 ft seas. Hawaii was getting only locally generated east-northeast tradewind windswell. A gale developed off Kamchatka tracking to the North Dateline region Sat-Mon (3/9) generating 27-30 ft seas aimed east. And a gale developed half way to the dateline Mon-Tues (3/11) producing up to 34 ft seas aimed southeast then is to dissipate Wed (3/12) on the dateline with seas fading from 26 ft aimed east. Remnants of that gale to redevelop in the Northwestern Gulf Thurs-Fri (3/14) with 29-30 ft seas aimed east. A gale is forecast developing in the Central Gulf Fri-Sat (3/15) tracking towards California with 25 ft seas then dissipating off the coast on Sun (3/16). And another weak gale is forecast developing off Japan on Fri-Sat (3/15) with 24 ft seas aimed east then dissipating on the North Dateline. Another to develop of North Japan Mon-Tues (3/18) tracking to the North Dateline region with up to 41 ft seas aimed east. Seems like a Springtime pattern is setting up.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (3/11) the jetstream was split half way between Japan and the dateline with most energy in the northern branch ridging hard northeast to the Central Aleutians then falling southeast over the Eastern Gulf with winds to 160 kts forming a newly developing trough well off the Pacific Northwest. From there the jet fell southeast with a tight pinched trough off Central CA creating weather there before pushing inalnd over Central Baja. The southern branch was weak running east on the 15N latitude line and pushing inland over South Baja offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours the trough off Central CA is to push southeast moving onshore over Southern CA late on Tues (3/11) producing weather there. And the newly developing trough in the Gulf is to fall southeast Wed-Thurs (3/13) moving inalnd over Monterey Bay producing weather there. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (3/14) the jet is to be split now just off Japan with both streams running parallel to each other across the North Pacific with the northern branch the stronger of the two tracking east roughly on the 43N latitude line with winds 130-140 kts in pockets with a new trough developing in the Gulf on Sat (3/15) and another midway to the dateline. Bith are to track east while developing into Mon (3/17) with the Gulf trough now poised off San Francisco and the other in the Western Gulf and both pinched but supporting some form of weak gale formation. On Tues (3/18) the California gale is to move onshore over Central CA while the Gulf trough tracks east supporting gale development there. Overall the jet is weak and split and not very supportive of gale formation.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (3/11) swell was hitting California originating from a gale that developed off Kamchatka tracking east over the far North Pacific (see Kamchatka Gale below). Swell from another gale that developed off Kamchatka tracking east Sat-Tues (3/11) is moving towards Hawaii and CA (see Another Kamchatka Gale below). And yet another swell is moving towards Hawaii from a gale previously off Japan (see Japan Gale below).

On Wed PM (3/12) remnants of the Japan Gale (see details below) are to track northeast and redevelop in the far Northwestern Gulf of Alaska with west winds 35-40 kts and seas 25 ft at 45N 176W aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/13) west winds to be 40 kts and seas 29 ft at 47N 172.75W aimed east. In the evening west winds to be 35 kts with seas 29 ft at 46.75N 161W aimed east. On Fri AM (3/14) the gale is to be fading well off British Columbia in the Northern Gulf with west winds 30-35 kts over a broad area and seas 24 ft at 47.75N 154.5W aimed east. Fetch dissipating in the evening with seas fading from 20-22 ft at 47N 152W aimed east. Something to monitor.

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Sun (3/16) building to 5.9 ft @ 15-16 secs late (9.0 ft). Swell Direction: 301 degrees

Kamchatka Gale
A broad system developed off Kamchatka (west of the North Dateline region) on Tues AM (3/4) with 35-40 kt west winds filling the Northwest Pacific with seas 29 ft centered at 47.5N 173.75E aimed east. In the evening west winds were 35-40 kts approaching the North Dateline with seas 27 ft over a broad area at 46.5N 173.75E aimed east. On Wed AM (3/5) west winds were falling southeast just west of the dateline at 35+ kts with 27 ft seas at 44.25N 176.5E aimed east. In the evening fetch was falling southeast while fading from 30+ kts with seas 23 ft at 41.75N 179.5W aimed east. Fetch rebuilt some to 30-35 kts while easing east Thurs AM (3/6) over the far Northwestern Gulf with seas 23 ft at 45N 171.5W aimed east. Fetch pushed east in the evening at 30+ kts still over a solid area with seas 23 ft at 44.5N 165.25W aimed east. Fetch reached the Northwest Gulf Fri AM (3/7) with northwest winds 30 kts and seas 22 ft at 44.25N 159.25W aimed southeast. Fetch was fading from 25 kts in the evening from the northwest with seas fading from 21 ft at 42.5N 157W aimed southeast. Fetch gone after that. Possible swell for Hawaii and the US West Coast by the weekend.

