Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 11.6 secs from 210 degrees. Water temp 77.4 (Barbers Pt), 76.1 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.2 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp NA
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 20.0 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 19.4 secs from 315 degrees. Water temp 76.6 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 9.1 secs from 277 degrees. Wind NE 4-6 kts. Water temperature 57.0 degs, 54.0 (Harvest 071), 54.5 (Topanga 103), 56.3 (Long Beach 215), 57.0 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 57.4 (Del Mar 153), 58.1 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 7.0 ft @ 9.8 secs from 296 degrees. At W. Santa Barbara (46054) swell was 6.6 ft @ 10.5 secs from 301 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.0 ft @ 8.7 secs from 266 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 2.1 ft @ 9.2 secs from 283 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.6 ft @ 9.4 secs from 283 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.0 ft @ 8.9 secs from 281 degrees. Water temperature 58.1 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 10.6 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 7.6 ft @ 13.1 secs from 305 degrees. Wind northwest 12-16 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NW 15-17 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NW 2 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 52.0 degs (Pt Reyes 029), NA (San Francisco 46026), 53.1 (SF Bar 142), 51.8 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 53.1 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 53.8 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (3/21) in North and Central CA waves were head high weakly lined up breaking on the inner bar and clean with decent form but looking just like pure windswell. Protected breaks were chest high and closed out and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to shoulder high on the sets and lined up with decent form and clean but soft and weak. In Ventura County waves were maybe waist high and weakly lined up with no great form but occasional sections and clean. Central Orange County had sets at waist to chest high and somewhat lined up with occasionally decent form and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were thigh to maybe waist high on the sets and weakly lined up and real soft with no form and calm winds and clean conditions. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and lined up and soft and weak and formless but clean. Oahu's North Shore had sets at waist to near chest high at select breaks and lined up occasionally with good form and clean. The South Shore had sets at thigh high and weakly lined up and soft and clean. The East Shore was getting minimal east windswell at waist high and chopped with moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (3/21) California was getting locally generated windswell from the Gulf of Alaska. Hawaii was getting fading swell from a gale that developed off Japan moving towards the dateline Sat-Sun (3/15) but not making it there with up to 24 ft seas aimed east plus the faint first signs of swell from a gale that developed off North Japan Mon-Tues (3/18) with up to 38 ft seas aimed east then tracked to the North Dateline region with up to 35 ft seas with remnants forecast tracking over the Northwestern Gulf Wed-Thurs (3/20) with 26-27 ft seas aimed east. And another gale set up half way from Japan moving to the dateline Thurs-Fri (3/21) with up to 37 ft seas then is to track over the dateline while fading Sat-Sun (3/23) with seas dropping from 31 ft aimed east. After that the river runs dry with no swell producing weather systems forecast. Springtime is here in the North Pacific.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Friday (3/21) the jetstream was consolidated running east from Japan to just east of the dateline on the 35N latitude line with winds 180-190 kts forming a gentle trough on the dateline supporting gale formation. East of there the jet split just west of the dateline with most energy in the northern branch tracking east on the 45N latitude line pushing over Oregon with winds 150 kts forming a weak trough poised to move onshore there producing likely only weather. The southern branch was weak tracking over Southern Baja. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to fall further south by Sat (3/22) running east on the 33N latitude line from Japan to a point north of Hawaii then splitting there with a gentle trough over the dateline supporting gale formation there and that trough moving east into the Western Gulf on Sun (3/23) while weakening though possibly still supporting low pressure development. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (3/24) the Gulf trough is to push east slowly holding together into Fri (3/28) off North CA but winds only 130-140 kts feeding it offering limited support for low pressure or weak gale formation. Back to the west the jet is to start unraveling on Sun (3/23) and splitting over Japan pushing to the northeast tracking over the Kuril Islands and up into the Bering Sea on Fri (3/28) with most energy north of the Aleutians and over Russia offering no support for gale development. The beginning of the end looks possible.

Surface Analysis
On Friday (3/21) California was seeing only windswell generated from the Gulf of Alaska. Hawaii was getting residuals from a gale previously off Japan (see Another Japan Gale below). Swell is also starting to show in Hawaii from another gale that tracked northeast and east off Japan (see 1st Japan Gale below) and will eventually show in California. And yet another swell is queued for Hawaii and California from gale currently tracking over the dateline (see Second Japan Gales below). But after that no meaningful gale development is forecast.

