Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 13.3 secs from 195 degrees. Water temp 77.4 (Barbers Pt), 77.0 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.2 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 6.2 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 4.5 ft @ 8.6 secs from 43 degrees. Water temp 76.3 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 8.6 secs from 34 degrees. Water temp 77.0 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 14.0 secs from 246 degrees. Wind NE 4-6 kts. Water temperature 56.8 degs, 51.1 (Harvest 071), 59.4 (Topanga 103), 58.6 (Long Beach 215), 60.4 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 60.3 (Del Mar 153), 60.8 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 7.3 ft @ 10.4 secs from 308 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.7 ft @ 10.3 secs from 267 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.3 ft @ 14.9 secs from 198degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 3.0 ft @ 14.7 secs from 196 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 3.3 ft @ 14.9 secs from 196 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.8 ft @ 14.7 secs from 192 degrees. Water temperature 60.4 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 9.8 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 7.0 ft @ 9.8 secs from 315 degrees. Wind southeast 8-12 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NNE 5-6 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and SSE 2 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 50.2 degs (Pt Reyes 029), NA (San Francisco 46026), 56.8 (SF Bar 142), 51.8 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 51.8 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 55.4 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (4/13) in North and Central CA waves were head high and weakly lined up and sectioned and a bit warbled though local wind was light. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and weakly lined up and mushed and warbled but rideable early. At Santa Cruz surf was head high on the sets and lined up but a bit sectioned from intermixed windswell and clean with decent form. In Ventura County waves were chest high on the sets and lined up but pretty warbled and irregular though local wind was light. Central Orange County had sets at head high and lined up and clean but with some texture on it from light southerly winds. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at 1 ft overhead and lined up with good form but pretty warbled from south winds. North San Diego had sets at head high and lined up with some power but a bit closed out and slightly warbled. Oahu's North Shore had sets at waist to thigh to waist high and lined up but a bit warbled from northeasterly winds. The South Shore had sets at knee high and weak and clean. The East Shore was getting trade winds generated east windswell at chest high and chopped from brisk northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (4/13) swell from the Southeast Pacific was hitting California. A small gale developed on the dateline Fri-Sat (4/12) with seas to 25 ft aimed southeast targeting Hawaii. Small swell is en route there. Another small system is forecast in the Northern Gulf Sun-Mon (4/14) with 26 ft seas aimed east. And yet another in the Northwestern Gulf Tues-Wed (4/18) with 28 ft seas aimed southeast. After that the North Pacific is forecast shutting down. Down south a broad gale formed in the Southeast Pacific Wed-Sat (4/5) producing 31 ft seas aimed northeast. That swell is hitting CA now. Another is developing southeast of New Zealand Sun-Tues (4/15) producing up to 40 ft seas over a small area aimed east-northeast. Small swell is possible from it. A broader system is forecast Fri-Sat (3/19) with up to 40 ft seas traversing the South Pacific offering sideband hope. Summer is starting to get some traction while Winter lingers.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (4/13) the jetstream was weakly consolidate tracking east-northeast off Japan on the 40N latitude line forming a weak trough just west of the dateline and stronger one trying to organize in the Central Gulf being fed by 150 kts winds trying to support gale formation then dissolving while lifting northeast from there. Over the next 72 hours the Gulf trough continuing to circulate while fading some and pushing east then redeveloping off Central CA on Tues (4/15) almost looking like a backdoor trough and almost over Pt Conception on Thurs (4/17) moving inland in the evening there. Maybe some weather at best. is to fade some and move inland over Oregon on early Sat (4/12) producing only weather there. The dateline trough is to deepen and almost start pinching off on Tues (4/15) a bit north of Hawaii then dissolving while lifting north. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to remain consolidated tracking east off Japan then splitting near 160W with most energy in the northern branch running north up into Alaska and no troughs of interest forecast. Wind energy in the jet is to steadily drop and by Sat (4/19) only a few small pockets of 110 kt winds to remain offering nothing. No support for gale formation is indicated. Winter is over.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (4/13) small swell from a gale previously on the dateline is tracking towards Hawaii (see Dateline Gale below). And perhaps another is to develop in the Northwestern Gulf (see below).

