Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 15.2 secs from 185 degrees. Water temp 77.9 (Barbers Pt), 77.7 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.7 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 7.7 secs from 63 degrees. Water temp 76.8 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 8.5 secs from 38 degrees. Water temp 77.2 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 13.8 secs from 285 degrees. Wind W 2 kts. Water temperature 56.7 degs, 55.8 (Harvest 071), 58.3 (Topanga 103), 59.0 (Long Beach 215), 60.8 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 59.9 (Del Mar 153), 61.0 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.5 ft @ 13.5 secs from 284 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.2 ft @ 13.5 secs from 275 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.6 secs from 216 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.4 secs from 197 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.7 ft @ 13.1 secs from 197 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.1 ft @ 14.5 secs from 229 degrees. Water temperature 60.8 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 10.7 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 7.5 ft @ 12.5 secs from 303 degrees. Wind northeast 2-6 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NW 12-13 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NA (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 51.4 degs (Pt Reyes 029), NA (San Francisco 46026), 53.6 (SF Bar 142), 54.1 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 54.5 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 56.3 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (4/17) in North and Central CA waves were 1-2 ft overhead and line dup and clean with decent form but soft. Protected breaks were chest to maybe head high and lined up and a bit closed out and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high on the sets and somewhat lined up and clean but pretty weak. In Ventura County waves were thigh to waist high on the sets and lined up with decent form when they came and clean but pretty soft. Central Orange County had sets at waist to maybe chest high on the peaks and lined up of not closed out but a bit warbled from southerly wind early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at chest high on the peak and lined up when the sets came with good form and real clean but soft. North San Diego had sets at waist to chest high and lined up with decent form and clean. Oahu's North Shore was near flat and clean. The South Shore had sets at thigh high and weak and clean. The East Shore was getting trade wind generated east windswell at thigh high and almost clean with very light southeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (4/17) minimal background southern hemi swell was hitting California and now swell was hitting Hawaii. A small gael developed in the Northwestern Gulf Wed (4/18) with 20 ft seas aimed southeast at Hawaii. Some tiny swell to result on Fri (4/18). After that the North Pacific goes to sleep for the Summer. Down south a gale developed southeast of New Zealand Sun-Tues (4/15) producing up to 39 ft seas over a small area aimed east-northeast. Small swell is radiating northeast for HI and CA. Secondary energy from it developed Tues (4/15) over the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific producing with 28-30 ft seas aimed northeast. A broader system was developing in the deep Central Pacific Thurs-Fri (4/18) with 35 ft seas aimed mostly due east. Another is forecast developing south of New Zealand and traversing the South Pacific while lifting east-northeast Fri-Sun (3/20) with up to 37 ft seas initially then 33 ft later offering hope for some better southern hemi swell beyond. The transition to Summer is underway.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday (4/17) mini swell from a weak gale previously in the Northwestern Gulf was tracking towards Hawaii (see Northwest Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Northwest Gulf Gale
A gale started developing while moving from the dateline to the Northwestern Gulf on Mon PM (3/14) producing north winds at 30 kts trying to get some traction. On Tues AM (3/15) it was in the Northwestern Gulf producing north winds at 30-35 kts with seas 19 ft at 40N 175W targeting Hawaii well. In the evening north winds were 30 kts with seas 19 ft at 38.5N 168W aimed south. On Wed AM (3/16) fetch swept east and faded from 25 kts with seas 17 ft at 38N 163W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch was gone. Low odds of small windswell for Hawaii.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Fri AM (4/18) reaching 4.2 ft @ 12 secs at sunrise (5.0 ft). Swell fading through the day. Windswell fading Sat AM (4/19) from 2.7 ft @ 10-11 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell direction: 330-340 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Fri AM (4/18) northwest winds to be 20 kts off the coast of North CA and northwest 10 kts nearshore and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10-15 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. Minimal windswell holding. No precip forecast.
Sat AM (4/19) a gradient builds with northwest winds 25 kts for most of North CA early and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds build to 25-30 kts for most of North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. Windswell building some. No precip forecast.
Sun AM (4/20) northwest winds to be 30 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts for the rest of North CA and 5-10 kts for all of Central CA. No change in the afternoon. Windswell holding. No precip forecast.
Mon AM (4/21) more of the same is forecast with northwest winds 25-30 kts for most of North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon no change is forecast but with northwest winds 15 kts for Central CA. Windswell holding. No precip forecast.
Tues AM (4/22) northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for all of North CA and 15 kts for Central CA early. No change in the afternoon but with northwest winds 15-20 kts for Central CA. Northwest windswell holding. No precip forecast.
Wed AM (4/23) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 20 kts for all of Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds fade from 20+ kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA windswell fading some.
Thurs AM (4/24) northwest winds to be 20 kts for all of North and Central CA. in the afternoon northwest wins to be 15 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. Windswell fading.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 0, 0, 3, and 20 inches all on 4/24-25 (but that is likely a fantasy of the model).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 8,500 ft 4/17-18 then rising to 10,500 ft late 4/18-4/22 falling to 9.500 ft 4/22 and holding beyond. Freeze levels at Mammoth dropping to 7-8,000 ft late 4/24 and beyond