1st Japan Gale
A stronger gale developed just off the Southern Kuril Islands Mon AM (3/18) with 45-50 kts west winds and seas 40-45 kt west winds and seas 34 ft at 42N 151E aimed east. In the evening the gale tracking northeast with west winds 40-45 kts and seas 37 ft over a smallish area at 43.5N 158E aimed east. On Tues AM (3/19) 40 kt west winds were lifting northeast half way to the North Dateline region with seas 36 ft at 46.5N 164.75E aimed east. In the evening northwest winds were 40 kts over the North Dateline region with seas 33 ft at 48.5N 173E aimed east. On Wed AM (3/19) west winds were 35 kts in a building and decent sized area over the North Dateline with seas 32 ft at 51N 178.75E aimed east. In the evening west winds to be fading from 30-35 kts but over a moderate sized area over the Northwestern Gulf with seas 27 ft at 51.75N 172.75W aimed east. Fetch was fading Thurs AM (3/20) from 30 kts in the Northwestern Gulf with seas 23 ft at 50N 164W aimed east. In the evening fetch was dissipating from 25 kts off Vancouver Island with seas fading from 20 ft at 49.5N 156W aimed east. Small swell possible for Hawaii and CA.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Fri (3/21) at sunset building to 2.5 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.5 ft). Swell holding Sat (3/22) at 2.9 ft @ 15-16 secs early (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (3/23) from 2.7 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.5 ft) and possibly being overridden by new swell. Swell Direction: 320 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (3/23) building to 3.1 ft @ 15-16 secs later (4.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (3/24) from 4.6 ft @ 14 secs early (6.0 ft). Residuals on Tues (3/25) fading from 4.1 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.0 ft) and possibly being overridden by new swell. Swell Direction: 302-305 degrees

Second Japan Gale
And on Wed PM (3/19) a new gale started building off Japan with northwest winds 40 kts and seas building from 23 ft at 36N 153E aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/20) northwest winds built to storm status at 50-55 kts over a small area with seas building from 29 ft at 41.5N 163.5E aimed east. In the evening the storm tracked east with 50 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 43N 172E approaching the dateline. On Fri AM (3/21) west winds to be 40 kts just starting to reach the dateline with seas 36 ft at 43N 177.75E aimed east. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 35 kts straddling the dateline with seas 33 ft at 42.25N 179.25W aimed east and southeast. On Sat AM (3/22) the gale is to be inching into the far Western Gulf with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas 29 ft at 42.5N 173.25W aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening from 30-35 kts with seas 26 ft at 38.75N 170W aimed east. Fetch fading fast Sun AM (3/23) 1000 nmiles north of Hawaii with northwest winds 25-30 kts and seas 23 ft at 38.5N 164.75W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Sun (3/23) building to 4.8 ft @ 18 secs later (8.5 ft). Swell fading some on Mon (3/24) from 7.3 ft @ 15-16 secs early (11.5 ft). Swell fading Tues (3/25) from 5.9 ft @ 13-14 secs (8.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (3/26) fading from 3.1 ft @ 11-12 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 320-325 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Tues (3/25) building to 3.3 ft @ 17 secs later (5.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (3/26) from 4.8 ft @ 15-16 secs early (7.5 ft). Possibly more energy to follow. Swell Direction: 299 degrees

Another Japan Gale
A small gale developed off Japan Sat AM (3/15) with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 24 ft at 42N 158.5E aimed east. The gale tracked east in the afternoon with west winds 30 kts and seas 24 ft at 40.5N 167.5E aimed east. Fetch was fading from 30 kts Sun AM (3/16) approaching the dateline with seas 21 ft at 43N 173E aimed east. Fetch was sweeping fast east in the evening at 25 kts with seas 19-20 ft at 44N 180W over the dateline. The gale to fade from there. Maybe some sideband swell to Hawaii at best.