Over the next 72 hours another gale is forecast developing in the Northwestern Gulf on Tues AM (3/15) producing north winds at 35-40 kts and seas building from 19-20 ft at 40N 175W targeting Hawaii well. In the evening north winds to be 40 kts with seas 28 ft at 43.5N 169.5W aimed south. On Wed AM (3/16) fetch to hold stationary from the northwest at 40-45 kts just south of the Eastern Aleutians with seas 26 ft at 44N 164.25W aimed southeast. in the evening fetch is to be fading from 35 kts with seas 26 ft at 46N 167W aimed southeast.The gale to dissipate after that. Something to monitor.

Dateline Gale
On Fri AM (4/11) a small gale developed on the dateline producing northwest winds at 35 kts and seas building from 19 ft at 40.75N 173E aimed southeast. In the evening it fell southeast with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas 25 ft at 42.5N 179.25W aimed southeast. On Sat AM (4/12) fetch was fading out from 25-30 kts with seas fading from 22 ft at 40.5N 173.25W aimed southeast. The gale dissipated after that. Something to monitor for Hawaii.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Tues (3/15) building to 3.8 ft @ 13 secs late (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed AM (3/16) from 3.5 ft @ 11 secs (3.5-4.0 ft).

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Mon AM (4/14) northwest winds fade from 15-20 kts off Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts nearshore for all of North CA and 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for Cape Mendocino (but 20 kts off the coast) and 5 kts for the rest of North CA and all of Central CA of not south at 5 kts (eddy flow). No meaningful windswell expected. No precip forecast.
Tues AM (4/15) northwest winds to build to 20-25 kts off Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts nearshore for all of North Ca and calm to south at 5 kts for Central CA early. No change in the afternoon but with south winds building to 10 kts for Central CA. Windswell building some. No precip forecast.
Wed AM (4/16) northwest winds to be 25-30 kts off Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts for most of North CA and south 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5-10 kts for the rest of North CA and south 5-10 kts for Central CA. Windswell building some. Light showers for Central CA up to Bodega Bay through the day. No precip forecast.
Thurs AM (4/17) northwest winds to be 25 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 15-20 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for most of North CA and northwest 10-15 kts for Central CA. Windswell holding. Snow showers for the Sierra from a backdoor cold front in the evening.
Fri AM (4/18) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts off the coast North CA and northwest 10 kts nearshore and northwest 10-15 kts south of Monterey Bay early. No change in the afternoon. Windswell holding. Light rain for Central and Southern CA through the day and evening. Snow for the Central Sierra.
Sat AM (4/19) northwest winds to be 20+ kts for North CA early and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds build to 25-30 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15-20 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 10-15 kts for Central CA. Windswell building some. No precip forecast.
Sun AM (4/20) northwest winds to be 25 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts for the rest of North and all of Central CA. No change in the afternoon. Windswell holding.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 1, 2, 7, and 15inches all on Wed-Fri (4/18).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 10,500 ft through 4/16 falling to 5.500 ft 4/17-18 then building to 10,000 ft late on 4/19 and holding beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell from a broader gale previously in the Southeast Pacific was hitting California (see Southeast Pacific Gale below)

Over the next 72 hours a gale was developing south of New Zealand Sun AM (4/13) tracking east with 50-55 kts southwest winds and seas 36 ft at 59S 176.75E aimed east-northeast. In the evening southwest winds are to be 50 kts tracking east with seas 39 ft at 59.25S 171.5W aimed northeast. Fetch is to fade some on Mon AM (4/14) at 45 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 38 ft at 57.25S 162.25W aimed east-northeast. In the evening west-southwest fetch is to fade from 35 kts over decent sized area with seas fading from 34 ft at 55.75S 151.25W aimed east-northeast. Something to monitor.