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (4/17) the jetstream was tracking east under New Zealand at roughly 60S and weak then splitting at 170W with most energy continuing east at 120 kts across the South Pacific not obviously supporting trough development nor low pressure development. Over the next 72 hours winds to start building under New Zealand to 120 kts later Fri (4/18) and lifting east-northeast on Sat (4/19) over the Central South Pacific while building to 140 kts forming a generalized trough offering some support for gale formation and that trough becoming more pronounced on Sun (4/20) over the Southeast Pacific offering yet better support for gale formation before tracking east of the Southern CA swell window. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to start ridging south over the Central South Pacific Mon-Tues (4/22) offering no support for gale formation. But theoretically on Thurs (4/24) a new trough is to develop south of New Zealand being fed by 140 kts winds offering hope beyond.

Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale previously southeast of New Zealand was propagating northeast (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a secondary gael was also tracking northeast (see Secondary Gale below).

Another gale developed south of New Zealand on Wed AM (4/16) with 45 kts west-northwest winds and seas building from 30 ft at 64S 172E aimed mostly at Antarctica. In the evening fetch swept east-northeast with southwest winds 45-50 kts and seas 36 ft at 65.5S 167.5W aimed east. On Thurs AM (4/17) southwest winds built in coverage at 40-45 kts with seas 35 ft at 65.25S 153.75W aimed east. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 35-40 kts over a solid area aimed east with seas 34 ft at 64.25S 141.5W aimed east-northeast. Fetch fading Fri AM (4/18) from 35 kts with seas fading out from 29 ft at 64S 133W aimed east-northeast. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival late on Sun (4/27) building to 1.6 ft @ 19-20 sec later (3.0 ft). Swell building Mon (4/28) to 2.4 ft @ 17-18 secs later (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival late on Sun (4/27) building to 1.2 ft @ 20-21 sec later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building Mon (4/28) to 2.2 ft @ 18 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees

New Zealand Gale
A gale developed south of New Zealand Sun AM (4/13) tracking east with 50-55 kts southwest winds and seas 36 ft at 59S 176.75E aimed east-northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 50 kts tracking east with seas 39 ft at 59.25S 171W aimed east-northeast. Fetch is to fade some on Mon AM (4/14) from 45 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 37 ft at 57.75S 163W aimed east-northeast. In the evening west-southwest fetch was fading from 35 kts over decent sized area with seas fading from 33 ft at 55.75S 151.25W aimed east-northeast. The gale faded Tues AM (4/15) with west winds 30 kts and seas fading from 26 ft at 55S 142W aimed east.