North CA: Swell fading on Tues (3/11) from 4.3 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (3/12) fading from 2.8 ft @ 11 secs (3.0 ft) with local windswell building on top. Swell Direction: 292 degrees

Another Kamchatka Gale
A small but more robust gale started developing off Kamchatka on Sat AM (3/8) producing west winds at 35-40 kts and seas 28 ft at 48N 177.5W aimed northeast. In the evening west winds built in coverage off Kamchatka at 35-40 kts with seas 26 ft at 49N 172E aimed east over a broad area. On Sun AM (3/9) 35-40 kt west winds were starting to migrate east and approaching the dateline with seas 27-28 ft at 50N 177E aimed east. In the evening west winds were fading from 35 kts over the dateline with seas 29-30 ft at 51N 178.25W aimed east. Mon AM (3/10) west winds were fading from 30-35 kts over the dateline with seas fading from 25-26 ft at 50N 172W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30+ kts from the west with seas 24 ft at 50N 165W aimed east. On Tues AM (3/11) fetch was fading from 30 kts while falling southeast with seas fading from 21 ft at 47N 156W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Wed (3/12) building to 3.7 ft @ 15 secs later (5.5 ft). Swell continues on Thurs (3/13) at 3.7 ft @ 14 secs early (5.0 ft). Swell fades on Fri (3/14) fading from 2.3 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 325 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (3/13) building to 8.9 ft @ 13 secs (11.0 ft) but with copious locally generated windswell intermixed. Swell continues on Fri (3/14) at 6.5 ft @ 13 secs (8.0 ft). Swell/windswell combo fades on Sat (3/15) from 7.2 ft @ 12 secs early (8.5 ft). Swell Direction: 285-305 degrees

Southern CA: Swell to mainly be from residual energy circulating off the California coast. Expect swell arrival on Thurs (3/13) building to 3.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.0 ft) but with copious locally generated windswell intermixed. Swell continues but fading on Fri (3/14) from 3.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (4.0 ft) early. Swell/windswell combo fades on Sat (3/15) from 2.9 ft @ 12-13 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Sun (3/16) fading from 2.0 ft @ 11-12 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 290-305 degrees

Japan Gale
Another gale developed just off Japan Mon AM (3/10) with 45 kt north winds and seas 23 ft at 38N 157E aimed south. In the evening northwest winds built to 50-55 kts with seas 34 ft at 39.5N 159.25E aimed southeast. On Tues AM (3/11) west and northwest winds were 40-45 kts with seas 34 ft at 36.75N 162.5E aimed southeast. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 35-40 kts while the gale lifts northeast approaching the dateline with seas 28-30 ft at 36.75N 170E aimed east. Fetch fading Wed AM (3/12) from the northwest at 35 kts as the gale lifts norhteast with seas 25 ft at 37N 177.5E aimed east and southeast at Hawaii. The gael to redevelp in the Northwestern Gulf beyond. Something to monitor.

Oahu: For planning purposes expect swell arrival on Fri (3/14) building to 3.1 ft @ 16 secs later (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell continues Sat (3/15) at 3.5 ft @ 14-15 (5.0 ft) Swell fading Sun (3/16) from 2.9 ft @ 12-13 secs early (3.5 ft). Dribbles fading on Mon (3/17) from 3.3 ft @ 11-12 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 310 moving to 320 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 8,500 ft Mon (3/10) dropping to 5,500 ft Tues (3/11) dropping to 3,500 ft Wed (3/12). Freeze level rising some to 4,500 ft Fri (3/14) and holding there or lower into Mon (3/17) then building to 9,500 ft on Wed (3/19).

