Monday, April 3, 2017
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.5 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 12.1 secs from 312 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 17.2 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 16.7 secs from 253 degrees. Wind southeast 4-8 kts. Water temperature 60.6 degs. At Ventura swell was 2.6 ft @ 16.0 secs from 260 degrees. At Santa Monica swell was 2.5 ft @ 16.6 secs from 262 degrees. At Camp Pendleton swell was 3.5 ft @ 17.0 secs from 244 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma swell was 3.9 ft @ 17.0 secs from 273 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 15.4 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 8.5 ft @ 15.5 secs from 302 degrees. Wind northwest 23-29 kts at the buoy. Water temp 53.2 degs.
46006, 46059, New! Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (at the bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Monday (4/3) in North and Central CA Dateline swell was 10 ft on the face and clean with a little lump running through it but not too bad. Protected breaks were up to 2 ft overhead and clean but with more lump. At Santa Cruz surf was 2-3 ft overhead on the sets and clean and lined with some power. In Southern California up north dateline swell was hitting producing surf at 1-2 ft overhead and lined up and clean with some power. In North Orange Co surf was head high and lined up but heavily textured from southerly wind. In San Diego surf was head high with some bigger sets and textured from southwest winds and overpowering most beach breaks. Hawaii's North Shore was small with waves maybe waist high and clean and weak. The South Shore was thigh to waist high and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at shoulder to head high and chopped from easterly trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Monday (4/3) swell from a storm that tracked from Japan to the dateline Tues-Wed (3/29) with up to 39 ft seas aimed east then faded in the Western Gulf on Fri (3/31) with seas dropping from 30 ft was still hitting California and with some size. A weaker gale tracked through the Gulf Sun-Mon (4/3) producing up to 31 ft seas over a small area. Secondary fetch is to develop on Tues (4/4) producing 21 ft seas in the Eastern Gulf. And possibly a weaker one to develop behind that on the dateline Wed (4/5) with up to 21 ft seas fading while tracking east moving just off North Ca on Fri (4/7) with 23 ft seas impacting the coast directly. And maybe another gale to develop in the Northwestern Gulf on Sat-Sun (4/9) with up to 26 ft seas. So an productive swell pattern is taking hold for a while.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Monday AM (4/3) the jetstream was consolidated pushing strongly east-northeast off Japan with winds building to 180 kts over the dateline then continuing east before falling southeast down the Pacific Northwest coast and moving onshore over extreme North CA. There was a weak trough over Japan offering some support for gale development and another trough starting to build in the Western Gulf offering more potential. Over the next 72 hours the wind energy centered over and off Japan is to move east consolidating on the dateline Wed (4/5) with winds building to 190 kts with most energy falling into the developing trough in the Gulf offering good support for gale development and pushing up to the North CA coast on Thurs (4/6). Beyond 72 hours the trough off California is to redevelop while moving onshore through early Sun (4/9) continuing to support mostly weather along the coast. Back to the west the jet is to be weak and split over Japan the whole way to a point north of Hawaii. The two streams are to not have winds exceeding 110 kts and running closely parallel to each other. A bit of a trough is forecast to develop over the dateline in the northern branch and is to build into early Mon (4/9) being fed by 110-120 kts offering some support for gale development. On Mon (4/10) there's some suggestions the split might start healing over Japan, but wind speeds are to be weak offering no clear sign of a permanent fix. Spring is moving in and the swell pattern is to start to wane.
On Monday (4/3) swell from a storm previously over the dateline was fading along the US West Coast, but still sizeable and just starting to impact Southern CA (See Dateline Storm #2 below). And a new gale was developing in the Gulf of Alaska (see Gulf Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours theoretically one last small gale is to be behind these on the dateline Tues PM (4/4) with 35 kts northwest winds over a small area with seas building. By Wed AM (4/5) 35 kt northwest winds to build in coverage slightly pushing east with seas 21 ft at 38N 175W targeting Hawaii well but very small in coverage. In the evening winds to be fading from 30 kts from the west racing east with seas below 18 ft. The gale to race east Thurs AM (4/6) with 30 kt west winds and seas starting to rebuild. The gael is to reorganize off North CA on Thurs PM (4/6) with 35 kt west winds and seas building to 21 ft at 36N 139W. The gale to migrate just off North CA Fri AM (4/7) with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas 24 ft at 37N 132W. The gale is to hold off the North CA coast Fri PM with 25 kt west winds and seas 20 ft at 38N 125W. Possible raw larger swell to result targeting mainly North and Central CA.