Oahu: Expect sideband swell arrival on Mon (4/21) building to 1.1 ft @ 16-17 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell builds Tues (4/22) to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Wed (4/23) from 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (4/24) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (4/22) building to 1.2 ft @ 19 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building Wed (4/23) to 1.5 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell steady on Thurs (4/24) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (4/25) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 205 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (4/22) building to 1.0 ft @ 19 secs late (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell building Wed (4/23) to 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell steady on Thurs (4/24) at 2.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (4/25) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 203 degrees

Secondary Gale
A secondary gale formed directly behind Tues AM (3/15) producing southwest winds at 35-40 kts and seas 27 ft over a small area at 48S 153W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 40-45 kts in two area close together aimed well northeast with seas 29 ft at 48S 158W and 50S 142W. Fetch and seas faded out after that. Something to monitor relative to California down to South America.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (4/25) building to 1.2 ft @ 19 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell builds Sat (4/26) to 1.8 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (4/27) from 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fades Mon (4/28) from 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (4/25) building to 1.1 ft @ 20 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell builds Sat (4/26) to 1.7 ft @ 18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell builds Sun (4/27) to 2.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fades Mon (4/28) from 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing Fri AM (4/18) in the deep Southwest Pacific under New Zealand with 45 kt west winds and seas 32 ft at 66S 172E aimed east-northeast. In the evening the gale is to lift east-northeast with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas 35 ft at 65.25S 167W. On Sat AM (4/19) southwest winds to build in coverage at 35-40 kts with seas 31 ft at 65.75S 156W aimed east-northeast. In the evening a broad fetch of southwest winds are to be over the Southeast Pacific at 35-40 kts with seas 33 ft at 63.25S 150W aimed east-northeast. The gale to lift northeast Sun AM (4/20) with 35-40 kts southwest winds and seas 33 ft at 59S 135W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be moving up to the east birder of the Southern CA swell window with south winds 35+ kts and seas 32 ft at 58S 122.5W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (4/21) south fetch to be 40 kts on the eastern edge of the SCal swell window with 31 ft seas at 57S 123W aimed north. Something to monitor.