Oahu: Dribbles on Fri (3/21) fading from 2.3 ft @ 11-12 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sat AM (3/22) west to northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA early and northwest winds 15-20 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts from Monterey Bay southward. Light rain for Cape Mendocino fading late afternoon.
Sun AM (3/23) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15+ kts for all of North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Mon AM (3/24) generic high pressure takes over with northwest winds 10 kts for North and Central CA early but 15 kts off the coast. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for Cape Mendocino but 10 kts for the rest of North CA and all of Central CA. No precip forecast.
Tues AM (3/25) northwest winds to be 10 kts early for North CA and 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds fade to 5 kts for North CA and calm for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Wed AM (3/26) a broad low pressure systems is to be off the US West Coast with south winds 5 kts for North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA but up to 15 south of Monterey Bay early. In the afternoon south winds to be 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino with the low poised off Washington and Oregon and southwest winds 5-10 kts for the rest of North Ca and northwest 15-20 kts south of Monterey Bay. No precip forecast.
Thurs AM (3/27) the low tracks north of Canada with southwest winds 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 15 kts for the rest of North and all of Central CA. In the afternoon west winds to be 10 kts for North CA and northwest 20-25 kts south of Monterey Bay. Light rain for Cape Mendocino through the day and evening. Light rain for the Sierra in the afternoon.
Fri AM (3/28) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA and northwest 20-25 kts south of Monterey Bay. light rain for Cape Mendocino early.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 2, 1, 2, and 0.5 inches with some Fri-Sat (3/22) and a little more on Sat (3/29).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 7,000 ft Fri-Sat (3/22) building Sun (3/23) to 12,000 ft holding through Wed (3/26) then falling to 10,000 ft on Thurs (3/27) and 8,000 ft on 3/30.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest is hitting or forecast.

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale south of New Zealand is pushing northeast (see Mini New Zealand Gale below).

Also another gale started developing Fri AM (3/21) south of New Zealand with 45-50 kt west winds and 55 kts south winds and seas 38 ft at 69.75S 172E aimed east and northeast. In the evening the gale is to track east with south to southwest winds 45-50 kts and seas 41 ft at 67.5S 179E aimed northeast. On Sat (3/22) southwest winds to be 45 kts with 39 ft seas at 64.25S 160W aimed east-northeast. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts aimed northeast with seas 33 ft at 62.75S 149W aimed northeast. The gael to dissipate after that. Something to monitor.

Mini New Zealand Gale
A small gale developed south-southeast of New Zealand Wed AM (3/19) with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 62S 173E aimed northeast. In the evening winds were 40-45 kts from the southwest and seas 31 ft at 61.75S 176.25W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (3/20) southwest winds were 30-40 kts over a broad area aimed well northeast with seas 27 ft at 56S 161W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch lifted northeast at 30-35 kts over a broad area with seas fading from 26 ft at 50S 151W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (3/21) southwest winds to fade from 30-35 kts aimed well northeast with seas 25 ft at 48S 147W aimed well northeast. Fetch and seas fading in the evening from 24-25 ft at 42S 144W aimed well northeast. Something to monitor.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast likely signaling the end of Winter for the North Pacific. Also note the Southern Hemi is forecast to start coming online.