A secondary gale to form directly behind Tues PM (3/15) producing southwest winds at 35-45 kts over a small area with seas 26-27 ft at 49S 160W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (4/16) fetch is to be fading from 35 kts with seas fading from 26 ft at 46S 151W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Southeast Pacific Gale
A broad gale started developing in the Southeast Pacific on Wed PM (4/2) producing southwest winds at 45 kts and seas 29 ft at 62S 153.25W aimed well northeast. On Thurs AM (4/2) southwest winds were lifting well north at 40 kts over a solid area with seas building from 30 ft at 54.75S 144.75W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 35-40 kts over a large area with seas 29 ft at 52S 136.25S aimed northeast. Fetch held Fri AM (3/4) at 35-40 kts from the southwest with seas 31 ft at 51S 128.25W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds faded from 30-40 kts on the edge of the Southern CA swell window with seas 34 ft at 48S 120.75W aimed northeast. Fetch moved east of the Southern CA swell window on Sat AM (4/5) with south winds 30 kts and seas fading from 27 ft at 44.25S 114.75W targeting Peru and Chile well. Swell is radiating northeast.

Southern CA: Swell fading some Sun (4/13) from 2.6 ft @ 15 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Residuals Mon (4/14) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

North CA: Swell fading some Sun (4/13) from 2.8 ft @ 15 secs early (4.0 ft). Residuals Mon (4/14) from 2.1 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing Wed PM (4/16) in the deep Southwest Pacific with 50 kts southwest winds and seas 37 ft at 66.75S 175.75W aimed east-northeast. On Thurs AM (4/17) west winds to be 45 kts with seas 39 ft at 66S 161.25W aimed east. In the evening west winds to be fading from 35 kts with seas fading from 34 ft at 65S 149W aimed east-northeast.

Perhaps another gale is to develop in the Deep South Central Pacific Sat AM (4/19) with 40-45 kts southwest winds and seas 34 ft at 67.25S 158W aimed east-northeast. The gale is to track east-northeast in the evening with 40 kts southwest winds and seas 32 ft at 63S 135W aimed east-northeast. Something to monitor.