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest is hitting or forecast.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Fri PM (3/14) a small gale is forecast developing in the Western Gulf with 35 kts northwest winds and seas 20 ft at 40N 164W aimed east and southeast. On Sat AM (3/15) northwest winds to be 35-40 kts over the Centrael Gulf with seas 27 ft at 40N 157.5N and southeast. In the evening northwest winds to be 35 kts well off North CA with seas 24 ft at 38.25N 150.75W aimed southeast. On Sun AM (3/16) fetch is to be fading from 30 kts off Central CA with seas fading from 22 ft at 37N 143.5W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

And possibly a small gale to develop off Japan Sat AM (3/15) with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 24 ft at 39.5N 158.5E aimed east. The gael to traack east in the afternoon with west winds 30-35 kts and seas 23 ft at 39N 165E aimed east. Fetch fading from 30 kts Sun AM (3/16) but building in coverage with seas 22 ft at 40N 173E aimed east. Fetch sweeping fast east in the evening at 30 kts with seas 19-21 ft at 41.5N 180W over the dateline. The gale to fade from there.

And yet a stronger gale is to possibly build just off the Kuril Islands Mon-Tues (3/18) with 45-50 kts west winds and seas 41 ft over a smallish area at 47.5N 171E aimed east.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

Modoki La Nina Fading
MJO Pattern Weak
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and expected to start fading beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/10) 5 day average winds were weak west over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate to strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were strong west over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/11) Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA (West Pacific). The forecast indicates east anomalies holding at strong status filling the KWGA through nearly the end of the model run on 3/25 (model run end on 3/26). West anomalies are forecast building over the Maritime Continent at moderate to strong strength starting 3/20 and holding beyond.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/11) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east from 173E to 175E. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador and reasonably solid in depth over all the width of the equatorial Pacific if not building in the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West Pacific and the far East Pacific. A pocket of cooler anomalies at -3 degs were present down 110 meters at 150W with -2 degs anomalies reaching east to 110W and weaker negative anomalies east to Ecuador filling the Central Pacific thermocline but markedly less concentrated than days past. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/4 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from 160E east to 80W at mostly -0.5 to -1.0 degs. The density and volume of cold water at depth was declining fast in the east and west and getting more generic. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building now pushing east to 160W (from 165W). The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/4) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were neutral from Ecuador to 120W then negative at -5 cms from 120W west to 178W with -15-20 cms in 2 pockets straddling the equator at 155W and losing coverage. -10 cms anomalies were from 145W to 165W. It appears the cool pool is fading and moving west. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (3/4) the cool pool was fading fast in intensity and coverage mainly between 140W to 165W at.-0.5 to -1.0 degs below normal. A La Nina pattern is in play with 6 pulses so far (the first showed in Feb). Warm water is limited west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer and building in coverage reaching east to 170W.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/10) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was filling the Central equatorial Pacific between 140W to 160E and less concentrated than days past. Warm anomalies were over the East Pacific from Ecuador to 140W and building in density and also filling the West Pacific. This looks like a Modoki La Nina (westward displaced) and fading at that.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/10): Temps were warming slightly over the entire Equatorial Pacific most concentrated from 100W to 155W (over the center of the Modoki cool pool). The trend was building warmer.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/11) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were fading some at +1.2807 after peaking at +1.5 on 3/4. Temps started warming steadily from -0.962 on 1/28. Previously temps held near -0.5 degs starting 11/30. They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/11) Today's temps were steady at +0.001 (Neutral) and started rising on 1/25 from -1.5 degs after peaking at -1.106 (1/18) and had been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were neutral at 0.0 the week of 3/5 and rising. Previously temps were -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27), -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.29 Feb, -0.74 Jan, -0.60 Dec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -1.18 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND), -0.81 (SON), -0.75 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.50 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.25 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.87 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.46 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.50 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec, -0.75 in Jan and -0.6 in Feb. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasted, including Feb 2025.
Forecast (3/11) - Temps to rise to -0.25 in March fading in April to -0.35, rising to -0.25 in July and holding at -0.2 degs in Oct. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. In all it looks like we're moving out of a weak La Nina to a neutral pattern.
IRI Consensus Plume: The February 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.501 (down from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 9th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to rise slightly from here to -0.387 degs in March (MAM). The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here forward and near 0.0 on JJA and the Statistic rising to -0.581 at the same time. In other words, we are past the peak of La Nina now. The Dynamic model has temps falling to -0.352 OND while the statistic model down to -0.626. The models are split but generally suggests a return to near neutral next Fall.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (3/11/25) the Daily Index was positive at +10.29 and weakly positive the last 18 days, negative the previous 9 days, positive the previous 28 days, negative the previous 18 days, but otherwise mostly positive before that.
The 30 day average was falling at +1.19 and has been generally falling the last 26 days, through still weakly in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was falling some at +5.11 and weakly in La Nina territory. .

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec and now -1.32 in Jan and -1.45 in Feb. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table