Dateline Storm #2
A gale started developing off Japan on Mon PM (2/27) with 50 kt west winds starting to get traction on the oceans surface with seas building from 38 ft at 32N 153E over a tiny area. By Tues AM (3/28) winds were 45 kt from the west and seas 38 ft over a tiny area at 33N 161E. In the evening west winds continued at 40-45 kts approaching the dateline with 33 ft seas at 33N 170E. Fetch was rebuilding some at 45 kts on the dateline Wed AM (3/29) with seas 33 ft at 36N 179E. Fetch held at 45 kt in the evening with seas building to 39 ft at 38N 175W targeting Hawaii well but also the US West Coast. Fetch moved east Thurs AM (3/30) at 35-40 kts over a broad area with seas fading from 37 ft at 38N 166W aimed east targeting mainly California. Fetch faded in the evening from 35 kts in the Western Gulf still over a broad area aimed east with seas 34 ft at 43N 164W. The gale faded out from there Fri AM with winds dropping from 35 kts and seas 30 ft at 44N 157W aimed a the Pacific Northwest. Remnant energy is to continue northeast into Sat PM (4/1) with seas fading from 23 ft up at 53N 146W. Solid energy to target Hawaii with good energy from the US West Coast.
North California: Swell continues on Mon (4/3) at 8.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (12.5 ft) with copious windswell intermixed. Residuals on Tues (4/4) fading from 4.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (6.0 ft). Swell Direction: 286-290 degrees
Gulf Gale (Part 1 and 2)
A small gale developed in the Western Gulf on Sun AM (4/2) with 40-45 kt west winds and seas building from 21 ft at 43N 164W. In the evening winds built to 45 kts over a small area with 32 ft seas building at 45N 159W. The gale faded while tracking east Mon AM (4/3) with winds 40 kts from the west over a small area in the Northern Gulf with seas 29 ft at 46N 153W. The gale is to fade from there. Small swell possible mainly for Central CA up into the Pacific Northwest.
On Mon PM (4/3) secondary fetch is to build in the Gulf producing northwest winds at 35-40 kts with seas on the increase. On Tues AM (4/4) the fetch is to build in coverage at 30-35 kts over a broad area filling the Gulf targeting Oregon down into California with seas 19 ft and building. In the evening winds to fade in coverage from 30 kts with 22 ft seas at 47N 140W. The fetch is to be fading and lifting north Wed AM (4/5) with 18-20 ft seas fading at 48N 138W. Swell from this system to combine and overlap with swell from the previous one.
North CA: Swell to arrive later on Wed (4/5) building to 5 ft @ 15 secs (7.5 ft). Swell continues on Thurs (4/6) at 7.3 ft @ 13 secs (9.0 ft) holding through the day. Swell fades on Fri (4/7) from 4.3 ft @ 12 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 298 degrees migrating to 288 degrees.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Monday (4/3) high pressure was ridging into the coast generating northwest winds at 20-25 kts from San Francisco northward and 20 kts down to Pt Conception later. Tuesday (4/4) high pressure is to start fading while low pressure builds in the Gulf pushing east with northwest winds fading from 15 kts for all of North and Central CA and down to 10 kts or less mid-day as a front moves towards the Pacific Northwest. Wednesday the front hits Cape Mendocino and dissolves off the North CA coast with south winds for Cape Mendocino 15 kts but light south down to Pt Reyes and calm south of there. Light rain for Cape Mendocino well after after sunset. Thursday another low starts building off the CA coast with south winds 10-15 kts building south to Morro Bay later. Light rain making it south to Pt Reyes later afternoon. Friday a major weather change supposedly is to set up with a new gale building off North CA and south winds 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA with solid rain for the coast for that region. Snow for higher elevations of the Sierra developing during the day and snow levels falling by evening down to the Southern Sierra. Saturday (4/8) the front is to hold with west winds 20+ kts early turning northwest 15 kts later. rain for the entire state down to San Diego mainly early fading late afternoon. Solid snow for the Sierra fading some later with another gale queuing up in the Eastern Gulf. Sunday (3/9) weak high pressure is to be in control with northwest winds 10-15 kts and up to 20 kts for Pt Conception building into Southern CA. Snow fading for the Sierra by sunrise but the next front is to be reaching Cape Mendocino late evening. Snow developing for the Sierra down to Yosemite. On Monday (3/10) the front is to push down the coast with high pressure in control just offshore with northwest winds 15-20 kts early building to 25+ kts later. Light rain pushing south to Pt Conception late afternoon and snow for the entire Sierra. Total accumulations for Tahoe on the crest 40-45 inches and 38 inches for Mammoth.