Modoki La Nina Collapsing
Active MJO Poised To Kill It
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and expected to start fading beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/16) 5 day average winds were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak west over the East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/17) Today modest to moderate east anomalies were filling most of the KWGA with weak west anomalies over the far West KWGA. The forecast indicates east anomalies weakening while holding over the KWGA till 4/19 then they start fading while moving east to the East KWGA through 4/23 while weak to modest west anomalies start moving east over the KWGA as early as 4/19 assertively moving over and filling the the West KWGA by 4/25 and holding. Strong west anomalies to start building over the West KWGA 4/28 and holding through the end of the model run. La Nina is all but gone.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (4/16) Currently a neutral to weak Active MJO (wet air) was filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Active MJO building some and continuing on day 10 then fading to neutral on day 15 of the model run with a weak Inactive MJO (dry air) taking its place. The Dynamic model indicates the same thing but with the Active Phase (wet air) stronger on day 10 and building some on day 15 at moderate status.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (4/17) - The models depict the Active Phase was very weak over the West Pacific. The statistic model has it moving from the West Pacific to the East Pacific over the next 2 weeks and very weak. The dynamic model depicts it moving to the East Pacific holding at weak status 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/17) This model depicts a strong Active Phase (wet air) was between the East Maritime Continent and the West KWGA and forecast filling the KWGA while tracking east through 5/2. After that a moderate Inactive Phase (dry air) is to set up over the KWGA 5/12 filling it through the last day of the model run on 5/25 while tracking east.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/16) Today modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA. East anomalies are forecast holding for the next 3 days then moving fast east starting 4/19 moving to 155E and points east of there while west anomalies push east into the West KWGA filling 3/4ths of the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 5/14. No Active or Inactive contours are forecast. East anomalies are to be fading limited to points east of 150E.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/17) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today west anomalies were in the far West KWGA but modest east anomalies filling most of the KWGA with no Active or Inactive contours indicted. West anomalies are to pushing east filling the KWGA 4/21 with east anomalies gone. The Active Phase is to set up 4/22 with west anomalies filling the KWGA and in control as the Active Phase and it's contours fade on 5/19. A weak Inactive MJO is forecast starting in the west 5/4 holding over the KWGA through 6/21 but with west anomalies fully in control of KWGA if not most of the Equatorial Pacific. An Active Phase to follow in the west on 6/18 tracking over the KWGA through the end of the model run with west anomalies building to strong status over the dateline starting. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (started 4/28/24) with one contour and is to start easing east into the West Pacific 6/4 and reaching the dateline at the end of the model run. The high pressure bias was over the dateline with 3 contours. The third is to fade 4/29 and the second 5/15. The third is to be east of the KWGA on 6/5. This suggests La Nina is poised to start dissipate in the atmosphere by late-April.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/17) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was back and steady at 167E. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded from 177E to 170E but was now solid moving east to 177W. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador and reasonably solid in depth over all the width of the equatorial Pacific if not building in density in the east with a 28 deg contour now appearing there. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West Pacific and +4 degs in the East Pacific. A pocket of cooler anomalies at -2 degs were spread between 160W to 115W 125 meters down. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/13 indicates cool anomalies were weakly filling the the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) from 156E east to 130W but only -0.5 to -1.0 degs and getting warmer. Warm anomalies were building at depth in the east. Warm anomalies were also filling the area west of the dateline and building while steady at 160W. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/13) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were 0-5 cms above normal from Ecuador to 145W and negative at only -5 cms from 150W west to 170W with 2 pockets to 15 to 20 cms straddling the equator at 155W while weakening. It appears the cool pool is fading and moving west. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (4/13) the cool pool was collapsing if not gone with one last remnant between 153W-160W at.-0.5 degs below normal and shrinking in size. Weak warm anomalies were between Ecuador to 145W. A La Nina pattern is all but gone. Much warmer waters were building in the west in coverage reaching east to 175W and near +2 degs.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/16) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was all but gone over the West Equatorial Pacific between 140W to 165E. Cool anomalies were streaming off the California coast falling southwest and feeding this pool outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system. Warm anomalies were over the East Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 125W but losing density. This looks like a Modoki La Nina (westward displaced) and fading with a very El Nino like pattern setting up off Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/16): Temps were cooling in a broad pocket from Ecuador to 90W. Moderate warming was on the equator from 115W to 160W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/17) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were falling hard at +0.580 after falling to +0.409 (3/23) after peaking at +1.5 on 3/4. Temps started warming steadily from -0.962 on 1/28. Previously temps held near -0.5 degs starting 11/30. They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/17) Today's temps were steady -0.267 after fading to -0.399 (3/21) fueled by a building Inactive MJO, and that after after peaking at +0.262 (slightly warm) on 3/14 and started rising on 1/25 from -1.5 degs after peaking at -1.106 (1/18) and had been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were negative at -0.1 week of 4/2 and 4/9. Previously temps were +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27).
Monthly Data is -0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan, -0.60 Dec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.90 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND), -0.81 (SON), -0.75 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.50 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.25 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.87 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.46 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.50 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb. Then temps started fading down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec 2024, -0.75 in Jan 2025 and -0.6 in Feb. Temp unexpectedly rose to +0.075 degs in March. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasted, including Jan, Feb and March 2025.
Forecast (4/17) - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast). Temps to rise to +0.05 in July and rising gradually to +0.20 degs in Dec and +0.5 in Jan 2026. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. In all it looks like we're moving out of a weak La Nina to a neutral pattern.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.196 (up from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 10th month below neutral since El Nino faded. Temps to rise slightly to -0.090 degs in June-July-Aug. The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here to -0.046 JJA then falling to -0.320 SON then rising some to -0.257 at the end of the model run on NDJ. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to -0.094 JJA dropping to -0.290 OND and up to -0.282 NDJ. In other words, we are well past the peak of La Nina now moving fast to ENSO neutral. The models generally suggests a return to near neutral biased slightly cool next Fall.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (4/17) the Daily Index was negative at -10.74 and falling the last 2 days but otherwise steadily positive the past month.
The 30 day average was falling at +8.98 and has been generally steady the last month, through still weakly in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was falling at +8.45 and weakly in La Nina territory.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and now -1.32 in Jan 2025, -1.45 in Feb and -1.12 in March. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.