Modoki La Nina Fading Out
MJO Pattern Weak
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and expected to start fading beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/20) 5 day average winds were modest to moderate east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate to strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East and Central Pacific and strong east over the West KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/21) Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA (West Pacific) and weak west anomalies were building at the entrance to the far West Pacific. The forecast indicates east anomalies holding at strong status filling the KWGA through nearly the end of the model run on 4/6 then collapsing while moving east. West anomalies are forecast building over the Maritime Continent at moderate to strong strength starting 3/23 and building in coverage while easing into the west KWGA on 3/26 and filling half the KWGA at the end of the model run.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (3/20) Currently a modest Active MJO pattern (wet air) was moving over the West KWGA. The statistic model depicts the the Active Phase (wet air) filling the West KWGA on day 5-15 at moderate status. The Dynamic model indicates effectively the same thing but with the Active Phase a bit stronger and broader.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (3/19) - The models depict the Active Phase was weak over the Central Maritime Continent. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the West Pacific and weak 2 weeks out through one member has it in the East Pacific after transiting the West Pacific at moderate strength. The dynamic model depicts it moving to the West Pacific 2 weeks out at weak status and stalled there.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (3/21) This model depicts a strong Active Phase (wet air) building over the East Maritime Continent and West KWGA at strong status and forecast filling it while tracking east through 4/10. After that a modest Inactive Phase (dry air) is to set up over the KWGA 4/15 filling it through the last day of the model run on 4/30 while tracking east.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/20) Today Inactive Phase contours and strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA. Inactive Phase contours are to dissipate or move east of the KWGA on 4/3 with east anomalies at moderate status filling the KWGA till 4/6, then dissipating. Active Phase contours are to be building east of the KWGA on 3/22 pushing into it 3/28 filling it on 4/10 and holding there till the end of the model run on 4/17 with west anomalies in control under those contours but limited to the West KWGA.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/21) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA with the Inactive Phase past its peak over the KWGA. East anomalies are to hold at moderate status through 4/5 with Inactive contours fading on 4/3. The Active Phase was moving into the west KWGA today with west anomalies forecast moving over the KWGA filling it on 4/6 with west anomalies holding completely filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 6/18 signaling the end of La Nina. Active Phase contours are to hold through 4/25. Beyond a weak Inactive MJO is forecast starting in the west 4/16 holding over the KWGA through 6/9 but with west anomalies fully in control of the Pacific. An Active Phase to follow in the west of 6/1 tracking through the KWGA through the end of the model run with west anomalies building to moderate if not strong status over the dateline. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28/24) with one contour and is to start easing east into the West Pacific 4/27 and reaching the dateline 5/27 and well east of there at the end of the model run. The high pressure bias developed over the dateline 11/16/24 with 1 contour line with a second 12/7 and a third developed 1/18. The third is to fade 4/15 and the second 4/29. The third is to be east of the KWGA on 5/10. This suggests a stronger and later developing La Nina pattern than is normal but also suggests La Nina is poised to dissipate by mid April.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/21) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded from 177E to 170E but was steady there now. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador and reasonably solid in depth over all the width of the equatorial Pacific if not building in the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West Pacific and the East Pacific. A pocket of cooler anomalies at -2 degs were present down 110 meters at 150W with -1 degs anomalies reaching east to 110W and blocked from more eastward progress by warmer water in the east and the cooler water was markedly less concentrated than days past. The hi-res GODAS animation (stale data) posted 3/9 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from 160E east to 80W at mostly -0.5 to -1.0 degs but with warm anomalies now present 110W reaching from depth up to the surface and expanding east and west there. The density and volume of cold water at depth was declining fast. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building pushing east to 160W (from 165W). The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/9 - Stale data) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were neutral from Ecuador to 130W and positive in a small pocket at 110W then negative at -5 to -10 cms from 130W west to 178W with 2 pockets to -15 cms straddling the equator at 155W. It appears the cool pool is fading and moving west. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (3/14) the cool pool was collapsing fast with it's remnants lingering only between 140W to 160W at.-0.5 to -1.0 degs below normal. A La Nina pattern is all but gone. Warmer waters were building in the west in coverage reaching east to 168W.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/20) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was expanding over the Central equatorial Pacific between 130W (previously 140W) to 160E and less concentrated between those points than days past through broader in coverage. Cool anomalies were streaming off the California coast falling southwest and feeding this pool outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system. Warm anomalies were over the East Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 125W and building in density and also filling the far West Pacific. This looks like a Modoki La Nina (westward displaced) and building slightly fueled by the current Inactive MJO.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/18): Temps were warming slightly over the East Equatorial Pacific and falling hard between 125W-145W, likely effects of a building Inactive MJO.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/21) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were fading some at +0.681 after peaking at +1.5 on 3/4. Temps started warming steadily from -0.962 on 1/28. Previously temps held near -0.5 degs starting 11/30. They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/21) Today's temps were fading at-0.399 fueled by a building Inactive MJO after peaking at +0.262 (slightly warm) on 3/14 and started rising on 1/25 from -1.5 degs after peaking at -1.106 (1/18) and had been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were positive at +0.3 week of 3/12. Previously temps were 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27).
Monthly Data is -0.29 Feb, -0.74 Jan, -0.60 Dec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -1.18 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND), -0.81 (SON), -0.75 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.50 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.25 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.87 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.46 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.50 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb. Then temps started fading down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec 2024, -0.75 in Jan 2025 and -0.6 in Feb. Temp unexpectedly rose to +0.075 degs in March. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasted, including Jan, Feb and March 2025.
Forecast (3/21) - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.075 in March but are to fade in April to -0.40, rising to 0.00 in July and rising gradually to +0.2 degs in Oct-Nov. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. In all it looks like we're moving out of a weak La Nina to a neutral pattern.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.196 (up from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 10th month below neutral since El Nino faded. Temps to rise slightly to -0.090 degs in June-July-Aug. The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here to -0.046 JJA then falling to -0.320 SON then rising some to -0.257 at the end of the model run on NDJ. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to -0.094 JJA dropping to -0.290 OND and up to -0.282 NDJ. In other words, we are well past the peak of La Nina now moving fast to ENSO neutral. The models generally suggests a return to near neutral biased slightly cool next Fall.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (3/21) the Daily Index was positive at +2.58 and weakly positive the last 27 days, negative the previous 9 days, positive the previous 28 days, negative the previous 18 days, but otherwise mostly positive before that.
The 30 day average was rising some at +5.81 and has been generally falling the last month, through still weakly in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was steady at +4.97 and weakly in La Nina territory. .

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec and now -1.32 in Jan and -1.45 in Feb. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.