A gale is forecast tracking east-southeast under New Zealand on Fri (4/7) with winds 45 kts from the west and seas building to 34 ft at 60S 180S but most energy tracking towards Antarctica. 45 kt southwest winds to continue in the evening with 37 ft seas at 62S 172W aimed decently to the northeast. Sat AM (4/8) southwest winds to continue at 40 kts with seas fading from 34 ft at 60S 160W. Fetch is to dissipate from 40 kts in the evening with seas 30 ft at 63S 150W. Maybe some swell to result.
Central Pacific Gale
A gale developed in the West South Pacific Thurs PM (3/30) with 40 kt southwest winds and seas building 35 ft at 62S 175W aimed east. The gale tracked east Fri AM (3/31) to the Central South Pacific with 45 kt southwest winds lifting northeast and seas 34 ft over a small area at 60S 166W. In the evening 40 kt southwest winds lifted northeast with seas 33 ft at 58S 157W. Sat AM (4/1) fetch was fading from 35 kts from the south with seas fading from 30 ft at 55S 150W. In the evening winds built to 40 kts from the south with 29 ft seas at 53S 147W aimed north. South fetch faded Sun AM (4/2) from 35 kt and seas 27 ft at 50S 143W. 35 kt south winds continued fading in coverage in the evening with seas 25 ft at 50S 140W. A nice little pulse of southerly swell is possible for Tahiti, Hawaii and up into the US West Coast. Something to monitor.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (4/5) with swell building to 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell builds on Thurs (4/6) to 2.4 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft). Fri (4/7) swell fades from 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell builds slightly on Sat (4/8) to 2.0 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell dissipates from there. Swell Direction: 200 degrees early moving to 190 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a gale is to develop over the dateline on Sat AM (3/8) at 35 kts with seas starting to build. Fetch is to build to 45 kts in the evening over a small area with seas to 24 ft at 44N 172W. On Sun AM (3/9) the gale is to track east with winds fading to 35-40 kts from the west with seas 27 ft at 44N 162W. The gale is to lift northeast in the evening and fade with west winds 30 kts and seas dropping from 21 ft at 46N 153W. Maybe some swell to result.
No swell producing fetch of interest is forecast
More details to follow...
Inactive MJO Dying
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was fading with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. Still, the atmosphere is in a La Nina configuration.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Sun (4/2) east winds were over the entire equatorial Pacific and the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were light westerly over the equatorial East Pacific and dead neutral over the KWGA. La Nina's remnants in the atmosphere were finally be fading.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): East anomalies are finally gone over the Kelvin Wave Generation Area with neutral anomalies in play except east at the eastern most reaches of it. The forecast suggests west anomalies are to build over the bulk of the KWGA with east anomalies holding at 180-170W. This suggests the Inactive Phase of the MJO and La Nina are to be loosing control of the KWGA.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: As of 4/2 a neutral MJO pattern was in effect over the KWGA. The statistic model projects a very weak Inactive Pattern rebuilding 4 days out and holding to the end of the forecast period 2 weeks out. The dynamic model depicts the neutral pattern holding till day 8, then turning weakly Active out to 15 days,. That is good news. All this suggest the Inactive Phase of the MJO constructively integrating with the remains of La Nina might finally be fading out.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (4/3) The ECMF model indicates the Active Phase of the MJO was indiscernible over the Maritime Continent but is now forecast to start making some eastern headway, weakly in the West Pacific 2 weeks out. The GEFS model depicts the same progression weakly moving into the West Pacific. This model runs about a week ahead of what occurs down at the surface.