Modoki La Nina Collapsing
Active MJO Poised To Kill It
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and expected to start fading beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/12) 5 day average winds were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest west over the East Pacific and weak west over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/13) Today modest to moderate east anomalies were filling most of the KWGA with weak west anomalies over the far West KWGA. The forecast indicates east anomalies weakening while holding over the KWGA till 4/19 then they start fading while moving east to the East KWGA while weak to modest west anomalies start building east over the KWGA as early as 4/15-4/18 the more assertively moving into the West KWGA 4/20 and filling the Western KWGA by the end of the model run on 4/29 with east anomalies all but gone in the East KWGA. La Nina is to be fading.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (4/12) Currently a neutral MJO over filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts a neutral MJO continuing to fill the KWGA on day 5 building to weak Active status (wet air) on days 10 and 15 of the model over the KWGA. The Dynamic model indicates the same thing but with the Active Phase (wet air) stronger on day 10-15 at moderate status.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (4/13) - The models depict the Active Phase was very weak over the Maritime Continent. The statistic model has it moving from the West Pacific to the East Pacific over the next 2 weeks and very weak. The dynamic model depicts it moving better to the West Pacific at weak status 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/13) This model depicts a strong Active Phase (wet air) was between the East Maritime Continent and the West KWGA and forecast filling the KWGA while tracking east through 4/28. After that a moderate Inactive Phase (dry air) is to set up over the KWGA 5/8 filling it through the last day of the model run on 5/23 while tracking east.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/12) Today modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA. East anomalies are forecast holding for the next 5 days then moving fast east starting 4/17 moving to 160E and point east of there while west anomalies push east into the West KWGA on 4/18 tracking half way across the KWGA on 4/20 and reaching 165E filling 3/4ths of the KWGA, but then retrograding some 4/30 only filling 50% of it but holding steady there while building in strength to moderate status through the end of the model run on 5/10. No Active or Inactive contours are forecast. East anomalies are to be fading limited to points east of 150E. at the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/13) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today west anomalies were in the far West KWGA but modest east anomalies filling most of the KWGA with no Active or Inactive contours indicted. West anomalies are to start pushing east into the KWGA 4/15 and filling it on 4/21 with east anomalies gone. The Active Phase is to set up 4/21 with west anomalies building quickly across all the KWGA filling it and in control as the Active Phase and it's contours fade on 5/31. A weak Inactive MJO is forecast starting in the west 5/4 holding over the KWGA through 6/24 but with west anomalies fully in control of KWGA. An Active Phase to follow in the west on 6/16 tracking over the KWGA through the end of the model run with west anomalies building to moderate status over the dateline. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (started 4/28/24) with one contour and is to start easing east into the West Pacific 5/10 and reaching the dateline at the end of the model run. The high pressure bias was over the dateline with 3 contours. The third is to fade 4/29 and the second 5/18. The third is to be east of the KWGA on 6/5. This suggests La Nina is poised to start dissipate in the atmosphere by late-April.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/13) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was back! at 166Egone. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded from 177E to 170E but was now solid moving east to 179W. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador and reasonably solid in depth over all the width of the equatorial Pacific if not building in density in the east with a 28 deg contour now appearing there. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West Pacific and +3 degs in the East Pacific. A pocket of cooler anomalies at -2 degs were spread between 162W to 110W at -2 degs 125 meters down. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/8 indicates cool anomalies were filling the the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) from 155E east to 125W but only -0.5 to -1.0 degs and getting warmer. Warm anomalies were building at depth in the east. Warm anomalies were also filling the area west of the dateline and building while steady at 165W. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/8) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were 0-5 cms above normal from Ecuador to 120W and negative at -5 to -10 cms from 120W west to 170W with 2 pockets to 15 to 20 cms straddling the equator at 155W. It appears the cool pool is fading and moving west. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (4/8) the cool pool was collapsing if not gone with one last remnant between 150W- 160W at.-0.5 degs below normal. Weak warm anomalies were between Ecuador to 145W. A La Nina pattern is all but gone. Much warmer waters were building in the west in coverage reaching east to 175W and near +2 degs.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/7) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was collapsing over the West Equatorial Pacific west of 160W. The only real cool pool was holding from 130W to 160W. Cool anomalies were streaming off the California coast falling southwest and feeding this pool outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system. Warm anomalies were over the East Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 125W and building in density. This looks like a Modoki La Nina (westward displaced) and fading with a very El Nino like pattern setting up off Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/12): Temps were cooling in a thin stream on the equator from Ecuador to 95W and that area was shrinking. Moderate warming was on the equator from 105W and points west of there to the dateline.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/13) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were steady at +1.038 after falling to +0.409 (3/23) after peaking at +1.5 on 3/4. Temps started warming steadily from -0.962 on 1/28. Previously temps held near -0.5 degs starting 11/30. They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/13) Today's temps were steady at -0.303 after fading to -0.399 (3/21) fueled by a building Inactive MJO, and that after after peaking at +0.262 (slightly warm) on 3/14 and started rising on 1/25 from -1.5 degs after peaking at -1.106 (1/18) and had been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were negative at -0.1 week of 4/2. Previously temps were +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27).
Monthly Data is -0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan, -0.60 Dec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.90 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND), -0.81 (SON), -0.75 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.50 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.25 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.87 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.46 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.50 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb. Then temps started fading down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec 2024, -0.75 in Jan 2025 and -0.6 in Feb. Temp unexpectedly rose to +0.075 degs in March. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasted, including Jan, Feb and March 2025.
Forecast (4/13) - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded to -0.1 in April, far less that the -0.40 forecast). Temps to rise to +0.10 in July and rising gradually to +0.30 degs in Dec and +0.5 in Jan 2026. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. In all it looks like we're moving out of a weak La Nina to a neutral pattern.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.196 (up from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 10th month below neutral since El Nino faded. Temps to rise slightly to -0.090 degs in June-July-Aug. The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here to -0.046 JJA then falling to -0.320 SON then rising some to -0.257 at the end of the model run on NDJ. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to -0.094 JJA dropping to -0.290 OND and up to -0.282 NDJ. In other words, we are well past the peak of La Nina now moving fast to ENSO neutral. The models generally suggests a return to near neutral biased slightly cool next Fall.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (4/12) the Daily Index was positive at 17.30 and rising but otherwise steadily positive the past month.
The 30 day average was rising at +10.65 and has been generally steady the last month, through still weakly in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was rising some at +8.13 and weakly in La Nina territory.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and now -1.32 in Jan 2025, -1.45 in Feb and -1.12 in March. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.