40 day Upper Level Model: (4/3) This model depicts a weak Active Pattern was over the dateline and is to ease east into Central America 4/18. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow in the West 4/18 drifting east to Central America 5/8. A weak Active pattern to follow in the West Pacific 5/3. This model runs about 2 weeks ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (4/3) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was over the Western KWGA today but with weak east anomalies still in control over the dateline. The core of the Active Phase was still centered over the Maritime continent reaching east to the dateline. Beyond the Active Phase is to stall on the dateline through 4/10 with east anomalies still in control of the KWGA (attributable to La Nina) then finally giving way to a neutral wind trend. The Active Phase is to finally push east 4/13 with west anomalies developing by 4/14 and building solid from there as the Active Phase of the MJO builds and moves east centered over the dateline 4/18 and not fading for the foreseeable future with nary a hint of east anomalies. 3/28 has been the anchor date for the final demise of east anomalies (and officially it was met, though a short respite of east anomalies are forecast into 4/10). La Nina is to be gone per the low pass filter on 5/6 (previously 5/6 5/2 and 4/28 before that) with El Nino taking hold 5/21, (previously 5/16, 5/22 and before that 5/8). Projected west anomalies are dependent upon the evolution of El Nino and the date of that development had been continuously slipping but appears to be coming more certain. Confidence still low on this forecast for now. We'll see what happens.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/3) Actual temperatures remain stratified with warm water in the West Pacific at 30 degs C retrograding west and no longer on the chart. The 28 deg isotherm line is steady at 175E and steep still suggesting a hard break between warm water in the west and cool water in the east at depth. But 26 deg anomalies continue building to the east reaching to the Galapagos with 24 degs anomalies over a shallow pool down 40 meters (75 meters at 140W) and holding. Anomaly wise warm anomalies at +1 degs rule the entire upper reaches of the equatorial East Pacific from 75 meters upward reaching west to 160W with neutral anomalies west of there. A pocket of -2 degs anomalies is building while easing west at depth between 110-170W down 125 meters. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/29 depicts that warm water has built in the east at +2-3 degs and trying to ease west to about 130W. Otherwise warm water is confined to the West Pacific at +1-2 degs reaching east to 170W. La Nina has lost control of the ocean at depth with something that almost resembles a warm pattern taking shape. The concern is there is not much warm water in the far West Pacific to feed any sort of a progressive Kelvin Wave pattern, but more warm waters appears to be building in the west.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/29) A previous pool of positive anomalies at 0-+5 cms on the equator from Ecuador west to 130W forming one continuous thin stream broke up 2 weeks ago, but has now rebuilt, with 5+ cm anomalies along the coast of Peru and Ecuador. La Nina is gone in the East Pacific with a neutral to warm trend building in.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (4/2) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate warm water dominating the region extending from Northern Chile over Peru and north to Ecuador then extending west over the Galapagos with the warmest anomalies reaching west to 110W at 2+ degs but with solid warm anomalies out to 160W but mainly south of the equator. The warm waters are building a little today along Peru. Some cool waters continue to hold along the immediate coast of South Peru and north Chile but shrinking in coverage. Looking at the large picture, warming in the southern hemi extend east thousands of miles off the coast as far south as 15S. La Nina is gone and it looks like an El Nino like pattern is returning, though that seems hard to believe given the limited volume of subsurface warm water in the West equatorial Pacific.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/1): A neutral trend is along Peru and Ecuador, but it really cant get much warmer there, so this is understandable. A warming trend extends west from the Galapagos out to the dateline. A warming trend is also present in the Northern Hemi strongly from well off California out over Hawaii and reaching to the Philippines and also off Mexico southwest to a point south of Hawaii.
Hi-res Overview: (3/30) There is no sign of La Nina east of 160W. A solid warm regime holds from Ecuador west to 120W and less energetic out to 160W. Remnants of La Nina continue from 160W-160E. It almost looks like El Nino is trying to develop and making headway into the Nino3.4 region.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/3) Today's temps were stable at +1.487, down from the peak of +3.0 degs on 3/18.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (4/3) temps were falling slightly at +0.273 degs, not remarkable like Nino1.2 is.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (4/3) The forecast is down slightly with temps projected at +0.55 degs April 1 building to +0.85 degs later in April holding at 0.8 degs in July then building through the summer rising to +1.0 degs in late Sept and to +1.35 degs in Nov suggesting a return of El Nino. La Nina is over and a return to at least normal temps is expected in Spring. The change in the atmosphere will be slower. And a turn to weak El Nino conditions is possible late summer into Fall. Still, there is no source for greater warming with the warm pool in the far West Pacific pretty weak.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-March Plume just updated today (3/16) and depicts temps are warming and are now at +0.3 degs. A slow increase in temps is forecast thereafter to +0.8 degs in July holding into the Fall. This is +0.3 degs warmer than the Feb forecast and +0.6 degs warmer than the January forecast and suggests La Nina is over and a warmer regime is setting up. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Decoupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (4/3): The daily index was falling at -14.64 and has been running negative the last 5 days. The 30 day average was falling some at +2.69. The 90 day average was falling at -0.59 or effectively neutral. This suggests a return to at least a neutral ENSO conditions has taken hold.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (4/3) Today's value was falling slightly at -0.93, still pretty negative given the other oceanic signals. A peak low was reached on 11/2 at -1.94 the deepest it had been in this La Nina event. This measures atmospheric response, not oceanic. The atmosphere lags behind changes in the ocean. The expectation is this index will rise to 0.0 three months after the oceanic change occurred (Oceanic change occurred approx Jan 20 2017). So on March 20 the index should be neutral. That seems like a reach.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO continues positive, though much weaker lately (as expected with La Nina setting in).
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.21, Feb = +0.08. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table